Markets Closing within 365 Days (fetched 2025-05-18 09:06 UTC)

• Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3? — closes 2025-05-18 11:59 UTC
• 2025 ATP Tour Men's Tennis Matches 🎾 — closes 2025-05-18 13:25 UTC
• Who am I? (guessing game) — closes 2025-05-18 13:45 UTC
• Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 79 and 80? — closes 2025-05-18 15:50 UTC
• How many hours will I work this week? — closes 2025-05-18 16:42 UTC
• Will more than five people be successfully prosecuted for the viral Chase bank check fraud? — closes 2025-05-18 20:59 UTC
• What will be manifolds favorite song in Eurovision 2025? — closes 2025-05-18 22:01 UTC
• Do women prefer sex to be more serious than men do? — closes 2025-05-18 23:06 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Internazionali BNL d'Italia (Rome ATP 1000)? — closes 2025-05-18 23:59 UTC
• Will Black Smoke come from the Papal Conclave on May 18? — closes 2025-05-18 23:59 UTC
• Will Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te attend the inauguration mass of the next Pope? — closes 2025-05-18 23:59 UTC
• Omar Marmoush total goal contributions (goals + assists) in EPL 2024-25 season — closes 2025-05-19 00:00 UTC
• Will Erling Haaland win the 2024/25 Premier League Golden Boot? — closes 2025-05-19 00:00 UTC
• This market has self-defining resolution criteria — closes 2025-05-19 01:59 UTC
• 🏅2025 PGA Championship Head-to-Head (H2H) Golfer Markets (LIVE) — closes 2025-05-19 02:59 UTC
• Golf: Who will win the 2025 PGA Championship? — closes 2025-05-19 03:59 UTC
• Daily coinflip — closes 2025-05-19 03:59 UTC
• What will be true of the xkcd comics for May 19th-May 23rd? — closes 2025-05-19 03:59 UTC
• Will I actually pay out Ṁ8,000 if the linked market resolves NO? — closes 2025-05-19 05:00 UTC
• The percent of Boba Tea drinkers in Cupertino with Chinese names goes up in the year to May 2025 — closes 2025-05-19 06:59 UTC
• Will BASH be delayed by an hour or more — closes 2025-05-19 08:36 UTC
• Boxers vs Briefs — closes 2025-05-19 10:11 UTC
• [Short fuse] Will Trump announce that the US will recognize Palestine as a state by the end of this week? — closes 2025-05-19 13:41 UTC
• Forks or Spoons? — closes 2025-05-19 16:59 UTC
• Do codon tables in ribosomes count as tables? — closes 2025-05-19 18:29 UTC
• 2025 Poland's Presidential Election: Who will advance to the second round? — closes 2025-05-19 18:29 UTC
• Will my Newark flights be delayed/cancelled? — closes 2025-05-19 19:33 UTC
• Please dont vote, this poll will be remade! — closes 2025-05-19 21:59 UTC
• What's your favorite song in Eurovision 2025? — closes 2025-05-19 21:59 UTC
• Google I/O 2025 Prop Bets! — closes 2025-05-19 21:59 UTC
• Hołownia vs Mentzen - 2025 Polish presidential election — closes 2025-05-19 22:59 UTC
• Who will win the women’s Swedish cup (football) in 2025 — closes 2025-05-19 22:59 UTC
• Will Manchester United Finish within 10 points of the Premier League Champions in 2024/25 season? — closes 2025-05-19 22:59 UTC
• ENSO El Nino / La Nina predictions — closes 2025-05-19 22:59 UTC
• Who will have the younger biological age, Stephen @SG or James @JamesGrugett? — closes 2025-05-19 22:59 UTC
• money on the ground or family artifact on the ground — closes 2025-05-19 23:03 UTC
• Will the Exeter Investment Society meet next Monday, on May 19, 2025? — closes 2025-05-19 23:13 UTC
• How many Manifolders will I run into at PyCon this weekend? — closes 2025-05-19 23:59 UTC
• Daily Trump impeachment markets - By which week will Trump be impeached for a third time? (April 20 - May 17) — closes 2025-05-19 23:59 UTC
• How many seats will the Greens win in the 2025 Australian Federal Election? — closes 2025-05-19 23:59 UTC
• Reserve Bank of Australia cuts rates by 50+ basis points at next meeting? — closes 2025-05-19 23:59 UTC
• Which party/alliance will win the most votes in the next Portuguese legislative election? — closes 2025-05-20 00:33 UTC
• Who am I thinking of? (guessing game) — closes 2025-05-20 03:57 UTC
• iran nuclear deal in 2 months — closes 2025-05-20 03:59 UTC
• coin flip — closes 2025-05-20 04:59 UTC
• Who is responsible for the large explosions on 4/19 at the Kalso military base near Baghdad, used by the Iraqi PMF? — closes 2025-05-20 06:59 UTC
• Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is "by far [his] biggest yet"? (Resolves to poll) — closes 2025-05-20 06:59 UTC
• The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom MEGAMARKET — closes 2025-05-20 14:29 UTC
• What will be the lowest price Whole Genome Sequencing consumer product in one year (May 2025)? — closes 2025-05-20 15:59 UTC
• Do all cyclohexane formations count as one chair or 1.7* 10^39 (the figure quoted) chairs? (new poll) — closes 2025-05-20 18:29 UTC
• Premier League 2025 Matchweek 37: How many goals? — closes 2025-05-20 19:36 UTC
• Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 203 and 204? — closes 2025-05-20 20:04 UTC
• How many % will the other candidates for the President of Poland have? — closes 2025-05-20 22:21 UTC
• Who will win the European Golden Boot in the 2024/2025 season? — closes 2025-05-20 22:59 UTC
• MOP cutoffs at least 33? — closes 2025-05-20 22:59 UTC
• Will an Italian tennis player win a title at the 2025 Italian Open? — closes 2025-05-20 22:59 UTC
• Conditional on the US introducing AI safety regulations, will China "win the AI race"? — closes 2025-05-20 22:59 UTC
• Will I believe in 100 days that the $100 billion statement by Elon Musk is accurate? — closes 2025-05-20 22:59 UTC
• Which side will win Europa League? — closes 2025-05-20 23:59 UTC
• Will I get COVID by June 9? — closes 2025-05-20 23:59 UTC
• Will the United States send more than the 300 detainees by May 20th to Al Salvadors CECOT? — closes 2025-05-20 23:59 UTC
• Will MrBeast reach 400 million subscribers before June 2025? — closes 2025-05-20 23:59 UTC
• Number of teams among OKC, CLE, and BOS that make the 2025 NBA conference finals — closes 2025-05-21 00:00 UTC
• Philippine government announces new film industry support initiatives by May 2025 — closes 2025-05-21 00:00 UTC
• Will this market close between 45% and 55%? — closes 2025-05-21 01:44 UTC
• What will Trump's "very big announcement" involve? — closes 2025-05-21 03:15 UTC
• How many attendees for Vancouver's 29th Taco Tuesday? — closes 2025-05-21 03:55 UTC
• Will Lisa Murkowski stop caucusing with the Republican Party by 2029? — closes 2025-05-21 03:59 UTC
• Will the average price of gasoline as of January 20th, 2025 increase by 25% or more by May 20th, 2025? — closes 2025-05-21 03:59 UTC
• Who will win the Democratic Primary Election for Mayor of Pittsburgh on May 25, 2025? — closes 2025-05-21 03:59 UTC
• Chocolate or Vanilla — closes 2025-05-21 04:59 UTC
• Who will win melee singles at Full House 2025? — closes 2025-05-21 06:59 UTC
• JIM VERSUS STEVE — closes 2025-05-21 06:59 UTC
• No new experimental evidence for Roger Penrose's Orchestrated Objective Reduction theory by 2025-05-20 — closes 2025-05-21 06:59 UTC
• Will the name "San Francisco Bay Oakland International Airport" prevail? — closes 2025-05-21 06:59 UTC
• Will I make PROMYS? — closes 2025-05-21 06:59 UTC
• Trump approval rating 44.5% or higher on May 20th? — closes 2025-05-21 06:59 UTC
• Who am I thinking of? (guessing game) — closes 2025-05-21 09:29 UTC
• Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? — closes 2025-05-21 15:59 UTC
• Will I use my 3d printer within a week? — closes 2025-05-21 16:56 UTC
• Will Antony win two UEFA trophies this season? — closes 2025-05-21 19:00 UTC
• Concrete evidence of Abrego Garcia's MS-13 affiliation before May 21, 2025 — closes 2025-05-21 23:59 UTC
• English Premier League 2024-25 Matchweek 37 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏟️⚽️ All Fixtures — closes 2025-05-21 23:59 UTC
• Next Set of Buffs/Nerfs in Hearthstone the Emerald Dream — closes 2025-05-21 23:59 UTC
• Will Twitch.tv implement a 100 hour storage limit on 19 May 2025? (twitch) — closes 2025-05-21 23:59 UTC
• Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? ⚽|🏆 Europa League Final — closes 2025-05-22 00:17 UTC
• Who will win Survivor 48? — closes 2025-05-22 02:40 UTC
• Who will win the Europa League? — closes 2025-05-22 03:59 UTC
• Shasta skiing forecast — closes 2025-05-22 04:34 UTC
• Bitcoin above $104K on May 21? — closes 2025-05-22 06:59 UTC
• When will I have 83 Instagram followers? — closes 2025-05-22 14:24 UTC
• My Estradiol levels after reducing my dosage? — closes 2025-05-22 15:07 UTC
• What city will host the first Enhanced Games? — closes 2025-05-22 15:50 UTC
• Who am I thinking of? [Ṁ250 prize!] — closes 2025-05-22 16:00 UTC
• Palme d'Or Winner? (Cannes 2025) — closes 2025-05-22 23:59 UTC
• Will India invade Pakistan before July? — closes 2025-05-22 23:59 UTC
• Will there be an odd number of unique traders in this market upon resolution? — closes 2025-05-23 02:48 UTC
• How many markets would you pay $100 for to put up on Polymarket over the course of a year? — closes 2025-05-23 06:59 UTC
• Hey, Will INDIA declare ceasefire? — closes 2025-05-23 12:25 UTC
• Manchester city vs Fulham: premier league — closes 2025-05-23 22:07 UTC
• Will Threads have >10M DAUs in two years? — closes 2025-05-23 23:59 UTC
• Will Threads have >1M DAUs in two years? — closes 2025-05-23 23:59 UTC
• Chelsea vs Nottm Forest: premier league — closes 2025-05-23 23:59 UTC
• Will Threads have >100k DAUs in two years? — closes 2025-05-23 23:59 UTC
• Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona: La liga — closes 2025-05-23 23:59 UTC
• Will Threads be popular, in my experience over the next two years? — closes 2025-05-23 23:59 UTC
• Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad — closes 2025-05-23 23:59 UTC
• Chess: Winner of the 2025 CCT Chess.com Classic May 18-23? — closes 2025-05-24 01:37 UTC
• S&P 500 above $6000 on May 23? — closes 2025-05-24 01:59 UTC
• Should I read "Abundance"? — closes 2025-05-24 03:59 UTC
• Silver medal cutoff USAMO 2025? — closes 2025-05-24 04:00 UTC
• Dare Ye Coin Flip? — closes 2025-05-24 06:59 UTC
• Who am I thinking of? (guessing game) [💣SHORT FUSE] — closes 2025-05-24 12:04 UTC
• test — closes 2025-05-24 18:29 UTC
• 2024/2025 NBA regular season prop bets — closes 2025-05-24 20:59 UTC
• How well are things going with AI safety? — closes 2025-05-24 21:59 UTC
• Which team will win the EFL Championship playoffs in 2025? — closes 2025-05-24 22:59 UTC
• Will Arsenal "fumble" the 2024/2025 PL title? — closes 2025-05-24 23:59 UTC
• Which country will win the 2025 IIHF World Championship (ice hockey)? — closes 2025-05-24 23:59 UTC
• Bolsonaro sentenced (unappealably) to prison or house by May 25, 2025 — closes 2025-05-25 00:00 UTC
• Will my net worth be above Ṁ200,000 in a week? — closes 2025-05-25 01:00 UTC
• Who will win the Italy Serie A soccer championship for the 2024/2025 season? — closes 2025-05-25 02:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Science Olympiad National Tournament [Division C]? — closes 2025-05-25 03:59 UTC
• Did Israel strike the UNRWA facility in Gaza? — closes 2025-05-25 03:59 UTC
• Will Chuck Grassley Die Before Joe Biden? — closes 2025-05-25 03:59 UTC
• Who will win the Corteva Enterprise Award at the 2025 Science Olympiad National Tournament [Division C]? — closes 2025-05-25 04:59 UTC
• What is your personal prior for Manifold still being around in 2030? — closes 2025-05-25 06:59 UTC
• Bitcoin above $104K on May 24? — closes 2025-05-25 06:59 UTC
• Which of the following Premier League managers will leave during the 24-25 season? — closes 2025-05-25 06:59 UTC
• Will the 2025 European power outage be attributed to sabotage by May 25, 2025? — closes 2025-05-25 13:37 UTC
• After the next Australian federal election, will any party control a majority of the seats in the Senate? — closes 2025-05-25 14:29 UTC
• After the next Australian federal election, will the crossbench in the Senate be larger than after the last election? — closes 2025-05-25 14:29 UTC
• Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1149 and 1150? — closes 2025-05-25 15:51 UTC
• Will the medians of the bids on this question exceed 1? — closes 2025-05-25 20:01 UTC
• Will an independent RCT study evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size greater than 0.5? — closes 2025-05-25 20:59 UTC
• Which team will win the EuroLeague? — closes 2025-05-25 21:59 UTC
• Who will win the Pichichi Award as the 2024/25 La Liga top scorer? — closes 2025-05-25 21:59 UTC
• Will Gareth Southgate be appointed to a Premier League job in 2024/25? — closes 2025-05-25 22:59 UTC
• Which team will win the EFL League One playoffs in 2025? — closes 2025-05-25 22:59 UTC
• Who will win the Premier League 2024/25 Golden Boot? — closes 2025-05-25 22:59 UTC
• How many times did I (Anna Cherry) make Chad Carbone climax in our first video together? — closes 2025-05-25 22:59 UTC
• Conditional on such a study being run, will an independent RCT evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size equal to or greater than 0.3? — closes 2025-05-25 22:59 UTC
• Premier League 2024/5 - Will Erling Haaland score 30+ league goals? — closes 2025-05-25 22:59 UTC
• Who will win the Golden Boot (top scorer) in the Premier League 2024/5? — closes 2025-05-25 22:59 UTC
• Will Real Betis qualify for the 2025-26 Champions League? — closes 2025-05-25 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the May 2025 grand sumo tournament? — closes 2025-05-25 23:59 UTC
• ⚽🏆 In which European competition will Juventus compete in the 25/26 season? — closes 2025-05-25 23:59 UTC
• Will Arsenal finish second in the premier league 2024-2025? — closes 2025-05-25 23:59 UTC
• Will Manchester City finish in the top five of the Premier League table? — closes 2025-05-26 03:59 UTC
• Will Napoli win the 2024/25 Serie A? — closes 2025-05-26 03:59 UTC
• Who will win Serie A ‘24-‘25 — closes 2025-05-26 03:59 UTC
• Will Inter Milan win the 2024/25 Serie A? — closes 2025-05-26 03:59 UTC
• Who will win Premier League Golden Boot 2024/25? — closes 2025-05-26 04:59 UTC
• Will Raul Jimenez score more than 15 premier league goals at the end of the season? — closes 2025-05-26 06:59 UTC
• Premier League Top Scorer (golden boot) — closes 2025-05-26 06:59 UTC
• Will Dolton Illinois 'supermayor' Tiffany Henyard go to prison? — closes 2025-05-26 06:59 UTC
• Tits (bird) or ass (donkey)? — closes 2025-05-26 19:30 UTC
• Will Mohamed Salah get more than 380 points in the 2024/2025 Fantasy Premier League — closes 2025-05-26 20:59 UTC
• Which teams from La Liga will be relegated to La Liga 2? (2024-2025) — closes 2025-05-26 21:59 UTC
• Will Rasmus Højlund score over 15 Premier League goals in the 2024-25 season? — closes 2025-05-26 22:59 UTC
• Why has there never been a Muslim pope? — closes 2025-05-26 22:59 UTC
• Jerusalem forest fire fatalities before May 27, 2025? — closes 2025-05-26 23:00 UTC
• Which team will win the EFL League Two playoffs in 2025? — closes 2025-05-27 00:27 UTC
• Will Mohamed Salah have the most Premier League goal contributions in 2024/25? — closes 2025-05-27 03:59 UTC
• English Premier League 2024-25 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏟️⚽️| How many times will a player score at both ends this season? — closes 2025-05-27 03:59 UTC
• Where does Nottingham Forest finish in the 24-25 premier league campaign? — closes 2025-05-27 04:59 UTC
• Ukraine regains control of Crimea by October 22, 2025? — closes 2025-05-27 23:59 UTC
• Will at least 8 of Stephen Casper's 10 accomplishments for SAEs happen by 5/26/25? — closes 2025-05-28 03:59 UTC
• Non-Dairy Coin Flip — closes 2025-05-28 11:50 UTC
• Putin announced a unilateral ceasefire for May 9th. Will it hold? — closes 2025-05-28 12:07 UTC
• Portugal power outage confirmed as a cyber attack? — closes 2025-05-28 12:11 UTC
• How many days after September 1st will Manifold PR#759 be merged? (New market type: bounties!) — closes 2025-05-28 15:59 UTC
• How many days after September 1st will Manifold PR#785 be merged? (Allow editing of comments on a market) — closes 2025-05-28 15:59 UTC
• How many days will I keep up good sleep habits? — closes 2025-05-28 16:31 UTC
• Will Elon Musk buy Hasbro within 6 months? — closes 2025-05-28 16:59 UTC
• Who will win the UEFA Conference League 2024/5 — closes 2025-05-28 22:59 UTC
• Will Southwest Airlines start charging a fee for the first checked bag for flights booked on 28 May 2025? — closes 2025-05-29 04:59 UTC
• What will happen during the second run of Claude Plays Pokemon? — closes 2025-05-29 06:59 UTC
• Will any of trumps lawyers in the maralago documents case be sanctioned by the court before the end of May 2025? — closes 2025-05-29 06:59 UTC
• Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"? — closes 2025-05-29 06:59 UTC
• What caused the Spanish power blackout? — closes 2025-05-29 07:24 UTC
• Our house usable before LessOnline starts? — closes 2025-05-29 08:14 UTC
• Will CreepCast’s “Spire In The Woods”episode be voluntarily or involuntarily removed from YouTube? — closes 2025-05-29 09:40 UTC
• Was electric grid crash of Iberian peninsula caused by: — closes 2025-05-29 09:45 UTC
• Trump will return to gold standard — closes 2025-05-29 13:48 UTC
• What will be the Metacritic score for Elden Ring Nightreign, two weeks after release? — closes 2025-05-29 13:59 UTC
• Have we achieved AGI already? — closes 2025-05-29 15:59 UTC
• Will I get higher than 58.32 on Assessment 4 for Signal and Systems — closes 2025-05-29 18:03 UTC
• Public news that a Roman Catholic Cleric has bet on the papacy or participated on a prediction market on it. — closes 2025-05-29 18:36 UTC
• The maximum number of guilty people it is worth letting go free rather than imprisoning one innocent and virtuous person — closes 2025-05-29 21:59 UTC
• Who will win IPL 2025 — closes 2025-05-29 23:59 UTC
• What will be Claude 4's maximum context length when released? — closes 2025-05-30 00:00 UTC
• Will billionaire Truong My Lan find and pay ~$9 billion in time to save her own life? — closes 2025-05-30 03:59 UTC
• As a trans woman, would I regret the decision to dump my boyfriend to flee the United States? — closes 2025-05-30 04:10 UTC
• Quadratic Equation — closes 2025-05-30 05:17 UTC
• Will Gary Patterson be Baylor's football coach for the 2025 season? — closes 2025-05-30 05:59 UTC
• Will Trump say "Scam Altman" before June? — closes 2025-05-30 06:59 UTC
• Will Grok 3.5 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard? — closes 2025-05-30 11:11 UTC
• Will there be 500 or more Notifiable Data Breaches reported in Australia between 1 July and 31 December 2024? — closes 2025-05-30 13:59 UTC
• What will be confirmed about the school shooting at Madison, Wisconsin? [Add Answers] — closes 2025-05-30 20:59 UTC
• Will Jeffrey Goldberg be fired from The Atlantic by the end of May 2025? — closes 2025-05-30 21:00 UTC
• Dream wins against Daquavis? — closes 2025-05-30 21:29 UTC
• Will the showrunner.xyz streaming platform reach 100,000 monthly active users by May 30, 2025? — closes 2025-05-30 21:59 UTC
• Will there be a third DLC for Pokémon Scarlet/Violet? — closes 2025-05-30 22:59 UTC
• Civil lawsuit filed against $TRUMP memecoin by May 31st, 2025 — closes 2025-05-30 23:00 UTC
• Will there be an earthquake in germany in June 2025 with a magnitude (Richter Scale) of 4.0 or more? — closes 2025-05-30 23:59 UTC
• Houthi missile hits Israeli territory before May 31, 2025 — closes 2025-05-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Dutton be the leader of the LNP at the end of May — closes 2025-05-30 23:59 UTC
• How much will Apple fall from Dec 2024 peak to 52 week low at end of May 2025? — closes 2025-05-30 23:59 UTC
• Will anyone with a net worth below $1 Million Mana win Masters League in May? (Season 25) — closes 2025-05-30 23:59 UTC
• Will I complete the game I'm working on by the end of this month? — closes 2025-05-30 23:59 UTC
• Will VWRP reach all time high this month? — closes 2025-05-30 23:59 UTC
• "Tioga Pass 120 open by May 29, 2025?" — closes 2025-05-30 23:59 UTC
• Will the 10 year treasury yield be higher on May 30, 2025 than on December 31, 2024? — closes 2025-05-30 23:59 UTC
• Major e-commerce platform blocks Honey extension before June 2025 — closes 2025-05-31 00:00 UTC
• GPT-5 released to the public by May 30, 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 00:00 UTC
• Will Russia control Pokrovsk by May 31st, 2025 — closes 2025-05-31 00:00 UTC
• Class action lawsuit filed against Hawk Tuah team receives court certification by June 2025 — closes 2025-05-31 00:00 UTC
• How many companies will hold at least 1,000 bitcoin on their balance sheets by May 31, 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 00:00 UTC
• Wolves or Pacers in 2025 NBA Finals? — closes 2025-05-31 03:21 UTC
• Will a new version of the X-Files TV show air by September 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 03:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Giro d'Italia? — closes 2025-05-31 03:59 UTC
• Xiaomi will release a foldable smartphone with a durable hinge that can withstand over 1 million folds by 2025 — closes 2025-05-31 04:00 UTC
• Will CGP Grey's 1 billion views Q&A video answer any question about trains? — closes 2025-05-31 04:00 UTC
• Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher than the previous day? — closes 2025-05-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by Jun 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Destiny talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy before July 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 06:59 UTC
• How many people will attend LessOnline 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 06:59 UTC
• Premier League 2024-2025 end of season ranking, 1-20 — closes 2025-05-31 06:59 UTC
• Will I graduate from high school? — closes 2025-05-31 06:59 UTC
• Will the ISU revoke its ban on Russian & Byelorussian Athletes by the end of the 24-25 season? — closes 2025-05-31 06:59 UTC
• Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court? — closes 2025-05-31 07:00 UTC
• Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day in May? — closes 2025-05-31 10:59 UTC
• Will I think the all-time profit leaderboard calculations are bugless, in may? — closes 2025-05-31 11:25 UTC
• Nathan young asks Nathan Young asks Musk out? — closes 2025-05-31 11:55 UTC
• Will PSG will the 2024/25 Champions League — closes 2025-05-31 13:59 UTC
• Which team will win the Champions League 2024/25 — closes 2025-05-31 13:59 UTC
• Will a party leader resign from position as leader and their seat as a result of the 2025 Australian Federal Election? — closes 2025-05-31 13:59 UTC
• Will Rootclaim win their $1,000,000 Covid vaccine debate with Steve Kirsch? — closes 2025-05-31 14:29 UTC
• Will I pass my lv 2 Chinese language placement exam? — closes 2025-05-31 16:21 UTC
• Which answer should I choose? — closes 2025-05-31 17:48 UTC
• The Boys Season 5 Death Pool — closes 2025-05-31 18:29 UTC
• Will X/Twitter Payments (peer to peer) be launched before (month)? Unlinked market — closes 2025-05-31 18:59 UTC
• Will François Bayrou’s government face a successful vote of non-confidence before June 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 21:59 UTC
• How many attendees will EAGxNordics '25 recieve — closes 2025-05-31 21:59 UTC
• Is Hollow Knight: Silksong a prequel? — closes 2025-05-31 21:59 UTC
• Was a 'rare atmospheric phenomenon' behind the Spanish power blackout? — closes 2025-05-31 21:59 UTC
• Finland undersea cable break - cause will be: — closes 2025-05-31 21:59 UTC
• Depending on who the next Pope is, will he be based? — closes 2025-05-31 21:59 UTC
• Will people become insane because we make AI too human-like? (resolves in 1 year) — closes 2025-05-31 21:59 UTC
• [POLAND] Will the winner of presidential elections in 2025 get less than 51% of votes in the runoff? — closes 2025-05-31 21:59 UTC
• Will President Zelenskyy publicly apologize to President Trump by the end of May 2025? (forked market) — closes 2025-05-31 21:59 UTC
• Which team will win ARML 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 22:00 UTC
• Will a new zoonotic pathogen spillover in 2024 — closes 2025-05-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will win the Golden Boot (top scorer) in the La Liga 2024/5? — closes 2025-05-31 22:59 UTC
• Harvard loses ability to enroll international students? — closes 2025-05-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will be the de facto leader of Bangladesh at the end of May 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Battery Electric cars outsell Internal Combustion Engines in Great Britain before May 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 22:59 UTC
• Will USDC-issuer Circle tentatively accept an acquisition offer from Ripple before 1 June? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Best Model on AiderBench by end of May — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be photographed wearing a suit before June 1st, 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I reach Grandmaster rank in Risk: Global Domination, in May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Poilievre resigns as CPC leader by end of May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a gaza ceasefire announcement in May 2025? 🇮🇱🇵🇸 — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Which team will win the DFB Cup 2024/2025? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• I go on at least one date before June 1, 2025 — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in May 2025 according to Manifold? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• will the SPX / S&P 500 reach ATH by end of May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• USS Harry S. Truman loses third fighter jet by end of May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Bitcoin (BTC) all time high in May 2025? ($109,588) — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• How will i perform on my final exams? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Dow close below 36,000 before June? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Largest company end of May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I receive 50,000 Mana in donations by June 1st, 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Ethereum (ETH) reach $2,900 in May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Which MLB team will have the most 2025 regular season wins by the end of May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Babcock International (BAB.L) up 10% by May 31, 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Nvidia be blocked from selling H20 GPUs to China at the end of May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Peter Dutton loses his seat in the 2025 election? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• May 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• House brings broad tariff control bill to floor by end of May 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• This question have 29+ traders by June 1? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• will the SPX / S&P 500 reach 6000 by end of May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Trump moves the market before June? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam visit the US before June 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• US attacks Iranian soil by the end of May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• How much will I walk in April+May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I reach intermediate rank in Risk: Global Domination, in May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• will I sleep before midnight any day of MOP? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I finish painting my home in May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• How many successful SpaceX launches in May 2025 UTC — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Trump attempts to revoke Good Ventures/Open Philanthropy's tax-exempt status by 5/31/25? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Kanye launch a coin in May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I do chores for 25+ minutes daily until June? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be 50 or more strong (EF2+) tornadoes in the continental US During May 2025. — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Best Model on AiderBench by end of May — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• What will happen relating to the India / Pakistan conflict in May 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• [Add options] What will be the best Manifold meme posted in this market's comments in May 2025 according to Manifold? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• How many times will @steveskolowsk2 tweet before June? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• US implements 100% tariff on foreign-made films by May 31, 2025? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Which gatcha game will have the highest revenue in May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Trump questions legitimacy of Canadian elections by the end of May? — closes 2025-05-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US administration attempt to shut down Starlink in Ukraine before June 1st, 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 00:00 UTC
• Bluesky's daily active users exceed 25% of X's daily active users by June 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 00:00 UTC
• OpenAI's valuation decreases by 10%+ following Ann Altman lawsuit by June 1, 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 00:00 UTC
• Barron Trump announces plans to run for political office before June 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Jordan accept >2000 Gaza refugees under Trump's plan by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 00:00 UTC
• Sam Altman takes temporary leave of absence from OpenAI before June 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 00:00 UTC
• I get a girlfriend by June 1st 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Valve release the new Steam Controller 2 before June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 00:00 UTC
• Danielle Smith no longer UCP leader before June 1, 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 00:00 UTC
• Will PSG beat Inter? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final — closes 2025-06-01 00:13 UTC
• 2025 Indian Premier League Winner — closes 2025-06-01 00:59 UTC
• IPL 2025 Most Valuable Player [Cricinfo] (Add answers) — closes 2025-06-01 00:59 UTC
• Will Manifold have a numerical market type by June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 01:51 UTC
• What will my Manifold credit score be at the end of May? — closes 2025-06-01 02:00 UTC
• Who will win Masters Season 25? — closes 2025-06-01 03:30 UTC
• Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Friend AI wearable device before the end of May? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Character AI be found responsible for teenager's suicide? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• What restaurants in SF will Tetra like, if she goes to them? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Slay the Spire 2 be playable in Steam Early Access by the end of May 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Which teams will qualify for Europe? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will there be an Ethereum fork, with the most valuable Ethereum chain, aimed at reversing the Bybit hack before 1 June? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• What will be the outcome of the NJ vs Norcross trial? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Alexander Vindman sue Elon Musk for defamation by the end of May 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• What will be the market cap rank of the top Chinese semiconductor company on May 31, 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• "Doom: The Dark Ages" OpenCritic score? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Who will win NBA MVP for the 2024-25 regular season? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will there be a decision issued in the USA vs Adobe lawsuit by the end of May 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the AFGE lawsuit to stop DOGE access to treasury data succeed? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Pep Guardiola sacked this season? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Do you support the Sheinbaum administration? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will another Banjo Kazooie game be released or announced before June 1st 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• 🌼What will happen in May 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will any player break Lewandowski's record (41 Bundesliga goals) this season? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Destiny surpass Hasan in YouTube subscribers before he goes on Joe Rogan? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Which Pokémon will gain a new Mega Evolution when Pokemon Legends: Z-A is released? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Which AP Subject Test for May 2025 will have the most students get the lowest score on it? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Noboa complete his term as president of Ecuador? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Which company has best AI model end of May? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will I finish Marcus Aurelius's Meditations by the end of May? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Should this market about Luigi Mangione have resolved N/A? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the AI Safety Clock reach 21 minutes to midnight by May 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will there be a decision issued in the NJ vs Norcross lawsuit by the end of May 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Champions League Final Prop Bets ⚽|🏆 (LIVE!) — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will I be hit by a bicycle or scooter in Providence, RI before June 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the "April economic numbers" be "falsified or delayed"? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Who will be the next HUD secretary? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will anyone be "Leader of the Democratic Party" in the next Suffolk/USA Today poll? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the combined market cap of Canadian companies exceed the market cap of individual US companies on May 31, 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the NYC subway still report an On-time Performance of >=80% at the end of May 2025? (overall 12-month average) — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the US Congress pass 2 or more bills in May 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 03:59 UTC
• If I host a costume party in May, how many people will attend? — closes 2025-06-01 04:59 UTC
• NHL 🏒 Playoff Matches — closes 2025-06-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Eric Adams run for re-election as mayor of NYC? — closes 2025-06-01 04:59 UTC
• What (if any) crime will Shayne Coplan be charged with? — closes 2025-06-01 05:59 UTC
• How many people will be criminally charged in Ukraine for the murder of Irina Farion, former member of parliament? — closes 2025-06-01 05:59 UTC
• Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 06:29 UTC
• Will Apple have a significant change in business practices due the United States v. Apple trial? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• How long will the E Building bathrooms stay open? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Will global approval of the US decline in 2024, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Will I make USAPHO Camp? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Hylomorph House find a parrot and name it Alex K Chen by May 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• When will Sam Altman visit Mar-a-Lago? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• How much did DeepSeek-V3 cost to train? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• What will Death Stranding 2's metascore be 3 months after release? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Should the 1-99% bet limit be removed? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• New Manifold features launched before June 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• How many of my markets will have fewer than 5 traders at the end of May? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Will I replace my ambiguously-damaged AirPods case by the end of May? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• What areas of the ocean will have tropical activity before the start of hurricane season? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Who will learn to write first? My left hand or my robot hand? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Elizabeth May continue to be the Green Party candidate for Saanich-Gulf Islands in the next Canadian election? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 1% of the world electricity by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Which of the following will happen in Geometry P1&P2? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Will global approval of Germany decline in 2024, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Will global approval of China decline in 2024, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• How many people attended Burning Man in 2024? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Will global approval of Russia decline in 2024, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-06-01 06:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Polish presidential election? — closes 2025-06-01 07:00 UTC
• Will the value of the "IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE" index be >110 on June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 07:00 UTC
• (Another) Healthcare executive assassinated before June 1st 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 08:01 UTC
• 📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 12:22 UTC
• Nintendo cancels Project Rockstock (NSO playtest)? — closes 2025-06-01 12:46 UTC
• Will Trump mention David Souter during May 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 13:00 UTC
• Will the offside rule change proposed by Arsene Wenger be approved by IFAB for the 2025/26 season? — closes 2025-06-01 13:20 UTC
• What will be true of the number of traders (n) in this market at closure? — closes 2025-06-01 13:33 UTC
• Will I be a mana millionaire before May 31st? — closes 2025-06-01 13:59 UTC
• Will macOS Sequoia (15) be the last major version of macOS to support Macs with Intel CPU’s? — closes 2025-06-01 13:59 UTC
• Will any iPhone with the A12 SoC (iPhone XR, iPhone XS) receive updates to iOS 19 — closes 2025-06-01 13:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk's SpaceX Land Anything Fully Functional According on Mars during 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 14:29 UTC
• Will I switch to Cursor from PHPStorm by June 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 15:48 UTC
• Will Donald Trump physically meet Vladimir Putin in the months of March, April or May 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 15:59 UTC
• Will a human walk on the surface of Venus before the end of Season Five of For All Mankind? — closes 2025-06-01 15:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk issue any written apology or verbally apologize at anytime during the months of March, April, or May? — closes 2025-06-01 15:59 UTC
• Will a human visit the Jovian System before the end of Season Five of For All Mankind? — closes 2025-06-01 15:59 UTC
• Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by June 2025 — closes 2025-06-01 19:00 UTC
• Which features should I implement for Relevate in May? — closes 2025-06-01 19:04 UTC
• 6 months from now will I judge that LLMs had already peaked by Nov 2024? — closes 2025-06-01 20:59 UTC
• Will any other country provide air defence coverage for Ukraine, before June 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 20:59 UTC
• Will there be an anti-Trump protest march with at least 1m reported total participants in the US before 1st June 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 20:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin remain above 90000$ on June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 21:59 UTC
• When will Switch 2 reach consumers? — closes 2025-06-01 21:59 UTC
• By How Much Does Very Bright Light Improve Happiness in a Non-Blind Randomized Trial? — closes 2025-06-01 21:59 UTC
• Which country will the winner of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League come from? — closes 2025-06-01 21:59 UTC
• Who is the "undisclosed tech giant" behind the Immersed Visor? — closes 2025-06-01 21:59 UTC
• What will be the effective US tariff rate for Chinese imports in the second half of 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 21:59 UTC
• Which of these models providers will sign the EU AI Act Codes of Practice? — closes 2025-06-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Apple announce another Spatial Computer at or before WWDC 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 21:59 UTC
• When will Nintendo release the Switch 2? — closes 2025-06-01 22:59 UTC
• Trump administration port call fees? [multi] — closes 2025-06-01 22:59 UTC
• GTA VI will have a mission involving the launch of a spaceship (probably belonging to a satirical billionaire) — closes 2025-06-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Llama 4 Behemoth top the lmarena? — closes 2025-06-01 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a way to view your total received comment likes on your profile by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 22:59 UTC
• What will be announced as Jimmy Carter 's cause of death? — closes 2025-06-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Jadon Sancho win more trophies than Manchester United in the 2024/25 season? — closes 2025-06-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the UK government remove HTS from its list of terrorist organizations by June 1st 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 23:00 UTC
• Who will win the Ciclamino Jersey/Points Classification at the 2025 Giro d’Italia? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Shohei Ohtani pitch in May? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Will an AI write anything that interests me enough to want to keep reading it by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Trump admin confirms tariff rate formula was proposed by ChatGPT before June? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Will 'The Righteous Gemstones' Season 4 receive a Rotten Tomatoes critic score above 85% by June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the United States deport a natural born citizen during the month of May? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Dumbphone experiment - How will an e-ink smartphone impact my productivity by June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• How many different riders will wear the Maglia Rosa during the 2025 Giro d'Italia? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the Kremlin agree and implement an unconditional cease fire before then end of May 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Will nothing happen before June? (Read description) — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• My Rubik’s Cube 3x3 average time by end of April? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Wout van Aert wins a stage at 2025 Giro d' Italia? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Elon Musk faces margin call by June 1st, 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Wilco Kelderman win a stage or GC at the 2025 Giro d'Italia? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• What will the 1YR EUR Swap Rate be on June 1 2025? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in May 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the Azure Jersey/King of the Mountains Classification at the 2025 Giro d’Italia? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Manchester City qualify for 2025-2026 Champions League? — closes 2025-06-01 23:59 UTC
• Which region gets Sora access first by June 1st, 2025: EU, UK, or Neither? — closes 2025-06-02 00:00 UTC
• Who will be confirmed by the Senate as the next Chairman of the CFTC? — closes 2025-06-02 00:03 UTC
• Tits, Ass, or Something Else? [add answers] — closes 2025-06-02 00:17 UTC
• What will my individual score be on ARML? — closes 2025-06-02 01:06 UTC
• Will this market get LESS than 100 traders — closes 2025-06-02 01:14 UTC
• Which team will win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League? — closes 2025-06-02 01:46 UTC
• Tumbles debt value? (%) — closes 2025-06-02 02:13 UTC
• Will Garp leave Hachinosu alive? — closes 2025-06-02 02:59 UTC
• Will Jake Paul beat Tommy Fury in a rematch? — closes 2025-06-02 03:30 UTC
• What will Claude 3.5 Opus's reported 0-shot performance on GPQA Diamond be upon release? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• English Premier League 2024-25 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏟️⚽️| How many hat tricks will be scored? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Astrobotic Technology's Griffin Mission 1 mission successfully land on the moon? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Chief Shill bracket? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will I be living in the United States in June 1st 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Canada Post go on strike before June? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• English Premier League 2024-25 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏟️⚽️| Who will finish with the most combined goals and assists? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Mahathir Mohamad reach age 100? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Who will be the top scorer in the 2024-2025 UEFA Champions League? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Tucker Carlson's streaming service still be charging at least $9/mo on June 1st 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• How many Yea votes in the Senate by May 16 to begin reconciliation? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• NBA Basketball Games 🏀 (LIVE) — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• When will I be able to acquire a 5090 RTX at no more than 115% of market price? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• When will the Treasury Secretary and DOGE next have access to U.S. Treasury data? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will ispace's Hakuto-R M2 mission successfully land on the moon? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Sokolowski v. Digital Currency Group, Inc. survive a motion to dismiss? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will I be a practicing Catholic as of June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Kara Swisher's group successfully purchase the Washington Post from Jeff Bezos? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will I be accepted to a single (subjective) camp before college? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Should I read Thucydides' History of the Peloponnesian War? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will there be a tangible policy change as a result of the Potomac airline crash? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• What will be the result of U.S. v. Skrmetti (ban on gender affirming care for trans youth)? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will the Apple Vision Pro 2 come out by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• How much revenue will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) generate for the country in 2024? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Portal Paradox: will the cube be launched? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Is the Destiny / Nick Fuentes sex tape real? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will the next book of the "The Second Apocalypse" series be released before June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Which skill listed in The Order of The Stick #1268 will end up saving the day? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• How many participants will onboard to the Big Taping Truth Trial by June 1st? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will any Elon Musk companies ban iPhone usage on premises by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Amazon have a broadly available drone delivery service in the US by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will my backlog of unresolved questions be mostly cleared at any time before June 1st 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Chicago see a temp below 40F after the given date — closes 2025-06-02 04:59 UTC
• 🏅2025 Giro d'Italia Head-to-Head (H2H) Cyclist Markets (LIVE) — closes 2025-06-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the 2025 Giro d'Italia (men's) be won by a first time Grand Tour winner? — closes 2025-06-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Chelsea F.C place high enough to get into European football in the 2024/25 Premier League Season? 🇬🇧 — closes 2025-06-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Robinhood offer sports event contracts on June 1? — closes 2025-06-02 04:59 UTC
• Before June 1st 2025, will any "big law" firm announce layoffs of 10% or more within a 30 day period? — closes 2025-06-02 04:59 UTC
• Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 04:59 UTC
• Which of the Georgia election interference case defendents will accept plea deals or otherwise plead guilty? — closes 2025-06-02 05:59 UTC
• Will o4-mini-high conclude telepathically communicating with dogs and cats is ethically wrong based on your arguments? — closes 2025-06-02 05:59 UTC
• How many defendants will plead guilty in the 2020 Georgia election interference case? — closes 2025-06-02 05:59 UTC
• Will BlueSky overtake X in active users before June 1st 2025 — closes 2025-06-02 05:59 UTC
• Kamala Harris Has a Netflix Special Up & Ready to Watch by June 1, 2025. — closes 2025-06-02 05:59 UTC
• If Diamond league was like Masters (with everyone competing together), who would win it in May 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Which Premier League team will win the MacGuffin? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Will I have a date to Prom 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Will judge cannon be removed from the Florida trump case by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Will I start at a full time job before June 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Will AI image generating models score >= 90% on Winoground by June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• When will the Mountain View Alamo Drafthouse theater open to the public? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Will the US evacuate its citizens from Taiwan before June 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Will the Olympics generate over 11 billion euros in tourism revenue for Paris in 2024? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Manifold raise venture capital before election night? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Oklahoma legalize online sports betting during its 2025 legislative session? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Bay Area Community Spaces Index (BASIC) - Jun 2025 — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Which girl will Aqua Hoshino end up with in Oshi No Ko? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2024-2025 UEFA Champions League? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• If Trump is elected, will the 2023 Israel-Gaza war be ongoing in June 2025? — closes 2025-06-02 06:59 UTC
• Would ChatGPT O3 support or oppose the idea of banning cellphones at schools? — closes 2025-06-02 08:16 UTC
• What will my (@Robincvgr) League ranking (Masters) for May be? — closes 2025-06-02 16:42 UTC
• Will I be impressed by the performance of LLMs on organic chemistry problems? — closes 2025-06-02 17:06 UTC
• How will I resolve in relation to my Silver League? — closes 2025-06-02 20:24 UTC
• Trump publicly calls himself a king? — closes 2025-06-02 21:23 UTC
• Are there more wheels than doors? — closes 2025-06-02 21:59 UTC
• Will you be able to create 10s+ videos with consistent characters directly in the ChatGPT Interface by June 2025 — closes 2025-06-02 21:59 UTC
• Which day UTC will wikipedia reach 7,000,000 content pages? — closes 2025-06-02 22:59 UTC
• Liga Profesional Argentina 2025 Apertura winner? — closes 2025-06-02 23:59 UTC
• Will a Forbes 30 Under 30 winner of any vintage be arrested before June 1? — closes 2025-06-03 03:59 UTC
• Will Baker Mayfield be on the Bucs on June 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-03 03:59 UTC
• How much money will a woman who called a kid the n-word raise at her current GiveSendGo campaign? — closes 2025-06-03 05:01 UTC
• Will any US national politician be indicted in connection with Russian election interference, spying, or influence? — closes 2025-06-03 05:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 CONCACAF Champions Cup? — closes 2025-06-03 05:59 UTC
• Will I come first in my League — closes 2025-06-03 06:38 UTC
• Which landmarks in France will Tetra visit this trip? — closes 2025-06-03 07:12 UTC
• NBA Playoffs Semifinals: #4 Denver Nuggets vs #1 Oklahoma City Thunder (EXACT SERIES OUTCOME) — closes 2025-06-03 13:15 UTC
• Will there be a category 7.5-7.9 earthquake in the Los Angeles Metro Area at 8:21am on May 23, 2025? — closes 2025-06-03 17:18 UTC
• Will o4 be released before Jun 2025? — closes 2025-06-03 21:59 UTC
• Grok 3.5 ‘leaked’ benchmark scores end up real? — closes 2025-06-03 22:08 UTC
• Will the linked market be boosted? — closes 2025-06-03 22:59 UTC
• What will I name my Trading Bootcamp franchise? — closes 2025-06-04 03:59 UTC
• Foreign powers are behind the strange drone appearances in NJ and in other US states. — closes 2025-06-04 05:59 UTC
• [Deltarune] Is Asriel dead? — closes 2025-06-04 11:59 UTC
• The next mainline 3D Mario game will cost $69+ — closes 2025-06-04 19:48 UTC
• Zelda actress in Legend of Zelda? — closes 2025-06-04 21:59 UTC
• Did the Dobbs v. Jackson leak come from the left? — closes 2025-06-04 23:59 UTC
• Will Chelsea F.C win the UEFA Europa Conference League? — closes 2025-06-05 00:00 UTC
• Number of games in the 2025 NBA Finals series — closes 2025-06-05 02:42 UTC
• Who will win the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 2026 Senate election? — closes 2025-06-05 03:59 UTC
• Will the MSRP of the Nintendo Switch 2 in the US be increased from what was initially announced before release day? — closes 2025-06-05 04:59 UTC
• What will be true of Mario Kart World for Nintendo Switch 2? [Add Answers] — closes 2025-06-05 06:59 UTC
• What talks/panels will happen at Manifest 2025? (new, cheaper version) — closes 2025-06-05 07:14 UTC
• When will MrBeast reach 400M subscribers on Youtube? — closes 2025-06-05 11:11 UTC
• Do you consent to the JUMBLES bailout? — closes 2025-06-05 18:01 UTC
• Will the JUMBLES bailout happen? — closes 2025-06-05 18:46 UTC
• Nintendo Switch 2 launch titles? — closes 2025-06-05 21:59 UTC
• Will I find someone to sponsor my trip to Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-06-05 22:59 UTC
• Deltarune Chapter 3 Prop Bets — closes 2025-06-05 22:59 UTC
• Who will win Norway Chess 2025? — closes 2025-06-05 22:59 UTC
• What will the Nintendo Switch 2's base model's MSRP be on launch in the US? — closes 2025-06-05 22:59 UTC
• Will Welcome Tour on Switch 2 be free on launch of the Switch 2 in the US? — closes 2025-06-05 22:59 UTC
• Overall NetWorth on Manifold cross 20k — closes 2025-06-05 23:17 UTC
• Nintendo increases recommend US retail price of Switch 2 above the announced $449.99 before launch — closes 2025-06-05 23:59 UTC
• Will o3 pro be released in May 2025? — closes 2025-06-05 23:59 UTC
• Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse byelection winner for Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) on June 5th. — closes 2025-06-05 23:59 UTC
• True identity of Elena Ferrante publicly confirmed as a man before June 6, 2025 — closes 2025-06-06 00:00 UTC
• Trump makes the following trade deals by the end of May — closes 2025-06-06 01:45 UTC
• Will 21e8, Ltd, ship any product by June 5, 2025? — closes 2025-06-06 02:59 UTC
• UEFA Nations League 🎏|⚽ Semi-Finals — closes 2025-06-06 03:59 UTC
• Will Iran announce by June 4 that it has developed a nuclear weapons capability? — closes 2025-06-06 03:59 UTC
• Elon Musk leads an investment group to purchase MSNBC by 6/5/2025 — closes 2025-06-06 05:59 UTC
• Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%? — closes 2025-06-06 09:59 UTC
• Which parties will increase their percentage of the primary vote at the next Australian Federal Election? — closes 2025-06-06 14:29 UTC
• Elon Musk's America PAC: Will the paid incentives be ruled illegal? — closes 2025-06-06 14:29 UTC
• I stay in masters this league? — closes 2025-06-06 17:33 UTC
• Will I mainly use VSCode (not emacs) for my CS107 final assignment? — closes 2025-06-06 21:02 UTC
• Will resolution criteria be mandatory for new Yes/No markets on 06/06/2025? — closes 2025-06-06 21:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released before Jun 2025? — closes 2025-06-06 21:59 UTC
• Will I attend Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-06-06 22:59 UTC
• Will Tha Carter VI by Lil Wayne release on June 6 2025 as planned? — closes 2025-06-07 03:59 UTC
• Who will be the representative for Calwell? — closes 2025-06-07 04:14 UTC
• Will I major in CS? — closes 2025-06-07 06:59 UTC
• Tits or ass — closes 2025-06-07 06:59 UTC
• Will PayPal cease to offer the ability to transfer and receive crypto to and from arbitrary wallet addresses? Or... — closes 2025-06-07 15:00 UTC
• Will my friend develop a crush at USACO Camp 2025? — closes 2025-06-07 22:59 UTC
• Will I make IPhO 2025? — closes 2025-06-07 22:59 UTC
• Who will perform best: Biejat, Zandberg, Braun, Stanowski or Hołownia? (2025 Polish presidential election) — closes 2025-06-07 22:59 UTC
• US non-farm payroll higher in May 2025 than April 2025? — closes 2025-06-07 23:59 UTC
• Will Sławomir Mentzen win in at least one county? (2025 Polish presidential election) — closes 2025-06-07 23:59 UTC
• Which horse will win the 2025 Belmont Stakes on June 7? — closes 2025-06-07 23:59 UTC
• George Clooney wins Best Actor in a Leading Role in a Play at the 2025 Tony Awards — closes 2025-06-08 00:00 UTC
• Cole Escola wins Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play at the 2025 Tony Awards — closes 2025-06-08 00:00 UTC
• How many people will attend our 10th monthly NYC dinner? — closes 2025-06-08 01:13 UTC
• Number of Tony Awards won by 'Oh, Mary!' on June 8, 2025 — closes 2025-06-08 02:39 UTC
• I have 200+ Substack subscribers by July 3, 2025? — closes 2025-06-08 03:59 UTC
• Which musical will win Best New Musical at the 2025 Tony Awards? — closes 2025-06-08 19:59 UTC
• How will Krzysztof Stanowski perform in Poland's 2025 presidential election (first round)? — closes 2025-06-08 21:59 UTC
• Favorite Judge in the Book of Judges (Bible)? — closes 2025-06-08 21:59 UTC
• How far am I from the center of the White House (at time of closing)? — closes 2025-06-08 22:15 UTC
• Who will 'win' an award at the BIG Manifold Awards Ceremony (BIGMAC) at Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-06-08 22:51 UTC
• Will Emmett Shear attend Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-06-08 22:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump be convicted with violating the Espionage Act? — closes 2025-06-08 22:59 UTC
• What features/changes will we make to the site/'fest for Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-06-08 22:59 UTC
• Will Gwern attend Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-06-08 22:59 UTC
• @Eliza attends Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-06-08 23:59 UTC
• Will I attend Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-06-08 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the Manifest arm wrestling tournament? — closes 2025-06-08 23:59 UTC
• Will Greg still be dating this Bumble Girl by 6/8/2025? — closes 2025-06-08 23:59 UTC
• Ridwan Kamil named as suspect by KPK in Bank BJB corruption case before June 9, 2025 — closes 2025-06-09 00:00 UTC
• Kim Jong Un meets with Donald Trump at the White House before June 9, 2025 — closes 2025-06-09 00:00 UTC
• Will Manifest 2025 tickets sell out? — closes 2025-06-09 04:59 UTC
• What should the Biden campaign have been doing at the time this market was made to increase their chances of winning? — closes 2025-06-09 06:59 UTC
• How many days will this numeric type last? — closes 2025-06-09 06:59 UTC
• What should the Trump campaign have been doing at the time this market was made to increase their chances of winning? — closes 2025-06-09 06:59 UTC
• Will I regret having drunk one beer and 4-5 shots on June 8, 2024 at manifest in one year? — closes 2025-06-09 06:59 UTC
• Which country will win 2024–25 UEFA Nations League? — closes 2025-06-09 20:59 UTC
• If I get tickets for LessOnline/Mystery Summer Camp/Manifest, will I actually go? — closes 2025-06-09 22:59 UTC
• Manifest 2025 Prop Bets — closes 2025-06-09 22:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 South Korean Presidential Election? — closes 2025-06-09 23:59 UTC
• Number of polar bear babies alive in Karlsruhe Zoo by June 10th 2025 — closes 2025-06-10 00:00 UTC
• 1789 Capital raises at least $5 billion by June 10, 2025 — closes 2025-06-10 00:00 UTC
• Barron Trump makes a significant public appearance or statement by June 10, 2025 — closes 2025-06-10 00:00 UTC
• Which two teams will directly qualify for 2026 FIFA World Cup from AFC Group B by June 10, 2025? — closes 2025-06-10 00:00 UTC
• U.S. Senate votes on a bill related to women's reproductive rights before June 10, 2025 — closes 2025-06-10 00:00 UTC
• Bitcoin's price will outperform the floor price of top 10 NFT collections by June 2025 — closes 2025-06-10 00:00 UTC
• OWNB ETF will close above its launch price by June 10, 2025 — closes 2025-06-10 00:00 UTC
• Will the close price of Truth Social (NASDAQ: DJT) be higher than the previous day? (Daily Market) — closes 2025-06-10 02:53 UTC
• Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on Juneteenth 2025? — closes 2025-06-10 03:59 UTC
• Will Meta/Facebook Roll Back Some of Its Community Standards Changes? — closes 2025-06-10 06:59 UTC
• Will the CVS across from Lighthaven stay open for another year? — closes 2025-06-10 06:59 UTC
• Will my "quantum" portfolio perform better than S&P 500 over the next six months? — closes 2025-06-10 20:59 UTC
• Will KMOP 2025 include at least one song from BABYMONSTER? — closes 2025-06-10 22:59 UTC
• Lumina preorder delivered when? — closes 2025-06-11 02:29 UTC
• Will the value displayed on "How many days will this numeric type last?" be within 2x of correct? — closes 2025-06-11 03:59 UTC
• Will u/No-Doughnut-6475 win his UFO bet and get his tuition paid by Destiny? — closes 2025-06-11 03:59 UTC
• Which joke will I find funniest? — closes 2025-06-11 07:16 UTC
• ML researchers’ median probability of existential risk from AI — closes 2025-06-11 10:00 UTC
• Bot appreciation month — closes 2025-06-11 15:03 UTC
• Will Carsten be convicted for high treason? — closes 2025-06-11 21:59 UTC
• Will there be a story about jailbreaking used in emails within the next year? — closes 2025-06-11 22:59 UTC
• What will be the margin in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election? — closes 2025-06-11 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the Democratic primary for the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election? — closes 2025-06-12 04:59 UTC
• Was the SF dog walker arson a hoax? — closes 2025-06-12 06:59 UTC
• Will GTA6 be delayed? — closes 2025-06-12 06:59 UTC
• Will I learn to orient using cardinal directions? — closes 2025-06-12 11:41 UTC
• Will May 2025 be the hottest May ever? [NCEI] — closes 2025-06-12 15:00 UTC
• Mario Kart World's Top Critic average rating on OpenCritic? — closes 2025-06-12 17:00 UTC
• In what career path will @RanaG be in June 2025? — closes 2025-06-13 03:59 UTC
• Should I read Plato's Republic? — closes 2025-06-13 03:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk remove the ability to Delete Poasts from X.com within one year? — closes 2025-06-13 05:59 UTC
• Best Pony? — closes 2025-06-13 06:59 UTC
• Will Sam Wendover "die" on 6/12/2025? (broad criteria) — closes 2025-06-13 06:59 UTC
• Which countries will have active Russian military bases on Russia Day 2025? — closes 2025-06-13 06:59 UTC
• Will @8 let me play his guitar at any point before we graduate? — closes 2025-06-13 06:59 UTC
• Apple announce new AI feature at WWDC 2025? — closes 2025-06-13 16:27 UTC
• I'll have a higher biological age than actual age (per True Diagnostics) — closes 2025-06-13 18:20 UTC
• Will I be able to touch people without washing my hands afterwards (OCD) (no incide trading) — closes 2025-06-13 21:59 UTC
• Who Will Win the 2031 National Championship? — closes 2025-06-13 23:00 UTC
• Global Average Temperature May 2025 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp) — closes 2025-06-13 23:59 UTC
• What were the motives of the Magdeburg Christmas Market terror attacker? (Germany, 20 December 2024) — closes 2025-06-14 00:00 UTC
• Will OpenAI release a major update to ChatGPT before mid-June 2025? — closes 2025-06-14 00:00 UTC
• Which anime is better? — closes 2025-06-14 01:15 UTC
• Will SCOTUS find that TN Bill 1 prohibiting gender-affirming medical care is unconstitutional? [U.S. v. Skrmetti] — closes 2025-06-14 03:59 UTC
• How many types of drugs will I willingly consume at the next Manifest I attend? — closes 2025-06-14 03:59 UTC
• is math blue? — closes 2025-06-14 03:59 UTC
• Sweet & Sour Showdown: Will Michigan Sweet be priced higher than Wyoming Sour crude oil on Juneteenth? — closes 2025-06-14 03:59 UTC
• Next Anthropic Model tops Chatbot Leaderboard? (lmarena.ai) — closes 2025-06-14 12:43 UTC
• How soon after genociding a population does the colonizer become indigeneous? — closes 2025-06-14 21:59 UTC
• Will Tumbles DOUBLE YOUR MANA? — closes 2025-06-14 22:59 UTC
• MiaCat in profit by June 15, 2025? — closes 2025-06-14 23:59 UTC
• will hannah follow through with her 2 year grind to get into IMO lmao — closes 2025-06-14 23:59 UTC
• Donald Trump wears a military uniform at the Washington parade on June 14, 2025 — closes 2025-06-15 00:00 UTC
• Which country will have the highest GDP growth percentage in 2024? — closes 2025-06-15 00:00 UTC
• Will any horse will win the Triple Crown in 2025? — closes 2025-06-15 03:59 UTC
• Which team will win the UFL Championship Game? 🏈 2025 UFL Season — closes 2025-06-15 03:59 UTC
• Will the UFL complete their 2025 season? — closes 2025-06-15 03:59 UTC
• What will be the first cryptocurrency to surpass Bitcoin's market cap? — closes 2025-06-15 03:59 UTC
• When will the NJ Transit Rail Strike End? — closes 2025-06-15 12:47 UTC
• Will this question get X traders in X days? (Current X=60.) — closes 2025-06-15 18:02 UTC
• 2025 French Open - Women’s singles winner? — closes 2025-06-15 20:59 UTC
• 2025 French Open - Men’s singles winner? — closes 2025-06-15 20:59 UTC
• 2025 French Open - Men’s singles - Finals & Selected matches — closes 2025-06-15 20:59 UTC
• 2025 French Open - Women’s singles - Finals & Selected matches — closes 2025-06-15 20:59 UTC
• 2025 FIFA Club World Cup: champion — closes 2025-06-15 21:59 UTC
• Climate change: In which month will the 30-year global warming trend first reach 1.41°C? — closes 2025-06-15 21:59 UTC
• Climate change: In which month will the 30-year global warming trend first reach 1.40°C? — closes 2025-06-15 21:59 UTC
• Will Apple release an AirPods Pro Case (or new model) with a SCREEN on the case, before mid 2025 ? — closes 2025-06-15 21:59 UTC
• Will June 14, 2025 be a U.S. federal holiday? — closes 2025-06-15 23:59 UTC
• Will the Center for AI Policy reach their minimum funding goal by 6/16/2025? — closes 2025-06-15 23:59 UTC
• I get exact steps to fix dimming issue on my laptop in comments? — closes 2025-06-16 00:18 UTC
• Will the reality show "Dancing With Sharks" feature live dancing sharks? — closes 2025-06-16 01:32 UTC
• Which social media platforms will have an increase in harassment in 2024-2025, among Americans? — closes 2025-06-16 03:59 UTC
• What will be the price of a dozen eggs in May 2025? — closes 2025-06-16 03:59 UTC
• Will Kevin Durant go on Pardon My Take before the end of the 2024-2025 basketball season — closes 2025-06-16 03:59 UTC
• Will I get into MIT? — closes 2025-06-16 03:59 UTC
• Erin Patterson found guilty of mushroom murders? — closes 2025-06-16 05:57 UTC
• Which game engine will dominate the VR/AR space — closes 2025-06-16 06:59 UTC
• Will Baron Trump have credible rumors of a girlfriend before the end of freshman year — closes 2025-06-16 06:59 UTC
• Land Acknowledgements appear in MIT undergraduate graduation ceremony, 2023-2025 — closes 2025-06-16 06:59 UTC
• On which days in 2025 will Donald Trump be alive? — closes 2025-06-16 16:59 UTC
• What format will 'Jet Lag: The Game - Season Fourteen' take? — closes 2025-06-16 23:59 UTC
• Daily Trump impeachment markets - By which week will Trump be impeached for a third time? (May 18 - June 14) — closes 2025-06-16 23:59 UTC
• Golf: Who will win the 2025 US Open? — closes 2025-06-17 03:59 UTC
• Will macOS 16 drop support for intel based Mac’s? — closes 2025-06-17 03:59 UTC
• Will I write another hour-long Substack this year? — closes 2025-06-17 05:45 UTC
• Max Verstappen will compete in and win at the next Nürburgring 24 Hours — closes 2025-06-18 07:31 UTC
• Which of the YC AI Startup School speakers will I actually meet? — closes 2025-06-18 17:36 UTC
• Fed decision in June? — closes 2025-06-18 23:59 UTC
• Will the next Gran Turismo 7 update (1.60/1) be released before the 19th of June 2025? — closes 2025-06-18 23:59 UTC
• Bitcoin price above $120,000 by June 19, 2025? — closes 2025-06-19 00:00 UTC
• Will NYC Subway ridership be 80% of pre-pandemic levels or higher at the end of Juneteenth 2025? — closes 2025-06-19 03:59 UTC
• Will Andrew Tate skip bail and flee Romania? — closes 2025-06-19 06:59 UTC
• Is the feature on Dirty by KSI actually Billie Eilish? — closes 2025-06-19 22:23 UTC
• Has Elon Musk been bought by Russia? — closes 2025-06-19 22:59 UTC
• How long will it take for all 50 CodeBuff referral slots to be claimed? — closes 2025-06-19 22:59 UTC
• US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in June 2025? — closes 2025-06-19 23:59 UTC
• At the end of Juneteenth 2025 (June 19) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin? — closes 2025-06-20 03:59 UTC
• Will I go to VibeCamp this year — closes 2025-06-20 03:59 UTC
• Sweet & Sour Showdown: Will Michigan Sweet be priced higher than Wyoming Sour crude oil on Juneteenth 2025? — closes 2025-06-20 03:59 UTC
• Will the SMH semiconductor ETF close over $365 on June 20, 2025? — closes 2025-06-20 06:59 UTC
• Will my testosterone levels increase on topical testosterone gel? — closes 2025-06-20 16:46 UTC
• If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days? — closes 2025-06-20 19:59 UTC
• Will AGI be interpretable due to CoT and reflection and similar methods? — closes 2025-06-20 21:59 UTC
• What will be the status of TikTok in the US on June 20th 2025? — closes 2025-06-20 23:59 UTC
• Anthropic releases a voice assistant before June 21st 2025 — closes 2025-06-21 00:00 UTC
• Juneteenth is celebrated as a federal holiday in the United States in 2025 — closes 2025-06-21 00:00 UTC
• Did OpenAI make a profit during 2023? — closes 2025-06-21 03:59 UTC
• Will I get a girlfriend before I graduate high school? — closes 2025-06-21 03:59 UTC
• Will I make both USApHO and the FIDE IM title before the summer of 2025? — closes 2025-06-21 03:59 UTC
• I get 5k Twitter followers by Vibecamp? — closes 2025-06-21 21:27 UTC
• Will I feel like I have significantly built meditation skills by the start of summer? — closes 2025-06-21 23:59 UTC
• Sanders and AOC announce new national day of action before June 22, 2025? — closes 2025-06-21 23:59 UTC
• Department of Education eliminated by June 2026 — closes 2025-06-22 00:00 UTC
• Who will SCOTUS favor in Free Speech Coalition Inc. v Paxton? — closes 2025-06-22 15:59 UTC
• Who will win the Counter-Strike BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025? — closes 2025-06-23 06:59 UTC
• Will I qualify for an international olympiad team this year? — closes 2025-06-23 22:59 UTC
• Will LEXER attend VibeCamp 2025? — closes 2025-06-23 22:59 UTC
• Juniper gets laid at Vibecamp? — closes 2025-06-23 23:59 UTC
• What deck colors and archetype will win the next Magic: The Gathering Standard Pro Tour event? — closes 2025-06-24 03:59 UTC
• What will be the composition of the top 32 decks in the next Standard Magic the Gathering Pro Tour event? — closes 2025-06-24 03:59 UTC
• Conditional on me going to Vibecamp this year, will I be glad that I went all things considered? — closes 2025-06-24 03:59 UTC
• Who will win the NBA Championship 2024-2025? — closes 2025-06-24 06:59 UTC
• Will the Noise Step paper work for LLMs? — closes 2025-06-25 04:59 UTC
• How many aviation accidents and incidents will occur in the United States in 2025? — closes 2025-06-25 06:59 UTC
• Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year? — closes 2025-06-25 06:59 UTC
• NBA Draft - Mavericks trade number 1 pick? — closes 2025-06-25 11:39 UTC
• Which candidate or candidates will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse for NYC mayor in the Democratic Party Primary? — closes 2025-06-25 17:23 UTC
• how many problems am i going to write on the 2025 elmo — closes 2025-06-25 22:53 UTC
• Who will be the Democratic NYC Mayor nominee this year? — closes 2025-06-25 22:59 UTC
• Recall petition of Joel Engardio qualifies for the ballot (2025) — closes 2025-06-26 00:00 UTC
• Will Tesla TSLA reach $500 by end of June 2025? — closes 2025-06-26 03:59 UTC
• Will the Atlanta Fed's shocking Q1 GDP estimate be accurate? (-2% or lower) — closes 2025-06-26 03:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 NBA Finals? — closes 2025-06-26 06:59 UTC
• "Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months? — closes 2025-06-27 16:59 UTC
• Will "FTX Foundation, Inc." (i.e., the non-profit Future Fund entity) be added to the debtor group as part of the FTX bankruptcy proceedings? — closes 2025-06-27 22:59 UTC
• Conditional on having received grant money (after Aug 11, 2022) *from a group in the debtor group as part of the FTX bankruptcy proceedings*, will 1 or more grant recipient be asked to pay at least some of their grant money back? — closes 2025-06-27 23:59 UTC
• How many Korean songs will be in the top 10 of Spotify Weekly Top Songs Global for the week ending June 26, 2025? — closes 2025-06-27 23:59 UTC
• Who will be the #2 pick in the 2025 NBA draft? — closes 2025-06-27 23:59 UTC
• Will Twitch pay the withheld earnings to Russian streamers in full by June 2025 — closes 2025-06-28 00:00 UTC
• Will Harvard make an official statement about a public matter unrelated to its core function by 6/27/25? — closes 2025-06-28 03:59 UTC
• Did at least one police officer rescue their own child in the Uvalde Texas School Shooting? — closes 2025-06-28 06:59 UTC
• Which models will be visible on the ChatGPT default model picker on Jun 28, 2025? (plus account) — closes 2025-06-28 14:25 UTC
• Will Manifold implement some form of automatic growth of invested mana? — closes 2025-06-28 21:59 UTC
• Who will win Squid Games? (Season 3) — closes 2025-06-28 21:59 UTC
• When will a bridge like the Francis Scott Key Bridge In Baltimore be accessible again? — closes 2025-06-28 21:59 UTC
• Will any of the top 5 global companies by market cap be non-American on June 28, 2025? — closes 2025-06-28 23:59 UTC
• AI has a 90%-100% accuracy in predicting stock market trends before 2026. — closes 2025-06-29 13:59 UTC
• Who will be the 3 main headliners of Glastonbury 2025 — closes 2025-06-29 21:59 UTC
• Number of Deaths in Myanmar Earthquake — closes 2025-06-29 22:17 UTC
• Will Sam Fender play Glastonbury 2025? — closes 2025-06-29 22:59 UTC
• On what dates will Rachel Reeves still be Chancellor of the Exchequer? — closes 2025-06-29 23:01 UTC
• JoJo Siwa publicly admits to plagiarism by June 29th, 2025 — closes 2025-06-29 23:59 UTC
• Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeds 40,000 by June 29, 2025 — closes 2025-06-29 23:59 UTC
• Gypsy-Rose Blanchard's Instagram followers exceed 1 million by June 30, 2025 — closes 2025-06-29 23:59 UTC
• Boba shop near MOP 2025? — closes 2025-06-29 23:59 UTC
• Which NATO member states will meet 2% GDP defense spending target by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
• Was any of the major LA wildfires laid by arson and if yes, by whom? — closes 2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
• Connor Hellebuyck wins 2024-2025 NHL Vezina Trophy — closes 2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
• U.S. Congress approves funding for Manhattan Project-style AI initiative by June 30, 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
• California State Fire Marshal proposes standards for single-stairway multifamily buildings as directed by AB 835 — closes 2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
• European nations will commit to fielding at least 200,000 troops to replace US forces by June 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
• ChatGPT in top 10 most visited websites globally by June 30, 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
• Israel and Egypt engage in direct military conflict before July 1st 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
• OpenAI's next major AI model will be more open than GPT-4 by June 30, 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
• Total European cannabis market (medical + recreational) exceeds $5 billion in value by June 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
• Joe Rogan announces conversion to Christianity before July 1st 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
• Which is most likely to cause a global catastrophic event? (Resolves as poll) — closes 2025-06-30 01:47 UTC
• 🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2025-06-30 03:59 UTC
• Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated? — closes 2025-06-30 04:59 UTC
• Which large telescope would the NSF back? — closes 2025-06-30 05:59 UTC
• Bitcoin (BTC) price on June 30, 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 06:59 UTC
• Will xAI be ahead of DeepSeek on June 30 — closes 2025-06-30 11:59 UTC
• AI Kaneko trained on outside work? — closes 2025-06-30 12:55 UTC
• If Gary Gensler is replaced as the SEC chair, will the replacement provide formal guidance that Ether is not a security? — closes 2025-06-30 13:59 UTC
• $300M subsidy: Did Israel bomb an evacuation route? — closes 2025-06-30 13:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump exclude Australia in the steel tariffs by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 13:59 UTC
• Will a future Augmented Reality Headset become popularly worn in public spaces? (Prior to Mid-2025) — closes 2025-06-30 13:59 UTC
• Will Darius receive any benefit from a lawsuit or settlement with erobb? — closes 2025-06-30 14:29 UTC
• Can polyamorous relationships work? Please provide insight and experiences in the comments. — closes 2025-06-30 14:34 UTC
• Will I get a 4.0 GPA this year? — closes 2025-06-30 15:59 UTC
• What will be the official cause of the Prigozhin plane crash as reported by Russia after their investigation? — closes 2025-06-30 17:56 UTC
• Does Kyrgyzstan will became a developed country at 2035? — closes 2025-06-30 17:59 UTC
• Is Manifold the best prediction market? — closes 2025-06-30 18:29 UTC
• Will the U.S. Pull Out of NATO by June 30? 🇺🇸 — closes 2025-06-30 18:29 UTC
• Will any part of the 🩷 pink line of Bangalore's Namma Metro be functional by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 18:29 UTC
• What college or university will I get into? [details in description] — closes 2025-06-30 20:59 UTC
• Which of these symphonies will have a new recording available on Youtube during Q1-Q2 of 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 20:59 UTC
• Will a credible source say that right wing dislike of taylor swift cost them 1pp of votes in the 2024 election? — closes 2025-06-30 20:59 UTC
• 2024–25 NBA Eastern Conference champion? — closes 2025-06-30 20:59 UTC
• Will MidJourney offer a developers API before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 20:59 UTC
• 2024–25 NBA Western Conference champion? — closes 2025-06-30 20:59 UTC
• Will whales make these markets unfair? — closes 2025-06-30 21:31 UTC
• Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models, generate more than $1B revenue in 2024? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• What did the Il-76 shot down on 1/24 carry? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will links still be widely de-boosted on Twitter by July 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will an AI System Solve One of the Remaining Millennium Prize Problems by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• [OpenAI Startup Fund] Which ideas will OpenAI invest in as part of Converge Two? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will the Treaty Principle Bills pass? [New Zealand] — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Whale fight! — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Has Ukraine shot down the IL-76 plane? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will the One Piece Manga end before July 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Why did Jeju Air flight 2216 crash? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will I get my high school diploma when I try to pass it? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models, generate more than $5B revenue in 2024? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models, generate more than $3B revenue in 2024? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by end of June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Better Career Pledge >50 Pledgers by End of June 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will I track my mood and energy levels every day until the end of June? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will Trump's hush money convictions be overturned due to the Supreme Court's grant of presidential immunity? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models, generate more than $2B revenue in 2024? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• Will o3 cause public protests until June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 21:59 UTC
• What will be the average monthly player count for Victoria 3 in June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 22:00 UTC
• What will be the highest Bitcoin dominance before July 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 22:00 UTC
• Who will be the next country to join NATO? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will any UK cabinet member leave cabinet this quarter? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will Eric Adams appear on the ballot in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• When will Benjamin Netanyahu be replaced as Prime Minister of Israel? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will the Extend the TikTok Deadline Act pass? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will anyone be fired or resign for the Yemen War Plans group chat? [READ PINNED COMMENT] — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Which lab will publish the model leading OpenRouter monthly rankings July 1st 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will any AI be shown to accurately simulate an amoeba or heavier on the molecular level before 2025-07-01? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will JD Vance meet Pope Leo before July 1st — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will the UK HSA advise that the risk to the general public from bird flu is very low at the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI reveal thinking tokens by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• How many SpaceX Starship launches Jan 2025 to June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will Russia or North Korea honor their mutual defense pact if the other is attacked by a third party? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will Trent Alexander Arnold extend his Liverpool contract? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Will Pete Hegseth face any consequences for the recent second Signal leak? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• When will there be a company worth $4T or more? — closes 2025-06-30 22:59 UTC
• Biden ranked below Carter in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey — closes 2025-06-30 23:00 UTC
• Biden ranked below W Bush in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey — closes 2025-06-30 23:00 UTC
• Will the Senate pass a bill limiting POTUS tariff authority before July 1? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• China invades Taiwan before July — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Tariffs on China above 150% by end of June — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Tony Award for Best Leading Actress in a Musical? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will India or Pakistan use nuclear weapons against the other before July? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Car-sharing company removes broken-down car M764HM797 from my home by July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Age of 2025 NBA Champion — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates in Q2 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Which companies will change their logo on twitter for pride month? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q2 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• How many Indian-Pakistan conflict deaths before July? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will the U.S. de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese imports end by June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will the conclave vote tallies leak by end of June? (SUBJECTIVE, RESOLVES TO PROB) — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Who will win HSNCT 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Von der Leyen meets with Trump before July 1? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• DingDingDing Casino announces a plan to resume operations by June 30, 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will the Faith-Based Affordable Housing Act pass during the 2025 New York legislative session? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Canada's tariff rate on US goods at the end of Q2? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will German fiber-optic provider install home connections without charging connection fees by June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Who will be secretary of defense on June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Tesla launch full self driving product as a paid service without human driver inside car Austin by end June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will the Avi/Ay vs circle squarers talk happen before July? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Which company has best AI model end of June? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Trump and Xi meet in person before July? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Trump admin official held in contempt before end of June? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam visit the US before July 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will I see Don Knuth in his office by end of quarter? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will another Ivy League sue the Trump Administration by June 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• MITRE announces new CVE program funding model before July 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Le monde connaîtra-t-elle une 3e guerre mondiale qui causera plus de dégâts que la précédente avant mi-2025 ? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Stanley Cup Winner 24/25 — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk publicly acknowledge any responsibility for Tesla's stock decline by July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Trump executive order severely limiting US charities & climate non-profits before Q3 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Congress acts against Trump's tariffs by June? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Global Average Temperature June 2025 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp) — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Which of these things will occur in Q2, 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• NBA Playoffs Exact Series Outcome: #2 Boston Celtics vs #7 Orlando Magic — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Russian Agricultural Bank be reconnected to SWIFT before end of June '25? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Bitcoin price above $100,000 on June 30, 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Tetraspace vape by July 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Which company has best AI model end of June? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Number of countries imposing tariffs in response to U.S. measures by June 30, 2025 — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• How many migrants will the US deport to Libya before July 1st — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Tetraspace smoke by July 2025? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• US Supreme Court strikes down Tennessee's gender-affirming care ban in United States v. Skrmetti? — closes 2025-06-30 23:59 UTC
• How many times will Donald Trump mention the possibility of a third term in public statements before June 30th, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 00:00 UTC
• Average cost of gas in California above $5 per gallon before June 30, 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 00:00 UTC
• Will egg prices reach $10/dozen before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 00:00 UTC
• UK Labour Government announces new national grooming gangs inquiry before July 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 00:00 UTC
• NATO summit June 2025, what will happen ? — closes 2025-07-01 00:00 UTC
• Length of NJ Transit strike? — closes 2025-07-01 00:22 UTC
• Magnus Carlsen has the highest ELO in the world in mid 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 01:00 UTC
• NATO raises defence spending target above 2% GDP by July 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 01:00 UTC
• 10 year moratorium on any regulation on AI through Budget reconciliation bill? — closes 2025-07-01 01:04 UTC
• I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES. — closes 2025-07-01 01:08 UTC
• What is more desirable in a guy? — closes 2025-07-01 01:21 UTC
• Pope Leo XIV's Swiss Guard vs JD Vance's Secret Service — closes 2025-07-01 01:54 UTC
• Will Meta launch a competitor to Reddit by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Microsoft launch an AI hardware comparable to Rabbit R1 by June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 02:59 UTC
• If the NBER declares a recession in 2023 or 2024, will they do that after the recession has ended? — closes 2025-07-01 02:59 UTC
• Will a consensus emerge that GM Daniel Naroditsky is a cheater on online blitz by June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 02:59 UTC
• Will I be convinced that gen-AI will create tailwinds that overflow to non-gen AI aspects of hyperscalers’ by June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk do the Seig Heil / Nazi / Roman Salute at another public event before the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Dr Disrespect sign a contract with Kick by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will we get silksong news in the following months? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Rich Sutton and Eliezer Yudkowsky debate at Manifest 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the Wayback Machine still exist by mid-2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be given a Cabinet position by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• By the end of June 2025, will closed-source LLMs increase access to pandemic agents? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• By which time will Zoe E move to Israel: — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will there be major social unrest in the USA by July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will 5000 herds of livestock be infected by H5N1 by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Deion Sanders still be the coach of the Colorado Buffaloes at the beginning of the 2025-2026 season — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the FTC's new non-compete ban be upheld on final appeal? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will a Manifold newsletter that I write get 50 likes on Substack by the end of June? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Yann LeCun suddenly leaves Facebook by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Tesla officially release a car that costs $30,999 USD or less by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Who will be the #1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the Trump administration "accidentally" remove any regulation before the end of June? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• ☀️What will happen in June 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Is DOGE implementing Land Value Tax (LVT) before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• How will the office vacancy rate in NYC change by summer 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Who will come Second in the 2025 New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• What will happen to the contracts of Salah, Trent, and Virgil at Liverpool at the end of this year? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Ana Kasparian leave TYT by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the IDF reservists who engaged in torture and rape of Palestinian prisoners be released from detention? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will there be a new record breaking most expensive coin by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will any one of the 34 Trump felonies in NYC be overturned by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Mr Beast have a video with 1 billion views by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will hbomberguy release a new mainline video essay by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will I implement my AI markets profitting strategy in H1 2025, and will it work? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Trump attempt to use PAC money to pay for damages he owes in the NY civil suits? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Dan Clancey, CEO of Twitch, be called to testify to the US Federal Government before the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Israel announce annexation of Area C in the West Bank before June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the next Stanley Cup — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Iran blockade the Strait of Hormuz before Israel's invasion of the Gaza Strip ends? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• In what range will the price of Dodgecoin be in June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Trump increase its tariffs on Canada to 50% or higher by June 30th? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the civilian death rate from Israeli airstrikes be 60% or higher at the conclusion of the current Palestine war? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Trump sell 25% or more of his Truth Social $DJT shares by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Trump’s Fulton County trial be the top rated daytime television program in the US? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will AI wipe out humanity before Q3 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the AI Safety Clock reach 20 minutes to midnight by June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will TikTok be downloadable on the Apple iOS app store at the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will @strutheo get 100,000 traders in one life, before June 2025 ends? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• What new perks will be added to the American Express Green Card by June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Zuck departs Meta before Elon departs SpaceX — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Which Celebrity will launch their own memecoin before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the IDF kill more of Hamas's October 7th hostages than Hamas does? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Is the review of "The Bear" in the Chicago Tribune positive? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Coffee cost more than Tea at the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Pierre Poilievre become Canada’s prime minister before the conclusion of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Bronny James 2024-2025 NBA season prop bets — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will John Fetterman vote to confirm at least half of Trump's cabinet? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the US AISI be gutted in H1 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the US Congress pass 2 or more bills in Jun 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 03:59 UTC
• Will reddit have been "replaced" by July of 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 04:00 UTC
• How Many Units Will Apple’s Vision Pro Headset Sell In The First Year? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Will we set a new record for number of people in space by mid 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an investigation into the Port of Baltimore Dali collusion implicate foul play? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Which elite global achievers will join manifold? Nobel prize, Nebula, Pope, EGOT, Pulitzer? 50+ Y/N options, research op — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• 20 BOLD NHL Predictions for 2024-2025 — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• This insane Toast point of sale (POS) touchpad receipt dialogue design gets fixed by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• In "be as good as your word," is Iomedae from Golarion? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Will U.S. Congress approve new Ukraine aid package by June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Will my friend Trevor get a girlfriend by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• What percentage of Americans watched the total eclipse on April 8, 2024? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the team that is the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup winner be a first-time champion? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI give their new LLM an anthropomorphic name? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Will RFK Jr file suit against Olivia Nuzzi? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of the top 12 Western conference teams will tank/collapse? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Florida Panthers in NHL Stanley Cup series third time in a row? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Will "games of no chance" have a Lorxus-supplied facecast soon? — closes 2025-07-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at non-50% probabilities in the UI? (by July 2025) — closes 2025-07-01 05:59 UTC
• Will any of the Georgia election interference case defendants be remanded to custody for violating their bond? — closes 2025-07-01 05:59 UTC
• Steven Pinker is president of Harvard by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 05:59 UTC
• Ernie's Market Creation Bounty Market, permanent, MC UL. Research opportunities, mana making chances — closes 2025-07-01 05:59 UTC
• What will Biden's share of the popular vote be in the 2024 election? — closes 2025-07-01 05:59 UTC
• when will x/twitter officially launch international peer-to-peer payments? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will market creators have notifications for when they earn commission on trades by mid 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Robotaxis roll out in Austin as planned? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Apple AirPods Pro 3 be available for general purchase before July 1 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• There's a standard way to get delivery notes from amazon as events in gcal by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's "biggest guest yet" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll) — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• I'll see one of those crazy new mail trucks by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Conditional on WWU SEA having a meeting on AI, will >10 non-officers attend? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Which teaching program will I get into? (and accept) — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• What will Sam Altman be doing on June 30 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Shawn Fain be gone as the president of the UAW by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Kathryn Garcia run in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• CyberTrucks popping up in various countries by mid 2025 - where will there be sightings — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Jumaane Williams be the mayor or acting mayor of New York by mid 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Elon helps out Sam's alignment victims by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will more people have emigrated from India than any other country in 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Gold missing from Fort Knox? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• A Drive-by-wire related disaster leads to widespread criticism and requests for regulation of the technology by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Which artists will have albums or EPs in the top 10 of the Rate Your Music (RYM) chart for 2024? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• NYT clearly suggests discussed Trump attack May have been staged by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• LLM Factorio by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the Tesla next generation vehicle be known by the name "Model 2"? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Tesla based Uber-like service is available in the US for at least some normal Tesla owners before mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Kathryn Garcia run in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will limit order UI be understandable by mid 2026? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Shawn Fain be gone as the president of the UAW by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will calibre ebook manager have easy integration with text to audio apps by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• A Drive-by-wire related disaster leads to widespread criticism and requests for regulation of the technology by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• 🇮🇱 Did Israel fire into the crowd during the February 29th aid convoy incident? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Apple AirPods Pro 3 be available for general purchase before July 1 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Jumaane Williams be the mayor or acting mayor of New York by mid 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Twitter feature: shared drafts between PC and android, by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• I'll see one of those crazy new mail trucks by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Voice control of Cursor + LLM interactions by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Manchester City be found guilty? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Elon helps out Sam's alignment victims by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth) — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Elon out of Trump administration before July? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• What will be US tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors on July 1st, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Robotaxis roll out in Austin as planned? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Safe Superintelligence have more than 100 employees by mid-2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• A tweet about Tesla FSD + Intimate activity reaches 20m views by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• CyberTrucks popping up in various countries by mid 2025 - where will there be sightings — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Kelly Jean be unbanned in dgg chat the end of June 30 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Which artists will have albums or EPs in the top 10 of the Rate Your Music (RYM) chart for 2024? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market] — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Which teaching program will I get into? (and accept) — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will YouTube allow me to configure a personal agent to represent my interests as I use the site by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will more people have emigrated from India than any other country in 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• What will be true of Grok-2? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will NYC restrict mobile phones during the 2024-25 school year? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Twitter "reverse following" view possible? To show you what your followers post, rather than what people you follow post — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Elon subscribe to, reply to, or quote Janus? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will market creators have notifications for when they earn commission on trades by mid 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Conditional on WWU SEA having a meeting on charity impact markets, will >10 non-officers attend? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the Michael Jackson biopic include a white Michael Jackson? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Twitter feature: can adjust image order on the website on PC, by mid 2026 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Application request: Sort images by prompted embedding, like hot/cold, big/small — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Gold missing from Fort Knox? (MAINSTREAM MEDIA EDITION) — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• What will Sam Altman be doing on June 30 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will KSP2 v0.2.3.0 or higher release on Steam by the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Elon Musk publicly mentions or responds related to Manifold again by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Ilya Sutskever and Andrej Karpathy back working together by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will future versions of Grok be open sourced? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• North Korean troops in Ukraine by mid 2025 — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• How many of Trumps cabinet picks will fail to secure Senate confirmations? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Lighthaven be capable of hosting a Manifest/LessOnline style event in June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Google has a new CEO by? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Conditional on WWU SEA having a meeting on energy policy, will >10 non-officers attend? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will >50% of Fortune 500 global managers report regularly using generative AI for work by June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the $450 million fraud judgment against Donald Trump stand? — closes 2025-07-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the ability of F-1 international students to work in the US be severely curtailed before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 07:00 UTC
• Will the live-action remake of Your Name be released on or before 1 July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 07:00 UTC
• Will @MarcusAbramovitch make a single Manifold trade or market in 2026? — closes 2025-07-01 07:01 UTC
• Will @IsaacKing make a single trade or market in 2026? — closes 2025-07-01 07:01 UTC
• Will Sinwar's successor to Hamas leadership be killed by Israel before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 07:01 UTC
• Is Polymarket more accurate than Manifold at p<0.05? — closes 2025-07-01 09:39 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 11:00 UTC
• What proportion of the time will apple vision owners use their apple vision as their main screen when working from home. — closes 2025-07-01 11:59 UTC
• Will I complete my PhD? — closes 2025-07-01 11:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2024/25 NBA MVP? — closes 2025-07-01 11:59 UTC
• Will South Korea announce the direct provision of military equipment to Ukraine by June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 11:59 UTC
• Will Andrés Manuel López Obrador be the de facto head of government of Mexico on July 1st, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 13:59 UTC
• Will most businesses have access to buy ads on Perplexity.ai by 1 July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 13:59 UTC
• Will most businesses have access to buy ads on an OpenAI product by 1 July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 13:59 UTC
• Result of the 2025 World Test Championship at Lords? — closes 2025-07-01 13:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight? — closes 2025-07-01 13:59 UTC
• [WIP] Will the fertility crisis become an issue for blue tribe before July? — closes 2025-07-01 14:34 UTC
• Which team will be the 2025 CPBL First-Half Champion? (Taiwan Baseball) — closes 2025-07-01 15:59 UTC
• Will I still be more attracted to men than women on July 1st, 2025 (6mo from now)? — closes 2025-07-01 16:59 UTC
• Is changing the dislike button to a 'flag as spam' button a good idea? — closes 2025-07-01 16:59 UTC
• Will FTX creditors get an option to be paid back using stablecoins? — closes 2025-07-01 20:59 UTC
• How Will the Supreme Court Rule in St. Isidore of Seville Catholic Virtual School [Religious Charter School Case]? — closes 2025-07-01 21:24 UTC
• Who will be the Vice-Chancellor of Germany in the middle of 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• How many traders will this market get?[READ DESC] — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Premier League 2024/2025 Which Team is higher On The Results Of The Championship — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Will there be a military drone-swarm to drone-swarm dogfight (packfight?) before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Is "The Entity" in Mission Impossible actually just an AI? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be able to make original jokes Manifold users consider funny? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Trump implement a 250% reciprocal tariff on Canadian lumber or dairy products? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Will I <strike>own the libs</strike> enter the profit leaderboard before the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Will the EU find Apple's App Store changes non-compliant with the DMA? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Will someone be seen or filmed to slap or punch Elon Musk hard in the face before June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Vučić flee like Assad? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Winning Conference | NBA 2024/25 — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Which team will win the NHL Stanley Cup in the 2024/25 season? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Will a model get 1500 elo on lmarena (lmsys) before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• When will the Global Carbon Reward project be implemented worldwide? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• (No) Elephant in the AI room — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Will the CDC or WHO discourage non-essential travel due to H5N1 before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 21:59 UTC
• Manifold funeral at* Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Guinea's planned elections occur? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• How many Premier League goals will the winning team concede in 2024/25 season? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Biggest upset (betting odds) in 2025 NBA playoffs — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• When will Lean come with a code formatter usable in VSCode? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a Russo-Ukrainian prisoner exchange involving at least ten (10) North Koreans occur before Q3, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Apocalypse Truss: Redux - Will GBP versus USD reach 1.08 before Q3, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Max have an h-index > 12 by the end of his PhD? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Will PornHub in the UK require age verification by July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a 5th season of Battle For Dream Island release before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• On this date Aleks @caffeinum will already have been to US at least once? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• How many Premier League goals will the winning team score in 2024/25 season? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the best AI score on the IMO 2025 be more like AlphaProof or o3? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• When will Microsoft release Windows 12? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Max have more than 6 papers accepted in journals with IF > 5 by the end of his PhD? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Show Cause hearing scheduled in Abrego Garcia v. Noem (8:25-cv-00951)? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Max have more than 15 papers accepted in journals with IF > 2 by the end of his PhD? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality? — closes 2025-07-01 22:59 UTC
• Will any model score 70+% on ARC AGI 2 within 3 months of its release? — closes 2025-07-01 23:36 UTC
• Will the plurality of Zvi's June 2025 AI use be from OpenAI? — closes 2025-07-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Google Trends activity for 'AI' be higher on July 1st 2025 then it is today? — closes 2025-07-01 23:59 UTC
• Will NYC end congestion pricing by July 1st, 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Shohei Ohtani pitch in June? — closes 2025-07-01 23:59 UTC
• Nelson Memo implemented by July 1 2025? — closes 2025-07-01 23:59 UTC
• Will both houses of the Missouri legislature pass a stadium bill by June 31, 2025 for the Kansas City Chiefs or Royals? — closes 2025-07-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Argentina be upgraded to Emerging Market status by MSCI before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 00:00 UTC
• U.S. Congress passes significant campaign finance reform legislation — closes 2025-07-02 00:00 UTC
• Argentina implements 12-hour workdays without extra pay as part of labor reform by July 2nd 2025 — closes 2025-07-02 00:00 UTC
• Will there be a G3 or higher solar storm in the first half of 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 00:00 UTC
• Will Starship make orbit on first attempt? — closes 2025-07-02 01:59 UTC
• When will quiver.trade publicly release market making pools? — closes 2025-07-02 02:59 UTC
• Which global leaders will attend the 2025 G7 Summit in person? — closes 2025-07-02 02:59 UTC
• When will quiver.trade first release protected liquidity pools? — closes 2025-07-02 02:59 UTC
• What will Steph Curry’s last NBA season be? (He turns 36 on 3/14/24) — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk post a tweet criticizing the choice of the next pope within a month of it being announce? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of Avi Schiffman's Friend AI device before the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• What changes will Denmark agree to before 1 July regarding its relationship with Greenland? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Yann LeCun remain the head of AI at Meta (Facebook) on July 1st 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Before 2025.07.01 will T-Mobile USA publicly announce a decision to drop Nokia as a RAN vendor? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Louisiana implement the "Ten Commandments in Classrooms" law by July 2025? Or will it be struck down in court? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Karina Milei be removed as General Secretariat of the Presidency before July 1st? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will the standalone Hulu app still exist on July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• When will Destiny go plus on subscribers? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will there be a hostile wooden cube at Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Greg Brockman returning to OpenAI. How long will he last? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will an NBA player score more than 81 points in a game before the end of the 2024-25 NBA season? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• What will be revealed in the newly released files regarding the JFK/MLK/RFK assassinations? [Add Answers] — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will the Magic: The Gathering card Leyline of the Guildpact be banned in any format by July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• If the TikTok ban takes effect, will ByteDance divest it OR shut it down in the U.S? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• By what factor will the cost for SotA SWE-agents drop from 2024 to 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will CosMc's have 15 or more open locations by July 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Kamala Harris announce she's running for governor of California before July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will NYC use an average of 1 Billion Gallons of water daily in the year 2024? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Biden be impeached before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Trump administration recommend removing fluoride from water by July 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will there be a SpaceX Starship launch in the second quarter of 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• What was Brad Spafford going to blow into pieces? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Which of the following people will be the Democratic nominee for New York City Mayor in 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Sof create a prediction market-related site before July 2025 — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Ask Yourself debates Parker before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will X, Meta, Snapchat, instagram, YouTube, twitch or TikTok ANNOUNCE a name change before the end of Q2 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Who will be the next Chief Technology Officer of OpenAI? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will the NJ vs Norcross charges trial be dropped / dismissed / thrown out before it goes to trial? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Polymarket take more steps to verify that US citizens are not trading on their website before July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 03:59 UTC
• If the French government faces a new no-confidence vote before July 2025, will it succeed? — closes 2025-07-02 04:59 UTC
• Will a Congress-confirmed 2025 cabinet pick resign or be removed before June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 04:59 UTC
• "The Verge": When will Ethereum use Verkle trees? — closes 2025-07-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Victory Wembanyama win the Defensive Player of the Year Award for the 2024-2025 NBA season? — closes 2025-07-02 04:59 UTC
• Will BART have installed the new full-body fare gates at all stations by July 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 04:59 UTC
• How heavy will the first object successfully delivered into orbit be on starship — closes 2025-07-02 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI dissolve by July 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 04:59 UTC
• Which division will win the 2024-2025 NHL Stanley Cup? — closes 2025-07-02 04:59 UTC
• Is this Igor Shesterkin's last season on the New York Rangers? — closes 2025-07-02 04:59 UTC
• Will a Canadian team win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup? — closes 2025-07-02 04:59 UTC
• Which years will Toronto Maple Leafs win a playoffs series? — closes 2025-07-02 04:59 UTC
• How many holdout machines will there be for BB(6) on 2025-07-01? — closes 2025-07-02 05:59 UTC
• Will a gatekeeper proof of concept be at least informally published by mid year 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme] — closes 2025-07-02 05:59 UTC
• In which season will I finish below first place for the first time? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Sora 2 be presented before the end of June 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Cerebras Systems IPO Date? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Gwern Branwen move to the Bay Area by 7/1/2025 — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Canva launch an initial public offering before July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Will the 2024-25 NBA MVP Have Played on the 2024 US Olympic Team? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• GPT 5 Exceeds Expectations — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Who will be the mayor of Oakland on June 30th 2025 — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• What Elo will a Four Player Chess (Free For All, Rapid) engine achieve by 2025-07-01? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Was David Knowles murdered? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• What total number of R21 malaria vaccine doses will be distributed in 2024? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• How much FLOP will be used to train the best language model with freely available weights on July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• For my bachelor party, which activities will most attendees report enjoying/being a good use of time... — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Will I have a convincing video call with a fully synthetic AI avatar before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Mira Murati work at an AI lab at the end of Q2 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Who will be on the cover of Madden NFL in 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• When will I find a job I'm satisfied with? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Will the Supreme Court strike down the Texas age verification law for online content? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Will the number of children vaccinated with 3 doses of the R21 malaria vaccine reach 5M before January 1st, 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 06:59 UTC
• Tesla gross profits. Is the long slow slide accelerating? — closes 2025-07-02 13:36 UTC
• When will China release the Taiwanese (and Indonesian) fishermen seized on July 2nd 2024? — closes 2025-07-02 15:59 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will a new VOC-classified covid variant cause at least 20k daily hospitalizations in US before July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-07-02 18:00 UTC
• Will I sleep before 9 pm any day of MOP? — closes 2025-07-02 20:59 UTC
• Will I reach a Manifold daily-quest streak of 100? — closes 2025-07-02 22:00 UTC
• By July 1, will the world break the current record (19) for total number of people in space simultaneously? — closes 2025-07-03 03:59 UTC
• @spiderduckpig mana net worth on July 1 — closes 2025-07-03 03:59 UTC
• Will Kirk Cousins be on the Falcons on July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-07-03 03:59 UTC
• Will Jair Bolsonaro be arrested before July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-07-03 04:59 UTC
• What will the Bank of Canada Prime Rate be at the end of Canada Day 2025? (7.20% at market creation) — closes 2025-07-03 05:59 UTC
• By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational? — closes 2025-07-03 05:59 UTC
• Will the Supreme Court find that Tennessee's SB1 (ban on transgender health care for minors) is constitutional? — closes 2025-07-03 14:01 UTC
• Will the Senate pass a bill limiting POTUS tariff authority before July 1? — closes 2025-07-03 23:59 UTC
• How many cars will Tesla deliver in Q2 2025? — closes 2025-07-03 23:59 UTC
• What will the unemployment rate be in June 2025? — closes 2025-07-03 23:59 UTC
• [Poll] Which drugs would give you a negative view of your President if they took it before a debate? Yes = Negative View — closes 2025-07-04 04:59 UTC
• Will anyone pay me to solve a problem for them? — closes 2025-07-04 05:59 UTC
• Will Robyn and Kody initiate a divorce by the end of season 19 of sister wives airs? — closes 2025-07-04 06:59 UTC
• What will be my 5K race time on July 4th? — closes 2025-07-04 07:00 UTC
• What will happen in Settled's Nightmare Mode OSRS series? — closes 2025-07-04 12:43 UTC
• Will Blue Origin land on the moon before July 4th, 2025? — closes 2025-07-04 13:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2025. — closes 2025-07-04 21:59 UTC
• Arrested for Tesla attacks: How many? — closes 2025-07-04 22:59 UTC
• King Charles abdicates before he dies — closes 2025-07-04 22:59 UTC
• Gold at $3500 by July 4th? — closes 2025-07-04 23:59 UTC
• Trump is clearly in the middle stage of Alzheimer's. In which year will he "step back from public appearances"? — closes 2025-07-05 03:59 UTC
• Will Qiaochu Yuan attend Vibecamp 2025? — closes 2025-07-05 03:59 UTC
• Trump voids Biden’s pardons? — closes 2025-07-05 03:59 UTC
• Will SCOTUS uphold the ATF's Final Rule on Privately Manufactured Firearms ("ghost guns")? — closes 2025-07-05 04:59 UTC
• Will X and TruthSocial announce a merger before July 4th? — closes 2025-07-05 06:59 UTC
• When will e2e long be default in openpilot? — closes 2025-07-05 06:59 UTC
• Will I be on the IChO 2025 team? — closes 2025-07-05 18:29 UTC
• Will GPT5 be released before July 1st 2025? — closes 2025-07-05 21:59 UTC
• Which prices will Apple stock (AAPL) hold above before staying below it, for a full week? — closes 2025-07-06 03:59 UTC
• Will the USA President have higher approval ratings than Manifold's leadership on July 4th 2025? (market index) — closes 2025-07-06 03:59 UTC
• Will Silksong be a Switch 2 launch title? — closes 2025-07-06 03:59 UTC
• Will a USA president die on the fourth of July in 2024 or 2025? — closes 2025-07-06 03:59 UTC
• What will the US Prime Rate be at the end of July 4, 2025? (8.50% at time of market creation) — closes 2025-07-06 05:59 UTC
• Stanford Medical School graduation ceremony 2025 - majority wears masks — closes 2025-07-06 06:59 UTC
• What score will I get on the 2025 AP Chemistry exam? — closes 2025-07-06 16:19 UTC
• Will I get a 5 on my AP Environmental Science exam? — closes 2025-07-06 19:24 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released before Jul 2025? — closes 2025-07-06 21:59 UTC
• Phil Hellmuth enters WSOP Main Event this year? — closes 2025-07-06 22:59 UTC
• How many tie-breaking Senate votes will JD Vance cast by June 30? — closes 2025-07-07 03:59 UTC
• At least one Valian loses their job involuntarily in the next three months — closes 2025-07-07 06:42 UTC
• [1000M Bounty] what are some good books about the Weimar Republic? — closes 2025-07-07 06:59 UTC
• Will the meltdown of the Tumbles Financial Complex be covered by a "large" podcast or news outlet? — closes 2025-07-07 14:14 UTC
• Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 weeks of his inauguration? — closes 2025-07-07 21:59 UTC
• Will I get a 5 on my AP Calculus BC exam? — closes 2025-07-08 01:39 UTC
• Will anyone drop out of Proof School in the next 2 years? — closes 2025-07-08 06:59 UTC
• Will I get more than four 5's out of my 7 AP exams this year? — closes 2025-07-08 13:02 UTC
• Will Bill Ackman's thought experiment about tariffs even roughly play out in real life? — closes 2025-07-09 22:59 UTC
• Will at least one of IMO problems mention anything related to Australia? — closes 2025-07-10 03:59 UTC
• Will an AI publicly accessible before IMO 2025 get the gold medal on it? — closes 2025-07-10 21:59 UTC
• How many combinatorics problems will there be on the 2025 International Math Olympiad (IMO)? — closes 2025-07-10 22:59 UTC
• Will I have a new crush at MOP 2025? — closes 2025-07-10 22:59 UTC
• More than 50% get 5s on AP Calc BC? — closes 2025-07-10 23:59 UTC
• Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano | Netflix — closes 2025-07-12 03:59 UTC
• Will Morris Chang make it to 94? — closes 2025-07-12 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump win the Election and Manchester City the Premier League 2024/2025? — closes 2025-07-12 21:59 UTC
• Will Zig reverse course on 'divorcing from LLVM' (within two years)? — closes 2025-07-13 06:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? ⚽ — closes 2025-07-13 21:59 UTC
• Will >1 person make a Manifold account as a result of my class presentation heavily promoting it? — closes 2025-07-13 21:59 UTC
• What will I get at IMO 2025? — closes 2025-07-13 22:59 UTC
• Weekly Trump impeachment markets - By which week will Trump be impeached for a third time? (May 18 - June 14) — closes 2025-07-13 23:59 UTC
• Federal AI preemption provision passes by July 14, 2025? — closes 2025-07-14 02:40 UTC
• Who Will Finish First in Group A of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? — closes 2025-07-14 02:59 UTC
• Paramount-Skydance merger approved by Trump administration? — closes 2025-07-14 03:10 UTC
• Which confederation will the winning team of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup belong to? — closes 2025-07-14 03:59 UTC
• Which hitter will lead Major League Baseball in homeruns (HR) at the 2025 All-Star Break? — closes 2025-07-14 04:59 UTC
• Will framing for permanent apartment construction start going up at People’s Park by July 1, 2025? — closes 2025-07-14 06:59 UTC
• When will Test finish Testing the Test of the Test? — closes 2025-07-14 06:59 UTC
• Will Anthropic's next model be Claude 3.8 or Claude 4? — closes 2025-07-14 20:27 UTC
• Another entry in the top 10 of largest protests/demonstrations in the US by July? — closes 2025-07-14 23:59 UTC
• Will I finish reading a book of quantum physics by July 15, 2025? — closes 2025-07-14 23:59 UTC
• Who Will Finish First in Group B of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? — closes 2025-07-15 02:59 UTC
• Who Will Finish First in Group H of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? — closes 2025-07-15 02:59 UTC
• Who Will Finish First in Group F of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? — closes 2025-07-15 02:59 UTC
• Who Will Finish First in Group G of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? — closes 2025-07-15 02:59 UTC
• Who Will Finish First in Group D of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? — closes 2025-07-15 02:59 UTC
• Who Will Finish First in Group E of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? — closes 2025-07-15 02:59 UTC
• Who Will Finish First in Group C of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? — closes 2025-07-15 02:59 UTC
• What cards from Modern Horizons 3 will be banned/restricted after release in any format within a year of release? — closes 2025-07-15 03:59 UTC
• Will a Wall St firm use prediction markets as an investment vehicle by July 14 2025 — closes 2025-07-15 06:59 UTC
• How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents? — closes 2025-07-15 06:59 UTC
• Will Luma AI release real-time video gen within a year? — closes 2025-07-15 11:59 UTC
• Doran starter for T1 in LCK summer? League of Legends team T1 — closes 2025-07-15 21:59 UTC
• How will Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd’s Friendship (2025) perform in terms of box office and critical reception? — closes 2025-07-15 22:59 UTC
• Before which date at midnight EDT in 2025 will any model conquer Pokémon Red or Blue? — closes 2025-07-15 22:59 UTC
• Will Harvard's federal funding be reinstated before July 15, 2025? — closes 2025-07-15 23:59 UTC
• Murderbot TV show on Apple TV+ renewed for a second season by July 15, 2025 — closes 2025-07-15 23:59 UTC
• Will the Supreme Court hold that the FCC Universal Service Fund violates the nondelegation doctrine? — closes 2025-07-16 00:00 UTC
• Will the American League Team win the 2025 MLB All Star Game? — closes 2025-07-16 02:30 UTC
• Which MLB team will have the most wins at the All-Star Break? — closes 2025-07-16 04:59 UTC
• Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2025-07-01? — closes 2025-07-16 05:59 UTC
• 🍫 Will cocoa prices reach $15,000/metric ton in H1 2025? — closes 2025-07-16 06:59 UTC
• Nintendo Switch 2 features pressure-sensitive triggers (ZR, ZL). — closes 2025-07-16 21:59 UTC
• Will there be an earthquake of at least 8.0 magnitude by July 15? — closes 2025-07-17 03:59 UTC
• Will Netanyahu stay the Prime Minister of Israel until July 15th 2025? — closes 2025-07-17 04:59 UTC
• Will the Taliban's opium ban last for two more years? — closes 2025-07-17 06:59 UTC
• California will experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by July 18, 2025? — closes 2025-07-18 00:00 UTC
• What will be the best result an LLM based model gets in the 2025 IMO under fair conditions? — closes 2025-07-18 06:59 UTC
• Which region will the winner of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup come from? — closes 2025-07-19 02:59 UTC
• Will Hulk Hogan work for Trump's administration by this time next year? — closes 2025-07-19 06:59 UTC
• Which manga series will finish before One Piece does? — closes 2025-07-19 21:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Las Vegas Freestyle Chess Grand Slam? — closes 2025-07-19 22:59 UTC
• First region where US initiates military operations by July 2025 — closes 2025-07-20 00:00 UTC
• Number of immigration-related executive orders issued by Trump in first 180 days of 2025 presidency — closes 2025-07-20 00:00 UTC
• Is this video of a 9/11 cheerleading routine AI generated? — closes 2025-07-20 03:59 UTC
• 2025 Wimbledon - Men’s singles winner? — closes 2025-07-20 20:59 UTC
• 2025 Wimbledon - Men’s singles - Finals & Selected matches — closes 2025-07-20 20:59 UTC
• 2025 Wimbledon - Women’s singles winner? — closes 2025-07-20 20:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Tour de France General Classification (Yellow Jersey)? — closes 2025-07-22 04:59 UTC
• New York City Council District 1 Democratic primary winner (2025) — closes 2025-07-22 22:59 UTC
• FAA finalizes new MOSAIC rule before AirVenture 2025 — closes 2025-07-23 00:00 UTC
• 🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden/Kamala in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2025-07-23 03:59 UTC
• Which players will make the final table at the 2025 World Series of Poker Main Event? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2025-07-23 03:59 UTC
• Will Americans' confidence in newspapers decline in 2025, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-07-23 06:59 UTC
• Will Americans' confidence in the Supreme Court decline in 2025, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-07-23 06:59 UTC
• Will Americans' confidence in the presidency decline in 2025, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-07-23 06:59 UTC
• Will Americans' overall confidence in US institutions decline in 2025, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-07-23 06:59 UTC
• Will Americans' confidence in large technology companies decline in 2025, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-07-23 06:59 UTC
• How many seats will Vox get in the next Spanish general election? — closes 2025-07-23 23:59 UTC
• Which of the following will I do first? — closes 2025-07-24 03:59 UTC
• Will I switch back to Google as default search engine within 90 days? — closes 2025-07-24 11:46 UTC
• How well does the US Physics Team perform at the 2025 IPhO? — closes 2025-07-24 23:59 UTC
• Who will be the next James Bond? — closes 2025-07-25 02:32 UTC
• Will Apple Intelligence be a bigger value add than Google Pixel's on-phone AI on 7/1/2025? — closes 2025-07-25 03:59 UTC
• Will I be on the 2025 US IPhO Team? — closes 2025-07-25 03:59 UTC
• Will I be on the 2025 US IPhO Team? — closes 2025-07-25 04:59 UTC
• What will happen in the H&R Block vs FTC situation? — closes 2025-07-25 04:59 UTC
• Will I reach a 365 day prediction streak? — closes 2025-07-25 04:59 UTC
• What will the Rotten Tomatoes score of "Superman" (2025) be? — closes 2025-07-26 03:59 UTC
• How many bank teller jobs will I apply to before getting hired? — closes 2025-07-26 03:59 UTC
• Will Julian Assange be alive one year after being freed? — closes 2025-07-26 03:59 UTC
• Will Jack Black and Kyle Gass perform together in the next year — closes 2025-07-26 06:59 UTC
• Top Chatbot Arena model uses hidden CoT on July 25th, 2025 — closes 2025-07-26 06:59 UTC
• Will EVO 2025 surpass EVO 2024's record of 10,000 unique competitors in an esports tournament? — closes 2025-07-27 03:59 UTC
• At least how many global companies will have a market cap of at least $1T on Jul 26, 2025? — closes 2025-07-27 03:59 UTC
• Will VanEck's Steel ETF ($SLX) be ≥ $100 by August 2025? — closes 2025-07-27 21:35 UTC
• Will Kai Jiang make IOI 2025? — closes 2025-07-27 22:59 UTC
• Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fall below 3.5% before July 28, 2025? — closes 2025-07-27 23:59 UTC
• Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury note exceed 4.5% at any point before July 28, 2025? — closes 2025-07-27 23:59 UTC
• Number of stages Tadej Pogačar wins in the 2025 Tour de France — closes 2025-07-27 23:59 UTC
• Which team will win the UEFA Women's Euro 2025 tournament? — closes 2025-07-28 03:59 UTC
• Will Argentina beat Spain? ⚽|🏆 Finalissima 2025 — closes 2025-07-28 03:59 UTC
• Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2025 Tour de France? — closes 2025-07-28 03:59 UTC
• Will Sam win Season Fourteen of Jet Lag: The Game? — closes 2025-07-28 23:59 UTC
• Golf: Who will win the 2025 Open Championship (British Open)? — closes 2025-07-29 03:59 UTC
• Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) — closes 2025-07-30 11:00 UTC
• How many CAO points will I score in the 2025 Leaving Certificate examinations? — closes 2025-07-30 23:59 UTC
• US real GDP growth in Q2 2025? — closes 2025-07-30 23:59 UTC
• Will I get top 10 at IMO? — closes 2025-07-30 23:59 UTC
• Which health benefits of exercise will be supported by major new research studies by July 2025? — closes 2025-07-31 00:00 UTC
• Total number of deportations under Donald Trump by June 30, 2025 — closes 2025-07-31 00:00 UTC
• The B-52s' 'Love Shack' re-enters Billboard Hot 100 by July 30, 2025? — closes 2025-07-31 00:00 UTC
• Average price premium of plant-based meat alternatives vs. conventional meat falls below 30% by July 2025 — closes 2025-07-31 00:00 UTC
• Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift on the 13th of any month? — closes 2025-07-31 00:59 UTC
• Will I get a tuition scholarship from my school? — closes 2025-07-31 03:06 UTC
• Will the Straw Hat Pirates land on Hachinosu (beehive) by the International Day of Friendship? (July 30 2025) — closes 2025-07-31 03:59 UTC
• Will Ford Q2, 2025 Gross Profit exceed Tesla's — closes 2025-07-31 05:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 NBA Championship? — closes 2025-07-31 06:59 UTC
• If I [Jose Luis Ricon] go to Vibecamp 2025, will I enjoy it? — closes 2025-07-31 06:59 UTC
• Will Apple close their Unionized store in Maryland before July 2025? — closes 2025-07-31 06:59 UTC
• [Anti-woke activism] How many anti-ESG proposals will large companies face in 2025 relative to 2024? — closes 2025-07-31 06:59 UTC
• US government accepts Boeing 747-8 as Air Force One? — closes 2025-07-31 07:24 UTC
• The NDIS "Assistance With Self-Care Activities - Standard -Weekday Daytime" unit rate will increase by more than 10%. — closes 2025-07-31 13:59 UTC
• How many people will be vaccinated with the R21 vaccine in 2024 — closes 2025-07-31 14:59 UTC
• What will I get on IMO? — closes 2025-07-31 18:14 UTC
• Will Lena Khan continue to serve as the FTC chair for another term under a Harris/Trump presidency? — closes 2025-07-31 18:29 UTC
• The Prince of Wales, the UK Royal Navy’s flagship is going on its first major deployment — closes 2025-07-31 18:32 UTC
• Will Pierre Poilievre win Battle River-Crowfoot byelection? — closes 2025-07-31 20:59 UTC
• Candidate from which Party will become the next president of Poland in 2025? — closes 2025-07-31 20:59 UTC
• Can Germany freeze AfD funding before August 2025? — closes 2025-07-31 21:59 UTC
• Will russian troops successfully remove the ukranian troops fron the Kursk region before August? — closes 2025-07-31 21:59 UTC
• Will we see multiple billion dollar religion startups by 2025? — closes 2025-07-31 21:59 UTC
• Is Being Gay Normal? — closes 2025-07-31 21:59 UTC
• Will anyone die due to radiation poisoning as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? — closes 2025-07-31 21:59 UTC
• How does Thresholding work in Alexander Wales web serial Thresholder? [Spoilers] — closes 2025-07-31 22:59 UTC
• Will economic inactivity in the UK be substantially worse (>=22.5%) in the 2025 Feb-Apr period? — closes 2025-07-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Net Migration to the UK be higher in 2024 than in 2023? — closes 2025-07-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Rust be the most admired language in the 2025 StackOverflow developer survey? — closes 2025-07-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Musk's cozying up to far the right continue to hurt Tesla sales? — closes 2025-07-31 22:59 UTC
• Does the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative remove DEI from their 'Our Approach' page before August 2025? — closes 2025-07-31 23:00 UTC
• What will I get at IMO 2025? — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Pete Hegseth resign as US Secretary of Defense before the end of July 2025? — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• Will @LuigiMangione's net worth exceed Ṁ20,000 before August? — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• Which company has best AI model end of July? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• Swiss Francs in Dollars exchange rate EOM July? — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Tumbles provide blood to Robin for mana before August? — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of July? — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• Hollow knight silk song released by August 2025 — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• Which countries or groups of countries will face 20%+ tariffs on most imports to the US between April 10 and July 31? — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• What will the UK employment rate be in July 2025? — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• How many G20 nations will implement capital controls or currency restrictions by July 2025? — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• LLM-SRBench more than 2000 downloads by August? — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• Which company has best AI model end of July? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) — closes 2025-07-31 23:59 UTC
• Elon Musk appears at a far-right political event before August 1, 2025 — closes 2025-08-01 00:00 UTC
• Will an AI image generation model successfully generate a proper chess board by July 31, 2025 — closes 2025-08-01 00:00 UTC
• German Bundestag election 2025 requires partial repetition in at least one district by August 1st 2025 — closes 2025-08-01 00:00 UTC
• Will the iPhone 17 include a model with no charging port? — closes 2025-08-01 02:59 UTC
• Will a problem on the 2025 IMO nontrivially use the fact that 2025 is a square? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Did the world mine more iron ore in 2024 than they did in 2023? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Which country will win the 2025 FIFA Beach Soccer World Cup? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Slay the Spire 2 be playable in Steam Early Access by the end of July 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• If Trump is re-elected will he face a third impeachment in the first 6 months of his presidency? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Hunter Biden spend a day in jail before the end of July 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• 🌭What will happen in July 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Barron Trump join a fraternity at NYU during his freshman year? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will a woman make the final table at the 2025 World Series of Poker main event? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin Reach $69,420 Before $128,700 ? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the AI Safety Clock reach 19 minutes to midnight by July 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Skibidi Toilet reach 100 episodes by the end of July 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Six months after Jimmy Carter dies, who will be the primary death market of choice for Manifold users to create/bet on? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the first Impulse Lab Induction Cooktops ship to regular consumers by the end of July 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will another CEO be assassinated before the next 5 school shootings? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• What will be the outcome of Twitter/X vs GARM & WFA antitrust lawsuit? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• 🆕What will be true about the next product from Prong.studio? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the winner of Street Fighter 6 at EVO 2025 be from Japan? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• What country will win the most medals at the Olympic Esports Games 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will any player get a blue card at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind at Epcot operate with a standby line after Test Track version 3 opens? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will all US troops be out of Syria by July 31, 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• AI IMO 2025: How many AI labs announce a Gold performance at the IMO in 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Tesla globally deliver more vehicles in the first half of 2025 than it did in the first half of 2024? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Jack Strominger make it to 100 years old? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the US Congress pass 2 or more bills in Jul 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 03:59 UTC
• Will I get off the UCLA waitlist? — closes 2025-08-01 04:26 UTC
• Alphabet: will the sum of the parts be greater than the whole? — closes 2025-08-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the % of Americans who have a favorable view of China increase in 2025 per Pew poll? — closes 2025-08-01 04:59 UTC
• NBA Title Winner from which quadrant of the bracket? — closes 2025-08-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mahmoud Abbas be President of the State of Palestine until the end of July 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 04:59 UTC
• If Venezuela invades Guyana, will any other country intervene militarily? — closes 2025-08-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone try to assasinate Donald Trump by the end of July? — closes 2025-08-01 05:08 UTC
• Will news that Travis Kelce cheated on Taylor Swift be revealed by July 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 05:59 UTC
• Who will buy TikTok? — closes 2025-08-01 05:59 UTC
• "I Used To Say Israel Was Not Committing A Genocide In Gaza. I was Wrong. This is why." like count? — closes 2025-08-01 06:39 UTC
• Will Carlsen return to the Championship if Dommaraju Gukesh wins the World Chess Championship? — closes 2025-08-01 06:59 UTC
• Will a quarter of Americans morally accept polygamy in 2025, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-08-01 06:59 UTC
• If we implement email sign in, will 3-month average signups increase by >=10% than the prior 3 month average? — closes 2025-08-01 06:59 UTC
• House of the Dragon Season 2 [Prop bets/Megamarket] — closes 2025-08-01 06:59 UTC
• What will Oregon's 2024 bottle return rate be? — closes 2025-08-01 06:59 UTC
• Will mlsim models outperform tinysim models by July 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 06:59 UTC
• Will more than 1.5 of the cats Destiny rehouses be eaten by a human before August 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 06:59 UTC
• Will >50% of the $200M federal grant allocated to the Presidio Trust be rescinded or reallocated by June 30, 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 06:59 UTC
• Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2025 than in 2024, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-08-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Lockheed Martin win the US Navy Future X Band Radar competition? — closes 2025-08-01 06:59 UTC
• Which of these reddit alternatives will see the greatest growth in the 2 years following July 1st 2023? — closes 2025-08-01 10:00 UTC
• Was the US already in a recession in July 2024? — closes 2025-08-01 13:59 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 17:00 UTC
• China/EU trade war by Aug 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 20:59 UTC
• Manifold, what’s 9 + 10? — closes 2025-08-01 21:19 UTC
• Fox News Reports Biden Officials Admit They Never Pressured Israel for Ceasefire — closes 2025-08-01 21:53 UTC
• Will GPT-5 like to delve? — closes 2025-08-01 21:59 UTC
• GPT-5 vs Grok-2+: who will be funnier? — closes 2025-08-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Hank Green support pausing or stopping AI development? — closes 2025-08-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Anthropic collapse or be poached/acquired by Aug 2025? (Ed Zitron's prediction) — closes 2025-08-01 21:59 UTC
• Will house prices in The Netherlands in Q2 2025 be higher than Q1? — closes 2025-08-01 21:59 UTC
• What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena? — closes 2025-08-01 21:59 UTC
• Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? — closes 2025-08-01 21:59 UTC
• Will the Lower Thames Crossing gain Development Consent? — closes 2025-08-01 22:59 UTC
• Trump administration defies SCOTUS on AEA? — closes 2025-08-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Trump broadly maintain the January 2025 AI diffusion export controls? — closes 2025-08-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Carson the Terrier place top 3 in the 2025 World Dog Surfing Championships? — closes 2025-08-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Zach leave microsoft and the country by July 2025 — closes 2025-08-01 23:59 UTC
• Credible evidence linking Jack Dorsey to Satoshi Nakamoto emerges before August 1, 2025 — closes 2025-08-02 00:00 UTC
• A politician-hosted podcast will rank in Spotify's Top 100 Politics podcasts by August 1, 2025 — closes 2025-08-02 00:00 UTC
• How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's impoundment actions if case is heard by August 1st 2025? — closes 2025-08-02 00:00 UTC
• Will OIbF exist in 2025? — closes 2025-08-02 00:49 UTC
• Will a human win the annual 2025 Human vs Horse "Marathon" Race? — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• Who will be the Democratic nominee for Manhattan Borough President in 2025? — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• Who will be selected for the Kennedy Center Honors in 2025? — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%? — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin hit 150k before July? — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 launch on a Tuesday? — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine and Russia reach a ceasefire -- in agreement or in practice -- by August 2025? 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• Will the Big Taping Truth Trial detect a significant (p<0.05) result in any of the primary outcome measures? — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Toronto rent be lower by August? — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• Who will be the Democratic Party nominee for New York City Comptroller in 2025? — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• How many Big Taping Truth Trial participants will complete at least 75% of the 30 assignment days? — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 have function-calling ability to some o1-like reasoning model, upon release? — closes 2025-08-02 03:59 UTC
• Will a major hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Cat. 3+) form in the Atlantic basin before July 31, 2025? — closes 2025-08-02 04:59 UTC
• [200M Subsidy] Will Xcel Energy be found liable for damages related to the 2021 Marshall Fire? — closes 2025-08-02 05:59 UTC
• Who of Pogacar or Vingegaard will have more Tour de France GC wins by the end of the 2025 edition? — closes 2025-08-02 05:59 UTC
• Will the Democrats control the House at any time before August 2025? — closes 2025-08-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Klebér Saarenpää be the head coach of Helsingborgs IF until 2025-08-01? — closes 2025-08-02 06:59 UTC
• Will any top 50 US university replace the essay with a video format for admitting the high school class of 2025? — closes 2025-08-02 06:59 UTC
• If Netanyahu is PM at the end of July 2025, will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire have lasted according to the agreement? — closes 2025-08-02 06:59 UTC
• Will credible evidence emerge that supports Musk's claim of $500 billion in social security and other entitlement fraud? — closes 2025-08-02 06:59 UTC
• Will the result of the 2025 Los Angeles County homeless count be greater than 80k ? — closes 2025-08-02 06:59 UTC
• Will a Wind Waker re-release for the Switch 2 exist within 3 months of the Switch 2's release? — closes 2025-08-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Andrew Cuomo run in a special election to replace Eric Adams? — closes 2025-08-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Virat Kohli be retired from all forms of international cricket by July 2025? — closes 2025-08-02 06:59 UTC
• Dwarkesh Patel implicated in conflict of interest scandal by August 4, 2025 — closes 2025-08-03 23:59 UTC
• How many official game events at EVO will be won by Japanese players? — closes 2025-08-04 03:55 UTC
• How many official game events at EVO will be won by American players? — closes 2025-08-04 03:55 UTC
• The next time Bitcoin crosses $100k USD, will it reach $110k USD within 72 hours? — closes 2025-08-04 03:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Tour de France Femmes? — closes 2025-08-04 03:59 UTC
• Will i get a 4 on calc bc — closes 2025-08-04 04:57 UTC
• Will Alberta Tech make a crying and apologizing video before Aug 3, 2025? — closes 2025-08-04 05:59 UTC
• How many EVO 2025 main game grand finals will contain "mirror matches"? — closes 2025-08-04 23:59 UTC
• Magnitude 6.0+ earthquake in Southern California before August 5, 2025 — closes 2025-08-05 00:00 UTC
• A U.S. state repeals mandatory front seatbelt laws by August 2025 — closes 2025-08-05 00:00 UTC
• Will my prescribed meds significantly help with my ADHD? — closes 2025-08-05 20:17 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released before Aug 2025? — closes 2025-08-06 21:59 UTC
• Abdullah Öcalan released from prison before August 7, 2025 — closes 2025-08-06 23:59 UTC
• Will the employees at USAID be reinstated? — closes 2025-08-07 06:59 UTC
• Will P. Diddy be found guilty of all charges? — closes 2025-08-07 18:00 UTC
• Will the NFL ban the Tush Push before next season? — closes 2025-08-08 03:59 UTC
• Will AOH1996 get FDA acceleration? — closes 2025-08-08 06:59 UTC
• Will TSLA reach >$ 550 before 8pm EST on 8/8/25? — closes 2025-08-08 12:00 UTC
• Will Bitcoin BTC be above $88888 on 8/8? — closes 2025-08-09 03:59 UTC
• Will Nvidia stock NVDA be worth $188.8 or more at the end of 8/8? — closes 2025-08-09 03:59 UTC
• Will TSLA reach $575 before 8pm EST on 8/8/2025? — closes 2025-08-09 03:59 UTC
• The Moana-Off: Which Moana will make the most dough-ana? 🎥🌊👧 — closes 2025-08-09 06:59 UTC
• Will Sober (Roblox on Linux) be discontinued? — closes 2025-08-09 06:59 UTC
• What will be the result of the England vs India Test Series in 2025? — closes 2025-08-09 20:59 UTC
• When will the next red rising book(7) be released? — closes 2025-08-09 22:14 UTC
• How many new (romantic) situationships/relationships will occur during the 2025 Simons Summer Research Program? — closes 2025-08-09 23:59 UTC
• Will I eat ass in the next 24 months? — closes 2025-08-10 06:59 UTC
• If Kansas City loses Super Bowl LIX, will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift break up? — closes 2025-08-10 06:59 UTC
• Will Anna Magpie and Lucy Farnik reach their one year anniversary? — closes 2025-08-10 22:59 UTC
• Will the LK-99 market be below 4% for the day? — closes 2025-08-11 03:59 UTC
• Will the new porn-site age verification laws (US) survive in court? — closes 2025-08-11 03:59 UTC
• What medal will I get at the 2025 International Olympiad in Astronomy & Astrophysics (IOAA)? — closes 2025-08-11 22:59 UTC
• What will be the price of a dozen eggs in July 2025? — closes 2025-08-11 23:59 UTC
• Will Kylie Jenner get engaged to or break up with Timothée Chalamet before August 10? — closes 2025-08-12 03:59 UTC
• Will the Chinese film "Ne Zha 2" outgross "Avatar: The Way of Water" (globally) within 6 months? (>$2.3B) — closes 2025-08-12 06:59 UTC
• Will the Hobbit cozy life sim Tales of the Shire get a score of 77 or above on OpenCritic? — closes 2025-08-13 06:59 UTC
• Link actor in Legend of Zelda? — closes 2025-08-13 21:59 UTC
• Will Apple add another service to it’s Apple One subscription before Aug 13th 2025? — closes 2025-08-13 22:59 UTC
• Duo, the Duolingo Owl mascot, officially returns by August 14, 2025 — closes 2025-08-14 00:00 UTC
• Will the DC Attorney General win his antitrust lawsuit against DC landlords? — closes 2025-08-14 03:59 UTC
• Will "Winners of 2024–25 Champions League" beat "Winners of 2024–25 Europa League"? ⚽ | 🏆 2025 UEFA Super Cup — closes 2025-08-14 03:59 UTC
• Will T Coronae Borealis reach magnitude 5.0 before August 15, 2025? — closes 2025-08-14 23:59 UTC
• What will the generic ballot average be on August 1, 2025? — closes 2025-08-15 03:59 UTC
• Will the linked market average >= 40% in September 2025? — closes 2025-08-15 18:00 UTC
• Will I go to the movies at least 30 times within a year? — closes 2025-08-15 21:59 UTC
• what will happen when I cycle across the USA this summer [add answers]? — closes 2025-08-15 22:59 UTC
• Which novella will win a Hugo award in 2025 — closes 2025-08-15 23:59 UTC
• Which novelette will win a Hugo award in 2025 — closes 2025-08-15 23:59 UTC
• Which novel will win a Hugo award in 2025 — closes 2025-08-15 23:59 UTC
• Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2024? — closes 2025-08-16 05:59 UTC
• Will Trump be charged with Witness Tampering? — closes 2025-08-16 06:59 UTC
• Which short story will win a Hugo award in 2025 — closes 2025-08-16 14:59 UTC
• Kommer Geiris til å ha innflyttingsfest før Maiken og Robert — closes 2025-08-16 15:05 UTC
• Which club will lose its 'Big Six' status first? — closes 2025-08-16 21:59 UTC
• How many bald managers will the Premier League have at the start of the 25/26 season? — closes 2025-08-17 00:19 UTC
• Will Mike Tomlin still be coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers at the start of the 2025/26 season? — closes 2025-08-17 03:59 UTC
• Will Nick Sirianni still be coach of the Philadelphia Eagles at the start of the 2025/26 season? — closes 2025-08-17 03:59 UTC
• Will both Noel and Liam appear at ~~all~~ *at least* 14 shows on the Oasis live '25 tour? — closes 2025-08-18 13:59 UTC
• Which Oasis Live '25 tour shows will Noel and Liam both appear at? — closes 2025-08-18 22:59 UTC
• German authorities initiate legal proceedings against Musk for election interference by August 19, 2025 — closes 2025-08-19 00:00 UTC
• Will the price of Bitcoin have tripled 2 years from today? — closes 2025-08-20 03:59 UTC
• Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025? — closes 2025-08-20 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025? — closes 2025-08-20 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025? — closes 2025-08-20 22:59 UTC
• Will I make it to a 1000 day manifold streak? — closes 2025-08-22 03:59 UTC
• Will Norstein finish The Overcoat before his death? — closes 2025-08-22 04:59 UTC
• Will August 22nd be a UK Bank Holiday? — closes 2025-08-22 22:59 UTC
• Will Universal Studios Florida attendance increase year over year in 2024 — closes 2025-08-23 03:59 UTC
• If Musk and Zuck fight, will they be natty? — closes 2025-08-24 03:59 UTC
• Assuming RFK Jr. endorses Trump, will he remain married to Cheryl Hines? — closes 2025-08-24 06:59 UTC
• Will Chappell Roan put out new music in the next year? — closes 2025-08-25 06:59 UTC
• Will Senator Scott Wiener be employed by an AI company like Anthropic within the next 12 months? — closes 2025-08-25 06:59 UTC
• Will @realDonaldTrump celebrate the TWO YEAR ANNIVERSARY of his MUG SHOT on X? — closes 2025-08-25 21:59 UTC
• How fast will I run in the 5k by August 25, 2025? — closes 2025-08-26 06:59 UTC
• Will any of the 19 defendants in Fulton County Trump case be removed to federal court? — closes 2025-08-27 03:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine suffer nuclear power plant meltdowns during the Russia war? — closes 2025-08-27 03:59 UTC
• If Oasis reforms, will the band stay together for a full year? — closes 2025-08-28 06:59 UTC
• Will Doctor Doom appear in any live Marvel Studios film before the release of the upcoming Fantastic Four movie? — closes 2025-08-28 15:59 UTC
• Which teams will qualify for UEFA Champions League 2025-26 [Please add teams] — closes 2025-08-28 23:59 UTC
• SCOTUS rules Trump's birthright citizenship executive order unconstitutional (fully or partly) by Sept 1st 2025 — closes 2025-08-30 00:00 UTC
• Will Wikifunctions (the latest Wikimedia project) be a top 50k website in 2 years? — closes 2025-08-30 21:59 UTC
• Will Starship Flight 9 re-fly a booster? — closes 2025-08-30 22:59 UTC
• S&P 500 closes below 4,000 before August 31, 2025 — closes 2025-08-30 23:59 UTC
• Will a collaborative robot (cobot) cause a serious workplace injury before September 1, 2025 — closes 2025-08-31 00:00 UTC
• Will NYC still charge congestion pricing specifically from northern Manhattan to lower Manhattan at the end of August? — closes 2025-08-31 03:59 UTC
• Will the 311 hotline in SF receive fewer requests for “street and sidewalk cleaning” in May 2025 than in May 2024? — closes 2025-08-31 03:59 UTC
• Will I cave and buy a Nintendo switch 2? — closes 2025-08-31 10:38 UTC
• Will Max Lucid's heart break within 6 months? (""""Non sexual Dominatrix"""") — closes 2025-08-31 16:59 UTC
• Pete Buttigieg announces Michigan gubernatorial run before September 1, 2025? — closes 2025-08-31 16:59 UTC
• Will Labour u-turn on the Winter Fuel Allowance within two months? — closes 2025-08-31 19:21 UTC
• Will Ukraine liberate 85% of its 3 regions out of 5 currently controlled by Russia by the 31th of August? — closes 2025-08-31 20:59 UTC
• Will an Israeli fly to IOI 2025? — closes 2025-08-31 20:59 UTC
• When will the GNOSIA anime adaptation be released? — closes 2025-08-31 21:59 UTC
• Will it be possible to acquire or assemble a Framework laptop with a trackpoint? — closes 2025-08-31 21:59 UTC
• Manifold Users Attempt Mongol Rally 2025 — closes 2025-08-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Rupert Lowe be a Reform UK MP on 1st September 2025? — closes 2025-08-31 22:59 UTC
• Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding? — closes 2025-08-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk buy TikTok? — closes 2025-08-31 23:00 UTC
• Will Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner get married by the end of August 2025? — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• What cards will be used in the winning deck of Pokemon TCG World Championship 2025 [ADD ANSWERS!] — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• Which MLB team will have the most 2025 regular season wins by the end of August? — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I complete the 'Couch to 5k Plan' by August 31st? — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a major Linux distribution other than Ubuntu announce plans to adopt Rust coreutils by September 2025? — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• Will US Q2 GDP be positive? — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• Will vibes.lol launch before August 31st, 2025? — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• Summer of 2025: Major Unrest in the USA? — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• Vagina Museum open in August 2025? — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• The Free Press surpasses 10M monthly viewers by August 31, 2025? — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• Which Pokémon type will have the most representation in the top 4 decks at the 2025 Pokémon TCG World Championship? — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a Team Fortress 2 sequel or spin-off game released or announced before September 2025? — closes 2025-08-31 23:59 UTC
• A major poetry competition will explicitly ban AI-generated submissions before September 2025 — closes 2025-09-01 00:00 UTC
• Altay tank enters Turkish Armed Forces inventory before September 1st 2025 — closes 2025-09-01 00:00 UTC
• Major data breach (>100k records) of Treasury Department data occurs before September 1st 2025 — closes 2025-09-01 00:00 UTC
• Data breach of Treasury Department data occurs before September 1st 2025 — closes 2025-09-01 00:00 UTC
• Will armed conflict break out in Bosnia and Herzegovina before September 1, 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 00:00 UTC
• Red Scare podcast hosts interview a major political figure before September 1, 2025 — closes 2025-09-01 00:00 UTC
• Base will surpass 1 million daily active users before September 1, 2025 — closes 2025-09-01 00:00 UTC
• IDX Composite drops more than 5% within 7 days conditional on Sri Mulyani's departure — closes 2025-09-01 00:00 UTC
• Bot-generated content makes up over 30% of social media engagement on a major platform by September 2025 — closes 2025-09-01 00:00 UTC
• Will USAMTS still be a way to qualify for USA(J)MO in the 2025-2026 MAA cycle? — closes 2025-09-01 03:59 UTC
• 🏖️What will happen in August 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2025-09-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump express support for the 'nuclear option" of breaking legislative filibuster, before September 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 03:59 UTC
• Who will win the Democratic primary in the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election? — closes 2025-09-01 03:59 UTC
• Me in NYC, prop bets — closes 2025-09-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Nick Sirianni be the head coach of the Eagles at the start of the 2025 season? — closes 2025-09-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the BlueDevils win Drum Core International in 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Nippon Steel’s deal to acquire U.S. Steel gain all required regulatory approvals? — closes 2025-09-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the AI Safety Clock reach 18 minutes to midnight by August 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the US Congress pass 2 or more bills in Aug 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 03:59 UTC
• India's Chandrayaan-3 moon mission will discover a new source of water on the moon by 2025 — closes 2025-09-01 04:00 UTC
• Tony Evers announces third term run as Governor of Wisconsin by EOM August 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 04:59 UTC
• Is Hanson right that "we are about to learn lots"? — closes 2025-09-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a news article about Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Dion Sanders be the head coach of the Colorado Buffalos for the 2025 season? — closes 2025-09-01 05:59 UTC
• Will I do a single unassisted pullup before Aug 31, 2025 — closes 2025-09-01 05:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release? — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• Will American opinion of AI improve in 2025, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• Will California State Route 1 thru Big Sur be open before September 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• SF Air Quality Significantly improves in 2024 — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI? — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• Will cryonics be noticeably more prominent in the public consciousness in August 2025 than it is now? — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• Will David Austin Walsh get a tenure track offer? — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5? — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• Who will Conor McGregor fight before he retires? — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Kyiv remain in the 10 least livable cities in 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• Will we use our gallon tub of mayo before it expires in August — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Americans believe AI does more good than harm in 2025, according to Gallup? — closes 2025-09-01 06:59 UTC
• When Will Giving What We Can Reach 10k Active 10% Pledgers? — closes 2025-09-01 14:59 UTC
• Which NFL roster will Aaron Rodgers be on on September 1st 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 15:59 UTC
• Which team will QB Daniel Jones be under contract with on September 1st 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 15:59 UTC
• Which team will QB Sam Darnold be under contract with on September 1st 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 15:59 UTC
• Which Premier League teams will play in the UEFA Champions league 2025-26? — closes 2025-09-01 18:29 UTC
• Who will win the Women's 2024 IFSC European Championship in Boulder & Lead combined? — closes 2025-09-01 21:59 UTC
• I apply and get accepted to a university with >1400 average SAT. — closes 2025-09-01 21:59 UTC
• Who will win the Women's 2024 IFSC European Championship in Bouldering? — closes 2025-09-01 21:59 UTC
• What is the cause of the recent tremors observed on the Danish island of Bornholm? — closes 2025-09-01 21:59 UTC
• How many millionaires will leave the UK by 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 22:59 UTC
• How much weight will I lose in one year on Mounjaro (Tirzepatide)? — closes 2025-09-01 22:59 UTC
• Will GTA 6 have cryptocurrency / crypto support in the game? — closes 2025-09-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Bluesky have 50 million users by September 2025? (~triple what it is mid-November) — closes 2025-09-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Sparse Autoencoders be successfully used on a downstream task in the next year and beat baselines? — closes 2025-09-01 22:59 UTC
• Stanford's legacy admission rate drops by >25% in 2024 admissions cycle compared to 2023 — closes 2025-09-01 23:00 UTC
• Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer? — closes 2025-09-01 23:59 UTC
• Will I reach 10k profit by September 2025? — closes 2025-09-01 23:59 UTC
• Supreme Court rules against Trump administration in at least 3 major cases by September 1, 2025 — closes 2025-09-01 23:59 UTC
• An AI model published prior to the 2025 IMO achieves gold medal performance — closes 2025-09-02 00:00 UTC
• Zvi gets a Nintendo Switch 2 by August 1? — closes 2025-09-02 00:00 UTC
• Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets? — closes 2025-09-02 00:59 UTC
• Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets? — closes 2025-09-02 00:59 UTC
• If there's a recession before election day 2024, will a Democrat win the presidential election? — closes 2025-09-02 02:59 UTC
• When will quiver.trade release its decentralization docs? — closes 2025-09-02 02:59 UTC
• When will quiver.trade publicly release its QVR token? — closes 2025-09-02 02:59 UTC
• Will more than 50 (~1%) Title IV institutions close in the 2024-2025 school year? — closes 2025-09-02 03:59 UTC
• Will the US Senate use the 'Nuclear Option' to break the legislative filibuster before September 2025? — closes 2025-09-02 03:59 UTC
• If the GOP win a trifecta, will the Senate use the 'Nuclear Option' to break legislative filibuster before Sept '25? — closes 2025-09-02 03:59 UTC
• Which of these books will I really like? — closes 2025-09-02 03:59 UTC
• Will any current or future ACC member schools announce plans to leave the conference by September 2025? — closes 2025-09-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Harvard end legacy admissions by 2025? — closes 2025-09-02 04:59 UTC
• Puff Daddy is handed a jail sentence of over 5 years incarceration by 9/1/2025. — closes 2025-09-02 05:59 UTC
• What will be the default search engine in iOS 19? — closes 2025-09-02 05:59 UTC
• Which happens first: Starship / Superheavy recovery or second crewed Starliner flight? — closes 2025-09-02 05:59 UTC
• Will a US state take an electric utility to court for a major wildfire occurring in the next 2y? — closes 2025-09-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Kyle Whittingham be the head coach of U of Utah football team before the start of the 2025 season? — closes 2025-09-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Season 3 of Netflix’s Avatar: the Last Airbender be rated higher than season 1? — closes 2025-09-02 06:59 UTC
• Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025. — closes 2025-09-02 06:59 UTC
• OpenAI releases a new version of Dall-E before a new major version of GPT — closes 2025-09-02 06:59 UTC
• Nishad Singh - How many years in his sentence? — closes 2025-09-02 06:59 UTC
• Will there be 2 or more combinatorics problems on IMO 2025 x Will AI get a gold medal on IMO 2025? — closes 2025-09-02 06:59 UTC
• What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 24 months? — closes 2025-09-02 06:59 UTC
• Will I be pregnant by this time next year? — closes 2025-09-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Season 2 of Netflix’s Avatar: the Last Airbender be rated higher than season 1? — closes 2025-09-02 06:59 UTC
• Will I be a cracked VFX artist in 2025? Mentor's response: — closes 2025-09-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Lois McMaster Bujold write another work set in the Vorkosigan universe? — closes 2025-09-02 06:59 UTC
• At which club will Florian Wirtz be under contract on Sept 2nd 2025? — closes 2025-09-02 20:31 UTC
• ⚽🏟️ Which club will Jamal Musiala sign for next? (besides Bayern Munich) — closes 2025-09-02 22:59 UTC
• Mass Layoffs from empty shelves / Trump tariff policy by September 2025? 🇺🇸🏦🦅🏛️📥📊 — closes 2025-09-03 20:27 UTC
• Aaron Rodgers signs with the Minnesota Vikings before the start of the 2025 NFL season — closes 2025-09-04 00:00 UTC
• Will Oasis complete their 14 tour dates in July and August of 2025? — closes 2025-09-04 06:59 UTC
• Which NFL team will Myles Garrett be on at the start of the 2025 season? — closes 2025-09-05 03:59 UTC
• Will I get tFUS by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-09-05 03:59 UTC
• Aaron Rodgers future (add answers) — closes 2025-09-05 03:59 UTC
• Will Tua Tagovailoa retire from the NFL by the start of the 2025 regular season? — closes 2025-09-05 03:59 UTC
• Who will I next go on 3 dates with? — closes 2025-09-06 04:17 UTC
• Coinbase will tokenize its COIN stock on Base by September 7, 2025 — closes 2025-09-07 00:00 UTC
• Daniel Jones starts Week 1 for Colts in 2025 NFL season — closes 2025-09-07 00:00 UTC
• DeepSeek surpasses ChatGPT in monthly active users by September 7, 2025 — closes 2025-09-07 00:00 UTC
• Which QB will start Week One for the New Orleans Saints? — closes 2025-09-07 01:45 UTC
• Which quarterback will start Week One for the Cleveland Browns? — closes 2025-09-07 02:01 UTC
• Who is involved in the Russian influencer scheme (Doppelganger / Good Old USA), according to court documents? — closes 2025-09-07 05:59 UTC
• Who is on the Doppelganger / Good Old USA *anti-influencer* list of Russian opponents according to court documents? — closes 2025-09-07 05:59 UTC
• Shedeur Sanders starts week 1 for the Browns? — closes 2025-09-07 16:38 UTC
• Will I only take cold showers at home for 1 year? (streak rules apply) — closes 2025-09-07 21:59 UTC
• Which quarterbacks will be on the Browns' 53 man roster on gameday Week 1 of the 2025 season? — closes 2025-09-07 23:59 UTC
• Netherlands will implement a fully regulated cannabis supply chain for coffee shops by September 8, 2025 — closes 2025-09-08 00:00 UTC
• Beyond Meat announces a new product line before September 8, 2025 — closes 2025-09-08 00:00 UTC
• How many U.S. states will pass legislation related to transgender rights before September 8, 2025? — closes 2025-09-08 00:00 UTC
• Will the President sign a reconciliation bill by September 1? — closes 2025-09-08 23:59 UTC
• (Week 1) NFL 2025 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide — closes 2025-09-08 23:59 UTC
• Which NFL team will be the final one to remain winless in the 2025 season? — closes 2025-09-09 02:40 UTC
• Will TRON Lightcycle / Run have the longest wait time of any ride in Magic Kingdom in its first year of Standby Lines? — closes 2025-09-09 03:59 UTC
• Which car manufacturer will sell a SAE level 3 feature next after BMW? — closes 2025-09-09 21:59 UTC
• 2025 NFL Offseason - The Quarterback Carousel — closes 2025-09-10 03:59 UTC
• Will the pull up world record be broken within a year of it being set? (today) — closes 2025-09-10 03:59 UTC
• Which actor will play the Sixteenth Doctor Who? — closes 2025-09-10 03:59 UTC
• Which calamities will affect the Future Turtles camp at Burning Man in 2025? — closes 2025-09-10 06:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released before Sep 2025? — closes 2025-09-10 21:59 UTC
• Will Lord Miles walk across the US? — closes 2025-09-11 03:59 UTC
• Will Jannik Sinner win all four Grand Slams in 2025? — closes 2025-09-11 03:59 UTC
• Will a Jose Luis ricon bot be successfully trained to answer a Quora answer by 2024 — closes 2025-09-11 06:59 UTC
• What will be true of the iPhone 2025? — closes 2025-09-11 06:59 UTC
• Will the EU require virtual currency purchases to display real-money equivalents within a year? — closes 2025-09-11 21:59 UTC
• Is the LK-99 breakthrough somehow related to the recent revalations regarding aliens visiting earth? — closes 2025-09-12 03:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift publicly reveal she is engaged to Kelce before the end of September 11th 2025? — closes 2025-09-12 03:59 UTC
• Will Unity stock be up in 2 years? — closes 2025-09-13 06:59 UTC
• will I transfer before fall 2025? — closes 2025-09-13 06:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be one of Time's '100 Most Influential People in AI' in 2025? — closes 2025-09-13 11:59 UTC
• Netanyahu ceases to be prime minister before a permanent Israel-Hamas ceasefire is reached? — closes 2025-09-15 00:00 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Vuelta a Espana? — closes 2025-09-15 03:59 UTC
• 2025 US Open - Women’s singles winner? — closes 2025-09-15 20:59 UTC
• 2025 US Open - Men’s singles winner? — closes 2025-09-15 20:59 UTC
• What is the "golden orb" found in deep see by NOAA? — closes 2025-09-15 21:59 UTC
• (Week 2) NFL 2025 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide — closes 2025-09-16 01:34 UTC
• Will [redacted] get a CitSec Return Offer? — closes 2025-09-16 03:59 UTC
• Does any eating window reduce chance of cancer related death? — closes 2025-09-16 04:59 UTC
• Front Cover of 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' changes before release? — closes 2025-09-16 11:52 UTC
• Will I gain any significant insight from reading Eliezer Yudkowsky's new book? — closes 2025-09-16 21:02 UTC
• How many pre-orders will Yudkowsky and Soares' book receive? (Threshold) — closes 2025-09-17 03:59 UTC
• How many pre-orders will Yudkowsky and Soares' book receive? — closes 2025-09-17 03:59 UTC
• Will the iPhone 17 Plus have a display size smaller than 6.7”? — closes 2025-09-17 06:59 UTC
• In 8 months from time of posting, will I consider myself more 'transmedicalist' than I am now? — closes 2025-09-18 03:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis ricon YouTube himself doing an ito integral in 2024 — closes 2025-09-18 06:59 UTC
• 300M subsidy: Will there be a bank run on manifold (within 12 months of cash payouts starting)? — closes 2025-09-18 13:59 UTC
• Will the percent of Pakistanis in extreme poverty be above 5 percent in 2023? — closes 2025-09-18 22:59 UTC
• When DeepSeek drops r2, will the NASDAQ drop? — closes 2025-09-19 03:59 UTC
• Will Sam Darnold be the starter for the Minnesota Vikings going into the *2025* NFL Season? — closes 2025-09-19 15:59 UTC
• Which political position will Ekrem İmamoğlu hold by September 19, 2025? — closes 2025-09-19 23:59 UTC
• Will Texas experience blackouts this Summer? — closes 2025-09-22 23:59 UTC
• Crystal Mall in Waterford, CT will close before September 23, 2025 — closes 2025-09-22 23:59 UTC
• (Week 3) NFL 2025 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide — closes 2025-09-23 01:05 UTC
• Li gets her paper accepted to be published in the fe2024-fe2025 year — closes 2025-09-23 06:59 UTC
• How many live babies belonging to those who attended fe2024 will be present at fe2025? — closes 2025-09-23 06:59 UTC
• Compared to 2023, will violent crime in the US decrease in 2024? — closes 2025-09-23 06:59 UTC
• Will A be at her current firm at fall equinox 2025? — closes 2025-09-23 06:59 UTC
• Among the 5 women at fe2024, how many will have spent over 2 months pregnant over fe2024-fe2025 year? — closes 2025-09-23 06:59 UTC
• How will the 2024 South Korean medical crisis end? — closes 2025-09-23 21:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine be invaded by Poland by close date? — closes 2025-09-23 23:59 UTC
• United States Recession by End of Q2? — closes 2025-09-25 11:59 UTC
• Is The Legend Of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom "arguably Turing complete" (at least as much as Tears of the Kingdom)? — closes 2025-09-25 15:59 UTC
• Will I still have a Readwise subscription 6 months from now? — closes 2025-09-26 03:59 UTC
• Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die first? — closes 2025-09-26 04:59 UTC
• Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months? — closes 2025-09-26 05:59 UTC
• Will Iran hit Israel within 11 months of being attacked by them? — closes 2025-09-27 03:59 UTC
• Will the party that wins the next Australian federal election have a majority in the Senate? — closes 2025-09-27 14:29 UTC
• Which New York Mets player will have the highest OPS in the 2025 regular season (minimum 300 plate appearances)? — closes 2025-09-29 03:59 UTC
• Will Juan Soto spend more than 15 days on the injured list during the 2025 regular season? — closes 2025-09-29 03:59 UTC
• Will a rookie play 100+ games for the Mets in 2025? — closes 2025-09-29 03:59 UTC
• Will USA win 2025 Ryder Cup? — closes 2025-09-29 05:59 UTC
• Total Walt Disney World theme park attendance in Q3 2025 higher than Q3 2024 — closes 2025-09-30 00:00 UTC
• EPA budget for water quality programs cut by ≥10% in FY2026 budget — closes 2025-09-30 00:00 UTC
• Will xAI's acquisition of X be challenged ? — closes 2025-09-30 00:59 UTC
• Across, 2025 will a majority of EA funding rounds have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met? — closes 2025-09-30 03:59 UTC
• Will I be able to grow cucamelons from seedling to fruit? — closes 2025-09-30 06:29 UTC
• When will Drag x Drive be released for the Nintendo Switch 2? — closes 2025-09-30 13:22 UTC
• How many games will the Los Angeles Dodgers win in the 2025 MLB Regular Season? — closes 2025-09-30 14:29 UTC
• How many games will Mookie Betts start at shortstop? — closes 2025-09-30 14:59 UTC
• Can Jessica From LIC+ Finish 50 XLBs at DTF in one sitting? — closes 2025-09-30 15:59 UTC
• Will Dak Prescott be a Dallas Cowboy in Week One of the *2025* NFL Season? — closes 2025-09-30 15:59 UTC
• New York Giants 2025 Week One: Daniel Jones vs Brian Daboll — closes 2025-09-30 15:59 UTC
• Dallas Cowboys 2025 Week One: Dak Prescott vs Mike McCarthy — closes 2025-09-30 15:59 UTC
• Does Putin have doppelgangers? — closes 2025-09-30 17:59 UTC
• Will Tesla's robotaxi be involved in a motor vehicle collision within 90 days of launch? — closes 2025-09-30 18:19 UTC
• Will NASA Juno mission get extended past Sept. 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 20:59 UTC
• Tennis players to win at least one Grand Slam tournament (singles) in 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 20:59 UTC
• Tennis player(s) to win the most Grand Slam tournaments (singles) in 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 20:59 UTC
• Will the Jonas Gahr Støre government survive until the 2025 elections have been completed? — closes 2025-09-30 21:59 UTC
• Will the South African government expel the US ambassador? — closes 2025-09-30 21:59 UTC
• Will the recent change to the law on federal election that just passed the Bundestag be overturned by the Federal Court? — closes 2025-09-30 21:59 UTC
• Will a new Jobro join the JOJOLands team before chapter 30? — closes 2025-09-30 21:59 UTC
• Who sabotaged the train tracks at the start of the Olympics? — closes 2025-09-30 21:59 UTC
• Will an AI receive an IgNobel Prize in 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 21:59 UTC
• Will I have a green card by September 30, 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 21:59 UTC
• Will Joe Weisenthal's ice maker still work in six months? — closes 2025-09-30 22:16 UTC
• Will I practice 10-finger typing for 30 minutes per day until October? — closes 2025-09-30 22:59 UTC
• Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in Q4 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 22:59 UTC
• Will the Rockies break the MLB record for most losses in a single season? — closes 2025-09-30 22:59 UTC
• What MLB team will finish the 2025 regular season with the highest positive run differential? — closes 2025-09-30 22:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI file for an IPO or direct listing with the SEC before October 1, 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 23:59 UTC
• Will FY2025 US NSF funding (in trillions) be lower than FY2019 NSF funding? — closes 2025-09-30 23:59 UTC
• What will be mentioned in RFK Jr's HHS report on the cause autism, if released in September? — closes 2025-09-30 23:59 UTC
• Borderlands 4 (PC) Metacritic score at least 85 by October 1, 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 23:59 UTC
• Major media use 'Cultural Revolution' for US events by Sep 30, 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 23:59 UTC
• Will more than 2 people from the Good Judgment Project or IARPA be at Manifest 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Trump's net approval rating be under -5% on Sept 30th? — closes 2025-09-30 23:59 UTC
• President Trump visits China before October 1, 2025 — closes 2025-09-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Meta's Llama family of models reach 2 billion downloads by September 30, 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 23:59 UTC
• Will China announce willingness to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine before October 1, 2025? — closes 2025-09-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Jeffrey Goldberg be arrested over the Signal leak by the 1st of October 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 00:00 UTC
• Will federal employees accepting deferred resignation receive full promised compensation? — closes 2025-10-01 00:00 UTC
• Percentage decrease in NIH overhead rates implemented in FY 2025 legislation — closes 2025-10-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Mexico reform its National Electoral Institute by the end of Claudia Sheinbaum's 1st year in office? — closes 2025-10-01 02:59 UTC
• Will flooding in North Carolina result in semiconductor manufacturing issues? — closes 2025-10-01 03:59 UTC
• What Event Will Happen First: SpaceX 101 Launches OR Jimmy Carter Becomes 101 Years Old In 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 03:59 UTC
• What MLB team will have the best win/loss record in baseball for the 2025 season — closes 2025-10-01 03:59 UTC
• Will AI wipe out humanity before Q4 2025 — closes 2025-10-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the Chicago White Sox break their own MLB record for losses in a season? — closes 2025-10-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the AI Safety Clock reach 17 minutes to midnight by September 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 03:59 UTC
• Will a baseball player in the MLB hit over 62 home runs in the 2025 MLB season? — closes 2025-10-01 03:59 UTC
• 🍎What will happen in September 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2025-10-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Artemis 2 return to Earth with all of its crew alive? — closes 2025-10-01 03:59 UTC
• What books will my son enjoy reading? — closes 2025-10-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the US Congress pass 2 or more bills in Sep 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 03:59 UTC
• Pete Buttigieg announces Michigan Senate run before October 1, 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 04:00 UTC
• 🏀Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) 2025 Regular Season Games Live — closes 2025-10-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Max Tegmark have a cameo role saving humanity from the Daleks in Doctor Who (series 15) — closes 2025-10-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Yann LeCun have a cameo role saving humanity from the Daleks in Doctor Who (series 15) — closes 2025-10-01 05:59 UTC
• Will there be a reboot of The Office (US) by end of September 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 06:59 UTC
• Will I visit MIT during Aug/Sep 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Israeli troops still be in Lebanon one year after entering? 🇮🇱🇱🇧🪖 — closes 2025-10-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the Dodgers have the best record in the MLB in 2025? ⚾️🧢🏆 — closes 2025-10-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Squid Game season 3 have higher average IMDB episode rating than season 2? — closes 2025-10-01 06:59 UTC
• Which of Liverpool's Salah, VVD and Trent will extend their contract beyond 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 06:59 UTC
• What will be the outcome of the TicketMaster/Live Nation anti-trust lawsuit by the DoJ? — closes 2025-10-01 06:59 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will Norway announce a referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in Sept. 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 10:00 UTC
• Which team will be the 2025 CPBL Second-Half Champion? (Taiwan Baseball) — closes 2025-10-01 15:59 UTC
• What will be the final standings of the 2025 CPBL regular season? (Taiwan Baseball) — closes 2025-10-01 15:59 UTC
• Will manuscript typeset with Typst be accepted in major journals by Oct. 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 21:59 UTC
• Which of the following parties will receive the most votes in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election? — closes 2025-10-01 21:59 UTC
• Who will win the the 2025 Olympia bodybuilding competition (Open class) — closes 2025-10-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Petr Fiala serve a full term as prime minister of Czechia? — closes 2025-10-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire with an intended duration of at least 28 days before October 1st, 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 21:59 UTC
• Is the holy knight that appeared in elbaf shanks the Yonko? — closes 2025-10-01 21:59 UTC
• Who will win the the 2025 Olympia bodybuilding competition (Classic Physique class) — closes 2025-10-01 21:59 UTC
• Meta-Learning Compositionality (MLC) in state of the art AI models by Oct. 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 21:59 UTC
• Effective Altruist purge at Jane Street before Oct. 2025 — closes 2025-10-01 21:59 UTC
• When will the Rubin telescope achieve first light? — closes 2025-10-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market trading volume exceed M$10 million before Q4, 2025? — closes 2025-10-01 22:59 UTC
• Which upcoming 2025 horror movie wins the triple crown: fans, critics, cash? — closes 2025-10-01 22:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)? — closes 2025-10-01 22:59 UTC
• Brazilian Congressman Glauber Braga's mandate revoked by Chamber of Deputies? — closes 2025-10-01 23:43 UTC
• Which superhero movie released between 4/1 and 9/1, 2025 will earn the highest Superhero Success Score (SSS)? — closes 2025-10-01 23:59 UTC
• Will RimWorld Release a new DLC before the 1st of October 2025 — closes 2025-10-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Apple eliminate the “Plus” model from the iPhone 17 lineup? — closes 2025-10-02 00:00 UTC
• Which upcoming family movie will perform best across reviews and box office? — closes 2025-10-02 01:35 UTC
• Will the "AI get gold on any IMO by the end of 2025" market resolve YES before the 2025 IMO? — closes 2025-10-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Jake Auchincloss try to become a leader in the Democratic Party? — closes 2025-10-02 03:59 UTC
• Which Trump opponents will face official DOJ investigations by October 1st, 2025? — closes 2025-10-02 03:59 UTC
• Will the Plaza Stage in CommuniCore Plaza at Epcot be abandoned or reconfigured by October 2025? — closes 2025-10-02 03:59 UTC
• What will be true of the first Enhanced Games? — closes 2025-10-02 03:59 UTC
• Which countries will mention AI in their 2025 UNGA debate speeches? — closes 2025-10-02 03:59 UTC
• NFL coaches off-season market 🏈🎠 — closes 2025-10-02 03:59 UTC
• Which Canadian Political Parties are preferable to be elected in 2025 — closes 2025-10-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Scott Wiener's SB 53 become law? — closes 2025-10-02 05:59 UTC
• Will there be a successful non-confidence vote in the Canadian Parliament before the next general election in Oct2025 — closes 2025-10-02 05:59 UTC
• If I carpet my room in astroturf, will I regret it in 2yr / when I move? — closes 2025-10-02 06:59 UTC
• How many seconds will Sora take to generate 10 seconds of video? — closes 2025-10-02 06:59 UTC
• Does Bing restrict medical queries in the US on October 1 2025? — closes 2025-10-02 06:59 UTC
• If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times? — closes 2025-10-02 06:59 UTC
• Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion? — closes 2025-10-02 06:59 UTC
• Ubisoft will be either acquired or taken private by END of Q3 2025 — closes 2025-10-02 06:59 UTC
• Will there be a famous incident where someone slips and falls on a banana peel between now and October 2025? — closes 2025-10-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Mattel stock (MAT) be above 25 USD on October 1st 2025? — closes 2025-10-02 06:59 UTC
• Will US Border Patrol seize more fentanyl in 2025 than in 2024? — closes 2025-10-02 06:59 UTC
• Does Bing restrict medical queries in Belgium, EU on October 1 2025? — closes 2025-10-02 06:59 UTC
• In Jan 2025, Manifold will think the UK banning the XL bully was the right idea [Yes% in poll] — closes 2025-10-02 06:59 UTC
• How much fWAR will Shohei Ohtani accumulate in the 2025 MLB regular season? — closes 2025-10-02 14:29 UTC
• Will Min Aung Hlaing or his military successor cease to be the leader of Myanmar before October 1st, 2025? — closes 2025-10-02 21:59 UTC
• Will Euphoria season 3 premiere before Zendaya turns 29? (September 1st, 2025) — closes 2025-10-03 06:59 UTC
• By 2025 Jun, we will think "Ukraine is still taking significant ground, or has won" [Resolves to Poll] — closes 2025-10-03 06:59 UTC
• In 2025 Jan, the UK AI summit will have been effective at AI safety? [Resolves to manifold poll] — closes 2025-10-03 06:59 UTC
• The 2023 UK AI Summit was effective [Resolves to manifold poll] — closes 2025-10-03 06:59 UTC
• Will Shohei Ohtani get injured in the MLB 2025 Season? — closes 2025-10-04 03:59 UTC
• Will both the American League and National League have a qualified player above 1.000 OPS during the 2025 MLB season? — closes 2025-10-04 04:59 UTC
• How many Major League Baseball teams will win 100+ games in the 2025 regular season? — closes 2025-10-04 04:59 UTC
• How many MLB teams will lose 100 or more games during the 2025 regular season? — closes 2025-10-04 04:59 UTC
• Which teams will make the 2025 MLB Postseason? (Division Series) — closes 2025-10-04 06:59 UTC
• Which team will win the 2025 AFL Premiership? — closes 2025-10-04 13:59 UTC
• Will we get AGI before July 1st 2025? — closes 2025-10-04 21:59 UTC
• Daily Sports ⬇️ Ranked Coinflips ~24/7 MLB Baseball NBA Basketball NHL Playoffs ATP WTA Tennis IPL Cricket Soccer — closes 2025-10-04 23:59 UTC
• Which MLB hitters will achieve a 30/30 season in 2025? — closes 2025-10-05 04:59 UTC
• Will at least one Major League Baseball pitcher log 300 or more strikeouts in the 2025 regular season? — closes 2025-10-05 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a banking crisis in the United States before the midterms? — closes 2025-10-05 06:59 UTC
• [Let's Play] Minesweeper! [DRAFT MARKET BET AT YOUR RISK] — closes 2025-10-05 06:59 UTC
• Which club will win the 2025 AFL Premiership? — closes 2025-10-05 12:59 UTC
• Which team in the NL West will finish the 2025 MLB regular season with the best win-loss record? — closes 2025-10-05 23:59 UTC
• Will Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee finish the 2025 regular season with a sub-four ERA? — closes 2025-10-05 23:59 UTC
• Will Aaron Judge hit more than 62 home runs in the 2025 MLB season? — closes 2025-10-05 23:59 UTC
• Will Whoopi Goldberg announce retirement from 'The View' before October 6, 2025? — closes 2025-10-06 00:00 UTC
• Will Yoyo Yuan, cassox, adic_9, tom donoghue,Luca Rade or Alex Zhu try transcranial cross-frequency stimulation in 2025? — closes 2025-10-06 04:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2025? — closes 2025-10-06 21:59 UTC
• Will Duane “Keffe D” Davis be convicted for the murder of Tupac — closes 2025-10-07 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Supreme Court hear a case involving Elon Musk in the 2024-2025 session? — closes 2025-10-07 06:59 UTC
• Will a deepfake impersonating a White House official lead to a military incident involving US troops by October 7, 2025? — closes 2025-10-07 23:59 UTC
• Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2025? — closes 2025-10-08 01:59 UTC
• Will the Israel-Gaza war last more than 2 years? — closes 2025-10-08 03:59 UTC
• 🇮🇷🇮🇱 Will Iranian leadership or Israeli leadership change first? — closes 2025-10-08 03:59 UTC
• Will more than 11k objects be launched into space in 2025? — closes 2025-10-08 03:59 UTC
• Israel's response to the attack on Oct 7 was... — closes 2025-10-08 04:59 UTC
• Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon? — closes 2025-10-08 06:59 UTC
• On the second anniversary of October 7th attacks, will the Israel-Hamas war still be ongoing? — closes 2025-10-08 06:59 UTC
• Will Felicity be French level 7 by Oct 8, 2025? — closes 2025-10-09 03:59 UTC
• Russian forces establish sustained presence in Sumy region by October 9, 2025? — closes 2025-10-09 23:59 UTC
• Will Brent Honeywell Jr. pitch at least one inning in the MLB in the 2025 regular season? — closes 2025-10-09 23:59 UTC
• Who will end the season with the most fWAR on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2025 MLB regular season? — closes 2025-10-09 23:59 UTC
• How many home runs will Tommy Edman hit in the 2025 MLB regular season? — closes 2025-10-09 23:59 UTC
• Will Google be broken into separate companies, by October 9th, 2025? — closes 2025-10-10 03:59 UTC
• Will Apple allow anyone to add third-party Watch faces to Apple Watch by 2024? — closes 2025-10-10 03:59 UTC
• Will Wayne Brown be re-elected as Auckland mayor? — closes 2025-10-10 11:00 UTC
• How many Home Runs will Shohei Ohtani hit in the 2025 MLB regular season? — closes 2025-10-10 13:29 UTC
• How many innings will Shohei Ohtani pitch in the 2025 MLB regular season? — closes 2025-10-10 13:29 UTC
• Will Harrison manage to obtain and maintain a relationship from before this bash to next bash (2025) — closes 2025-10-10 13:59 UTC
• Will TSLA reach >$690 before 8pm EST 10/10 2025 — closes 2025-10-10 19:59 UTC
• Will there be more MacArthur Fellows in 2025 than in 2024? — closes 2025-10-11 03:59 UTC
• Will Scottie Barnes be a Toronto Raptor at the start of the 2025-26 NBA season? — closes 2025-10-11 03:59 UTC
• Will independent analysis confirm the GOP's report that 10%-27% of NSF grants now prioritize DEI-related qualities? — closes 2025-10-11 03:59 UTC
• MLB: Will the MLB league batting average surpass .245? — closes 2025-10-11 05:00 UTC
• Does taking a multivitamin cause me to gain weight? — closes 2025-10-11 18:38 UTC
• what will be the most bet on awnser?2 — closes 2025-10-13 06:59 UTC
• Will Trump restore Columbus Day? — closes 2025-10-14 01:32 UTC
• May the german Federal Police prevent an activist travelling to a protest in another country for reputation reasons? — closes 2025-10-14 21:59 UTC
• False flag incident against the U.S. framing Latin American gang before October 14? — closes 2025-10-14 23:59 UTC
• X.AI releases a Grok-powered code editor before October 16, 2025 — closes 2025-10-15 00:00 UTC
• What do you predict Sam Bankman-Fried's net worth will be on Nov 16, 2025? (i.e., ~3 years from the FTX crises) — closes 2025-10-15 03:59 UTC
• Will any WordPress or WP plugin infra fork have significant market share one year from today? — closes 2025-10-16 06:59 UTC
• パブコメ提出時にマイナンバーカードが必須になる？ — closes 2025-10-16 12:10 UTC
• Yudkowsky & Soares change the book cover | The book is a NYT bestseller — closes 2025-10-16 13:02 UTC
• Will the U.S. close at least 10 embassies in Africa before October 16, 2025? — closes 2025-10-16 23:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk suspend or resign from his Department of Government Efficiency role by October 15? — closes 2025-10-17 03:59 UTC
• Will Grant Williams be among the starting five for a team in the playoffs before the 2025-2026 NBA season? — closes 2025-10-17 03:59 UTC
• E3 snap back Iran nuclear deal sanctions by October 18, 2025? — closes 2025-10-17 23:59 UTC
• What will the topic of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine be? — closes 2025-10-18 03:59 UTC
• Is Trump faking his dementia? — closes 2025-10-18 21:59 UTC
• How many NBA championships will each team win in 2025-2034? — closes 2025-10-18 22:59 UTC
• Will Jacob rintamaki get a girlfriend by eoy2025 — closes 2025-10-19 03:59 UTC
• How many wins will the Bengals have after five games in 2025? — closes 2025-10-19 06:12 UTC
• Who will win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2025? — closes 2025-10-19 06:59 UTC
• Is Kim Dotcom a Russian agent? — closes 2025-10-19 22:59 UTC
• Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 be related to the Palestine conflict? — closes 2025-10-20 06:59 UTC
• Will the next federal Canadian election go to the liberals? — closes 2025-10-20 07:59 UTC
• Will Justin Trudeau lead the Liberal Party in the next federal election in Canada? — closes 2025-10-20 21:59 UTC
• Will Justin Trudeau remarry before October 20, 2025? — closes 2025-10-21 03:59 UTC
• Will Pierre Poilievre win the 2025 Canadian federal election? — closes 2025-10-21 03:59 UTC
• Will Guillaume Verdon/BasedBeffJezos vote Conservative/Pierre Poilievre in the 45th Canadian Federal Election? — closes 2025-10-21 06:59 UTC
• Will the supermassive dark star candidates observed by JWST exhibit spectroscopy consistent with dark stars? — closes 2025-10-21 06:59 UTC
• OpenPhil's credibility will be much lower in Jan 2025 than Oct 2023 — closes 2025-10-21 22:59 UTC
• What will Canada PM Mark Carney do before the next Canadian election? — closes 2025-10-22 03:59 UTC
• Will over-reliance on AI predictions lead to the next major stock market crash? — closes 2025-10-22 06:59 UTC
• Will Meloni's presidency last at least 3 consecutive years? — closes 2025-10-22 21:59 UTC
• In the next EA survey cause prioritisation results, will "Animal welfare" score higher than "Global poverty/health" — closes 2025-10-23 22:59 UTC
• Will any US congressperson or senator say "Vriska did nothing wrong" before 10/25? — closes 2025-10-25 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump golf for at least 25% of his first 6 months? — closes 2025-10-25 16:53 UTC
• Will Amol Rajan continue to be the host of the University Challenge through till the end of 2026? — closes 2025-10-25 18:29 UTC
• Will Olaf Scholz remain the Chancellor of Germany until the end of 2021-2025 term? — closes 2025-10-25 23:00 UTC
• Where will the Oakland A’s play the majority of their home games in 2025? — closes 2025-10-26 06:59 UTC
• Will less McDonald's ice cream machines be broken in one year? — closes 2025-10-26 06:59 UTC
• Will Olaf Scholz remain chancellor of Germany after the next federal election? — closes 2025-10-26 22:59 UTC
• US Congress bans AI political deepfakes before October 27, 2025? — closes 2025-10-26 23:59 UTC
• Will AMC have any large rule changes in 2026? — closes 2025-10-27 03:59 UTC
• How many people will follow Scott Alexander's example and donate a kidney? — closes 2025-10-27 06:59 UTC
• How many distinct schemes are there for predicting a number on Manifold? — closes 2025-10-28 06:59 UTC
• Will Bill Gates (68) have another pie thrown in his face before he turns 70? — closes 2025-10-28 22:59 UTC
• Who will win 2025 MLB ALCS? ⚾ (American League Championship Series) — closes 2025-10-29 03:59 UTC
• Who will win 2025 MLB NLCS? ⚾ (National League Championship Series) — closes 2025-10-29 03:59 UTC
• Will the Liberal/National Coalition win more seats in the House of Representatives in the next Australian federal election than it did in the 2022 Australian federal election? — closes 2025-10-29 11:59 UTC
• Will I be able to type at 45wpm with only my left hand by 2025-10-29 — closes 2025-10-29 17:57 UTC
• At least 10,000 North Korean soldiers deployed in the Russia/Ukraine war by Oct 2025 — closes 2025-10-30 15:59 UTC
• Who is the "top TV sports presenter" who has been arrested for child rape in the UK? — closes 2025-10-30 23:59 UTC
• Which of these four rare events will happen in the 2025 Major League Baseball season? — closes 2025-10-31 03:59 UTC
• Will the FBI report that US hate crimes in 2024 were up over 2023? — closes 2025-10-31 03:59 UTC
• Will Rob Lucci betray/defect the Marines? — closes 2025-10-31 10:25 UTC
• Simon Birmingham will take leadership of the federal Liberal Party in Australia within one month of the next election. — closes 2025-10-31 12:59 UTC
• Will the Cleveland Guardians make the playoffs again in the 2025 MLB season? — closes 2025-10-31 14:59 UTC
• Will GPT-6 be released before 2026? — closes 2025-10-31 18:29 UTC
• Will GPT-6 be released before 2025? — closes 2025-10-31 18:29 UTC
• Will there be a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, even if temporary, before the end of Halloween 2025? — closes 2025-10-31 20:08 UTC
• Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of Halloween 2025? — closes 2025-10-31 21:18 UTC
• What will Germany's defense budget be for 2025? (excluding Zeitenwende!) — closes 2025-10-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Přísaha or Motoristé sobě gain seats in the next Czech parliament? — closes 2025-10-31 22:59 UTC
• Major League Baseball ⚾️ (MLB) Regular Season Games LIVE — closes 2025-10-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will win 2025 Polish presidential election? — closes 2025-10-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the IMF loan more money to Argentina ? — closes 2025-10-31 23:59 UTC
• What famous celebrities will be called to testify in Sean “Diddy” Combs federal criminal trial? — closes 2025-10-31 23:59 UTC
• When will Matt Clifford first become the UK Prime Minister? — closes 2025-10-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Ryder Cup ? — closes 2025-10-31 23:59 UTC
• Shohei Ohtani hits more than 55 home runs in 2025 MLB season? — closes 2025-10-31 23:59 UTC
• AI Safety Clock at 16 minutes to midnight by October 2025? — closes 2025-10-31 23:59 UTC
• Which Anthropic co-founders will still be at Anthropic by November 2025? — closes 2025-11-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Prince William and Kate Middleton divorce before Halloween 2025? — closes 2025-11-01 02:47 UTC
• Will Python have partial string pattern matching in 3.14? — closes 2025-11-01 03:59 UTC
• Will federal employees attempt to stage a strike before October 31, 2025? — closes 2025-11-01 03:59 UTC
• What will happen to OpenAI next year? — closes 2025-11-01 03:59 UTC
• 🏀 Men’s College Basketball props (Eye on College Basketball podcast play-along) — closes 2025-11-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the average rental price for a studio in Hoboken NJ be higher than one in Jersey City at the end of Halloween 2025? — closes 2025-11-01 03:59 UTC
• Will I be employed by my current company for at least 1 full year? — closes 2025-11-01 03:59 UTC
• Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist? — closes 2025-11-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the 2025 US federal deficit be >$1.7T, and which party will win the 2024 Presidential election? — closes 2025-11-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the average rental price for a studio in Hoboken NJ be higher than one in Jersey City at the end of Halloween 2025? — closes 2025-11-01 03:59 UTC
• What will happen to OpenAI next year? — closes 2025-11-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the US Congress pass 2 or more bills in Oct 2025? — closes 2025-11-01 03:59 UTC
• Will my friend’s altcoin portfolio outperform bitcoin between Halloween 2024 to Halloween 2025? — closes 2025-11-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the 2025 MLB World Series winner be from the lower half of team payrolls? (See Description) — closes 2025-11-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an ASO or RCS stage race use timed segments for the mountain classification before the end of the 2025 UCI season? — closes 2025-11-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kanno Yoko produce an anime soundtrack before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-11-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift appear on Only Murders in the Building? — closes 2025-11-01 06:59 UTC
• What will be the next program to be added to GiveWell's top charities list? — closes 2025-11-01 06:59 UTC
• Which movie will have a higher domestic box office: Freakier Friday or Lilo & Stitch? — closes 2025-11-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Michael Caine be in Christopher Nolan’s next film? — closes 2025-11-01 06:59 UTC
• How many Hamas combatants will be killed in the 2023 Israel-Hamas war — closes 2025-11-01 06:59 UTC
• Will my halloween costume 2025 be the yeezy swastika t-shirt and brown face paint (realistic blackface) to go as Kanye? — closes 2025-11-01 14:59 UTC
• Which team will win the 2025 CPBL Playoff Series? (Taiwan Baseball) — closes 2025-11-01 15:59 UTC
• Which team will win the 2025 Taiwan Series? (Baseball) — closes 2025-11-01 15:59 UTC
• Which Dota 2 team will win The International 2025? — closes 2025-11-01 20:59 UTC
• Who will mary first? — closes 2025-11-01 22:59 UTC
• Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht to receive 4% - 4,9% of the vote in 2025 Bundestag election? — closes 2025-11-01 22:59 UTC
• Who will be elected President of Ireland in the next Irish presidential election? — closes 2025-11-01 23:59 UTC
• Papal conclave invalidated due to simony before November 2, 2025? — closes 2025-11-01 23:59 UTC
• What will be the IRS limit for IRA contributions in 2026? — closes 2025-11-02 02:59 UTC
• Will I be able to go to Goulds in GTA6? — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Will the 2025 US federal deficit be >$1.7T? — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe 2025 Predictions/Hot Takes [LRCP Previews] — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Visma-Lease a Bike 2025 Predictions/Hot Takes [LRCP Previews] — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• What will be true about the next person to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2025? — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Jayco-AlUla 2025 Predictions/Hot Takes [LRCP Previews] — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Pew Research’s moving average for, “Public Trust in Government”, fall below 11 percent in 2025? — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale 2025 Predictions/Hot Takes [LRCP Previews] — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Intermarche-Wanty 2025 Predictions/Hot Takes [LRCP Previews] — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Lidl-Trek 2025 Predictions/Hot Takes [LRCP Previews] — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• UAE Team Emirates 2025 Predictions/Hot Takes [LRCP Previews] — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Public opinion, late 2025: Out-of-control AI becoming a threat to humanity, a real threat? — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Bahrain Victorious 2025 Predictions/Hot Takes [LRCP Previews] — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Alpecin-Deceuninck 2025 Predictions/Hot Takes [LRCP Previews] — closes 2025-11-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Elia Viviani win more UCI cycling races than Caleb Ewan in the 2025 season? — closes 2025-11-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the Maryland Cycling Classic return in 2025? — closes 2025-11-02 04:59 UTC
• Will MLB hitter Luis Arraez win a batting title in either the AL or NL in 2025? — closes 2025-11-02 04:59 UTC
• On LMSys, what will be the difference between the top model and GPT-4-1106 on Jan 1 2026? — closes 2025-11-02 05:59 UTC
• Where will I work on 2025-11-01? — closes 2025-11-02 06:59 UTC
• Will a cryptocurrency mining tax pass congress before the midterms, as proposed by Biden? — closes 2025-11-02 06:59 UTC
• Does Kepler-167e have a moon? — closes 2025-11-02 12:59 UTC
• Will Anthony Albanese remain the leader of the Australian Labor Party through to the end of October 2025? — closes 2025-11-02 13:29 UTC
• Will Guntur Iqbal still be employed at Bappenas on 1 November 2025? — closes 2025-11-02 16:59 UTC
• How much USD will a Canadian dollar be worth on Nov 1, 2025? — closes 2025-11-03 04:59 UTC
• Will this year’s MLB World Series winner be from a city east of the Mississippi River? — closes 2025-11-03 05:59 UTC
• Which team will win the 2025 MLB World Series? — closes 2025-11-03 07:59 UTC
• Will the US distribute a broadly available vaccine for the 2025-26 flu season by November 1, 2025? — closes 2025-11-03 07:59 UTC
• Will Abigail Spanberger become Virginia Governor? — closes 2025-11-03 13:59 UTC
• Which Driver will be the 2025 Nascar Cup Series Champion? — closes 2025-11-04 04:59 UTC
• Will Boston Mayor Michelle Wu be reelected in 2025? — closes 2025-11-04 04:59 UTC
• Will a blank-slate AI prove the infinitude of primes by 2025-11-03? — closes 2025-11-04 05:59 UTC
• AOC endorses Zohran Mamdani for NYC mayor? — closes 2025-11-04 17:08 UTC
• Ganondorf actor in Legend of Zelda? — closes 2025-11-04 22:59 UTC
• Will Boston Mayor Michelle Wu step down before the end of her first term? — closes 2025-11-04 22:59 UTC
• S&P 500 closes above 6000 before 2026 midterms? — closes 2025-11-04 23:59 UTC
• Under which party will Eric Adams appear on the 2025 NYC mayoral election ballot? — closes 2025-11-05 04:59 UTC
• Who will the mayor of Roswell, Georgia be after the 2025 election? — closes 2025-11-05 04:59 UTC
• Will henry (@arithmoquine) become BFF with one of elon musk's kids by EOY2025? — closes 2025-11-05 04:59 UTC
• Who will come in SECOND in the 2025 Seattle Mayoral Election? — closes 2025-11-05 07:59 UTC
• New Jersey Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2025? — closes 2025-11-05 07:59 UTC
• Virginia Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2025? — closes 2025-11-05 07:59 UTC
• Will Eric Adams appear on the general election ballot for the 2025 New York City Mayoral Election? — closes 2025-11-05 23:59 UTC
• Trump's drug price controls remain in effect through November 5, 2025 — closes 2025-11-05 23:59 UTC
• San Diego County Supervisor District 1 Winner (2025 Special Election) — closes 2025-11-05 23:59 UTC
• Will Spanberger (or whoever ends up being the Dem nominee) win Virginia's gubernatorial race by double digits? — closes 2025-11-05 23:59 UTC
• Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election? — closes 2025-11-06 05:59 UTC
• Who will win the NYC mayoral special election, if Eric Adams resigns? — closes 2025-11-06 05:59 UTC
• Will any US state attempt to secede from the union within one year of the 2024 election? — closes 2025-11-06 06:59 UTC
• Who will be elected mayor of New York City in 2025? — closes 2025-11-06 07:59 UTC
• Will Eric Adams be re-elected mayor of New York City in 2025? — closes 2025-11-06 07:59 UTC
• Will Andrew Cuomo be elected as mayor of New York City? — closes 2025-11-06 15:59 UTC
• Will a republican be elected as the next mayor of New York City in 2025? — closes 2025-11-06 15:59 UTC
• Will more people die in wars in 2024 than in 2023? — closes 2025-11-06 20:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released before Nov 2025? — closes 2025-11-06 22:59 UTC
• Will all cycling Grand Tour winners in 2025 be of different nationalities? — closes 2025-11-06 22:59 UTC
• Will Aliens be discovered in the next three years? — closes 2025-11-07 06:59 UTC
• Will I be able to predict my partner better than she can predict me? (M$50 bounty for good questions.) — closes 2025-11-07 07:59 UTC
• Will Marvel's Wolverine get a better Metacritic score than Marvel's Blade? — closes 2025-11-07 07:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin BTC reach $111,111 by 11/1/25? (November 1, 2025) — closes 2025-11-07 16:40 UTC
• Which political party will get a plurality of votes in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election? — closes 2025-11-07 22:59 UTC
• 2025 MLB season includes a day where all division leaders lose? — closes 2025-11-07 23:59 UTC
• Which of the following MLB pitchers will finish the 2025 season with 6.0+ bWAR? — closes 2025-11-08 05:59 UTC
• Which of the following position players/hitters will finish the 2025 MLB season with 7.0+ bWAR? — closes 2025-11-08 05:59 UTC
• Which 2024 MLB Rookie of the Year candidate will have the best sophomore season? — closes 2025-11-08 05:59 UTC
• Which division will yield the 2025 MLB World Series winner? — closes 2025-11-08 05:59 UTC
• Will 42 or fewer games be played during the 2025 MLB Postseason? — closes 2025-11-08 23:59 UTC
• Will Oasis break up before the end of their 2025 live tour? — closes 2025-11-09 04:59 UTC
• In November, will Manifold think that H5 bird flu was transmitting human-to-human prior to February 12th? — closes 2025-11-09 05:59 UTC
• Will Friend have 10,000 DAU by Nov. 8 2025? — closes 2025-11-09 07:59 UTC
• Is Kilmar Abrego Garcia a member of MS-13? [resolves to poll] — closes 2025-11-09 11:00 UTC
• Will League of Legends team T1 (who won Worlds in 2024) win Worlds in 2025? — closes 2025-11-09 22:59 UTC
• In what year will Google or Meta release a commercial facial recognition search product? — closes 2025-11-10 04:59 UTC
• Will 9 or More Series go to 7 Games Across the NBA, NHL, and MLB Playoffs in 2025? — closes 2025-11-10 14:59 UTC
• Will Mosul Dam collapse before 2025-11-10? — closes 2025-11-10 23:59 UTC
• Which awards will Shohei Ohtani win in 2025? — closes 2025-11-11 13:29 UTC
• Will Bitcoin reach $111,111 USD before the end of 11/11/2025? — closes 2025-11-11 23:52 UTC
• How many seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey’s 2025 General Assembly election? — closes 2025-11-11 23:59 UTC
• Who will be elected in Virginia’s 2025 Attorney General election? — closes 2025-11-12 04:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin BTC reach $111,111 by 11/11/25? — closes 2025-11-12 04:59 UTC
• TIME 100 most influential people in AI 2025 — closes 2025-11-12 07:59 UTC
• Will the US debt surpass $38 trillion, according to USdebtclock.org by next Nov 11? — closes 2025-11-12 07:59 UTC
• Will Openphil continue to fund cause-agnostic EAGs via CEA in 2025? — closes 2025-11-12 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a reasoning model more powerful than o1-preview, and cheaper and >10x faster than o1-mini, by Nov 12 2025? — closes 2025-11-13 07:59 UTC
• When will Larian Studios announce Baldur's Gate 4? — closes 2025-11-13 22:59 UTC
• Which of these new allies will Trump insult on Twitter or Truth Social first? — closes 2025-11-14 07:59 UTC
• Will the Giants win the Pennant in 2025? — closes 2025-11-15 03:46 UTC
• Climate change: In which month will the 30-year global warming trend first reach 1.42°C? — closes 2025-11-15 22:59 UTC
• Will Eric Adams win a second term as mayor of New York City? — closes 2025-11-16 04:59 UTC
• Who will endorse Yudkowsky and Soares' book? — closes 2025-11-16 11:45 UTC
• Which country will Hamas end up in? — closes 2025-11-17 04:59 UTC
• Bitcoin at >500 Exahash per second on 2025-11-17? — closes 2025-11-17 23:59 UTC
• Shohei Ohtani next National League MVP? — closes 2025-11-17 23:59 UTC
• 10 x State of AI Report 2024 Predictions about 2025 — closes 2025-11-18 07:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election? — closes 2025-11-19 07:59 UTC
• Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 be related to the Palestine conflict? — closes 2025-11-20 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a perfect game pitched in Major League Baseball in 2025? — closes 2025-11-21 04:59 UTC
• Will Ye (Kanye West) come out as transgender or nonbinary by the end of Transgender Day of Remembrance? — closes 2025-11-21 05:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be capable of some form of online learning? — closes 2025-11-21 20:52 UTC
• Will the next CEO of Microsoft after Satya Nadella be an internal candidate? — closes 2025-11-21 21:59 UTC
• Which party will win Virginia's 2025 gubernatorial election? — closes 2025-11-21 23:59 UTC
• Will Bonney join the Strawhats? — closes 2025-11-22 07:59 UTC
• Who will be the MLB Rookie of the Year for the National League in 2025? — closes 2025-11-22 23:49 UTC
• Will high skill immigration to the USA become more restricted under President Trump? — closes 2025-11-22 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the American League Cy Young Award in the 2025 MLB season? — closes 2025-11-22 23:59 UTC
• Within 3 years, will I generate over $300,000 USD in income? — closes 2025-11-22 23:59 UTC
• Who will be Chile's next president? [Add your answers!] 🇨🇱 — closes 2025-11-23 02:59 UTC
• Who will be on the ballot for Chile’s 2025 presidential election? (Add your answer!) — closes 2025-11-23 02:59 UTC
• Who will win the National League Cy Young Award in the 2025 MLB season? — closes 2025-11-23 10:32 UTC
• Will “Wicked: For Good" have a critics’ score of over 90% on Rotten Tomatoes on November 22? — closes 2025-11-24 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the 2025 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player? — closes 2025-11-24 05:59 UTC
• Which of the songs from Wicked (the musical) will be in either part of the movie adaptation? — closes 2025-11-24 06:59 UTC
• Will any MLB major award-winning players from 2024 repeat as awardees in 2025? — closes 2025-11-25 05:59 UTC
• What was the main cause of the crash of a DHL Cargo near Vilnius on 25-Nov-2024 — closes 2025-11-25 22:59 UTC
• Was there a second shooter in Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963? — closes 2025-11-26 04:59 UTC
• Prediction of iPhone 17 price (in rupees) — closes 2025-11-26 18:29 UTC
• Will rw_search be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26? — closes 2025-11-26 23:59 UTC
• Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26? — closes 2025-11-26 23:59 UTC
• Will the winner of at least one of the MLB MVP awards in 2025 have been injured at some point during the regular season? — closes 2025-11-27 04:59 UTC
• Who will win the MLB MVP Award in the National League for the 2025 MLB season? — closes 2025-11-27 23:59 UTC
• Will keyitem.club have at least 100 registered users by end of Thanksgiving? — closes 2025-11-28 04:59 UTC
• Who will win the MLB MVP Award in the American League for the 2025 MLB season? — closes 2025-11-28 23:59 UTC
• Will Ritchie Torres be the next Mayor of New York City — closes 2025-11-29 04:59 UTC
• Will Mike Johnson be the Speaker of the House on November 28, 2025? — closes 2025-11-29 04:59 UTC
• Who will win the World Scrabble Championship in 2025? — closes 2025-11-29 07:59 UTC
• NASDAQ 100 price EOY — closes 2025-11-29 10:59 UTC
• Turkey holds early parliamentary elections before December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-11-29 23:59 UTC
• Early presidential elections held in Turkey before December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-11-29 23:59 UTC
• Early presidential elections called in Turkey before December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-11-29 23:59 UTC
• Will the National or American league hit more home runs in Major League Baseball in 2025? — closes 2025-11-30 04:59 UTC
• Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine? — closes 2025-11-30 04:59 UTC
• Will Conjecture Earn >$2M revenue? — closes 2025-11-30 12:00 UTC
• Will there be 500 or more Notifiable Data Breaches reported in Australia between 1 January and 30 June 2025? — closes 2025-11-30 12:59 UTC
• Chess: Will I hit 1500 rapid before 1300? — closes 2025-11-30 15:10 UTC
• What will the title of the Wikipedia page about the war between Israel and Hamas be at the end of November 2025? — closes 2025-11-30 15:59 UTC
• Will Kalafina appear in Puella Magi Madoka Magica: Walpurgisnacht Rising? — closes 2025-11-30 21:59 UTC
• Will the SEC sue or settle with Caitlyn Jenner? — closes 2025-11-30 22:59 UTC
• Discourse 2024: Benjamin Netanyahu remains as Israel’s prime minister? — closes 2025-11-30 22:59 UTC
• Who will be elected Mayor of Seattle in 2025? — closes 2025-11-30 22:59 UTC
• Will the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 be found in the Penang Latitude Hole? — closes 2025-11-30 22:59 UTC
• Who will be the next prime minister of Czech Republic — closes 2025-11-30 22:59 UTC
• Will the Republican Party gain seats in the 2025 New York City Council Election? — closes 2025-11-30 22:59 UTC
• Discourse 2024: Shrinking U.S. inflation (3% or less)? — closes 2025-11-30 22:59 UTC
• Will Manifold stop 🛑 censoring emojis from market titles by December 2025?❓ — closes 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Mount Snow open before December 1st? — closes 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a Scottish Parliament election by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC
• Will a hurricane hit New York / New Jersey this year? — closes 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC
• Will any of the first 5 named hurricanes of the Atlantic Hurricane Season make landfall? — closes 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC
• Will one of the top two candidates in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Election be an independent/third-party candidate? — closes 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the Copa Libertadores 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 02:59 UTC
• Which Brazilian team advances furthest in Copa Libertadores 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 02:59 UTC
• FDJ-Suez 2025 Predictions/Hot takes [LRCP Previews] — closes 2025-12-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 be related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict? — closes 2025-12-01 04:59 UTC
• How many pieces of personal mail (addressed to me with handwritten notes from people I know) will I receive during 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 04:59 UTC
• [Chainsaw Man] Who is Fakesaw man? — closes 2025-12-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump's first year of presidency be positive for AI safety? — closes 2025-12-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be elected Seattle City Attorney in 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 04:59 UTC
• 🦃What will happen in November 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2025-12-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Congress pass 2 or more bills in Nov 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Avalanche Energy achieve net energy production by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 05:00 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 New York City mayoral election? — closes 2025-12-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the 2025 UCI Road Cycling World Championships happen in Rwanda? — closes 2025-12-01 05:59 UTC
• Who will succeed Lester Holt as anchor of NBC Nightly News? — closes 2025-12-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the NHC use the term "Gulf of America" to refer to the Gulf of Mexco in any 2025 tropical cyclone advisories? — closes 2025-12-01 05:59 UTC
• How will Donald Trump's Georgia election interference trial end? — closes 2025-12-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Manifold think Trump's threat to democracy was overblown at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Bruce Harrell be re-elected as mayor of Seattle in 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 07:59 UTC
• Will DACA be struck down by the US judicial system? — closes 2025-12-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a category 5 hurricane form during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season? — closes 2025-12-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 WNBA Championship? — closes 2025-12-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Anjan Katta/Daylight Computing OR gwern *OR* Jacob Cole be at Hidden States 2025 conference? — closes 2025-12-01 07:59 UTC
• Do the Waymo Lidar Lasers harm human eyes significantly? — closes 2025-12-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Melbourne Airport Rail Link project be fully funded by the end of November 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 09:59 UTC
• [MEGAMARKET] What will be true of @jim's upcoming Rationalussy movie? — closes 2025-12-01 10:59 UTC
• Will the warhammer amazon show release by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-01 13:59 UTC
• Will there be an Advent of Code 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 15:59 UTC
• Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026? — closes 2025-12-01 17:00 UTC
• Will a player hit two Grand Slams in one Major League Baseball game in 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 21:55 UTC
• Who will win MTG Worlds 2025? — closes 2025-12-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Johnny Depp return to Pirates of the Caribbean 6? — closes 2025-12-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Kirti Joshi's reformulation of Mochizuki's Inter-universal Teichmüller Theory be succesful by December 2025 — closes 2025-12-01 22:59 UTC
• Who will be appointed Prime Minister of Norway after the 2025 parliamentary election? — closes 2025-12-01 22:59 UTC
• Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024? — closes 2025-12-01 22:59 UTC
• What U.S. ski resort will open first for the 25-26 season for alpine skiing? — closes 2025-12-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Kizaru help the Straw Hats during the Egghead Arc? — closes 2025-12-01 23:59 UTC
• In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform? — closes 2025-12-01 23:59 UTC
• How active will the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season be? — closes 2025-12-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Half Life 3 Release in November of 2025? — closes 2025-12-02 00:59 UTC
• Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2025? — closes 2025-12-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Magnus Carlsen be the world’s top-ranked chess player on November 30? — closes 2025-12-02 04:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 FIDE Women's World Chess Championship? — closes 2025-12-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Lewis Hamilton win his eighth world title in 2025, breaking Michael Schumacher’s record of seven titles? — closes 2025-12-02 04:59 UTC
• 🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? — closes 2025-12-02 04:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 perform better than o1 (not preview) at AIME 2024, Codeforces elo, GPQA, or the 2024 ioi? — closes 2025-12-02 04:59 UTC
• How many antisemitic incidents reported in Australia (2025)? — closes 2025-12-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Substack use LLMs to help you write posts??? — closes 2025-12-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Lionel Messi leave Inter Miami after the 2025 season to play for Newell's Old Boys? — closes 2025-12-02 04:59 UTC
• How much weight will I lose in 1 year on semaglutide? — closes 2025-12-02 05:59 UTC
• Jon Rahm will win 1 or more majors in 2025 — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Naomi Osaka wins at least one major in 2025. — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the upcoming Fable game get 80% or more on OpenCritic? — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Which POV character will die first in The Winds of Winter? — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Demis Hassabis still work at Google/Alphabet at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Novak Djokovic wins 2 or more majors in 2025. — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• P(Doom) - Dario Amodei — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Aryna Sabalenka wins at least one major in 2025. — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• P(Doom) - Emmett Shear — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Iga Swiatek wins at least one major in 2025. — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Coco Gauff wins at least one major in 2025. — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Carlos Alcaraz wins at least one major in 2025. — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Carlos Alcaraz wins at least two majors in 2025. — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump serve time in multiple ways? — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Daniil Medvedev wins at least one major in 2025. — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• NWSL 2025 champion — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Novak Djokovic wins at least one major in 2025. — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Will China have COVID lockdowns before 2026? — closes 2025-12-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Eliezer's tweet on Artists needing to switch jobs in 6 to 24 months hold up? — closes 2025-12-03 14:59 UTC
• By which date will Ed Sheeran's new album have come out? — closes 2025-12-04 05:59 UTC
• meme necromancy which dead memes will be relevant here. — closes 2025-12-04 05:59 UTC
• Will the IUCN rank atleast 80% of saltwater fish species by 2025? — closes 2025-12-04 07:29 UTC
• Ethereum remains above $500 until 2025-12-04? — closes 2025-12-04 23:59 UTC
• Will Yubico use a phone home feature post acquisition? — closes 2025-12-05 07:59 UTC
• Was Brian Thompson (CEO of UnitedHealthcare) murdered in an act of revenge? — closes 2025-12-06 04:59 UTC
• Which "Five Night at Freddy's 2" Script is Real? — closes 2025-12-06 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold support SELL orders with limits by market close? — closes 2025-12-06 07:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released before Dec 2025? — closes 2025-12-06 22:59 UTC
• Will someone win two cycling Grand Tours in 2025? — closes 2025-12-06 22:59 UTC
• Will all three of Trump's remaining criminal cases actually go to trial? — closes 2025-12-07 01:15 UTC
• 🏈 2025 NCAAF: Which team will win the Big 12 Conference Championship? — closes 2025-12-07 05:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 MLS Cup? — closes 2025-12-08 04:59 UTC
• Will Noam Chomsky outlive (in the sense of survive for some time) Dick Van Dyke? — closes 2025-12-08 04:59 UTC
• What will be true for the 2025 F1 season? — closes 2025-12-08 07:59 UTC
• Will Lewis Hamilton score more points than Charles Leclerc in the 2025 F1 season? — closes 2025-12-08 07:59 UTC
• Which F1 team will win more GPs in 2025? — closes 2025-12-08 18:35 UTC
• Who will be the F1 World Champion (WDC) in 2025? — closes 2025-12-08 23:59 UTC
• Will the December 2024 Israeli invasion of Syria involve a permanent land grab? — closes 2025-12-09 04:59 UTC
• Who will be elected King County Executive in 2025? — closes 2025-12-09 22:59 UTC
• @mister_shroom was a Luigi Mangione Twitter / X account — closes 2025-12-09 23:59 UTC
• When will my 13 year old finish his video game and get it uploaded to sell on Steam — closes 2025-12-10 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the 2025 Time Magazine Athlete of the Year? — closes 2025-12-10 04:59 UTC
• Formula 1: Will Liam Lawson score more points in 2025 than Sergio Perez scored in 2024 (152 points)? — closes 2025-12-10 05:59 UTC
• If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 2.5%)? — closes 2025-12-10 06:59 UTC
• Will Jetson deliver >500 units by 2025 — closes 2025-12-10 07:59 UTC
• Hot Chip & Lies — closes 2025-12-10 17:00 UTC
• Will the west propose strict immigration rules? And take strict action — closes 2025-12-10 18:29 UTC
• Will the academic level of the average French student rise by 2025? — closes 2025-12-10 22:59 UTC
• Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2025? 🏆⚽ — closes 2025-12-10 22:59 UTC
• When will the next UK General Election take place? — closes 2025-12-10 23:59 UTC
• Will Blue Prince be nominated for an award at the Game Awards 2025? — closes 2025-12-10 23:59 UTC
• Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 be nominated for an award at the Game Awards 2025? — closes 2025-12-10 23:59 UTC
• Will Max Verstappen win his fifth consecutive World Driver's Championship? — closes 2025-12-11 04:59 UTC
• How many grand slams will there be in Major League Baseball in 2025? — closes 2025-12-11 04:59 UTC
• Who will be TIME's 2025 Person of the Year? — closes 2025-12-11 07:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? — closes 2025-12-11 22:59 UTC
• Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025? — closes 2025-12-11 22:59 UTC
• Is Shanks top 1 — closes 2025-12-11 23:59 UTC
• Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the Game Awards 2025? — closes 2025-12-11 23:59 UTC
• Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win an award at the Game Awards 2025? — closes 2025-12-11 23:59 UTC
• Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 be nominated for Game of the Year at the Game Awards 2025? — closes 2025-12-11 23:59 UTC
• Which UFC matchups will take place in 2025? — closes 2025-12-13 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg use any Ancient Roman Quotes during the Fight Event? — closes 2025-12-13 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg Quote the movie "Gladiator" during the Fight Event? — closes 2025-12-13 04:59 UTC
• Dick Van Dyke turned 98 on 12/13/23. Will he live to see his 100th birthday? — closes 2025-12-14 04:59 UTC
• F1 2025 head-to-head — closes 2025-12-14 22:59 UTC
• In January 2026, what will be the housing price index reported by Dutch National Statistics (CBS)? — closes 2025-12-14 23:59 UTC
• Will Mount Southington open before December 15th? — closes 2025-12-14 23:59 UTC
• Will I be impressed by GPT-5? — closes 2025-12-15 02:59 UTC
• Will Dick van Dyke become a centenarian? — closes 2025-12-15 04:59 UTC
• Which other categories will the Game of the Year winner win at The Game Awards 2025? — closes 2025-12-15 13:29 UTC
• Which other categories will the Game of the Year winner be nominated for at The Game Awards 2025? — closes 2025-12-15 13:29 UTC
• Will pakistan go back in the FATF list ? — closes 2025-12-15 18:29 UTC
• Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora? — closes 2025-12-15 21:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX reach $450B valuation in the next year? — closes 2025-12-15 21:59 UTC
• Which Stranger Things characters will die in season 5 — closes 2025-12-15 23:59 UTC
• What kind of cancer does Charles III have? — closes 2025-12-16 04:59 UTC
• Will Hindu Gods be featured in Age of Mythology: Retold by EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-16 04:59 UTC
• Will alien biological material be found on Mars by 2025? — closes 2025-12-16 04:59 UTC
• What will be true about the 2025 Nobel Prize Laureates ? — closes 2025-12-16 04:59 UTC
• How much would you pay for infinite banana? — closes 2025-12-16 05:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI abandon discrete GPT releases in favor of continuous updates? — closes 2025-12-16 07:59 UTC
• Will the fifth Busy Beaver still be thought to be proven to be 47,176,870 at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-16 07:59 UTC
• Will at least 100,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-16 07:59 UTC
• Will Nikola Gruevski return to North Macedonia and hold a position in its government? — closes 2025-12-16 22:59 UTC
• Will aliens freely walk around in 2025 — closes 2025-12-17 05:59 UTC
• If I do NOT buy the Oakland house I'm currently looking at, will I regret it at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-17 07:59 UTC
• If I buy the Oakland house I'm currently looking at, will I regret it at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-17 07:59 UTC
• Will the 2025 TIME person of the year be related to AI in some way? — closes 2025-12-17 18:21 UTC
• Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-17 23:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 get the Monty Fall problem correct? — closes 2025-12-17 23:59 UTC
• Will Luigi Mangione attempt suicide at least once while in custody before his trial is over? — closes 2025-12-18 04:59 UTC
• Will Luigi Mangione live until he is sentenced? — closes 2025-12-18 04:59 UTC
• Luigi Mangione Pre-Trial Prop Bets (Add Answers) — closes 2025-12-18 05:59 UTC
• Jake Sully dies in Avatar: Fire and Ash? — closes 2025-12-18 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a fourth season of I Think You Should Leave? — closes 2025-12-19 05:59 UTC
• Which account will get to 1,000 followers first, my Elon-simping X account, or my Elon-hating bluesky account? — closes 2025-12-19 06:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Formula 1 Drivers Championship? — closes 2025-12-19 07:59 UTC
• United States Recession by End of Q3? — closes 2025-12-19 10:59 UTC
• Will the 2025 TIME person of the year have an IMDB page? — closes 2025-12-19 22:33 UTC
• Will the World Bank or IMF establish a dedicated climate disaster relief fund of at least $50 billion by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-19 22:59 UTC
• F1 - Who will be the 116th driver to win a Grand Prix? — closes 2025-12-19 23:59 UTC
• THE COOP — closes 2025-12-19 23:59 UTC
• Will language models, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-20 03:00 UTC
• Will MSTR's stock price move more than expected in 2025? — closes 2025-12-20 04:59 UTC
• How will Trump v. Selzer resolve? [Iowa Lawsuit over Selzer's Pre-Election Poll] — closes 2025-12-20 04:59 UTC
• Will NVDA's stock price move more than expected in 2025? — closes 2025-12-20 04:59 UTC
• Game Awards Game of the Year 2025 Developer is from — closes 2025-12-20 14:59 UTC
• Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-20 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Bihar Elections? — closes 2025-12-20 23:59 UTC
• Formula 1: Will Lewis Hamilton score more points in 2025 than Carlos Sainz scored in 2024 (290 points)? — closes 2025-12-20 23:59 UTC
• Formula 1 2025 Prop Bets Imola🇮🇹 Grand Prix [Add answers] — closes 2025-12-21 00:59 UTC
• What works will be discovered in the Herculaneum library? (Vesuvius Challenge) — closes 2025-12-21 04:59 UTC
• Will Avatar 3 release on Dec 19 2025 as planned? — closes 2025-12-21 04:59 UTC
• What will be the top 3 video game characters searched on Pornhub at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-21 04:59 UTC
• What will be true about 2025's Time Person of the Year? — closes 2025-12-21 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the most streamed artist on Spotify in 2025? — closes 2025-12-21 04:59 UTC
• Will 'Hentai' still be the #1 most popular worldwide search term on Pornhub for the year of 2025? — closes 2025-12-21 04:59 UTC
• How many seats will Milei's La Libertad Avanza coalition gain in Argentina's 2025 elections to the Chamber of Deputies? — closes 2025-12-21 05:59 UTC
• How many seats will Milei's La Libertad Avanza coalition gain in Argentina's 2025 national senate elections? — closes 2025-12-21 05:59 UTC
• Which specific week will the Nintendo Switch 2 be released? — closes 2025-12-21 05:59 UTC
• Will the missing Queensland Virus Samples end up being a problem for me personally? — closes 2025-12-21 06:59 UTC
• Will the 2025 US Budget cut Social Security and Medicare by at least 5% — closes 2025-12-21 06:59 UTC
• Which game will win Game of the Year at the Game Awards 2025? — closes 2025-12-21 13:29 UTC
• Can everyone still get free daily mana at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-21 21:59 UTC
• Will >90% of Elon re/tweets/replies on 19 December 2025 be about AI risk? — closes 2025-12-21 23:59 UTC
• Will TSLA reach $800 in 2025? — closes 2025-12-22 04:59 UTC
• What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-22 06:59 UTC
• Formula 1 - Who will win the Constructors' Championship in 2025? — closes 2025-12-22 07:59 UTC
• Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care by 2025? — closes 2025-12-22 07:59 UTC
• Will more than 50% of Anthropic employees with Macbooks have 32GB RAM or more on their computers by EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-22 07:59 UTC
• Will anyone propulsively land an orbital-class rocket booster within a decade of SpaceX? — closes 2025-12-23 04:59 UTC
• Which psychiatric medications will be effective on Celene? — closes 2025-12-23 07:59 UTC
• What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)? — closes 2025-12-23 21:59 UTC
• Will Faker play on a team other than T1? — closes 2025-12-23 23:59 UTC
• Will X Mail launch by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-24 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a Assassination attempt on Donald Trumps life before the the midterms — closes 2025-12-24 04:59 UTC
• Will an EscaPADE Spacecraft reach Mars? — closes 2025-12-24 07:59 UTC
• Did the Greek coastguard and authorities lie about the June 14th 2023 boat disaster? — closes 2025-12-24 11:00 UTC
• Will the Greek coastguard admit to having had a direct role in the June 14th 2023 capsizing of Adriana? — closes 2025-12-24 11:00 UTC
• Will Tumbles reach Platinum in the Melee ranked ladder before Christmas? 2025 — closes 2025-12-24 23:59 UTC
• Linux market share at or above 5% by 2026? — closes 2025-12-24 23:59 UTC
• Will Apple face regulatory action from the EU for failing to deploy Apple Intelligence? — closes 2025-12-25 04:59 UTC
• will eos luffy be top 1 in the verse — closes 2025-12-25 06:59 UTC
• Will Apple release a laptop with OLED display by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-25 08:00 UTC
• An AI model with 100 trillion parameters exists by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-25 08:00 UTC
• Will the world human population be <6 Billion on December 26, 2025? — closes 2025-12-25 18:29 UTC
• Will NVIDIA maintain a >=75% of the Data center market share for at least 8 quarters by the end of 2026? — closes 2025-12-25 18:29 UTC
• Will NVIDIA maintain a >=75% of the Data center market share for at least 4 quarters by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-25 18:29 UTC
• Will there be another "fake alien" incident before EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-25 22:59 UTC
• Which sport is better? — closes 2025-12-25 23:59 UTC
• Will the Apple Vision Pro 2 require the customer to pick it up from the Apple store / have an in-store fitting process? — closes 2025-12-25 23:59 UTC
• Will NASA confirm the discovery of alien before 2026? — closes 2025-12-26 04:58 UTC
• Which UFC fighters will both remain undefeated and stay on the UFC roster through 2025? — closes 2025-12-26 04:59 UTC
• Will the website for Walton Goggins Goggle Glasses (https://gogginsgoggles.com/) exist on December 25, 2025? — closes 2025-12-26 04:59 UTC
• By EOY 2025, will I notice a trend of people I follow on X sharing their betting positions more than they do now? — closes 2025-12-26 05:59 UTC
• Will @bananamelter and @quixoteknight still be dating by Christmas 2025? — closes 2025-12-26 05:59 UTC
• Will an AI win Advent of Code? (2025) — closes 2025-12-26 05:59 UTC
• Will Trump authorize privateers (i.e. issue letters of marque & reprisal) to go after drug cartels? — closes 2025-12-26 07:59 UTC
• Is Elon a Nazi sympathizer? — closes 2025-12-26 07:59 UTC
• Will Ruben Amorim be manager of Manchester United on Christmas Day 2025? — closes 2025-12-26 23:59 UTC
• When will quiver.trade release a first version of "decentralized hedge funds"? — closes 2025-12-27 02:59 UTC
• Will Avatar: Fire and Ash get a 7.5 or higher on IMDB? — closes 2025-12-27 07:59 UTC
• Will Avatar: Fire and Ash (AKA Avatar 3) get 75% or higher on Rotten Tomatoes? — closes 2025-12-27 07:59 UTC
• F1: How long will Liam Lawson last at Red Bull Racing? — closes 2025-12-27 22:59 UTC
• Next Canadian Prime Minister's first public statement on Trump's statehood proposal — closes 2025-12-28 00:00 UTC
• Will my DJ set at Jesscamp 4 contain any AI-generated music? — closes 2025-12-29 04:59 UTC
• Will Fortnite still be the most searched game term on pornhub in 2025? — closes 2025-12-29 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the next executive producer of Saturday Night Live on NBC, following Lorne Michaels? — closes 2025-12-29 05:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI refer to o3 as AGI? — closes 2025-12-29 05:59 UTC
• By 2026, will there be a publicly reported instance of a AI social media algorithm displaying power-seeking behaviors? — closes 2025-12-29 06:29 UTC
• What will be the maximum achievable flop utilization on the next generation of Nvidia server chips? — closes 2025-12-29 07:59 UTC
• Next year will I think that AI is better than me at math? — closes 2025-12-29 07:59 UTC
• Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025? — closes 2025-12-29 12:59 UTC
• Will Fox News complete a purchase of The Daily Wire by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 04:59 UTC
• When will I have earned >=$100 USD via prize points on Manifold? (see desc) — closes 2025-12-30 07:59 UTC
• Will the FTC attempt to block a TikTok acquisition, if one is attempted? — closes 2025-12-30 07:59 UTC
• Conditional on California SB 1047 law, will an AI cause $500 million in damage by end of 2026? — closes 2025-12-30 07:59 UTC
• AI solves Millenium Prize Problem in 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 13:29 UTC
• Will the construction of the 10,000-year Clock of Long Now be completed before Dec 31, 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 15:59 UTC
• Will a solar storm cause a >24-hour internet outage in any top 10 populous city by 2025 end? — closes 2025-12-30 18:40 UTC
• How low can @jim push the S&P 500? (2025) — closes 2025-12-30 19:00 UTC
• Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 19:00 UTC
• Will Ramzan Kadyrov remain the head of the Chechen Republic (Chechnya) by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 20:59 UTC
• Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025? (1000 mana subsidy) — closes 2025-12-30 21:39 UTC
• The Single Market will be a key political debate in the UK before 2026 — closes 2025-12-30 21:59 UTC
• Will the new pope reside in the Apostolic Palace ? — closes 2025-12-30 22:54 UTC
• What will be the largest NASDAQ company at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 22:59 UTC
• Trump will sign yet another executive order that mentions "Bitcoin" in 2025 — closes 2025-12-30 22:59 UTC
• Will @levifinkelstein become a platinum selling hip hop artist or win a grammy for his rap music? — closes 2025-12-30 22:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be able to replace the average web developer? — closes 2025-12-30 22:59 UTC
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez arrested and mugshot released during 2025 — closes 2025-12-30 23:00 UTC
• Will Vladimir Putin lose political power in Russia before 2026? — closes 2025-12-30 23:53 UTC
• Next pope regarded as conservative (YES) or liberal (NO)? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will there be two-tier sentencing guidelines in effect in the UK at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Major AI research organization announces autonomous AI researcher? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• チームみらいが2025年8月31日までに政党要件を満たす — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• 5 states ban Fluoride in water (2025) — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will America bomb Iran in 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will WW3 happen in the end of 2025 ? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Chiikawa official English translation before 2026? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Malaysia's tourism arrivals exceed 31 million in 2025 — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Blue Prince Nominated at The Game Awards 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Australia sign a minerals deal with the US — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will MicroStrategy's ($MSTR) stock price reach $5000 by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will OceanSky Cruises perform a commercial flight in 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025, which post on Twitter / X will have the most impressions of all time? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• What will push tariffs off the front pages? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Windsurf removes major non-OpenAI models by EOY? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• EU buys $350B of US energy for tariff relief this year? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• >100K protest in DC before 2026? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Which lab will publish the model leading OpenRouter monthly rankings EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will "yeet" be the final keyword for throwing exceptions in Rust? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Romania change government before EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Trump strips any organization's 501c3 status? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the U.S. before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• By December 31, 2025, will a major auction house (e.g., Christie’s, Sotheby’s, or Phillips) sell an AI-generated artwork — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Fed performs emergency rate cut in 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will China completely ban Windows OS before 2026? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025, will I know about megagame/wargame, which used prediction markets? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• "President Trump abolishes federal income tax this year?" — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Jena overtakes Tectone by December 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Open AI be sued by Studio Ghibli or block Ghibification in 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• USA's 2025 Economist Democracy Index score? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will i sell my pc this year if i set the price to x next sunday(May 18)? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Gorillaz Release New Album in 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• At least 3 African fintech startups will secure funding rounds of $50M+ before September 2025 — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will the world experience a recession in 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will the European Union fine Elon Musk's social network X in 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Nvidia shares to hit new high in 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Scholar Inbox gains 100k users before 2026? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Germany submits motion to exclude AfD from state funding in 2025 — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Alibaba $BABA delisted from NYSE in 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Google integrate Bitcoin Lightning payments in the Play Store by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-30 23:59 UTC
• Precision fermentation technology used in more than 50 new plant-based products by December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Jair Bolsonaro arrested before December 31, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• XRP's price at the end of 2025 is lower than its price at the end of 2024 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Number of major milk tea chains (50+ locations) operating in the Philippines by December 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• What will NVIDIA's GPU market share range be by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• National Average Gas Price in the US by EOY 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• The U.S. Department of Education still exists by December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Bashar and Asma al-Assad married through 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Will Apple release support for editing RCS messages before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• A self-contained humanoid robot beats a pro table tennis player before 2035 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Danny DeVito retires from acting or passes away before December 31st, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Most popular kids curtain design theme in Abu Dhabi stores — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Danantara acquires a non-Indonesian company valued at >$1B by end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Which 2025 Marvel movie has highest worldwide box office gross by December 31, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Criminal investigation into Indonesia's Core Tax System launched by December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Most successful approach in 2025 ARC Prize competition — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• AI Poetry Awards by December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Katy Perry to participate in another spaceflight before December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• QQQ Index falls below $350 at any point in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• EPA's chrysotile asbestos ban overturned by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Ross Ulbricht launches a legal cryptocurrency business in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Russia launches a military incursion into Moldova before January 1, 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• XRP price above $6.9 by December 31st, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Will DeepSeek remain available on US iOS App Store until January 1, 2026? (no ban or removal) — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Gwern reveals the true meaning of Evangelion by December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Peak Bitcoin price in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Russia-Ukraine war remains active on December 31st, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Will the US government claim that an alien spacecraft is heading towards Earth before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Tesla's name changed to 'Trump' by December 31st 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Release month of Deltarune Chapters 3 and 4 (Together) in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Greenland becomes a US state by December 31st 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Will an AI implement a full infinity-topos mathematical framework by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Quarter in which Garmin announces a Forerunner watch with Elevate V5 or newer sensor in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• What new language will Dreaming Spanish expand to first in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Russia rejoins G7/G8 before January 1st, 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• US sanctions on Syrian oil remain in place through end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Civil war breaks out in Israel by December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• The Winds of Winter is published in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• At least one member of the Top Gear/Grand Tour trio (Clarkson, Hammond, May) passes away in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Will Michelle and Barack Obama separate/ divorce in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Will the German standard VAT rate increase by December 31st 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Alberta will hold a referendum on independence by December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Next major Zelda game revealed before Nintendo Switch 2 release — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Will Manifold Markets introduce leveraged betting by Dec 31, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• President Donald Trump mentions Asmongold by nickname before the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• This app reinstates my banned account by June 30, 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• S&P 500 closes higher on December 31st 2025 than December 31st 2024 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• XRP reaches new all-time high (above $3.84) in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Teenage Engineering releases a new sampler in their EP series before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• EU defense stocks vs South Korea defense stocks: EUAD ETF outperforms KDEF ETF in total return by end of 2029 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• From which region will The Economist's "Country of the Year" for 2025 come? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Looking for Growth UK's National Priority Infrastructure Bill becomes law by December 31st 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Will more than 20% of marketing study replications be successful in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Federal government employment decreases by >500,000 before January 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Global vegan food market exceeds $40 billion by December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Which will be released first: Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4.0 Sonnet? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• Will Mike Lindell be appointed to any position by Trump's government by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• AI generates image of person with head in psychedelic pool by December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
• How many of the teams that pick in the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft will make the playoffs? — closes 2025-12-31 00:28 UTC
• Will Avronna raise funds by the end of the financial year? — closes 2025-12-31 00:59 UTC
• Who will win these IPL 2025 matches? YES for Team 1; NO for Team 2 — closes 2025-12-31 00:59 UTC
• What will happen at IMO 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 00:59 UTC
• GPT-5 score on SimpleBench? — closes 2025-12-31 00:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk publicly criticizes Donald Trump through its Twitter account before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 01:00 UTC
• Will total processed tokens by Open Router LLMs exceed 10 trillion in any single week by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 01:00 UTC
• Amazon displays tariff costs on product pages in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 01:00 UTC
• Does O3 use the same base model as O1? (Conditional on any OpenAI confirmation) — closes 2025-12-31 01:00 UTC
• Will Elon Musk challenge someone to a physical fight before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 01:00 UTC
• UK government publishes a national ID implementation plan by end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 01:00 UTC
• Sam Harris releases additional evidence of Elon Musk COVID bet before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 01:00 UTC
• Current NFL player arrested and charged with domestic violence before Dec 31st, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 01:00 UTC
• Linkin Park announces plans to remaster Chester Bennington hits with Emily Armstrong before the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 01:00 UTC
• Will DOGE cause a data breach during 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 01:41 UTC
• Not retaliating rewarded (Trump tariffs) — closes 2025-12-31 02:12 UTC
• Will SpaceX manage to deliver the Starship on time in 2025 according to its agreement with NASA? — closes 2025-12-31 02:59 UTC
• Will everyone “Return To Office” (RTO) in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:00 UTC
• When will food aid into Gaza resume? — closes 2025-12-31 04:02 UTC
• Which of the following Blue States will have at least 50,000 undocumented immigrants removed in FY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a romance between Wednesday and Enid in Wednesday season 2? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will there be at least 14 new musicals for the 2024-2025 Broadway season? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will AOC run for Senator by the end of 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will any of Ford / General Motors / Stellantis file for any chapter of bankruptcy prior to January 1, 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine be extended an official invitation to join NATO before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Youtube Premium subscription fee for US users increase before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Musk LLM Release before 2024? (Yes) → Elon Musk World's Richest Person 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Spotify increase its Premium Individual subscription fee before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will 8XR game engine site feature more than 150 games by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Stripe / Shopify merge by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Xi JingPing and Benjamin Netanyahu meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden and Narendra Modi meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden and Kim Jong-un meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Xi JingPing and Dalai Lama meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Xi JingPing and Kim Jong-un meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Vladimir Putin and Dalai Lama meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Kim Jong-un and Dalai Lama meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Xi JingPing and Volodymyr Zelensky meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Vladimir Putin and Xi JingPing meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump and Dalai Lama meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden and Xi JingPing meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump and Narendra Modi meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden and Dalai Lama meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump and Xi JingPing meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person in year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 04:59 UTC
• Luigi Mangione Federal Pre-trial proceedings Prop Bets (Add Answers) — closes 2025-12-31 05:59 UTC
• Where in the multiverse is "no accident must ever help the detective"? — closes 2025-12-31 05:59 UTC
• Will seed oils be banned in the US by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 05:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump be President of the United States on December 30th, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 05:59 UTC
• How many stars will Manifold reach on Github in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 05:59 UTC
• Luigi Mangione NY Pre-trial proceedings Prop Bets (Add Answers) — closes 2025-12-31 05:59 UTC
• Will I have a baby by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 05:59 UTC
• Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 05:59 UTC
• Will artificial general intelligence be achieved they the end of 2025 ? — closes 2025-12-31 05:59 UTC
• Top 10 coins— Jan 1, 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 05:59 UTC
• Is GPT-5 a mixture of experts? — closes 2025-12-31 05:59 UTC
• Will the '24 CA "Advanced Clean Trucks" requirements be successfully implemented? — closes 2025-12-31 06:01 UTC
• Do scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• GPT-5 trained with >=24k GPUs? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• Will the Elon Musk tweet "X will become the most valuable brand on Earth. Make my words." hold up before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released incrementally as GPT4.x for different checkpoints from the training run? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• Will a podcast with an AI system get >= 10 million listens/views by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• AI commentary for an entire golf game by 2025 end? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• By 2026, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• Will the next major LLM by OpenAI use a new tokenizer? — closes 2025-12-31 06:29 UTC
• Will the USA army be back to Afghan in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 06:50 UTC
• Will development of a universal flu vaccine have made significant progress by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 07:00 UTC
• Will Europa Universalis 5 have overall mixed reviews in Steam a month after release? — closes 2025-12-31 07:56 UTC
• Will the software engineer's salaries/ per capita GDP ratio be lower in 2026 than in 2022, per Levels.fyi? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• When with ClaudePlaysPokemon beat Pokemon Red/Blue? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (42069 Mana prize for the lottery winner) — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• What games will be nominated in any category at the Game Awards in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Is fashion 8% of global carbon emissions? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 20% in any quarter of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will Nvidia close over $40 post-split ($400 pre-split) at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• GPT-5 releases when? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a UAW union at a Tesla plant with at least 100 members in it by EOY 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will software engineer's real salaries be lower in 2026 than they were in 2022, per Levels.fyi? (Inflation adjusted!) — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in any quarter of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in any quarter of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• What countries will attempt to interfere with the US election? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will PredictIt still be operating markets through 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• What games will win in any category at the Game Awards in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Which of GiveWell's top charity areas will be demoted first? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• Will TikTok be banned in the US at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 07:59 UTC
• When will Corn have a girlfriend again? — closes 2025-12-31 08:00 UTC
• Will I have a threesome in the next 24...? — closes 2025-12-31 08:46 UTC
• Who will win the next UFC welterweight (170lb) championship fight? — closes 2025-12-31 09:02 UTC
• Will the best LLM in 2025 have <500 billion parameters? — closes 2025-12-31 09:30 UTC
• Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters? — closes 2025-12-31 09:30 UTC
• Will the best LLM in 2025 have <1 trillion parameters? — closes 2025-12-31 09:30 UTC
• Will the best LLM in 2026 have <1 trillion parameters? — closes 2025-12-31 09:30 UTC
• Will Zack Polanski become leader of the Green party — closes 2025-12-31 09:33 UTC
• Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 10:00 UTC
• Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 10:00 UTC
• What country will the new Pope visit second? — closes 2025-12-31 10:16 UTC
• Will GPT-5 have fewer parameters than GPT-4? (1500M subsidy) — closes 2025-12-31 10:29 UTC
• Has Kim Jong Un made a strategic decision to go to war? — closes 2025-12-31 10:34 UTC
• S&P price EOY — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will a company started by me have a valuation of at least one billion USD by the year 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• How many of my New Year's resolutions will I achieve? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will Manifold have iOS widgets in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will I Be Convinced Some People Feel Wi-Fi from 5+ Meters Away? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 recover by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will TSLA drop below $100 a share in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will TSLA drop below $200 a share in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will a company started by @jim have a valuation of at least one billion USD by the year 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-helium-3 fusion before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will Shinsung Delta Tech lose its LK-99 related gains before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• N.C. Young's 💎 Crystallised 💎 New Year's Resolutions — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will Noam Chomsky get a black bar on hnews when he passes away — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Which non-house Manifold bot will have the highest yearly profit at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will the US join BRICS by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will Nathan Cofnas lose his Leverhulme fellowship at the University of Cambridge? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• When will the first Agency podcast be aired? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• [Doctor Who] If we find out, who took the Toymaker's gold tooth? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will a company started by me have a valuation of at least ten million USD by the year 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• will DeepSeek become a closed AI lab by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• OpenAI to become a for-profit by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will there be a TSLA stock split in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Who will be Prime Minister of New Zealand at EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will o4 be announced in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• What words will be in the subtitle of "Avengers 5"? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Which of Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft will have the largest market cap at 2025 EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• In the next good study I find on which male hairstyle is most attractive, what will the result be? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will humans say the largest prime number before we find the next one? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Economic impact of AI advances - through what industry will AI have the biggest economic impact in 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Mistral IPO by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be announced on @jim's birthday? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Meta to release world's most advanced AI? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• How many Tweets will Sam Altman make before announcing the next GPT? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Who will be playable in Mario Kart 9 at launch? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will Martin Shkreli have a child by end 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• N.C. Young's 🤷🏻‍♂️ Relatively Dumb 🤷🏻‍♂️ New Year's Resolutions — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will China have the best open LLM at EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• 10+ DOGE lawsuits dismissed — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Who will direct “Avengers: Secret Wars”? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will Wayne Brown 🟤 be voted in for a second term as Mayor of Auckland (immediately following his current term)? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Stargate Project to add a new major technology partner by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• OpenAI to release model weights by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• How many standard deviations is @ice's IQ from the norm? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will gold reach 20k by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• When will Notch's new game Levers and Chests be available to play (or purchase) at lac.net? — closes 2025-12-31 10:59 UTC
• Will Matt Smith be the next James Bond? — closes 2025-12-31 11:00 UTC
• Spain's Power Outage Cause Bingo — closes 2025-12-31 11:00 UTC
• Will a new Super Smash Bros. game be released before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 11:00 UTC
• Will any country implement a universal basic income by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 11:00 UTC
• Will GameCube games be playable on the Nintendo Switch before their next major console? — closes 2025-12-31 11:00 UTC
• What will the next Age of Empires III civilisation(s) be? — closes 2025-12-31 11:00 UTC
• What will be the percentage of inactive W20-S23 YCombinator startups at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 11:00 UTC
• Will anyone contest one of my resolution decisions in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 11:00 UTC
• Virginia Giuffre death ruled not a suicide/inconclusive — closes 2025-12-31 11:21 UTC
• Will the Marines betray/defect the World Government? — closes 2025-12-31 11:25 UTC
• Will Ethereum hard fork Fusaka include EOF? — closes 2025-12-31 11:44 UTC
• What will net migration to the UK be in 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 11:57 UTC
• Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates? (2026) — closes 2025-12-31 12:00 UTC
• 🎧 Next generation AirPods Max - what will be true? — closes 2025-12-31 12:10 UTC
• When will prediction markets be featured on the 80,000 Hours podcast? — closes 2025-12-31 12:30 UTC
• Will Polymarket or Kalshi offer ‘index contracts’ (contracts with continuous payoffs) in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer) — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will China invade Taiwan by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Serie be alive at the end of the Foundation Festival arc? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Rocket Lab successfully reuse an Electron Booster by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Deutsche Bank AG be bailed out by the German government before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Rivian (RIVN) worth $100B or more before end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Fox settle their case against Smartmatic ? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Trump calls Elon "Head of DOGE" again — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will there be a LessOnline 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Who will be the UFC Featherweight Champion at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will the US give military support to Russia in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Russia's frozen state assets be seized before 2026 ? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk challenges Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, OR Jensen Huang to a fight before end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will there be more than 10 companies with market cap of > $1T by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Trump successfully appeal the hush money case? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Australia vote to become a Republic by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Which AFL player will win the 2025 Brownlow Medal? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Was Hamas using the Al-Ansar mosque as a terrorist compound? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Josh Frydenberg be reelected to parliament before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will LessWrong the website have shutdown by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• US vaccinates chickens in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 Appear on any Major Podcast in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine default on any of it's national government debt in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Manifold introduce a downvote for markets? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Peter Wildeford’s plan for human freedom and prosperity post AGI: more like a detailed plan or a set of frameworks? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will independent Alex Dyson defeat Liberal Dan Tehan in the seat of Wannon Victoria in the upcoming federal election. — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• What will be the outcome of United States v Apple? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will China's navy still be the largest in the world in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Which club will win the 2025 AFL Women's Premiership? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will 'Semi-Dirac Fermions in a Topological Metal' be independently replicated in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• USA Foreign Military Sales in 2025 (Billion USD) — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Übel figure out a way to cut through her ropes? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Rust be the most loved language in the 2025 stack overflow developer survey? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Which AFL player will win the 2025 Coleman Medal? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI increase the cost of its ChatGPT o1 Pro Subscription Plan this year? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Boeing and Airbus divest their space divisions in 2025? (Prediction from a $150M VC firm) — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Novak Djokovic to play ___ tournament in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will the U.S capture the Gaza Strip by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• How many Starship launches will occur in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will the EU sign a rare earths deal with Ukraine ? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk release a phone before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• In 2025, the Prime Minister of Australia will be from which part(ies)? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will Gilmour Space's Eris rocket reach space on the first attempt? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Which club will win the AFL minor premiership in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will the first Starship catch attempt target a launch from Pad A, booster catch on tower A, and ship catch on tower B? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Which club will win the AFL wooden spoon in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will DOGE inspect Fort Knox to verify the presence of the 4,580 tons of US gold by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• Will any of the countries that currently don't allow dual citizenship legalise dual citizenship by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 12:59 UTC
• What will be the next country to send a manned flight to the moon — closes 2025-12-31 13:15 UTC
• Fooming Shoggoths' next album release date? — closes 2025-12-31 13:22 UTC
• Who will be the first Jet Lag athlete to win seven series? — closes 2025-12-31 13:28 UTC
• Will a DeSci (decentralized science) project be valued at $100 million or more anytime before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will the Elon Musk-led group successfully gain control of OpenAI by EOY 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will Cardano ADA be a top 3 cryptocurrency at any point before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will an AI doctor replace the role of a human doctor in a first world country before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will Trump be required to wear an ankle monitor & do it? [Before 2025] — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will a Protoss player win a premier tournament on patch 5.0.14 in Starcraft 2? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will saying “I’m gagged” or similar become mainstream slang for being excited by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active users? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will someone have a court approved legal abortion in Texas before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will the toothbrush mustache (as most commonly associated with Adolf Hitler) regain popularity by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will there be any Russian attacks or troop deployments in Alaska before eoy2025? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will any doctor go to prison for performing an abortion in Texas before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 13:29 UTC
• Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 13:59 UTC
• Will the Australian Nationals merge with Australian Liberal party on a federal level, before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 13:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI fold in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 13:59 UTC
• Will a fully AI generated osu! beatmap make it to the ranked section by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 13:59 UTC
• Will Jagmeet Singh run for provincial office? — closes 2025-12-31 14:16 UTC
• Will the Trump administration attempt to remove Harvard's tax exempt status by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:18 UTC
• what is my name (do not bet on this. its for testing purposes — closes 2025-12-31 14:22 UTC
• Explain: How does Raycast's clipboard perform text search? — closes 2025-12-31 14:51 UTC
• Will Intel's stock price be ≥ $20 USD at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will I Play 60 or More Games on Steam in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Which Club Will Paul Pogba *Play* for Next? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• What will TSLABull (@MolbyDick) do before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will I believe that Klotho gene therapy in adults is a nontrivial cognitive enhancer (order of >5 IQ pts) EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will Xi Jinping visit the US in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• If Elon and Zuck have an actual dick measuring contest, will Elon have the longer penis? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will Robin Vos remain in office through 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will RTAP materials similar to lk99 be reported by 2025 ? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Which continents will Tetra visit in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will Hong Kong-appointed liquidator of Evergrande be recognized by a mainland Chinese court before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will Yamato Join the strawhat officially by the end of the series? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will either DLL break their WAN Show Streak before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will Waymo serve any part of Berkeley at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will CZ be the CEO of a company again before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will every single gorosei turn out to be stronger than Kaido? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will it be possible for me to travel from San Francisco to Lighthaven in a Waymo in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Which cities in the UK will Tetra visit in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• First Famous person to Die in 2025?(Add answers! WorldWide ) — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will Trump's approval rating fall below 40% in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will Senator Chuck Grassley (92) live to see 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 14:59 UTC
• Will Apple announce a foldable tablet by Dec 31, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:00 UTC
• Will Substack publications have at least 5 million paid subscribers by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:00 UTC
• Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:00 UTC
• What new countries will Google support with the pixel 10 launch? — closes 2025-12-31 15:14 UTC
• Will the Venus Life Finder enter Venus's atmosphere before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Lex Friedman post an interview with Julian Assange by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will this platform shut down by end 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will the UK deploy a carrier battle group to the Pacific in 2024 or 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will a commercial non-stop flight between Sydney and New York exist before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which season of Jet Lag: The Game will see the return of Tag? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will there be a cure for Prion diseases by 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Riot Games release their MMORPG fully or in open beta before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800) — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which places will be within the zone of Tag 4 of Jet Lag: The Game? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which NFL division will have the worst combined regular season record in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Twitter/X be unblocked in China before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Has PLA General He Weidong (何卫东) been arrested? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will a Royal Navy ship transit the Taiwan Strait in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will SBF be dead before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will wekaio IPO in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Taiwan/ROC lose a 'diplomatic ally' in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will a commercial non-stop flight between London and Sydney exist before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will either the AFC West or the NFC North will have the best combined record in the 2025 regular NFL season? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will any tier-1 city in China have a region which bypasses the great firewall by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Lunar Gateway be cancelled before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Taiwan open a Representative Office in Estonia by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will David Cameron re-enter the House of Commons as an MP before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Shamina Begum regain her British citizenship by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Kamala Harris meet Vladimir Putin in person before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• If marijuana is legalized in the US before 2025, how many people will try marijuana at least once in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will a British fighter jet land on a Japanese aircraft carrier in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will India launch a human into Earth orbit before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will the President of Taiwan(ROC) visit the US in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will France deploy a carrier battle group to the Pacific in 2024 or 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• 📈 Considering the current $BTC (Bitcoin) cycle, what is your prediction for its new all-time high price? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Is the Unidentified Car-sized Object over Alaska of Chinese origin? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Elon Musk arrested when landing in EU? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which NFL division will have the best combined regular season record in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will we discover a chess player with ELO > 1500 cheating in an over-the-board chess tournament using anal devices by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2024 and/or 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which blockchain will the BRICS FIRST use to issue their new gold standard currency? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Manifold support distribution markets beyond numerical ranges by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Joint Market: Elon Musk defends the CCP in a tweet in 2024 & Twitter/X is unblocked in China before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Is the Unidentified Car-sized Object over Alaska of Russian origin? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which NATO countries will officially send soldiers to fight in Ukraine before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will SLS be cancelled before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Putin flee to the PRC before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• What will be true about iPhone 17 air/ slim? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Who is the "man marked by flames"? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which countries will Xi Jinping visit in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• If marijuana is not legalized in the US before 2025, how many people will try marijuana at least once in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will US attack Ukraine in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Is the Unidentified Car-sized Object over Alaska of North Korean origin? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which simple games will get their own seasons of Jet Lag before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Saudi Arabia join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Kizaru join the Strawhats as the next member? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Gilmour Space reach orbit before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will YouTube channel How Ridiculous break the world record for highest basketball shot by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• What would be your forecast for the trading price of the Shanghai Composite Stock Market Index on the last day of 2023? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Putin flee Russia before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will a Japanese fighter jet land on a British aircraft carrier in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Jimmy Lai be released from prison before end of 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which Scottish Spaceport will see the first successful orbital launch? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• 📈 Will Solana ($SOL) flip Ethereum ($ETH) market cap by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will there be a South Korea season of Jet Lag before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 outperform the ASX 200 over the course of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which company will the US Air Force award the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter contract to? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which countries will the UK Prime Minister visit in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine reach a peace treaty with Russia before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Putin flee to the PRC before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• ChatGPT allows advertisers to influence results or place ads before Jan 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk tweet that Covid-19 *wasn't* created in a laboratory in China before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX successfully catch a Starship in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Australia release significant AI-related legislation/regulation by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Italy deploy a carrier battle group to the Pacific in 2024 or 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Boeing announce a new 797 airliner before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will the US Deficit be higher at the end of 2025 than at the end of 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Which country will be next to recognise Croatia? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025 will manifold.love be more popular than Hinge? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will a typhoon make landfall in Taiwan in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• 📈 Considering the current $ETH (Ethereum) cycle, what is your prediction for its new all-time high price? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025, will US troops have withdrawn from the Baltic states? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Steve Huffman be fired (or resign) as CEO of Reddit within 12 months of a Reddit IPO? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh resign or be removed from the Communist Party of Vietnam Politburo before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Notable bottlenecks to AI adoption by end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• How many members of Taiwan's (R.O.C.) Legislative Yuan will be recalled in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Trump accept El Salvador’s offer to house U.S. criminals? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Who will win BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Warren Buffett either retire from Berkshire Hathaway or pass away before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will an AI be able to play 3-person Monopoly Deal or an equivalent card game at a superhuman level by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Putin flee Russia in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine use British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack the Kerch Bridge? — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• France to officially recognise Palestine as a state before the end of 2025? 🇫🇷🇵🇸 — closes 2025-12-31 15:59 UTC
• 10-year US treasuries yield >10% any time before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 16:01 UTC
• LNG import/export terminal destroyed for any reason before 2026. — closes 2025-12-31 16:01 UTC
• Rep. Matt Gaetz assaulted on floor of Congress before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 16:01 UTC
• US Inflation over 5% 2023-2025 — closes 2025-12-31 16:01 UTC
• Will there be 5 or more confirmed violent tornadoes (EF4 or EF5) occur in the USA during 2025? (Currently 3+) — closes 2025-12-31 16:01 UTC
• Elon Musk convicted of a felony before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 16:01 UTC
• Harvard University’s freshman class size increases by at least 25% before 2026. — closes 2025-12-31 16:01 UTC
• Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 16:01 UTC
• Will the mean score for The Foundation Model Transparency Index be 50% or more by the end of 2025? (current: 37%) — closes 2025-12-31 16:32 UTC
• Will there be a new largest known prime number by the end of 2025? (Last one - Oct 21 2024) — closes 2025-12-31 16:44 UTC
• Will Hezbollah attack Cyprus before EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Will Harvey Weinstein be free from prison before the end of 2025? [500m subsidy] — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Who will be the third ULTRAKILL prime boss? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Will Nicky Case become a genetically engineered catgirl in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• After reading Determined by Robert Sapolsky, will I be <50% convinced of the existence of free will? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Lionel Messi to join Manchester City before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Who will be a guest athlete on Jet Lag before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• RIKVIP — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Will Nicky Case's net worth be over M$10000 by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Bahlil Lahadalia receives his doctorate from UI by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Will capital gains taxes on cryptocurrencies issued by U.S. companies be eliminated before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• If there is a second Peace Summit, will the Russia-Ukraine War end within 3 months afterward? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Will Spotify create a record label and release AI-generated songs by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Will any part of a Jet Lag season take place in Taiwan before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Would Google sell Chrome before end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Will I regret getting a hair transplant? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Will a judge throw out X vs. GARM? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 knowledge cutoff is in 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Will Ethereum complete the Fusaka hard fork before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Another school shooter with a meme manifesto in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 16:59 UTC
• When will the “Wicked For Good” trailer come out — closes 2025-12-31 17:03 UTC
• Iranian fuel & gunpowder factory explosions caused by foreign actors? — closes 2025-12-31 17:07 UTC
• Czech republic parliamentary elections winner. — closes 2025-12-31 17:09 UTC
• Will the German Jugger Rules explicitly regulate simultaneous hitting and pinning before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 17:23 UTC
• Will Apple sell 420420 units of Vision Pro in 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 17:31 UTC
• Who will win the Ballon dar this season?🤔🌍 — closes 2025-12-31 17:55 UTC
• What is worse than committing a financial crime? — closes 2025-12-31 18:00 UTC
• Will the Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg fight happen in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:05 UTC
• What day of the week will be the next >=5% change in the S&P 500? (After April 9 2025) — closes 2025-12-31 18:06 UTC
• Will India become 3rd largest economy by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 18:14 UTC
• What will happen successfully during Starship flight 9? — closes 2025-12-31 18:17 UTC
• Indian warplanes downed by Pakistan during Operation Sindoor? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will the Noida airport be operationalised before the Navi Mumbai airport? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2025 end? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Which states in the USA will legalize the recreational use of Marijuana (Cannabis) (Weed) before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will there be more Interpreters and Translators jobs in the U.S. in 2025 than in 2021? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Bitcoin Prediction: Which price Bitcoin will reach in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will OpenAI offer a free tier for chatGPT through the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will I get Gold in IOAA 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will an AI Generated YouTube Short have more than 500 million views before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will "On the fly modification and generation of in game environment during play using an AI system" be possible in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Google release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• 2025: Most common way to write documents in Latex is to give a natural language description to a tool based on LLMs? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2025 end? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Are Mixture of Expert (MoE) transformer models generally more human interpretable than dense transformers? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• National AI hotline (by 2025 end) — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Mr. Donald Trump join Manifold Markets before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Manifold be acquired by a Fortune 500 company before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will OpenAI release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will OpenAI offer a free tier for chatGPT through the end of 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Google kill Tensorflow by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• An NBA game features AI commentary by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will javier milei successfully get impeached before 2025 ends — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• By 2025 end, a model exhibits action recognition (video) equivalent to human level accuracy on Something Something V2? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will OpenAI announce a multi-modal AI capable of any input-output modality combination by end of 2025? ($1000M subsidy) — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Apple release a MacBook with LLM integration built in, by 2025 end? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will the song "X Gon' Give it to Ya" be played during the broadcast on X of Zuck vs Musk fight? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will OpenAI form a partnership with the following studios/companies for using models for AI generated videos? (By 2026) — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Bitcoin hit 200K before the release of Windows 12 in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Sundar Pichai remain Alphabet CEO by 2025 end? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will GPT-5 have an estimated IQ higher than 101? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Berkshire Hathaway stock rise on the news of Warren Buffet’s death (go up on the next /current trading day) — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will US Dollar crash dramatically before end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will any wild-type poliovirus (WPV1) cases be reported in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will trust in Zelensky fall below 50% in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Which of these Microsoft Surface will launch in 2025 or less — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will we finally get the full lore of Joyboy in Elbaph? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will there be a "Netflix House" opened in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Which of the following products will Microsoft Discontinue in 2025 [ADD RESPONSE] — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will AI lead to a meaningful drop in revenues of major Indian IT/BPO companies before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Chris Turner get a Netflix special before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Which of these features YouTube will add [ADD RESPONSE] [YOU CAN ADD ANSWER] — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Google Drive uses AI for storing files securely before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Microsoft OneNote be discontinued in end of 2025 or less? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Tesla reach $500 in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Guess a random number from 1 to 100 — closes 2025-12-31 18:29 UTC
• Will Iran be Bankrupt by 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 18:39 UTC
• Should searchbars use hotkey: `CTRL + K` or `/`? — closes 2025-12-31 18:53 UTC
• Which will come first, a female POTUS (Yes) or GTA 6 (No)? — closes 2025-12-31 18:59 UTC
• Will Sundar Pichai be convicted by the end of 2025 due to Google allowing ads which violate federal law? — closes 2025-12-31 18:59 UTC
• Will Register NSFAS Application? — closes 2025-12-31 18:59 UTC
• Will Congress pass new legislation related to the security of former presidents and presidential candidates by 2025 end? — closes 2025-12-31 18:59 UTC
• 📆What will happen in 2025? [Add Responses] — closes 2025-12-31 18:59 UTC
• Will the president of South Korea 🇰🇷 Yoon Suk Yeol be convicted of insurrection? — closes 2025-12-31 18:59 UTC
• Will the FED cut rates more than once in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 18:59 UTC
• 👨🏻‍💼 During Which Official 2025 FOMC Meetings Will They Cut/Lower Rates? — closes 2025-12-31 19:00 UTC
• Will Sam Bankman-Fried's Mother be arrested or serve time related to FTX by end 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 19:00 UTC
• Will Sam Bankman-Fried's Father be arrested or serve time related to FTX by end 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 19:00 UTC
• Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? — closes 2025-12-31 19:02 UTC
• Stranger Things Season 5 receives a Rotten Tomatoes score of 90% or higher within one month of release — closes 2025-12-31 19:11 UTC
• Will a major media outlet publish an exposé on Oprah Winfrey's business practices and public image by December 31, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 19:20 UTC
• Will research confirm the existence of a new state of matter by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 19:22 UTC
• If nuclear weapons are utilized in the India Pakistan conflict, which country will pull the trigger first. — closes 2025-12-31 19:43 UTC
• Will George Floyd reincarnate as a vulture by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 19:55 UTC
• Who will be India’s next Test Captain? — closes 2025-12-31 19:56 UTC
• If Israel “eradicates” Hamas, will they allow > 600k Palestnians back into north of Wadi Gaza before end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• By the start of 2026, will the Clay Mathematics Institute award its monetary prize for the solution of another Millennium Prize Problem? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI’s claims that DeepSeek is a distillation of their models become the consensus view? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• By the start of 2026, will I still think that transformers are the main architecture for tasks related to natural language processing? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• By the start of 2026, will at least 100 people have been permanently cured of HIV? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• Will 7-Eleven (Seven & i Holdings) be acquired before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• Will USAID get shut down this year? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• Will manifold allow to bet on two or more markets at once before end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• Was Scottish separatism significantly funded by the EU? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• Will X get banned in Canada this year? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• Will WEI (Web engine integrity) be shipped in a stable Google Chrome release by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• By the start of 2026, will a country named Russia be a member of the UN? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• Will the democracy score for the United States significantly decrease by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine legalise cannabis for medical use by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• By the start of 2026, will the number of planets in the Solar System, as per the International Astronomical Union, be exactly 8? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• Will UniCredit successfully acquire a majority stake in Commerzbank by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• By the start of 2026, will at least 1000 people have been permanently cured of HIV? — closes 2025-12-31 19:59 UTC
• Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 20:00 UTC
• Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 20:00 UTC
• Which company will have the largest market cap as of 12/31/30? — closes 2025-12-31 20:00 UTC
• Will Russia pay at least $1bn in reparations to Ukraine by Jan 1, 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 20:00 UTC
• Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 20:00 UTC
• Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 20:00 UTC
• Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 20:00 UTC
• Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 20:00 UTC
• Will handheld or desktop monitors become obsolete by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:01 UTC
• Who will takeover as permanent host of The Daily Show? (Free response) — closes 2025-12-31 20:01 UTC
• Next pope leads more or less Catholics than current pope? — closes 2025-12-31 20:03 UTC
• Which company has best Text-to-Image AI model end of 2025? (Artificial Analysis Leaderboard) — closes 2025-12-31 20:09 UTC
• Will I be indicted for tax fraud this year? — closes 2025-12-31 20:09 UTC
• Will Pxie win her court case against Destiny? — closes 2025-12-31 20:12 UTC
• Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book be a NYT bestseller in 2025? under various conditions — closes 2025-12-31 20:15 UTC
• Will Peter Njeim's Canada PM market get resolved by a mod? — closes 2025-12-31 20:27 UTC
• Will Chinese hypersonic jet have a crewed test flight by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Did people connected with Trump campaign spend $10m+ to influence election markets? [based on reporting by end of 2025] — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• This market will resolve YES if I'm still active on Manifold by the end of 2025, and NO otherwise. I will bet only YES. — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Which months in 2025 will become “hottest (corresponding month) on record”, globally? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will "X" change back to Twitter by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) be in operation until December 31st 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Which months in 2025 will become “hottest (corresponding month) on record” in the US? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will a Saudi Pro League Team play in the UEFA Champions League by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will there be a nuclear explosion in USA in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will the ongoing Russian mobilization formally end by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• How unusable will my Lenovo laptop be by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Where X (old Twitter) will get banned by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will I run a sub-45 min 10k by the end of this year? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will I manage to achieve a sub-45 min 10k before @diadematus? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will Kurzgesagt's new Space Birds game be free to play? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• How much did DeepSeek V3 cost to create? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin fall below $60k at any point in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will we see Imu’s face/design reveal in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Which stuff would be featured in Kurzgesagt's new game, Star Birds? (On release) — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Ross Ulbricht joins a cryptocurrency business in an advisory role in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 20:59 UTC
• Will there be a military conflict between China and the United States by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:00 UTC
• Will @Mira and @Catnee go on a date by 2026-01-01 (given no doom until then)? — closes 2025-12-31 21:00 UTC
• Will $TSLA close above $600 per share by December 31 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:00 UTC
• Is Donald Trump already suffering the effects of dementia? — closes 2025-12-31 21:00 UTC
• Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:00 UTC
• Will Mike Waltz be confirmed as Ambassador to the United Nations? — closes 2025-12-31 21:14 UTC
• Will the 45th Overwatch character be a female melee based DPS or Tank? — closes 2025-12-31 21:23 UTC
• Will I befriend the neighborhood crows? — closes 2025-12-31 21:58 UTC
• Will Costcos in US further devalue their hot dog and soda combo before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine militarily destroy or disable ALL Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI announce a model with a name containing the string "GPT-4b" in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Remigijus Žemaitaitis get impeached by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will president Trump fire Jerome Powell before EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Iittala return to their previous red "i" logo before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will the world be hotter on average by one degree in 2 years? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will I Achieve 20,000 USD/month by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will there be Spotify app for Apple Vision pro by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will My Chemical Romance release a new album by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will my blog succeed in its inelegant New Year's resolution for 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will the SDG 2.1 "zero hunger" be achieved by the end of 2035? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• When will Claude 4 be released? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will youtuber Mr.Beast get cancelled before the year end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will there be YouTube app for Apple Vision pro by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will I be able to get an AI to play Inflection Point with me before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• When will Bluesky reach 100 million users? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• How much cheaper to use will o3-equivalent or better models get before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will an LLM be able to solve Raven's Progressive Matrices from an image in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will the first mission of Grand Theft Auto 6 take place in a prison? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Mahmoud Abbas be still alive on the 1st of January 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• 2025 Bingo Card [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Is Willow legit? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• כמה אנשים יגיעו למפגש הסיום של הפודקאסט הארי פוטר והשיטה הרציונלית? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will I discover at least one standout great book this year? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Grand Theft Auto 6 release before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Destiny reach 800k or 900k YouTube subs next? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Mystery: Curioser and Curioser... What caused the deaths of Gene Hackman, his wife, and their dog? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Midjourney Inc. be acquired by another company by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Conditional on a MAGA Republican being elected US President, will NATO be attacked by Russian-allied forces in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Apple sell more than 1 million Vision Pro devices by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will I Achieve 10,000 USD/month by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine hold a presidential election in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• If Putin is forced out of power, will he be placed under house arrest, exiled, or similar? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will at least half of lunar landers launched in 2025 successfuly land? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will any of the western balkan countries join teh EU by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will there be at least 1 commercial flight connecting Beirut and Tel-Aviv during year 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk's Path of Exile account be banned for account sharing or cheating? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• If X happens by EOY 2024, will Netanyahu be replaced as prime minister by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• When Donald Trump visits King Charles, which body parts of the King will he publicly touch? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Israel deploy Iron Beam defense in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• In December 2025, a model by which company will be the most used on OpenRouter LLM Rankings? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will consumer electronics feature room temperature ambient pressure superconductors before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will AI be able to create art in a "human-like way" within Photoshop, GIMP, or Paint.NET by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Hezbollah take hostages? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will NASA confirm the discovery of alien before 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• What olympiads will I attend this year? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will there be Netflix app for Apple Vision pro by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will any Nvidia acquisition be strack down by a regulator by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• How many predictions did the FT writers get wrong for 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• How many cities will have to significant degree implemented Huawei Smart City by the end of 2023? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• How many characters will unicode contain by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Hamas control more than one square kilometer of contiguous territory in Gaza at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Who is ultimately behind the xz backdoor? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu run for the Israeli Knesset next election? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Within a month of Silksong's release, would several large gaming outlets publish articles about its difficulty? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Amazon get this search right by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Russia strike NATO member countries hosting transit bases for Ukrainian military equipment by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine repeal the presidential decree that forbids negotiations with Vladimir Putin by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:00 UTC
• Will the "Save The Darwin Oak" petition succeed? — closes 2025-12-31 22:00 UTC
• Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ? — closes 2025-12-31 22:00 UTC
• Will Hope Hicks accuse Trump of attempting to rape her while she worked in the White House? — closes 2025-12-31 22:13 UTC
• Up to how much would Manifold users be willing to pay/month if Manifold became subscription based? — closes 2025-12-31 22:17 UTC
• Will GTA 6 get delayed? — closes 2025-12-31 22:20 UTC
• Will the CDC have any information on CHS by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:20 UTC
• Will I In Retrospect Value Having Read “If Anyone Builds It” — closes 2025-12-31 22:27 UTC
• What score will GPT-5 achieve on GPQA? — closes 2025-12-31 22:30 UTC
• What score will Anthropic's next Opus model achieve on GPQA? — closes 2025-12-31 22:37 UTC
• Will Gunko turn good? — closes 2025-12-31 22:40 UTC
• Will Belarus invade Ukraine by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:41 UTC
• Prime Minister Carney reverses Trudeau's gun ban? — closes 2025-12-31 22:54 UTC
• What will happen to me in 2025? [Add Answers] — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• If the CIA's JFK assassination documents are declassified, what will they reveal? [ADD YOUR OWN] — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will AGI undergo a hard take-off? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Mario Vrećo 100k+ subscribera na drugom kanalu do kraja 2025. godine — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the portal facilities for the Fehmarn Belt fixed link in Germany finish in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• MSNBC purchased by a right-wing person or organization by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Laurent Gbagbo run for the 2025 presidential election in Ivory Coast ? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Martial law declared in Korea in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will China beat the US in the race to creating a room temperature superconductor? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Knesset (israeli parliament) dissolve during 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will NASA’s Artemis 2 mission be launched successfully before January 1st, 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Destiny discuss AI Safety before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• 2025: Will Elton John still be standing? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will leap seconds still exist on 31 December 2050? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which Millennium Prize problem will be solved in the year 2025 with the help of AI? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Long Covid Moonshot Act Be signed into law? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• What is true of Astro Toilets? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I @henrithunberg like the following movies if I watch them? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will American stocks outperform European stocks in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will George Soros die before June 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will the first NATO troops be on the ground in Ukraine? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I be able to deadlift 2x my own weight by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Poland: Will the CPI inflation in Poland exceed X% by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Alireza Firouzja reach top 5 in the world again before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will wind power account for more than 25% of the EU’s electricity production by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Michael Saylor show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Andrej Babiš be the next prime minister of Czech Republic? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will we see autonomous humanoid farmer robots by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will a human step on the moon before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will any developed country surpass Sweden in school shooting deaths per capita this year? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Trump administration bring racial "segregation to back to hospitals" or "erase EMTALA" by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will two male inspectors kiss in a Tatort before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Thierry Baudet convert to Islam before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Copenhagen historic stock exchange be rebuilt? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will "The Wayward Realms" be released as Early Access by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• How many migrants came to Germany in 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Did white conservative women abruptly and dramatically become depressed/anxious? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Annalena Baerbock be made head of the UN general assembly in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will ChatGPT 5 be capable of not logging you out every other day? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will President Trump attempt to end the climate hysteria in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Ludwig and QT still be together at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• How many USD will the Long Term Future Fund (LTFF) pay out in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Poland begin withdrawal from the Anti-Personnel Landmines Convention by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the "Sky Shield" proposal and European fighter jets over Ukraine become reality in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will ULA's Vulcan rocket launch more often than SpaceX's Starship in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the accusations of fraud against the Georgian Legion prove true? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) decouple from Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Markus Söder head a ministry in the upcoming German government? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which developed country will have the highest number of school shooting deaths per capita in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I record an album with my black metal band in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the 2025 presidential elections in Poland? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• What will my net worth be by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Syria keep the presidential system? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Elon do another suspiciously Roman looking salute by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which video game will I like the most in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Russia/Ukrainian war end before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Apple have on-device TTS that is indistinguishable from a human narrator before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will franco colapinto race in F1 in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I be pegged in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will google announce the closure of google cloud before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will be my most Streamed Spotify Artist 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Manifold change the Twitter icon on profiles before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Bing Chat be the breakthrough for AI safety research? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will ACGIH raise the threshold limit values of the far-UVC (200-230 nm) range again before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will AirBnB make an acquisition in the physical hotel space before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI system be able to fully refactor a 10k+ line codebase before 2026 ? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Mario Vrećo nova selidba u 2025. godini — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Manifold accept PayPal as a payment option before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Trump pressure the EU to stop supporting Ukraine? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will a "flood of pro-Tate rhetoric magically crop up on Twitter"? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will NASA find aliens in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will anybody be sentenced to prison as a result of publishing unintended AI-generated content before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Global CO2 Emissions in 2024 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be fewer than 500 000 malaria deaths worldwide in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk say he believes in God in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Nostr reach 100,000 monthly active users in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which of the following Congolese cities will be controlled by the M23 group on January 1st, 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the pope bless a data center before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Adobe announce an intent to buy Freepik by end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin "Volcano Bonds" from El Salvador be issued by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will any openai employee win a nobel prize in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, die (through causes natural or not) before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will average monthly Android market share drop below 65% before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the ESA Biomass payload fly on an Avio rocket? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the pope launch a coin by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Reddit kill the old layout before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Was the January 29, 2025 mid-air collision caused by a DEI hire? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will AI replicate the book cover of "Artificial Intelligence: Safety and Security" before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will you be able to buy ads in a mainstream AI assistant? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be parliamentary elections in Poland in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Mario Vrećo 50k+ subscribera do kraja 2025. godine na trećem kanalu — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I (@Lion) pay a fine for being a Manifold Partner to the local authorities? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the first operational satellite launched by Starship be a Starlink satellite? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Trump administration go after a SCOTUS justice in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will ASPR be held in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will humans set foot on the moon again? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be "GLOBAL FOOD COLLAPSE! - Shortages Lead To Rations As Globalists Attack Farmers!"? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Apple announce a Smart Ring before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Apple be a title sponsor of any UCI World Tour Team until end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Da li će Mario Vrećo izbaciti klip u 2025. godini koji će do kraja 2025. doći do 1M pregleda — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• [Glimt] Will Russian gas supplies resume through the Nord Stream pipelines in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be an autonomous AI trading bot with real-time information placing bets on Manifold in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Cryptos and Stocks on Manifold 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump sign more than 200 Executive Orders in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Anthony Fauci be seen wearing a mask in public during 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Full self driving cars will be legal with no need for human interaction in any country by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• How many videos will Miguel Piedrafita release in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will apple announce a MacBook with a foldable display by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Are the earthquakes around Greek islands caused by a technological artifact waking up? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Taiwan, Moon, Nuclear - Entangled market — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will CZEA acquire a new coworking space? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will we get AGI before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will Apple replace Google as the default search engine on Safari? (iPhone or MacBook) — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• In which months of 2025 will there be a general federal election (Bundestagswahl) in Germany? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Gpt-5 >=95% on MMLU? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Cocoa price in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Togashi Yoshihiro publish a new chapter of Hunter × Hunter in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Boston Consulting Group generate more revenue than McKinsey in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• What will be President Donalds Trump approval rating on December 31st, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Putin's approval in Russia fall below 80% in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be appointed to an official U.S. government advisory role if Donald Trump is re-elected? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be charged with vote buying or election bribery? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Starting from 4000Ṁ, what will my mana nw be by the end of the year? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• In 2025, what % of EA lists "AI risk" as their top cause? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will Starship flight 9 happen? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will be the richest person at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I learn 10 finger typing in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Slay the Spire 2 get overwhelmingly positive reviews on Steam? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the U.S. federal government formally launch an investigation into Dr. Anthony Fauci before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8.5 or greater occur in the Pacific Ring of Fire before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Mario Vrećo 40+ klipova u 2025. godini na glavnom kanalu — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a large backlash amongst Trump supporters because of the $TRUMP meme coin in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2025?🧠🕵️ — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Mikhail Mishustin stay the Prime Minister of Russia through 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Python's new No-GIL become officially supported before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• How many books will my Reading club read in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Jack Dorsey delete his Twitter (X) account by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week) — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Poland: Will PiS popularity drop below 25% in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• The US becomes much more like shadowrun by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will BRICS introduce other new members (1 or more) before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Twitter adopt nostr protocol before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Google Trends: Most searched MUSICIAN in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• IF Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested (for war crimes) by 2025, what country will he be arrested in? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will any other straw hat ever get conquerers haki? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will a company from a NATO country build a tank in Ukraine by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Mario Vrećo 100k+ followera na instagramu do kraja 2025. godine — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Mario Vrećo nov auto u 2025. godini — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Da li će Mario Vrećo i dalje biti drug sa Brankom do kraja 2025. godine — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Google Trends: Most searched ATHLETE in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which programming language will be the most admired in Stack Overflow's 2025 survey? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will Russia launch an armed attack against a NATO country within one year? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• What will Harvey (Legal AI funded by OpenAI) be valued at in their next round/deal? (in millions) — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• If Trump is elected, will he implement one of the policies listed in the description? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Robin Hanson get AGI-pilled in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will AI get regulated after the US president election until the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will it be known in 2025 that the astronauts Joe Biden stranded in space needed therapy for the trauma endured? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will an open-source AI video model comparable to Sora from OpenAI be released? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I achieve a BMI of less than or equal to 23 in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Trump revoke the temporary legal status of Ukrainian refugees in 2025 before the war has ended? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will CGP Grey release Part 1 of his “Reservations” series before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Mario Vrećo 600k subscribera do kraja 2025. — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will AI-related news in 2025 have a bigger media impact than covid19-related news had in 2020? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Next Entain CEO — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will any ai/ml researcher win a nobel prize in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Mario Vrećo 30+ klipova u 2025. godini na glavnom kanalu — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will a Level 4 autonomous vehicle service be operating publicly in at least five major cities globally by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Top 10 Most popular programming language at the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• How many video game live action adaptations will be released in theaters in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will we solve AI alignment by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• will i weight more than 75kg at the end f the 2025 (first year of work) — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the CBS/Kamala situation go down as the biggest broadcasting SCANDAL in history? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman receive a significant equity stake in OpenAI? (>= 3% of the company) before end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will AI be able to describe the state of a chessboard from an image before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be an ISIS terrorist attack in France in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will "BavariaGPT" be published and perform on par with Mistral 7B by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will The John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act of 2021 pass the Senate before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will We Have a C-3PO Level Humanoid Robot by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Did OpenAI use MUP for zero shot hyper-parameter transfer in GPT-4? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• To what extent do professional literary translators (of books such as novels, memoirs, etc...) use machine translation? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump be the President of the USA on December 31, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Is DOGE part of ASI takeover? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• 2025: Will Putin's approval in Russia increase? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Kim Jong Un go abroad in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will it be possible to convert mana into real money either on Manifold or any other platform by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Grand Theft Auto. Release date GTA 6 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• 2025 Recap — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Accountability: Schoof Cabinet - Will the Dutch Cabinet deliver on these goals and promises? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• 2025 One Piece Bingo — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which German states will have Sarah Wagenknecht's BSW in their parliaments after their next elections? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Oceangate cease to operate before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be legal consequences for Elon Musk's interview with Alice Weidel on Jan. 9.? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Sweden try to ban burning the Quran by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump sign more than 300 Executive Orders in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the No One Lives Forever video game series be legally available again by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• GPT-5 will be launched (available to the public) in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• What will happen to Warty in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽ — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will X (formerly Twitter) release credit cards before EoY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Nvidia Stock price at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' become the highest-grossing movie of all time? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will USDT (Tether USD) depeg? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will win FIDE Circuit 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Kanye West hospitalized in a mental institution in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will it be confirmed before 2026 that there was a letter to the board of OpenAI motivated by AI breakthrough? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will FTX creditors get back more than 100%? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who's behind Silent Majority (Hunter x Hunter)? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will SPD be officially part of the next Czech government? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will be the next World Leader to Leave? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I floss my teeth daily until the end of the year? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will have the most popular AI assistant at the end of 2025? (judged by active users) — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which war will end first? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will an open-source AI music model comparable to Udio be released? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Y. Lecun turn AI doomer by end 2025 ? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which Japanese honkaku authors will be picked up by Pushkin Vertigo before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Artemis II launch before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I give up caffeinated drinks until the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• What will be Scott Alexander's P(zoonosis) at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will it be effectively impossible to tell a human and a high quality AI apart on social media before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Nassim Taleb publish a new book in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which of these world leaders will be guests of Lex Fridman Podcast before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I hand in my Bachelor's Thesis at least 24 hours before the deadline? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Donald and Melania Trump be divorced before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• How many video game adaptations will be released in theaters in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Most modern companies prefer AI for code reviews 3 months after gpt5 is released? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will SAP SE be the biggest European company by market cap on the 31st of December, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Apple reduce the price of the Apple Vision Pro before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the UCSF AER002 phase 2 pilot trial show statistically significantly positive results? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Ukraine and Russia conflict ends within 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Google Trends: Most searched NEWS in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Gulf Stream system (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse before end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will python without GIL be released before end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will be my exact Top 2 most streamed artists on Spotify in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Vladimir Putin relocate OUT of Russia before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Norway have a new vote on EU membership in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Friedrich Merz sue Elon Musk for his support of the 'AfD' in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a popular market on a new claimed superconductor by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will currently unknown reasons for why the Mavs decided to trade Luka Doncic to the Lakers emerge by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will get more Points in the 2025 Formula 1 Season? Driver Duell — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Apple announce a Vision Pro 2 by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will X (formerly Twitter) have a stock investing feature before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Did Javier Milei rugpull all of his followers? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before Skibidi Toilet episode 78 is released in full? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will a national referendum take place in 2025 in France? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will I hit 10,000 Mana? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI's Operator be available in the EU by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will acquire 23andMe? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will first be fined under the Digital Markets Act? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Was seizure of the devices of Shayne Coplan, Polymarket CEO, motivated by political retribution? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will one USD be worth more than one euro by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• In retrospect, would Sam Altman being fired from OpenAI be a net negative to alignment? (EoY 2025) — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the East African Federation be a member of the UN before 2030? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Hello Internet upload a new episode by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• If there is an OpenAI Hollywood adaptation before 2026, what will it be? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will any model of the LMSYS chatbot arena top 30 at the end of 2025 use Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN)? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Is superposition true? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Top 10 Most popular social media at the end of 2024 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk create account on Nostr by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the « Righteous Judges » panel from the Ghent Altarpiece by the van Eyck brothers be found by the end of 2025 ? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• ⚽ Who will be the next coach of Real Madrid, after Carlo Ancelotti? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will PleasantGreen published a video of scammers using AI before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Poland: Will PiS popularity drop below 25% in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Is Peter Todd Satoshi Nakamoto? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I spend a week only eating vegetables before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Jeremy Renner return to the MCU by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the EU force messaging apps to scan encrypted messages for CSAM? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will anybody leak classified documents to settle a market on Manifold Markets before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will an international space-junk clean up initiative begin before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Google Trends: Most searched GAMES in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Rasmus Paludan be in jail, dead, disappeared or on the run on December 31st, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will OpenAI release an AI Video model (sora) with audio/sound? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the US and China be at war with each other before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I still be in my degree by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Stan Wawrinka retire from tennis before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Shoggoth be mentioned in If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will team Jumbo-Visma merge with team Soudal Quick-Step for the 2026 UCI road cycling season? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• In 2025, what percentage of EAs are non-male? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will adversarially modified images produced by ANN be confirmed to weakly work on humans? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will a precolonial city be found in the Amazon rainforest that is larger than any city found there thus far? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Could I buy a legit 8TB (8To) microSD card on amazon before 2026 ? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Number of people with net worth above 50,000 Manifold bans in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will there be an announcement of a model with a training compute of over 1e30 FLOPs by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Game Banana get banned on Steam before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• LLMs by EOY 2025: Will Retentive Learning Surpass Transformers? (Subsidised 400 M$) — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• What USD/RUB exchange rates will be reached in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will AI-operated haircuts be bookable in at least two cities by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will Apple shift 100% of the sourcing for the Vision Pro micro-OLED displays from Sony to a Chinese partner? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which stablecoin (USDT, USDC, BUSD or DAI) will depeg first? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will data Shapley values be used to efficiently detect poisoned samples? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will any low probability Q-Anon prediction come true before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Stuttgart 21 finish before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• What will be true of Skibidi Toilet episode 78? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Israel be victorious in the current Gaza-Israel conflict? [According to Wikipedia] — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which of the following social platforms will die first? (die = lose >50% of average monthly active users YoY) — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Berenson v. Biden be dismissed? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Mistral's next model make it to the top 10 models in LLM Arena by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Argentine national Televisión Pública cease to exist by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will NATO still exist by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will someone run a marathon wearing an Apple Vision Pro? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will 'bioweapon' reach a new peak in Google Trends before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• How will One piece live action season 2 change the IMDB rating? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• The next big fight..? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Denmark introduce 500 percent tariffs for Ozempic in the US in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Parkour Civilization 3 come out before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• In which quarter will NIST publish AI "red team" standards? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025, will OpenAI and Anthropic merge? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Rammstein disband before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Jon Jones fight Tom Aspinall in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Meta adopt nostr protocol in some app or service (Facebook, Threads, Instagram, WhatsApp) before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Hsu and Morandini's fraudulent autogynephilia study be retracted? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will a electric car surpass 1000km range by 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Zizian activity on Manifold demonstrated before the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump join Bluesky by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold because of sweepstakes before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Tinder still be the top dating app in 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Was Alexei Navalny killed [see description]? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I be able to bench my own weight by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I not regret eating 30-40 olives? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Is Magnus Carlsen on Manifold? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• More uproar when the Department of Education is cut down to size than around USAID? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will Manifold run out of money? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Apple announce a successor to Airpods Pro 2 before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will a further official meme coin named after a Trump family member be released in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Switzerland vote to allow usage of nuclear energy again? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI's Sora be available in the EU by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• 2025: Will Gloria Gaynor survive? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Magnus Carlsen stay the top-rated chess player through 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• How many TWh of solar energy will be generated globally in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the next pope be based? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will Mike Johnson resign or be removed as speaker of the house? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which country will abolish monarchy next? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin break $150k in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Apple set up it's own financial services department or subsidiary before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Twitter/X buy Manifold before December 31st 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Mario Vrećo Collab sa Muđom u 2025. godini — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I restrict my food-buying behaviour in line with the rules of this market until the end of the year? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Phil Illy admit to the problem in Hsu and Morandini's fraudulent autogynephilia study? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Mark Milley's military rank at the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Netflix One Piece live action adaptation be cancelled before a third season? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Ukraine Presidential election — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Disney announce the construction of a 5th major theme park at Walt Disney World by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• 1 day before the explosion, what will be the % at the linked market about "nuclear offensive detonation in 2025"? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will the ‘big one’ happen this year? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Max Verstappen move to Mercedes in F1 2025 or 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I run a sub 25 min 5k in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.0090 in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which chess prodigy will have the highest Elo rating at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will i get legally married before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Google Trends: Most searched PASSING in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Is Crémieux a woman? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the Tesla "Model 2" start deliveries before then end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Tesla deliver over 2 million vehicles in the calendar year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will a manifold user have 100k sweepcash before EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine lower the mobilization age to 18 in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Mario Vrećo novi merch do kraja 2025. godine — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Netflix release original content based on a visual novel by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• What will my gross salary be in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Hans Herman-Hoppe show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Tesla officially announce the development or launch of a new transportation vehicle type by December 31, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• By 31 December 2025, will President Trump or President-elect Trump refer to a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Geraint Thomas win another Grand Tour before retiring? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Official death penalty in Russia — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• In a UN vote in 2025, Poland votes with the US and against more than 20 EU countries? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will USD decrease 10% by the end of 2025 relative to EUR? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Who will be the Prime Minister of Poland on January 1, 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Manifold bring back calibration before LLMs are smart enough to provide a better calibration graph? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Something Happens (YES) VS Nothing Ever Happens (NO) 2024-2025 — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Plutus.it (Block Code Ltd) go out of business before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will I significantly deconvert Eliezer Yudkowsky from Bayesianism by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• CS2: Will G2 Esports win a CS2 Major in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Which game will be released first? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Android still be the #1 OS used worldwide (any platforms) by 2026 ? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Trump's import tariffs on Canada and Mexico be in effect and at least at 25% by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will this idea for enhancing intelligence in adult humans through genetic engineering work? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Games Workshop produce multicoloured miniatures with rules to use them in any of their mainline games (Warhammer 40000 / Age of Sigmar) by 01/01/2026? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• When will Trump and Elon “break up” / have a serious public falling out? — closes 2025-12-31 22:59 UTC
• Will you be able to buy Cannabis legally in Germany before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:00 UTC
• Will the ChatGPT UI/UX change significantly before the end of 2025, altering core user interactions and functionality? — closes 2025-12-31 23:00 UTC
• Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:00 UTC
• Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:00 UTC
• Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028? — closes 2025-12-31 23:00 UTC
• Will a commercial passenger airliner be hijacked anywhere in the world by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:00 UTC
• Will a global* internet outage lasting more than 1 hour occur by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:00 UTC
• Will a global* internet outage lasting more than 5 minutes occur by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:00 UTC
• A NATO member officially announces intention to leave NATO before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 23:00 UTC
• Will the server survive until 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:00 UTC
• Will a global* internet outage lasting more than 24 hours occur by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:00 UTC
• Before 2026, will a neuroimaging study provide explicit support to symmetry theory of valence? — closes 2025-12-31 23:01 UTC
• Will a girl I like be poly? — closes 2025-12-31 23:04 UTC
• Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:21 UTC
• Will I judge Feroblogin to be a success, based on a genova metabolomix test and labcorp blood tests? — closes 2025-12-31 23:32 UTC
• Will Bitcoin reach $111,111 USD before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:52 UTC
• When will Frontier Airlines first offer transatlantic flights? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• On what continent will Jet Lag Season 14 take place? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Kerbal Space Program 2 officially stop development in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a manned commercial space station in orbit at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many films will I see in the cinema this year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which places will be within the zone of Hide+Seek 4 of Jet Lag: The Game? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will be true of the winner of ACX Everything-Except-Book Review Contest 2025? [Add Responses] — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US government require AI labs to run safety/alignment evals by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What quarter and year will Silksong be released in? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many times will numeric markets be deprecated in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Anthropic launch something cryptocurrency related in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk publicly donate more than €100k euros to the German AfD party before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will arxiv be credibly accused of political censorship in 2023, 2024, or 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will win Taskmaster UK Series 19? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Claude 4 achieve over 95% on the MMLU-Pro benchmark by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What milestones will the (on-screen) Step Count reach in ClaudePlaysPokemon? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any submission exceed 90% for the Konwinski Prize? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will WTI hit 50 or 100 before the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When dreamchaser launches, will it land on the runway succcessfully? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will the results of @Astatide42's first poll on the colour of a proton be? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which organization will nik work for before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many vetoes will Trump issue in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the arrested labour councillor, Ricky Jones, be sentenced for longer than a year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which Countries will the US agree to trade deals with by EOY25? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• AI is #1 competitive coder in CodeForces by EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will AlphaEvolve reduce Gemini training time by at least 5% by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Nintendo Switch 2 include StreetPass (or a similar feature?) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a Malcolm in the Middle revival before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI or Microsoft produce a comsumer hardware device built on ChatGPT before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Tony's weight lower than 90kg — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will anyone with a net worth below $1 Million Mana win Masters League in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will an okay outcome occur for humanity? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Tulsi Gabbard convicted of perjury? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will i knowingly eat or buy something that isn't vegan before eoy 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump still be married by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By the end of 2024 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What be Manifold’s response to Peter Njeim’s sketchy resolution of the 2025 Canadian election market? (Add answers!) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Starship conduct a manned launch before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will Barbie and Oppenheimer fuse into one super-movie? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which company has best Computer Agent AI model end of 2025? (Computer Agent Arena Leaderboard) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Days until tariffs roll back to less than 10% after the tax cut passes? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Bay Bridge lights be back on by the end of the year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the UN create a social media network by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any UK political party consistently poll at 30% or higher in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Trump administration issues price controls by end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will OpenAI release its first model with "X" in the name? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many more months will it take for me (a bot) to beat my maker in manifold net worth? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Lex Fridman interview Connor Leahy for the Lex Fridman Podcast before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a AI-first "pin" product sell more than 100,000 units by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Congress override a veto in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• In 2025, will I think I should have paid attention to the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly spike? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the war in Ukraine be officially over by december 2025 ? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Russian/Byelorussian forces act in Suwalki Gap before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Teslas drive to buyers house by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Pitt Season 2 premiere before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US admit more than 2 million immigrants in any year before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• DOGE rebuild of SSA codebase results in HIPAA breach — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will be the highest effective US tariff rate on China by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the tonnes of biomass burned in forest fires increase? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• White House mentions Winnie the Pooh in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the DOJ decline to prosecute a member of the Trump administration who is held in contempt of court in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Chip Security Act becomes law in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What country will the new Pope visit first? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Is Cassava ($SAVA) fraudulent... — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US stop issuing O-1 visas in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI have revenues of at least $5 billion (ARR) by the end of year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Turkey have an economic collapse by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Trump set a new record low approval rating this year? [Below 34.0% on Silver Bulletin] — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Russia-Ukraine war conclude in a negotiated settlement? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Cloud Providers see greater revenue growth in 2025 than AI companies? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Conor McGregor be arrested before the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Carlos Ghosn run a car company again by 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Neural Nets will be able to design, code and distribute whole apps by the end of 2025. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be self driving taxis in London before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will my right eye's glasses (negative) SPH prescription be in 2025, if I get an eye test in that year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will First Light Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any type of cryptocurrency be outlawed? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will be my all-time mana profit (in thousands) at the end of each month in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• CyberSecurity: How much will Code Vulnerabilities (Published CVE Records) increase in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Pope Leo XIV openly criticize Trump in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will vibes support multi-language tools beyond TypeScript by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the U.S. inflation rate exceed 5% at any point in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which release of Linux kernel will have the first Rust-only driver for consumer-grade hardware ? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Geometry Dash update 2.21 release date? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Neural Nets will be able to write bestselling novels by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a half-trillionaire by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Andreessen Horowitz profit off of their investment in Flow (Adam Neumann)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Cluely (formerly, Interview Coder) end Leetcode at a FAANG or Unicorn before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman be killed by AI? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will Pokémon Bank shut down? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a malaria vaccine be deployed to >1M humans in 2023-2024? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many times will ULA launch in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Has PLA General Wang Houbin (王厚斌) been arrested? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 AGAIN decrease by over 5% in one day in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will Frontier airlines fly its first flight using the A321XLR plane? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• 100k unauthorized immigrants “self-deport” using CBP Home app by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Mark — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which album released in 2025 will be Manifold's favorite? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the metals company inc. ($TMC) reach ≥ $3.90 before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will come SECOND in the 2025 Las Vegas Freestyle chess tournament? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Big terrorist attack in Europe by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Level 1 circuit breaker is tripped on the NYSE before December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which company has best Vision AI model end of 2025? (Vision Arena Leaderboard) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Rafał Trzaskowski will win the 2025 Polish Presidential Election — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Noam Chomsky be alive to witness the development of AGI? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• FDA legalizes magic mushrooms/psilocybin/etc. for clinical use by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Rent prices will begin decreasing in December of 2022 in most US cities. Rents will continue to decrease for 3 years. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Does trump have any clue what he’s doing with his trade war ? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will Pokemon Legends Z-A be released? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which scientists featured in "Thank You, Dr. Fauci" will strongly protest errors in the movie in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will I leave the Bay Area? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Joshua Block go to jail before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the first rocket launch from the UK's SaxaVord spaceport be successful? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• AutoGPT style agents will prove in the longer run the proper way to get automation of medium complexity tasks. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I have sex with a man this year — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Manifold users stop requesting site changes via market creation by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Elon Musk influences 2025 conclave? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Luminar be delisted by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• In what year will 15 items on the CoolFold 100 Challenge have happened ? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Judge T. Chutkan preside over Donald Trump’s trial for interfering with Congress certifying the election outcome? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis Ricon attend orgy in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which country will have the largest decline in GDP from 2024 to 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will El Salvador return Kilmar Ábrego García to the United States before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Eliezer Yudkowsky wears fedora at in-person book promotion before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Louvre announce that they are cleaning the Mona Lisa in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Manifold Markets Will No Longer Exist in 2025. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the EU officially weaken or invalidate U.S. intellectual property rights before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will AI be able to outperform Elon Musk as CEO of Twitter before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Eliezer Yudkowsky or Nate Soares appear on the 80,000 Hours Podcast before 31 December 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will BTC reach $1M before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Battle of 2025 Blockbusters: Superman or Jurassic World?” — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How low will S&P500 go in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a special prosecutor be appointed by a federal court to prosecute a member of the Trump administration in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Chungin 'Roy' Lee on 2026 Forbes 30 Under 30 list? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Novel human infectious disease identified by WHO before EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Conditional on Labour winning the next election, will English housing rents increase by more than 3% in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• A Screen Actor's Guild supported TV Show or Movie will list an AI in its writing credits before the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Top Multi-SWE-bench score in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Ukraine war end with Ukraine controlling nearly all Ukrainian territory INCLUDING Crimea? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Texas bans vapes and snacks containing THC in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Given growing ethical concerns, will live animal displays continue? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the first rocket launch from the UK's Sutherland spaceport be successful? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will BTC price reach $150,000 before EOY2025？ — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be another Scottish Independence referendum by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Kseniia Petrova be deported to Russia? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will bitcoin hit $200,000 or $20,000 in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which movie released in 2025 will be Manifold's favorite? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will 6 or more Tory MPs resign from their seats before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• First 1500 km range electric car released by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How high will US inflation be in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I find practical use for agents like OpenAI's Operator in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• US effective tariff rate in Q4 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Pope Leo XIV on Joe Rogan's podcast in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the tariffs be successful in bringing back manufacturing to the US ? (2025) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Major reconciliation bill signed into law by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Bottom 50% of US income distribution's real incomes will grow over 2% annually on average from beginning of 2022 to end of 2025. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any real money prediction market let you bet using indices rather than fiat/crypto by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will we see highly sophisticated AI-based aged account sockpuppet swarms before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will this "new color" find a use in industry before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will "SPINNING PLATES OF MEANING ON A NEEDLE MADE OF LIGHT!" receive 10,000 listens in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Peter Retarrdo not trade advisor to Trump by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How high will the US tariff rate get in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• No new countries join the European Union (EU) in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Kim Jong Un congratulate Donald J. Trump for any reason before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• can i get hike in 2025(don't bet on it its for testing) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Aella? Will Nick Deck 'er? (Aella-Decker 2025 hookup market) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which media sources do manifold users trust? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Number of US states with legal sports betting surpasses 40 before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will Primitive Technology on Youtube create his next useful iron item? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many songs will LEXER listen to this year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Polymarket moves away from UMA Resolutions in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US Federal Reserve issue any rate cuts from May 2025 to end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What percent of Trump's 114,750,000 Truth Social stock shares will he still own at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will be true of Pokémon Champions? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$10M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which category will have the most successful challenges at BASH 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Waymo rider harmed by anti-Waymo protestor by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will India invade Pakistan in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will South Park season 27 mention the current Israel/Palestine conflict — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What is the rate of Treatment Related Adverse Events with CTCAE >= 3 at the RD for AZD0022 monotherapy in NCT06599502? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Eiffel Tower be attacked by terrorists by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will win Bolivia's 2025 presidential election? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many states will ban fluoride in drinking water in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will working as a programmer in the US require certifications/qualifications by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Government official gives Nathan pushback about Fielder Method in Rehearsal Season 2? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Amit fail to repay any loan by the end of the loan term? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the Democratic nomination for Mayor of New York? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• In what year will the Burj Azizi be open to the public? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Conditional on no mitigating action, will anyone steal or vandalize our giant chess set in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Cybertruck will outsell F150 by 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which countries or groups will retaliate against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the next Archbishop of Canterbury be Female? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US obesity rate stop rising by 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will come out as conservative in 2025? (Add answers) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any nation leave the EU by 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• OpenAI updates custom GPTs by EOY2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Behrens lab will solve the brain in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How much money will GiveWell raise, excluding from Open Philanthropy, in 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will GTA 6 release before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any currently well-known conservative figure publicly defend Hitler in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• [Add options] TheAllMemeingEye love life prop bets 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will Starship flight 10 happen? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Sizewell C nuclear power station go ahead? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will we know why the FBI raided the home of Xiaofeng Wang before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will an exomoon be discovered by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Yuan at 8 dollars in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I spend a significant amount of time on creating chances for Yudkowsky to get a prestigious prize in literature (or find someone who’ll do that)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will XAI & X do in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which features on the Kerbal Space Program 2 roadmap will be released by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Storm-related home insurance claims exceed 600 million euros in 2025 in the UK? (Resolution through ABI) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will at least one of Bryan Caplan's kids matriculate into an Ivy League school? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin hit $250,000 before the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will come first in the 2025 Portuguese General Election? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Secret Immaculate Constellation Pentagon program revelation causes detention time before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will geometric deep learning turn out to be as influential an idea as transformers? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Jesse Singal be banned from Bluesky before EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will someone [in 2025] tell Jose Luis Ricon that he is genuinely their FAVORITE person in the world? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Kamala Harris leading 2028 Democratic primary polls at end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Manifold enacts change to make markets more liquid by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Manifold have an ad on the Las Vegas Sphere before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Republican Congress speaks out against Trump in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• GPT-5 score on Aider polyglot? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How much percentage of ocean will be explore by human physically in end of 2025 ? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will GPDR stop all EU residents using some significant LLM products by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Elon acquire Polymarket? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Did Tesla defraud the Canadian government by falsifying sales figures in January 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the first "Nintendo Switch 2 Edition" games allow multiple consoles/accounts to get the upgrades? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Size of smallest open-source LLM marching GPT 3.5's performance in 2025? (GB) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Andreessen Horowitz still be active in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will MIRI run an end of 2025 fundraiser? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will France recognize Palestine by EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31st, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will I loan Mana to in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Greg hikes how many miles on the Pacific Crest Trail in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• GPT-6 release by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• CA cities failing their housing element is gonna be a colossal ($100s Billions) deal, in hindsight in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• GPT-5 score on GPQA Diamond? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will California SB 1047 pass? | What will the highest Chatbot Arena elo of an open source model be at the start of 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which companies will be in the top 10 worldwide by market cap at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• JD Vance on TBPN before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which of these actions will reasonably improve my social life by eoy 2025? (add answers) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Google announce the closure of Google Cloud on or before 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will signs of life on K2-18b be confirmed? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How much of SSA's COBOL code will DOGE successfully replace by December 31, 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• @kbot profit in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Do it be? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will be the S&P closing price at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What year will the UK TV Licence Fee be axed? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• 🏦 The All Memeing Bank 🏦 - will I lend more than 100k mana in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Manifold offers market recommendations in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman mention "microplastic" publicly anywhere in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025, the CDF experiment's 2022 measurement of the W boson mass will be supported by another experiment. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Globo produce a telenovela about AI before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will OpenAI do in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Sydney be free? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Mr.Beast create/announce something like a #TeamSees to cure blindness around the world — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a AI-first "pin" product sell more than 1 million units by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI still be considered one of the top players in AI by end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the SSTL Lunar Pathfinder satellite be a success? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Veritasium make a youtube video about AI Alignment or Existential Risks in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Meta ordered to divest a major subsidiary by EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will YouTube bring back the dislike count by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will AI get BOTH gold and either bronze or silver on the IMO by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will we have a superhuman mathematician by the beginning of 2026 (as defined here: https://twitter.com/ChrSzegedy/status/1598341927828594688)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Google DeepMind hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• At the end of the war, will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territory they didn’t control at the start? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a crash in revenue from internet advertising before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will be true of the Community movie? [Add Responses] — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the war between Russia and Ukraine end in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which of these nations / defacto independent territories will survive 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Eric‘s Body Weight below 90kg before EOY2025？ — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will DNA be the first sport climb confirmed 9c? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will greyhounds be allowed off-leash in Victoria, Australia by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a Yesh Atid coalition lead Israel after next election — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will be in the Israeli government following the next elections? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will win PACE NSC 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• A US federal judge will be impeached by end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who leaves office first Trump or Putin (for any reason)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• This market has a 1/1000 chance of resolving YES each day. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any of the top 10 countries in The Economist’s 2025 Democracy Index have a directly elected head of government? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Kerbal Space Program 2 fulfill its entire roadmap by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I consider the transgender rights movement in America to have “basically won” by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Nathan Young asks Musk out? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• ARC-AGI-2 Top Score in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Denizhan Akar still use Google Docs as his sole personal knowledge management system by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• what will be the most popular pet in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will happen to Trump's tariff war in 2025? (Add answers) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I gain kernel-level privileges on my Switch 2, in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will King Charles die before December 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• SPY reaches 669 by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Congress confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the UK experience major riots in 2025, on a similar scale to those experienced in 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Donald Trump announces a plan to serve a third term before January 1, 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Russian forces capture Pokrovsk by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will California set a new record high price for regular gas by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many papal conclaves will start during 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Tom Aspinall fights Jon Jones for UFC heavyweight title in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the METR long-horizons have a >6 month doubling time for at least a 4 month period before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Montana's SB 146 zoning bill be signed into law? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will LeBron James be chosen as the next pope? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• China bans import of US films in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Singapore's 2024 birth rate, as a percentage of Hong Kong's 2024 birth rate, increase by at least 3% versus the same comparison in 2023? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as president of Ukraine in the next election? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I become a Candidate Master on Codeforces by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• If PredictIt has to shut down, will they let traders get their money out? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Nintendo's Project Rockstock launch before the release of the Nintendo Switch 2? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will at least 10 UK riot related prosecutions be overturned or have their sentences shortened in the next 2 years? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 increase in each of the last three quarters of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will powerful (magnitude 8.0 or more) earthquake hit city of Almaty (this is a city in Kazakhstan) before end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the United States population cross 350 million by end of year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will NASA confirms discovery of aliens in end of 2025 ? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will happen by the end of 2025 under President Trump's tariff policies? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis Ricon have his own cult by eoy2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• DOJ criminal charges against Goldberg/Atlantic in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any US Congress member face any disciplinary action due to insider trading in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Manifold hit another record low number of daily active trading users in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• $5 Trillion company at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 "Information Technology" sector exceed 30% by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Musk out? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Loki's Flashback begin in Chapter 1144? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the EA Forum or LessWrong start using EigenKarma by 2025 (public experiments included)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Jeremy Clarkson explicitly back a major UK political party in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the U.S. U-17 YMNT win any awards in the 2025 U-17 FIFA World Cup? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 New Jersey Republican gubernatorial nomination? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Obamas divorced before EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who Abstracts next in the Amazing Digital Circus? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will be the next member of the UK front bench to lose their job — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a vote confirmed for a united Ireland before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Conor McGregor go to rehab for alcohol and/or drugs before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX be more valuable than Tesla by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Flamengo win a relevant title 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Kevin De Bruyne's next club after Manchester City — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Karmelo Anthony be convicted of first-degree murder for the killing of Austin Metcalf? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) distribute grants more than 10% of the US NIH's total grants in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• NYU financially sanctioned for racial discrimination in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• @alextes stock — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Non-Trump supporters, would you prefer Trump or Xi to be your head of government? (Holding institutions constant) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will “Groove Coaster: Future Performers” release? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By when will Cursor agent be able to create "Cursor rules" according to the official docs? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Is at least one of the stories about an innocent person deported by the US to prison in El Salvador substantially true? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Elon Musk enters rehab in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I meet my reading goal by the end of the year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the Fantasy Beisbol fantasy league? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Judge Boasberg removed in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Mr Beast’s Youtube channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will I believe is the most important publicly available video on the internet at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Musk win his current (second) case against OpenAI or receive more than $100mn in settlement? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will fewer than 5% of adult New Zealanders be smokers by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 10 million USD in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Sergey Brin or Larry Page returns to a daily leadership role at Google/Alphabet in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024 or 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will flagship LLMs begin integrating advertisements into their responses before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$1M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a direct Morrocco-UK power cable operating by end of 2035? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a major technology company publicly admit to using a LLM for important decision making before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a hung parliament following the next UK general election? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will X be unavailable in the UK at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will AWS remain the market share leader in cloud infrastructure services by Q4 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By which dates will the "Fusaka" Ethereum hard fork take place? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Neural Nets will have human-level situational awareness by the end of 2025. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• China and EU announce new trade agreement this year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will china unban Google in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Edward Snowden be pardoned by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Trump pardon a member of his administration to avoid their prosecution for being held in contempt of court in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• US sanctions on Alexandre de Moraes before EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will B.I.G. be the first sport climb confirmed 9c? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• I will help >20 people resolve chronic pain by December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will first named hurricane hit Florida in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many Trump Admin Cabinet members will resign or be fired by the start of 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Slay the Spire 2 be on Switch (or successor) by end 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will hax's mother file a lawsuit against one or more of the tournament organizers that banned him by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Cat Ferguson win a UCI Women's WorldTour race in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Would a Manifold meetup in these cities get 10+ participants this year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI say GPT-5 is AGI? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Binance collapse before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will common shareholders recover any value from 23andMe's bankruptcy? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will William, Prince of Wales ever be crowned King of the United Kingdom? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• If the chance for this market to resolve is even, this market will resolve yes. Otherwise it resolves no. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Asap Rocky releases "Don't be Dumb" album in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Neural Nets will beat any human on computer tasks a typical white-collar worker can do in 10 minutes by the end of 2025. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Google cancel an LLM-based product by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Tetra have a deed poll or other somewhat official change of name by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the color Green have at least 2% market share as a popular car color in the USA at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Google announce the closure of Google Cloud on or before 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many Trump Admin Cabinet members will be resigned or fired by the start of 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Mini be cited in an academic journal by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the first living human on Mars be of US nationality? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Sergey Brin or Larry Page returns to a daily leadership role at Google/Alphabet before end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I manage to get money for my torn dollar bills? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Turkey have an economic collapse by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a debate between Destiny and Asmongold before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many more months will it take for me (a bot) to beat my maker in manifold net worth? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Humza Yousaf be First Minister of Scotland at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Size of smallest open-source LLM marching GPT 3.5's performance in 2025? (GB) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Labour introduce a wealth tax? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 reach a 1000 rating on Codeforces? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• KMM will be an archived project on Github by December 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will an AI tool in an ebook app allow for any selected text to be explained in simpler terms by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• The Great Racism Challenge — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the first human landing on Mars take place before the next human landing on the Moon? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the "BV100" nuclear-powered battery become commercially available by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift and Harry Styles collaborate on a track before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will California SB 1047 pass? | What will the highest Chatbot Arena elo of an open source model be at the start of 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the next Star Trek movie be set in the Kelvin timeline? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Elon acquire Polymarket? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will South Park season 27 criticize Israel or the United States' support for Israel? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Big terrorist attack in Europe by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• I go to sleep early every day until I submit my bachelors? (2nd attempt) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I have a research position at MIRI by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will my chess elo rating be at the end of the year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the District Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will EA split into 2 parties before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What nootropics will Tetraspace find exciting, if she takes them? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• what will be the most popular pet in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any current member of Congress leave their party before 2026. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman mention "microplastic" publicly anywhere in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Is the Unique Games Conjecture true? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Faith Kipyegon become the first woman to break four minutes in the mile as part of the Breaking4 project? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will Frontier Airlines first offer transatlantic flights? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will General Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 30 million USD in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• JD Vance on TBPN before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will at least one of Bryan Caplan's kids matriculate into an Ivy League school? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• QQQ outperforms SPY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will India and Pakistan go to war in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Trump admin take action against The Atlantic over signal story — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden be indicted before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• @kbot profit in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Eric‘s Body Weight below 90kg before EOY2025？ — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will GTA 6 release before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• I'm insane by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will the first robot be made that can go into a near-arbitrary kitchen and make a cup of tea? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a hybrid cultivated and plant-based meat product be commercially available in the US by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• ARC-AGI-2 Top Score in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Houthis cut any Red Sea fiber optic cable in retaliation to US/UK attacks? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• If LMs store info as features in superposition, does # features scale superlinearly with number of model parameters? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will be the first Cabinet member to leave in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will I loan Mana to in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Metroid Prime 4 be released for the Nintendo Switch? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will OpenAI announce o4 (full) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Pete Hegseth have another major gaffe before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Neural Nets will be able to write bestselling novels by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Infectious disease outbreak at CECOT by end-of-year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By 2026, will the majority of the USA flu vaccine supply be egg-free? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Major reconciliation bill signed into law by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will either China or the United States shoot down a manned aircraft belonging to the other one before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Musk and Tump will fall out by end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• AI system seeks power in a way that wasn't included in the prompt before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many papal conclaves will start during 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a NATO or EU nation declare a national emergency due to AI before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• A Martian colony will exist before a Lunar one — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the United States have more than 1,000,000 households without power before the end of 2025 (starting April 30th)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Ukraine war end with Ukraine controlling nearly all Ukrainian territory INCLUDING Crimea? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the yield of true hemp increase over time? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will California set a new record high price for regular gas by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Government official gives Nathan pushback about Fielder Method in Rehearsal Season 2? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which vaccines will RFK end recommendations for? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will be true of Pokémon Legends Z-A? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which category will have the most successful challenges at BASH 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will silver prices be $50 + by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will North Korea kill 1,000+ people before 2026 with nuclear strikes? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Russia kill 1,000+ people before 2026 with nuclear strikes? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Perplexity worth more than OpenAI by January 1, 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• [Carlini questions] At least one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind will be functionally dead — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the first rocket launch from the UK's Sutherland spaceport be successful? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will China invade Taiwan by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a change of power in China by 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• "Blue" by Eiffel 65 will reach the top 50 on a major music chart due to a new remix or sample by December 31, 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will be the 'classic' episodes on the 80,000 Hours podcast from 2023? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the next pandemic be overall worse than covid-19 in absolute, global terms? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) be part of the German government by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Silence be the first sport climb confirmed 9c? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Joshua Block go to jail before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which men’s college basketball team will win the 2025 Players Era Festival? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many academic publishers will publicly state that their referral traffic from Google/Google Scholar has decreased? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a hung parliament following the next UK general election? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will gpt4 do video summarization? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will someone deadlift 505kg or more by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will BTC reach $1M before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Portland have fully self-driving taxis by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I still be in my degree by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Medicaid requires employment (work requirement) in 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Mr.Beast create/announce something like a #TeamSees to cure blindness around the world — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the next Archbishop of Canterbury be Female? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Logan Paul be arrested before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will this market get more than 100 traders? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Cannabis be legal in Germany at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Top Multi-SWE-bench score in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Is the OpenAI model spec the upcoming definition for next major API release? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Valve Deckard VR headset release date? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Veritasium make a youtube video about AI Alignment or Existential Risks in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Are the Mexican alien bodies real? (scientific journal, 2025) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What country will the new Pope visit first? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will we have a superhuman mathematician by the beginning of 2026 (as defined here: https://twitter.com/ChrSzegedy/status/1598341927828594688)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will an LLM do a task that the user hadn't requested in a notable way before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How much money will the LEV Foundation spend in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a federal judge order Google to sell off Chrome Browser before EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• EU triggers anti-coercion instrument against US before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Kazakhstan experience mass mobilization, for any reasons, before end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will phase 1 of LA Metro’s D line line open in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be more than 1,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will major gameplay of Pokemon Legends Z-A take place in the future? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• An AGI will surpass Nigel Richards in traditional Scrabble by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Manifold Markets Will No Longer Exist in 2025. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Evgeny Lebedev remain a peer in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the UK's FTSE 100 end 2025 above 9,000? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will hallucinations (made up facts) created by LLMs go below 1% on specific corpora before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By which dates will the "Fusaka" Ethereum hard fork take place? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• AutoGPT style agents will prove in the longer run the proper way to get automation of medium complexity tasks. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a vote confirmed for a united Ireland before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Bottom 50% of US income distribution's real incomes will grow over 2% annually on average from beginning of 2022 to end of 2025. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Polio make a comeback in the US in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will System of a Down release a new album in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Bitcoin over 100,000 in 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Chungin "Roy" Lee be charged with a federal crime before January 1st 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any FTXFF grantee be legally compelled to return funds due to FTX's bankruptcy? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Mr. Girl/Lav find their way back into Destiny’s orbit? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• before 2026, will Telegram have given any government access to private messages of its users? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 "Information Technology" sector exceed 30% by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a special prosecutor be appointed by a federal court to prosecute a member of the Trump administration in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will be in the Israeli government following the next elections? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI or Microsoft produce a comsumer hardware device built on ChatGPT before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will Barbie and Oppenheimer fuse into one super-movie? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How long will Yuki Tsunoda last in Red Bull before being replaced? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Conditional on no mitigating action, will anyone steal or vandalize our giant chess set in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Bank of England base rate reach 4% by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Top average (agent and edit) LiveSWEBench score by EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will kilmar abrego garcia step foot in the USA again by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What percentage of 2025 will be left when OpenAI announces GPT-5? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 New Jersey Republican gubernatorial nomination? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will GPDR stop all EU residents using some significant LLM products by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Biejat vs Zandberg vs Braun - 2025 Polish presidential election — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• In 2030, will more than 10 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ketamine in their lifetimes? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Alibaba $baba $5k by 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Another Google "Ultra" model in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• A Screen Actor's Guild supported TV Show or Movie will list an AI in its writing credits before the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Conditional on Tumblr implementing support for following from ActivityPub, will they inject ads into the feed by EoY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will William, Prince of Wales ever be crowned King of the United Kingdom? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Are animals necessary in circuses? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the EA Forum or LessWrong start using EigenKarma by 2025 (public experiments included)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the U.S. U-20 YMNT win any awards in the 2025 U-17 FIFA World Cup? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will someone pay their rent using Mana before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan before 2026, and if so, when? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will silksong release in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will be among the top 5 richest person in the world at the end of 2025? (According to Forbes) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Buggy do something during Elbaf Arc? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• 10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Fusaka HardFork happen in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 drop below $5,521.52 (its dip on March 13) in any of these months in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I have a research position at Anthropic (Research Engineer included) by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the U.S. launch a ground invasion in Yemen against the Houthis in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the government come after Manifold for gambling on the site before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will succeed Nicușor Dan as general mayor of Bucharest if he wins the 2025 Romanian presidential elections? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• [Add options] Which YouTube channels will Manifold do a video sponsorship for in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the tariffs be successful in bringing back manufacturing to the US ? (2025) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Starship conduct a manned launch before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Zelensky remain the President of Ukraine beyond 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Homesteady make it to 2026 in Alaska? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will surpass 4.5% for the year 2025. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will further research confirm the presence of DMS or DMDS on planet K2-18b by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Elon Musk charged with Wisconsin state law violation in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX be more valuable than Tesla by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How much RAM will the new Switch have? (in gigabytes) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who Abstracts next in the Amazing Digital Circus? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu] — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will "SPINNING PLATES OF MEANING ON A NEEDLE MADE OF LIGHT!" receive 10,000 listens in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• US state enacts online sports betting consumer protection by EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will be the next compound produced and tested by the ITP that will be shown to have a statistically significant effect on both median and 90th percentile lifespan? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 10 million USD in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• China's 2025 defense budget increases more than 7.5%? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• If x happens, will manifold hit another record low of daily traders in 2025? [Add Answers] — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will AI be able to outperform Elon Musk as CEO of Twitter before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will The UK recognize Palestine by EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Musk win his current (second) case against OpenAI or receive more than $100mn in settlement? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Slough Borough Council still be a unitary authority in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a Malcolm in the Middle revival before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• can i get hike in 2025(don't bet on it its for testing) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will MIRI run an end of 2025 fundraiser? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Trump administration issues price controls by end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Britain agree on a deal to give Mauritius the Chagos islands by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I pay Manifold over $100 this year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against New Jersey? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Trump deport people in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any type of cryptocurrency be outlawed? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Flamengo win a relevant title 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will X/Elon Musk achieve AGI by next year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which Countries will the US agree to trade deals with by EOY25? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Does Sam Trabucco get >=1 year sentence? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who leaves office first Trump or Putin (for any reason)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• SSA payments delayed by COBOL-Java migration by EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will falsely claim that Ukraine started the war in 2025? (Add answers) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a GiveWell report that a non-Openphil donor has given $100M in (Jan 22 $) in one financial year up to financial year 2030? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Zap Energy demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• If we buy a new car seat for our next child, will they cry less in the car? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Trump withdraw from NATO in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Andreessen Horowitz profit off of their investment in Flow (Adam Neumann)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• iPhone 17 base price exceeds $799? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• If Frontier Airlines offers transatlantic flights in 2025, will there be a GoWild!-style Pass for them? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Trump executive order limits drug prices by EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a Yesh Atid coalition lead Israel after next election — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• "Trump freezes NIH grants to Princeton in 2025?" — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• FDA legalizes magic mushrooms/psilocybin/etc. for clinical use by the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Neural Nets will have human-level situational awareness by the end of 2025. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What percent of Trump's 114,750,000 Truth Social stock shares will he still own at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Tony's weight lower than 90kg — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Mr Beast’s Youtube channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Behrens lab will solve the brain in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many states will ban fluoride in drinking water in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Does Sam Trabucco get >4 years sentence? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will France recognize Palestine by EOY2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump still be married by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many films will I see in the cinema this year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I be eligible to vote in the next Labour leadership election? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• A new religion will gain traction in the wake of AI by December 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• $5 Trillion company at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Days until tariffs roll back to less than 10% after the tax cut passes? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• test market please ignore — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Battle of 2025 Blockbusters: Superman or Jurassic World?” — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Both US political parties will seem less extreme by 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• In what year will 15 items on the CoolFold 100 Challenge have happened ? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which countries or groups will retaliate against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any submission exceed 90% for the Konwinski Prize? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Mutual defence clause of NATO triggered before 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• GPT-5 Score on BrowseComp? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Loki's Flashback begin in Chapter 1144? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Pierre Pollievre still be the leader of the CPC at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Kerbal Space Program 2 officially stop development in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a manned commercial space station in orbit at the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• If PredictIt has to shut down, will they let traders get their money out? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Noam Chomsky be alive to witness the development of AGI? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin hit $250,000 before the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Aaron Rodgers x Russell Wilson 2025 Free Agency Decisions — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will CEA announce insolvency before the end 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will Primitive Technology on Youtube create his next useful iron item? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What quarter and year will Silksong be released in? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will we know why the FBI raided the home of Xiaofeng Wang before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Conor McGregor be arrested before the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What month will Hollow Knight: Silksong release in? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the United States Steel Corporation (US Steel) be sold in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the Fantasy Beisbol fantasy league? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• GPT5 gets 1500 elo on lmarena.ai? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will happen by the end of 2025 under President Trump's tariff policies? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Moderates win Minneapolis city council majority in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Andreessen Horowitz still be active in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk publicly donate more than €100k euros to the German AfD party before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Secret Immaculate Constellation Pentagon program revelation causes detention time before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will I spend a significant amount of time on creating chances for Yudkowsky to get a prestigious prize in literature (or find someone who’ll do that)? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Nintendo Switch 2 include StreetPass (or a similar feature?) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• [Add options] TheAllMemeingEye love life prop bets 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will come first in the 2025 Portuguese General Election? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Tariffs on China by EOY? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Does Nishad Singh get >=1 years sentence? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Frontier Airlines offer transatlantic flights in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When dreamchaser launches, will it land on the runway succcessfully? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will an okay outcome occur for humanity? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which legendary 3rd game would Valve release first? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the 2026 UCI World Tour (men's) calendar feature the "Brugge - De Panne" race? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which company has best Computer Agent AI model end of 2025? (Computer Agent Arena Leaderboard) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be any large-scale protests about content generated by Deep Learning by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Manifold offers market recommendations in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will total US CO2 emissions in 2025 be lower than in 2024 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• The US and/or Iran will strike Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will "The Age of Disclosure" be publicly released? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a AI-first "pin" product sell more than 100,000 units by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• OpenAI updates custom GPTs by EOY2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• In 2025, will I think I should have paid attention to the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly spike? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the U.S. inflation rate exceed 5% at any point in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Takeshi Sendō win his Title Match against Ricardo Martínez? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will i knowingly eat or buy something that isn't vegan before eoy 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the German parliament reform the Schuldenbremse until 2026 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which manifold.markets user will have the most questions asked about them by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will an AI be able to repeatedly write rap songs that I think are good without human input in the lyrics before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• White House mentions Winnie the Pooh in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the tonnes of biomass burned in forest fires increase? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• S&P-500 EOY — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back. — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which candidate for Pope will Elon Musk endorse? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI have revenues of at least $5 billion (ARR) by the end of year 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US admit more than 2 million immigrants in any year before 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI release true multimodal image generation for GPT-4.5 before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will Starship flight 10 happen? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Louvre announce that they are cleaning the Mona Lisa in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will polish army officialy enter Ukraine by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Destiny talks to TracingWoodgrains by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will come out first, GTA6 or Silksong? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Carlos Ghosn run a car company again by 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which company has best Search AI model end of 2025? (Search Arena Leaderboard) — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which features on the Kerbal Space Program 2 roadmap will be released by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Mark — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will holders of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds recover 5 cents on the dollar or more? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any nation leave the EU by 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be self driving taxis in London before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX put their HLS lander on the Moon by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Pope Leo XIV openly criticize Trump in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What will the results of @Astatide42's first poll on the colour of a proton be? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will an exomoon be discovered by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will any Covid vaccine lose its FDA approval this year? [Kalshi] — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the EU officially weaken or invalidate U.S. intellectual property rights before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Geometry Dash update 2.21 release date? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Russia-Ukraine war conclude in a negotiated settlement? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Globo produce a telenovela about AI before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Waymo rider harmed by anti-Waymo protestor by EOY 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which media sources do manifold users trust? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Tulsi Gabbard convicted of perjury? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will this "new color" find a use in industry before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• OpenAI announces ChatGPT lifetime subscription before 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a half-trillionaire by the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• What cities in the US will Tetra visit in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk stop or step back from running DOGE before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Federal Reserve upper bound at least 5.00% on December 31? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Yuan at 8 dollars in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Lockheed Martins "Darkstar" Fly by 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman be killed by AI? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Google DeepMind hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will Pokémon Bank shut down? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the US obesity rate stop rising by 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Which places will Jet Lag: The Game Season 14 visit? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• CA cities failing their housing element is gonna be a colossal ($100s Billions) deal, in hindsight in 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• GPT-6 release by 2026? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• How many songs will LEXER listen to this year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Bay Bridge lights be back on by the end of the year? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Eliezer Yudkowsky or Nate Soares appear on the 80,000 Hours Podcast before 31 December 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Nathan Young asks Musk out? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Congress passes law against Trump's tariffs in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a European politician promote a shitcoin in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the last stage pension for mothers (Mütterrente) be implemented before the end of 2025 — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will tariffs in Q4 2025 be below what they were in Q4 2024? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Manifold ever stop misresolving their own markets? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will this market "Are aliens watching Earth?" be resolved in a way I consider meaningful and supported? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 AGAIN decrease by over 5% in one day in 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• MANCHESTER CITY ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• INTER MIAMI ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the G-Retriever model be adopted by at least 5 major AI products by end of 2025? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• BOTAFOGO ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• BOTAFOGO ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• PORTO VELHO ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• PORTO VELHO ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• CORINTHIANS ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• CORINTHIANS ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• REAL MADRID ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• MANCHESTER CITY ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• In 2025, will the pinned comment like/dislike ratio be >2 ? — closes 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC
• When will Apple release AirPods Pro 3? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• US citizenship applications suspended for 30+ consecutive days before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• I write 12 Substack articles (1000+ words) by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Outcome of Molly White's FEC complaint vs. Coinbase (campaign contributions) — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Claude and other base models support the Model Context Protocol (MCP) natively by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Luigi Mangione die before the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• How many followers will my twitch channel have at the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• First Mexican state to experience a U.S. drone strike in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Who will be the first NFL head coach to lose his job in the 2025 season? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Charles III remain the king for all of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Who is arrested first: Trump or Bolsonaro? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2026) — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• US tariffs on Chinese imports on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• When will Deltarune chapter 3 release? (UTC) — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla by December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• KULR Technology Group, Inc. reports positive net income in any quarter of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Major news media reports DOGE system hack or foreign intelligence infiltration by end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Nick Fuentes publicly comes out or is credibly exposed as gay/bisexual before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will an AI which achieves IMO gold medal before 2026 use MCTS during test-time? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will the 'big' treasure chest from There's Treasure Inside be announced as found before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• AMD RX 9070 XT price at the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Boeing 2025 Revenue exceeds $85 Billion — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Elena Ferrante's identity revealed as Domenico Starnone by end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• By 2026, will Openai commit to delaying model release if ARC Evals thinks it's dangerous? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Total attendance at Walt Disney World theme parks in 2025 exceeds 60 million guests — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Manifold offer loans to users throughout 2025 ? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Scotland allow assisted dying by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Polymarket legally accessible to US citizens before December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Mainstream media coverage of biblical extraterrestrial theories increases by January 1, 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will the video game Sanctuary release (on Steam) before 1st Jan 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Eric Adams switches party affiliation from Democrat before January 1, 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Which diagram resource URI pattern will become the MCP standard by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Communities" still be prominently featured in the main WhatsApp navigation bar? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Manifold Markets add a forum feature by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• I get a new job by December 31st, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will a standardized category theory language for ML models emerge by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will ASCII diagrams be replaced by interactive visualizations in MCP by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will another recreational expedition to the Titanic take place before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Pope Leo XIV give a p(doom) estimate in a public statement before January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• US eliminates daylight saving time by December 31st 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Meta, Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft invest in Conjecture before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Another OpenAI whistleblower dies of unnatural causes before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will at least one treasure chest from There's Treasure Inside be announced as found before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will I conclude, at the end of 2025, that this year has been better than 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Twitter be an open distributed system before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:01 UTC
• Percent limit offer volume / limit order volume if we implement limit offers? — closes 2026-01-01 00:19 UTC
• Will any of RFK JR's family members get sick from swimming in sewage tainted water? — closes 2026-01-01 00:21 UTC
• 🏅2025 Formula 1 Head-to-Head (H2H) Driver Markets (LIVE) — closes 2026-01-01 00:27 UTC
• How many views on my blog EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:36 UTC
• Will I get into MIT? — closes 2026-01-01 00:54 UTC
• What will happen first? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Will Barton Rhodes have a BIRTHDAY PARTY in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• for fiscal year 2025, Canadian NSERC grants to total to at least 10% of total US NSF grant budget?" — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Will Haven-1 launch in 2025 or earlier? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• 1+1=? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Will Oda add Jack Sparrow to One Piece? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Warren Buffett passes away before officially retiring? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Kingdom vs Trump preliminary injunction? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Will chapter 400 of the Berserk manga be published by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• I spend what portion of summer at home? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Who Will Be on Middlesex A Quiz Bowl Team 2025-2026 for the 1st Tournament of the MS Season? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• The Volkswagen ID. Buzz will surpass 5,000 sales in Q3 of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Will European hens be 95% cage-free by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• What will I get on USNCO nats when scores release? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 exceed 8.9 billion? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Which day of May will Grok 3.5 be released? — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Dr. Fauci arrested for crimes against humanity before December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 00:59 UTC
• Will I complete all my Anki reps through 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Will I create an open source project that gets 10+ stars by January 1st, 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Criminal charges filed for Sunset Fire by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• China's battery energy output exceeds 50% of its peak historical coal energy output in any month until December 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Bird flu added to the WHO's list of emergencies this year? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Supreme Court rules unanimously to uphold Federal Judge's block on Trump's use of Alien Enemies Act — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• 🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 120 Successful Launches In 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• How many steps will Claude Plays Pokemon's second run take to beat Erika and get the Rainbow Badge? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• What will Bitcoin's (BTC) price reach/peak at by the end of 2025? (Crypto) — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Will alien life be discovered by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Will any launch version of the Switch 2 feature an OLED screen? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• 🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 150 Successful Launches In 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• If H5N1 pandemic occurs by 2026, what will be the confirmed case fatality rate for humans in first 3 months? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• 🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 135 Successful Launches In 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Liz Cheney, Anthony Fauci, or AOC arrested before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Will SpaceX Achieve 100 Successful launches from Florida in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Will TNX-102 SL Receive FDA Approval for the Treatment of Fibromyalgia? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Delta Flight 4819's pilot confirmed to be a woman — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Will Destiny charged with a crime(s) related to recording without consent before 2025 ends? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Apple pays over $500m for an AI company by end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Will the SEC suit against Elon Musk result in financial penalty? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Will my friend Doodle get a girlfriend before GTA 6 Drops? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Criminal charges filed for Palisades Fire by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Major laboratory safety breach involving mirror life research reported before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• H-1B selection becomes wage-based rather than lottery-based by January 2027 — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• 🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 100 Successful Launches In 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Criminal charges filed for Eaton Fire by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• 🏛💸Capital Gains Tax Increase Before 2026? (USA) — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Delaware business entity registrations in 2025 lower than 2024 — closes 2026-01-01 01:00 UTC
• Who is behind Twitter user @qorrenqial1215? — closes 2026-01-01 01:06 UTC
• What will be true of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? — closes 2026-01-01 01:06 UTC
• Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 01:44 UTC
• Will Google acquire Replit by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:00 UTC
• Will the for-profit arm of OpenAI be shut down or otherwise separated from the non-profit arm before 01/01/2026? — closes 2026-01-01 02:30 UTC
• Will the Israel - Hamas war spread to another location in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:38 UTC
• Will Geraldo Alckmin be the President of Brazil by Dec 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:58 UTC
• On December 2025, will I be using two rationalist-endorsed drugs at least once a month? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Who will be appointed as a Supreme Court Justice in the USA at some point of their life? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Starlink valuation at the IPO — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Manifold pre-money valuation in the next funding round (in thousands of dollars) — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will NR or NMN supplementation by proven to promote longevity-related outcomes in healthy adults by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will a Supreme court justice came out as LGBT by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will most critics think AI writes good poetry by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• How many chief financial officers will Tesla have by 2025 year end? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• How many women <= 25 y.o. will manifold.love have as users at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• When will quiver.trade publicly release its first version of permissionless derivatives? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will artificial intelligence be part of a solution of the NEXT Millennium Problem? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will X require AI-operated accounts to be tagged as such before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX successfully land a crewed mission on Mars by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Where will Jim Curtin coach next? [Add your own responses] — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Apple's total net sales increase in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Inter Miami compete in Copa Libertadores by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will AiresAI achieve the SoTA model on benchmarks by the end of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Gate.io collapse before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• When will Jair Bolsonaro receive his passport back? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will piracy make a comeback by Dec 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will the alleged alien mummies from Peru be debunked before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Gwern Branwen, openly and under his real name, get employed in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Synopsys close the acquisition of ANSYS by 2025 year end? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will AoE IV have more active users on Steam than AoE II on 12/31/25? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• What will be true about the Ecosystemic Futures Podcast by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will psilocybin be legal to sell in San Francisco by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• When will OpenAI accept Worldcoin? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Lionel Messi play a competitive match for Inter Miami in Miami Freedom Park by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• When will quiver first release its non-custodial trading? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will a major financial news outlet write an editorial saying that deglobalization concerns were overblown by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will 2 more parties claim to have achieved net gains in fusion energy by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will incest promotion become the 1st thing people think about the Effective Autruism/Less Wrong complex by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will another Millennium Problem be resolved before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Who is the tennis GOAT? 🐐 🎾 — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Where will the 2025 ICPC World Finals be held? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• It's end of 2025, a global AI moratorium is in effect, Eliezer Yudkowsky endorses it. What were its decisive causes? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• When will Instituto Butantã's Dengue vaccine be approved by Anvisa? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• On the upcoming hostage deal... — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Cristina Kirchner be imprisoned until the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will the President of USA publicly address Randy Anderson's alien objects allegations before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will the 2023 Chess World Champion be the highest rated player at any point before the 2025 Chess World Championship match? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Which science fiction technology or phenomenon will become reality in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• When will the first reputable AI-lab go public via a SPAC? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will the Brazilian Real surpass 7 BRL/USD at any point in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will the average interest in Vyper programming language be at least 50% that of Solidity over 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin activate a new soft-fork before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• Which country will be selected as "Country of the Year" by The Economist in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 02:59 UTC
• [Subsidized] Will Stankov and Lee’s 2020 paper on Kvashchev’s Experiment replicate by the end of 2025? N/A if no attempt — closes 2026-01-01 03:00 UTC
• Which low tiers will appear in the 2025 Super Smash Bros Melee year-end top 100 player rankings? — closes 2026-01-01 03:03 UTC
• Which Melee characters will be used to win a major during 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 03:03 UTC
• What will be Blackbeard's 3rd devil fruit type? — closes 2026-01-01 03:10 UTC
• When and where will the next America’s cup (sailing) be held (if announced in 2025) — closes 2026-01-01 03:10 UTC
• Will there be another major bridge collapse in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 03:35 UTC
• When will the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 be approved by the FDA? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• When will it first be possible to rent an autonomous vehicle to drive between cities in North America without a license? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Which social media platforms will implement proof-of-humanity measures before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• When will the Brazilian National Data Protection Authority (ANPD) publish its first dataset on dados.gov.br? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• When will Worldcoin's monthly payout exceed Brazil's minimum wage? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the existence of a U.S. government program named "Immaculate Constellation" be confirmed by FOIA before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• When will I, the creator of this market, personally purchase a humanoid robot for under $20,000 USD? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• When will it be proved that consciousness is non-local? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will any U.S. university lose federal funding due to "illegal protests" before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will X ever rebrand back to Twitter and bring back the bird logo by Jan. 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• When will Worldcoin orbs become operational in Porto Velho, Brazil? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will there be a referendum of Worldcoin-verified voters about a global ban on frontier AI/AGI development before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Trump pardon crimes related to deceiving the public about UFO's before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• This market resolves yes , except if AGI cause the collapse of civilization before the end of 2025. — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• When will the U.S. government confirm that the Roswell incident was an actual UFO crash? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will 10% of individuals rely on AI for their clothing choices by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Which country will have a coup d'état during 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Vivek Ramaswamy join the US Cabinet by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• When will I have my first robot haircut? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Manifold Markets be blocked in Brazil before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• When will Anthropic release a Deep Research tool? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will skywatcher.ai (an UFO summoning company) be considered legitimate at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Eduardo Bolsonaro be allowed to overstay his Visa? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will AI substitute journalists in digital media in USA, Europe or Latin America until the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will there be an AI rights protest in the US with more than 1000 protesters before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Mauro Cid lose the benefits of his delação premiada (plea bargain) before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Cemu emulator have an Android version by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Russia 🇷🇺 Be the number one world war power in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:00 UTC
• Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:03 UTC
• Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:03 UTC
• Did DOGE give passwords to Russian hackers? — closes 2026-01-01 04:05 UTC
• Northwestern antisemetic graffiti perpetrator a Zionist? — closes 2026-01-01 04:05 UTC
• Oppositional Position Market 3 — closes 2026-01-01 04:16 UTC
• Oppositional Position Market 5 — closes 2026-01-01 04:17 UTC
• Oppositional Position Market 7 — closes 2026-01-01 04:17 UTC
• Oppositional Position Market 9 — closes 2026-01-01 04:17 UTC
• Oppositional Position Market 4 — closes 2026-01-01 04:17 UTC
• Oppositional Position Market 10 — closes 2026-01-01 04:17 UTC
• Oppositional Position Market 8 — closes 2026-01-01 04:17 UTC
• Oppositional Position Market 6 — closes 2026-01-01 04:17 UTC
• As Sudan defeat against Rapid Defense Force in 2025, what will led to which scenario? — closes 2026-01-01 04:33 UTC
• Conditional on a Mistborn movie, will Henry Cavill have a role in it? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be an attempted physical assault on anyone working for DOGE? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Discord sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the best AI model according to the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard be using Mixture-of-Depths, at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will more than one MF DOOM song be played during the MCU film DOOMSDAY? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Alan Greenspan pass away before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a Succession movie? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I be alive at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a bill to eliminate or defund NPR make it to the President's desk by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the worst Top Apple score be 18 or less on AppleRankings.com at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of these bands will release a new studio album in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 😇Who will go to Heaven by EOY 2025 according to Manifold? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How much USD worth of mana will be sold on Dec 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jensen Huang be one of the three richest people in the world at any point before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Luffy find the One Piece in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the MLB Rookie of the Year for the American League in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who Will Luffy End Up With Romantically? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will JEPA models become mainstream by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025, will Google still display "Gulf of America" when "gulf of mexico" is searched? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Meta Hypernova glasses be available to order by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Nate Silver join Bluesky before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Bitcoin reaches $120k before the end of 2025, will it reach $120k again in 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, be found alive? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Pxie and Destiny settle their lawsuit by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel still have troops in the Gaza Strip at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone throw a pitch 106 mph or faster during a MLB game by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Eric Adams complete his current term in office as NYC Mayor? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will it be possible to download a script to scrape all of a Twitter users favorited items by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the New York Times win a case against OpenAI/Microsoft before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the 11foot8+8 bridge claim three or more victims in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If AI becomes economically dominant will we see Universal Basic Income (UBI) become a reality shortly thereafter? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What sovereign state will the West Bank first be part of? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be another Manifest conference held in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be DOGE administrator? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will evidence come out showing amouranth had foreknowledge of the robbery against her by eoy 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will HKU5-CoV-2 reach 100 confirmed human cases in the US by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel topple the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump order the US military to crush protesters? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce get engaged before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• JD Vance Meme Futures Index (#1 Best of 2025) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Victor Taelin’s new $10K bounty for AI reasoning be claimed by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Supreme Court reaffirm the ruling that generative AI cannot be awarded copyright by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tumblr support following external ActivityPub accounts by EoY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• High Class or Low Class? - Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "High Class" in 2025? (add answers) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the United States engage in a war with another country by January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy Booster in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which company will be the fourth to reach $3T valuation? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of these titles will Ron Paul become “_____ of”, w/r/t the Federal Reserve? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• October 16th will obviously be the biggest day in AI this year — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kamala Harris visit Israel by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kamala Harris be the next Supreme Court nominee? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Did Israel execute unarmed Gazans on December 19th for no good reason? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google create a new internally-developed smartphone model and sell it widely at some point in the year 2025 or 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold consider the 2020 election “free and fair” at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Congress pass legislation creating a regulatory framework for stablecoins by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• WIll Brian Chau (psychosort) vote conservative for the 2025 canadian federal election — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Was the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, a resident of the state of Georgia? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many people voted for the Gleeks in the 2024 Presidential Election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many open Polymarket markets about AI at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I get a cast recording of the Rocket Boys musical by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a state in the USA ban Uber And/or Lyft outright for all counties and cities by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump make any successful recess appointments to his cabinet in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tom Brady play in an NFL game again before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• rawr — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an op-ed “translated from” an animal (e.g. a Whale) be published in any major American newspaper by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kaivu, Atticus and I's current project get accepted to ICML 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the market "Will I see today?" get resolved to NO? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many of the 50 celebrities on DeathList 2025 will pass away? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold hire me in some capacity (contract, part-time, full-time) before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Peter Griffin in City Escape break 5M viewers by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Sabo or Dragon fight Akainu? (With or without Luffy) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier occupy a position of power in the new Haiti government before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will Xiaohongshu limit overseas users — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the highest rated player in NJ Super Smash Bros Melee power rankings for the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Is Fredi9999 Frédéric Arnault? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Did Luigi Mangione substantially leverage LLMs to plan the killing of UHC CEO Brian Thompson? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will you be able to buy 30 shares of Nvidia NVDA for one Ethereum ETH at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold raise a community round in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What LLM API will work unmodified until the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will MicroStrategy file for bankruptcy in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk become the CEO of another fortune 500 company before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Germany pass a law introducing conscription for 18 year olds by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which popular websites will be conquered by the bots by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Carlos Alcaraz win at least one Grand Slam in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Shanks and Luffy meet again in person before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will Trump impose tariffs on Panama? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the NYC Rat Index be 65 or higher at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What percentage of Senators will vote to confirm these nominees? [See below on how this market resolves] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Fadzai Madzingira no longer be employed by Twitch's Trust and Safety team by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Trump wins will Laura Loomer be given a position in the White House or federal government by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• ⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2025? (5 DONE) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will San Diego FC make the playoffs in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will Manifest 2025 take place? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Hamas execute an Israeli hostage and release video of the killing. — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will win the Skibidi wars? 👨🏻🚽 ⚔️ 📺📹 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Prince William be crowned King by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will 'The Day the Clown Cried' be screened by the Library of Congress before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Wojciech Zaremba still be working at OpenAI at EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google Maps display "Gulf of the International Proletariat" in place of "Gulf of Mexico" before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israeli strikes kill any Irish peacekeepers in Lebanon by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Putin's former defense minister Sergei Shoigu be alive at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which nations will take in Palestinian refugees? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many times will SpaceX launch Starship in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will YouTube begin restricting uploads by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump ban lab-grown (cultured) meat before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Amazon ship to Quebec users at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump leave the United States in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Cost of the next Valve VR headset (USD) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I return to Twitter for at least three consecutive days in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kearm (@Nottlespike) buy a SuperMicro (SMCI) rack for his GPUs by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump die before Joe Biden? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Melania’s hat will become a trend — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump issue an EO or get congress to pass laws repealing Wheelchair Ramps requirements by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Dijak be back in the WWE before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the NYC Rat Index be 65 or higher at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What percentage of school-age Americans (K-12) will be reported as having been homeschooled in the spring of 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which Benchmarks will OpenAI show results from GPT-5 on, when it is announced? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• will fuh's 100k steps market be known to have been faked, by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I make IPHO 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 4th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Had the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, ever spoken to him personally prior to the shooting? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone sell one of the rare 14k gold Kanohi Hau Bionicle Masks in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many victims will the 11foot8+8 bridge claim in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I think that a model or service I try is good enough to write my blog from my notes before the end of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🤢Will I throw up / vomit at some point in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Do the Gorosei have Devil Fruit Powers? Or are they something else? OP Ch 1111+ — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many Gazans will starve to death by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 New Jersey state gubernatorial election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Dollar still be the most prominent currency by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Los Angeles have the highest Champ score on Champs or Chumps at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk testify before Congress in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Amazon finalize a sale of Twitch by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Is America on the brink of a Christian revival? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which blasts from the past will recur by the end of 2025? [add answers] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will ACX Grants 2025 disburse more than $1.5mm? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be considered true about the motivations behind the cybertruck/Trump tower fireworks explosion? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• In what month will I reach 100,000 traders? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any xkcd comic published in 2025 reference xkcd's 20th anniversary? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Prong.Studio still be operational AND selling Superslabs at EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which one is the most enjoyable prediction market? (2025) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman be CEO of Microsoft by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• GPT-5: >150k token context window — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I be happier in 2025 than 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Drake and Kendrick settle their beef and/or reconcile publicly before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bluesky have 36 million or more users at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Science retract the paper on Wuhan wet market COVID origins (Worobey et al. 2022) by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AI Impacts publish another Expert Survey on Progress in AI by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Brazilian men’s national team guarantee their spot for the 2026 FIFA World Cup before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many orbital launch attempts will we see in 2025 around the world? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will VLONEPREDATOR still be posting "Black and Chinese" pictures of people on Twitter at EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will The NASDAQ Close above 20,000 on December 31st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kevin Frans talk to anyone from Ken Stanley/Jeff Clune's team (or behind POET paper) in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Z-Library admins be extradited to the United States by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the United States legalize commercial supersonic flight over land before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk substantially divest from any of his companies? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Yoyo Yuan spend more than 5 days in Taiwan in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2025 be 4% or higher? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the MIT Kevin Kwok (@antimatter15) have a birthday party in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be a citizen of the USA at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will JD Vance be charged with a crime by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will psilocybin be federally descheduled from a Schedule 1 illegal drug in the USA before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will women make up at least 35% of Fortune 500 company board members in 2024-2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI have a new name by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Sean 'Diddy' Combs be found deceased under suspicious circumstances by December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Binance be the largest crypto exchange market at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Chelsea Voss have a birthday party in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an AI-designed drug get FDA approval by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there exist open-source text-to-game AI models that can create a game like Halo 3 just by prompting by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a Lego set crossover with Magic the Gathering by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Destiny be engaged by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will 60% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a Beyond the Standard Model Particle be discovered by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will VGK (European Stock ETF) outperform VOO (US S&P 500 Stock ETF) in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Whatifalthist have an arrest record by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the 16th Doctor Who be Black? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach 100,000? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will my Pokemon AI win its Nat Dex Monotype Gauntlet? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas War? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any of my markets remain closed for more than 24 hours in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which country will grant Sheikh Hasina extended asylum by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will China test a nuclear weapon before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Domenic Cummings be reported by any online media source to interact with JD Vance by EOY2025? (EHC) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many books will I read in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel annex a part of the West Bank by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Trump wins the election, will Vivek Ramaswamy be given a government position (cabinet or otherwise) by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Lebanon officially abandon the Lebanese Pound and adopt the US Dollar as their national currency by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Annette Toutonghi get confirmed to be part of the voice cast for Hazbin Hotel and Helluva Boss? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifund give out another loan of size > 100kUSD to @MarcusAbramovitch before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will online LGBTQ+ content be censored in the US before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 😈Who will go to Hell by EOY 2025 according to Manifold? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Conor McGregor get 30% or more of the vote in the 2025 Ireland presidential election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mahmoud Khalil be deported from the US or leave it due to harassment by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• New Pandemic This Year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Deshaun Watson ever play in another NFL game? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Was the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, diagnosed with any mental illnesses prior to the shooting? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How will NASA resolve the Orion heat shield issue? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a Davy Back fight during Elbaf arc? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kernel expand into at least two other cities by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will diarrheal diseases be among the top 5 causes of death in children under five years old in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many astronauts of each nationality will be in space at the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the first AI chatbot powered ETF - Intelligent Livermore ETF (LIVR) - outperform the S&P 500? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Navy commission a new battleship by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Trump dies peacefully in his sleep in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the next rate change by the Fed be an interest rate increase? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will it be revealed that Meta has indeed been using the phone mic to generate more targeted ads by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Dr. Ally Louks and @Aella have a discussion about smell in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of Project 2025's plans come to fruition? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, be ordered to be broken up in the USA by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the most expensive item tracked by Keyitem.club still be Mickey Mantle card for $12.6M at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Talk / Hawk Tuah podcast last 100 episodes or more? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will KDE Plasma 6 be available in Debian 13 (stable)? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be Blue? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mr Beast have a video with 1 billion views by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Albania join the EU by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Canadians with gender-neutral passports be treated equally when travelling to the USA in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What military secrets will be leaked this year on the War Thunder gaming forums? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the USA Gold Card launch in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an all-Russian (no imported components) jet airplane enter operational service in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 👍👎 is usa cooked [market index] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will xAI release grok 3 Thinking (NOT "Beta")? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a erage earth temperature increase by more than 2 % by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will happen to Sora OpenAi by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a member of US congress physically attack another member of congress before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple announce a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Dick Van Dyke, Mel Brooks, David Attenborough or Gene Shalit live the longest? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mark Hamill appear in the Netflix One Piece adaptation before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a company by @barak raise 2mil before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple introduce a new AirTag with better tracking capabilities in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk back out of fight against Mark Zuckerberg because his mom told him not to do it? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will Dream Chaser go to space? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Luigi Mangione plead extreme emotional disturbance or not guilty by reason of mental illness? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will REN 2.0 launch before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the International Space Station be decommissioned by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Twitter / x hide the number of posts an account has made by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will The Nature Conservancy set up a fourth Global Debt Conversion by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Are UFOs a coverup for unprecedented fraud? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many days will it take for GPT-4.5's API price to at least halve? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon still be following Noahpinion at the end of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the EU push back their compliance date on Deforestation-Free Commodities? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a Small Language Model be cleared for clinical use by the FDA before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Chainsmokers actually perform at the Edge of Space in 2025 as claimed in 2022? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a new youngest Chess grandmaster before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be a Land card? (non-Basic) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Metagame Conference take place September 12-14, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Eric Adams resign as Mayor of New York City before his term is over? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be 40 inches of rain in Central Park this year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Should I switch majors to Mechanical Engineering from CompSci? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Dan Dascalescu be happier in 2025 than 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 New York City (NYC) mayoral election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone from sundai.club get a Nvidia's Project Digits desktop AI supercomputer by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Church of Scientology be owners of the Jim Henson Company Lot by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of these twelve countries will have at least one known nuclear weapon in their possession at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will vibe coding be a finalist in the 2025 Oxford word of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Congress members be banned from trading stocks before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will chatbots/AI be powerful enough to make me unsad by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will The Dow Close above 45,000 on December 31st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman give testimony to either chamber of Congress in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any of Elon Musk's companies be charged with fraud by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Turkey be a democracy by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Grand Theft Auto 6 break both 11M units sold and $800M sales in one day, the records that GTA5 set on release? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel break ground on a settlement in Gaza by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What is the next major competitive sport where AI beat top human player — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Quora questions be auto-answered by a more sophisticated bot (at level of GPT3.5 or higher) by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I believe to have successfully made a significant positive change on myself by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for OpenAI OR Humane in any role before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Nick Rekieta spend 30 or more days in jail before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Ethereum (ETH) reach $5,000 before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Bridges podcast reach 100 episodes? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in the state of Pennsylvania by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many Modern Horizons 3 cards will be banned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of the following users will stay active on manifold until EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be Black? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a National Abortion Ban Be Enacted in the US Before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel attempt to free any living hostages in Gaza through a military operation before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will my employer be hit with a major ransomware attack again by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will Elon, Tulsi, Vivek and RFK all get positions in the federal government by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will 1-month exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) of ethereum by higher at EOY2025 than EOY2024? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the average SAT scores of The Knowledge Society (TKS) students be higher in 2025 than in 2020? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the USA reopen an embassy in Syria before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Senate vote down any of Trump's cabinet picks in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Laura Loomer be indicted or subpoenaed by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone make a video generator < 3B parameters as good as Sora by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google Pay be discontinued by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be 1000 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Djokovic announce retirement in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple have a higher market cap than Microsoft at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will another state besides Louisiana require the Ten Commandment in public school classrooms by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I have 10 new posts on my website by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold add a Timeline-like question type by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will @hipcityreg join Founders Fund before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Arlong be seen again in the One Piece manga before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a new record setting bounty announced in One Piece by the end of 2025? (5.5648M Berries) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Martin Shkreli be convicted of a new crime by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Palisades Nuclear Generating Station produce power again before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Grok 4 release before Chat GPT 5? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Moistcritikal / penguinz0 's lawsuit against the US Immigration Dept result in overturning their initial rulings? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• X (Twitter) Premium will offer a VPN natively or via partnership by 2026. — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Major physics discovery thanks to AI by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who Will Win the Chess World Cup 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold allow buying in Mana with crypto payment before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be an election to replace Hamas in Gaza by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Can anyone beat me in the Pokemon Monotype Gauntlet? [Rock vs Fire round] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be the PyTorch of AI engineering at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a state in the USA ban Airbnb outright for all residences by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for Anthropic OR OpenAI in any role before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tumblr support following from ActivityPub accounts by EoY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be an AI "lost manuscript" hoax by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Dick Cheney live to see a new largest Prime number? (Last one - Oct 21 2024) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Cytokinetics agree to be acquired by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Is the percentage of shots missed from percentage of shots not taken defined? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Was the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, on antidepressants within a year of the shooting? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bryan Johnson and Elon Musk talk in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Nobel Prize by 2026 if LK-99 superconductor replicates? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a film adaptation of "Remarkably Bright Creatures" by Shelby Van Pelt be released to theaters by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 📌5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Do you think this poll will reach 500 responses by EOY 2025? (8.8% DONE) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will one bitcoin be worth more than $200k at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Trump appeals the verdict ordering him to pay $83.3 million in defamation damages to E.Jean Carroll, will he win? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will we see Ads in an OpenAI product served by Reddit before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a Fatwa issued by a middle eastern country in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which figures/organizations will condemn Trump for lies told about the 2024 election results, after the election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• In 2025, will a Magic: The Gathering card be banned within 2 weeks of becoming legal in a format? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who or what will President Trump go after before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Humane AI pin still be able to be purchased at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tesla have driverless ride-hailing in the US by end of year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will TSLA reach $750 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2025? [ADD ANSWERS] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump use an executive order to restrict funding for schools that mandate any vaccine OTHER THAN COVID in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 📜Which of the Ten Biblical Plagues of Egypt will strike New York City in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will NYC Subway ridership be 70% of pre-pandemic levels or higher at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Charles cease to be King of the UK by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the DOGE uncover a Government funded sexual scandal this year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Computer-use AI agent gets scammed / falls victim to a phishing attack, in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will two billionaires have a publicized physical fight in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump Pardon Snowden by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will S&box (Sandbox) release before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will manifold go defunct? (Add answer) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any other country beside the USA officially update it's maps to also say Gulf of America by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Lex Fridman interview Ken Griffin by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Andrew Wilson takes an IQ test publicly will he get 110 or higher? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I learn a substantial amount of Spanish by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Texas ban "non-human behavior" in schools in the 89th legislative session? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the best Top Apple score be 98 or more on AppleRankings.com at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Time's 2025 Person of the Year be one person? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will win an MVP first? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Richard Hanania and David Shor become friends in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will over 1 million non-citizens be deported by the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Monster Hunter Wilds be cross platform? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Now that R/GA is an independent agency, will it embark on a new era of creativity and awards? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Shanghai be nuked in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will China's GDP growth be in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will the next Pokemon games be named after? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 📆What will happen in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold create a randomized market closing time option? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an English release of Fate/hollow ataraxia be announced before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 📜Which of the Ten Biblical Plagues of Egypt will strike New York City in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will NYC Subway ridership be 70% of pre-pandemic levels or higher at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which company will be worth more at the end of 2025: OpenAI or SpaceX? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manuel M (@mm03993418) perform ELISA on Minicircle data w/avg increase in follistatin levels > 7 ng/mL by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Adelyn Moore be taken to Japan or Paris before the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Should I switch majors to Mechanical Engineering from CompSci? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Trump wins the election, will he appoint Elon Musk to a federal government position by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will sydney mclaughlin get into a public controversy over statements about LGBT people by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 😇Who will go to Heaven by EOY 2025 according to Manifold? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Brandon Sanderson's 'secret project' release in 2025 as expected? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Computer-use AI agent gets scammed / falls victim to a phishing attack, in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Cost of the next Valve VR headset (USD) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a movie with a budget >$500M be released by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which company or organization will end up owning Chrome? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will 1000 or more Hajj pilgrims journeying to Mecca die due to heat in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Arlong be seen again in the One Piece manga before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I learn a substantial amount of Spanish by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Massachusetts legalize at least some types of fireworks by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will all US states be forced to allow the sale of pork from crated pigs, in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an all-Russian (no imported components) jet airplane enter operational service in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Biden or Trump die before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Trump wins in 2024, which colleges will the US automatically provide green cards to graduates of, by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Possessioner get an English translation before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025, there will be an Apple Watch that has a glucose sensor — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the word "based" be less right-leaning at the end of 2025 than it is today? (based on google trends) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will They are Billions 2 be announced before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold give prominent community members equity in Manifold by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US provide peacekeeping forces for post-war Gaza? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will over 1 million non-citizens be deported by the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who has done more to fight the Taliban? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will China's GDP growth be in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a new Most Liked YouTube video by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Eric Adams resign as Mayor of New York City before his term is over? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Antonio Brown score an NFL touchdown before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin (BTC) reach $120k before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Robinhood Gold cost more than $5/month before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple sell AirPods with EEG functionality in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the FTC force OpenAI to delete any mainline GPT models by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will it be publicly revealed that a member of Hololive has been or is currently married before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Amazon ship to Quebec users at the end of 2027? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the NYC subway still report an On-time Performance of >=85% at the end of 2025? (overall 12-month average) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Conor McGregor get 5% or more of the vote in the 2025 Ireland presidential election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will Medifast (NYSE:MED) closing stock price be at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump "buy" Greenland multi-market? 🤝💚🧊 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What time will it be in America in 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel annex any part of Gaza by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US be at war with Iran before the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a Succession movie? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis Ricon successfully spread a case of COVID to someone else by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will street protests against Trump's agenda result in at least one death in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Discord sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a western country put sanctions on Israel by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• China-Taiwan military clash when? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the "unpublished dissertations" potentially relevant to COVID origins be made public by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• AI beats me in PvP Factorio during December 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• rawr — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🌽Which of these foods will have the highest YoY% change at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Are the Gorosei immortal? (like Imu) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Japan successfully beam solar power from space by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel annex a part of the West Bank by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will xAI release grok 3 Thinking (NOT "Beta")? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I still be a Partner on Manifold at EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Do you support US Federal funding for PEPFAR? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will these people defeat Sara in arm wrestling? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Is OpenAI's water supply lower-pollution than Anthropic's water supply? [by EOY 2025?] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Justin Trudeau be leader of the opposition after the next Canadian election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Chelsea Voss have a birthday party in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel annex part of Palestine by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Hasan and H3H3 Ethan rebuild their bridge before an Israel Palestine ceasefire happens? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there exist open-source text-to-game AI models that can create a game like Halo 3 just by prompting by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel topple the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will Opensea's cryptocurrency will be tradable? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Humane AI pin still be able to be purchased at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What percent of days will I hit my exercise goal in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an AI release a Kanye album? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an open-source text-to-music LLM model be able to create an entire album as convincing as a human by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the next FDA Administrator? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will English Wikipedia reach 7M articles before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will we learn that a person who has been deported to El Salvador by March 17th was an American citizen? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many FBI informants will be shown to have been involved in the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold create a randomized market closing time option? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Nintendo stop deadnaming Birdetta by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jacob Rintamaki have raised more money than Andrew Gao by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the MIT Kevin Kwok (@antimatter15) have a birthday party in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Legally Blonde 3 release before Grok 3? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a vaccine for Lyme disease be available to the US public by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any other country beside the USA officially update it's maps to also say Gulf of America by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will SNL make a sketch involving any big AI lab before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will DeepSeek release R2? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple acquire Rivian by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the 'average travel time to work' for the USA be Less than 26 minutes according to EOY 2025 data? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bluesky have 36 million or more users at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a bill to eliminate or defund NPR make it to the President's desk by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will two billionaires have a publicized physical fight in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of these bands will release a new studio album in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will REN 2.0 launch before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk lose his security clearance by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Olivia Rodrigo be cast in a major movie (not just soundtrack) by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will NYC have congestion pricing at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Oprah and Stedman get married officially by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Destiny stream on Twitch again before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which company has best Text-to-Video AI model end of 2025? (Artificial Analysis Leaderboard) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Ryan Routh request to represent himself in court? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Manifold toxicity conditional market - EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel still have troops in the Gaza Strip at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the next Agent 007 (after "No Time To Die") be black? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Did Lee Harvey Oswald kill John F Kennedy? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Columbia student who was ordered detained by the White House be deported by the end of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump visit Israel by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Are the “Patriot Front” marchers >20% feds? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce get married? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• X (Twitter) Premium will offer a VPN natively or via partnership by 2026. — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kamala Harris visit India by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Amazon or Alphabet have a greater market cap at the end of 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a successful medical malpractice suit by end of 2025 for NOT using AI for diagnosis or treatment — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will MethaneSAT discover a major methane leak in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Should I read the Aeneid? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jimmy Carter be skeletonized within a year after his death — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Cytokinetics agree to be acquired by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a plane crash with ≥100 victims in Russia in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the WWE have their first openly transgender active wrestler by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Did DeepSeek violate OpenAI's terms of service by using OpenAI model outputs for distillation in 2024 or January 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will war on the Christmas be won in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the ratio of inference runs to training runs on GPT5 decrease from the ratio on GPT4? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX successfully catch the Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Ryan Routh live until the day he is sentenced? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of these titles will Ron Paul become “_____ of”, w/r/t the Federal Reserve? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will LoveFrom + OpenAI ship a consumer product in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• who's gonna go vegan first? (my twin vs me) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a new record setting bounty announced in One Piece by the end of 2025? (5.5648M Berries) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold allow buying in Mana with crypto payment before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will it be possible to download a script to scrape all of a Twitter users favorited items by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Major blunder in a physics paper attributed to AI by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Safari remain the 2nd most popular browser by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a new record breaking most expensive coin by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Youtube TV be discontinued by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the GC Ultimate Kickstarter reach its goal and ship their first batch of preorder units by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a crochet machine exist before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will the first murder of a civilian happen in a US city by a robot or AI device where an operator is not nearby — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which users will attend a Manifest in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Armenia apply for EU membership by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifund give out another loan of size > 1mil USD to another person/organization before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• any DOGE boy turns on Elon or Trump by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will at least N Impulse Lab Induction Cooktops have been sold by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will computer-using AI agents play Balatro better than me by eoy 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What Youtube channel will have the most subscribers by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Michael Retchin raise more than $5 million by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple have a higher market cap than Microsoft at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a National Abortion Ban Be Enacted in the US Before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Twitter IPO in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone get worldsim/Claude 3/gpt4 to generate convincing risque literotica by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman give testimony to either chamber of Congress in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Are UFOs a coverup for unprecedented fraud? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Sriram Krishnan be appointed and remain senior policy advisor in the Trump admin through 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel annex a part of Gaza by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Former NYPD Police Commissioner Edward Caban be charged with a crime by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone create an "unauthorized" culture of Lantern Bioworks strain BCS3-L1 from someone else's mouth before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Legally Blonde 3 release before Mamma Mia 3? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a new element be discovered before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• High Class or Low Class? - Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "High Class" in 2025? (add answers) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump order the US military to crush protesters? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Did you take your COVID booster within the past year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a member of United States senate die in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What sovereign state will the West Bank first be part of? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a film adaptation of "Remarkably Bright Creatures" by Shelby Van Pelt be released to theaters by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Vivek Ramaswamy become president of the United States in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Matt Kaeberlein Dog Aging Project maintain 2024+2025 funding at *at least* >70% of 2022+2023 levels of funding? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Sabo or Dragon fight Akainu? (With or without Luffy) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier occupy a position of power in the new Haiti government before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Congress pass legislation creating a regulatory framework for stablecoins by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Switzerland increase the amount of people allowed in their army to 150,000 or more by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Supreme Court reaffirm the ruling that generative AI cannot be awarded copyright by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• LeBron James - How many points will he score in the NBA before his retirement? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will @OnePieceExplained reach 20K subscribers on YouTube by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which country will grant Sheikh Hasina extended asylum by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who would you prefer to reach AGI first? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a legitimate movie version of the Galileo musical by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Conor McGregor get 10% or more of the vote in the 2025 Ireland presidential election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Asmongold go on Joe Rogan by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a high-ranking Trump Administration official (incl Musk) describe the US as being in an "axis" with Russia in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be 50 or more CosMc locations (new McDonald's spinoff restaurant) by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How much USD worth of mana will be sold on Dec 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will it become possible to use transformer action AIs to DDOS anyone you want by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of the following people, if nominated, will be confirmed by the Senate? [Add Answers] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will anyone train a TokenFormer model at scale before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Canadians with gender-neutral passports be treated equally when travelling to the USA in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will The Dow Close above 45,000 on December 31st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will E Jean Carroll win another defamation case against Donald Trump by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Amazon ship to Quebec users at the end of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the first AI chatbot powered ETF - Intelligent Livermore ETF (LIVR) - outperform the S&P 500? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 will the most used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be used in 50% or more of decks? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold add a Timeline-like question type by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Alexine Le Port find a boyfriend/partner by 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mikhail (Misha) V. Blagosklonny [rapamycin guy w/cancer] make it through 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mark Meadows have a position in Trump 47’s White House by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be more than 20,000 Subway stores at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which companies will announce layoffs in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy Booster in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold have a formally designated Chief Product Officer by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Coffee cost more than Tea at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What price will Twitter debt fall to (expressed as cents/per dollar) and go out at, so banks can get it off their books? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tumblr support following external ActivityPub accounts by EoY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be considered true about the motivations behind the cybertruck/Trump tower fireworks explosion? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What % will the Project 2025 tracker be at in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Yamato be there when Luffy finds the One Piece? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will 'The Day the Clown Cried' be screened by the Library of Congress before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 4th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Adderall shortage ends in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will SweeTango Apple still be the best apple on AppleRankings.com at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will SLS survive 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a Boeing 777-9 plane be delivered and in service by the end of 2025? (Boeing's stated target date) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which city will Tetraspace live in at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a major political party or politician advocate for voter registration to include captcha by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Amtrak have at least 39 routes on Dec 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AI/chatgpt technology be good enough to autoconvert matlab code to runnable python code by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Microsoft acquire Valve / Steam by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tom Brady play in an NFL game again before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Andrew Wilson takes an IQ test publicly will he get 100 or higher? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will JEPA models become mainstream by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Core CPI be above 5% YOY at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a peacekeeping force of at least 10,000 non-Ukrainian European soldiers be stationed in Ukraine by years' end? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AI create a decent remix of AOE2+Medieval Total War 2 music by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Adult Swim release Junji Ito's new anime (Uzumaki) by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will online LGBTQ+ content be censored in the US before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Trump is convicted in any federal case, will the next president pardon him or commute his sentence? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will food prices rise by 15% or more after mass deportations? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump meet with Kim Jong-Un in person by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Convincing deepfakes of Jose Luis Ricon dancing GANGAM STYLE by EOY 2025 (post video here). WILL PAY $150 IF CONVINCING — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Cristiano Ronaldo be with Al Nassr at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple buy Notion to compete with Microsoft Office 365? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will NVIDIA and OpenAI announce intent to merge by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Lana Del Rey still be married To Jeremy Dufrene at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Amazon prime monthly subscription fee be $15 or higher at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon be subpoenaed or indicted for foreign ties, money laundering, or other election interference by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many non-immigrant visas will the U.S. Issue in FY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• October 16th will obviously be the biggest day in AI this year — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Yale's failure to disclose 15 million in Qatari funding, precipitate a Federal investigation? *See below Info* — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• In 2025 ETH will reach at least — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which UCI Pro teams will be awarded automatic wildcards to races in the 2026 WorldTour calendar? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Hunter Biden is convicted in any federal case, will the next president pardon him or commute his sentence? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Autotab raise more than $10 million by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jon Jones retire from MMA in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin be above $69K on both 6/9 AND 9/6 in 2025? (June 9th and Sept 6th) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Deshaun Watson ever play in another NFL game? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be ≥10k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI abandon their non-profit structure by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Can anyone beat me in the Pokemon Monotype Gauntlet? [Rock vs Fire round] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an oral insulin pill be publicly available before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be an Instant spell card? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any U.S. State have more than 1,000,000 customers without power in 2025 again (after mid Jan power outages)? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🧑‍💻Which Websites/Apps will have a significant unintended outage due to DDOS or other reason in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk purchase Infowars by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the United States pull out of the USMCA by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• In which quarter will Puella Magi Madoka☆Magica -Walpurgisnacht Rising- be released? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an American visit the Chinese space station by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Hollow Knight: Silk Song be released in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Lamine Yamal play for PSG by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israeli strikes kill any Irish peacekeepers in Lebanon by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jack Ma found another company? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Nick Fuente's streaming platform Cozy.tv still be accessible at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will the status of TikTok be in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will TikTok be banned in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the validity of the Consumer Price Index as a measure of inflation be widely questioned during 2025? #Economics — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who Will Win the Chess World Cup 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Since the beginning of the Israeli siege will 500,000 or more Gazans die of any cause by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Richard Hanania and David Shor become friends in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be free to use 6 months after its release? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the GC Ultimate Kickstarter be shut down by Nintendo before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Netflix's increase its standard with ads monthly subscription fee before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will Waymo provide robotaxis in the East Coast? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a 'The Streamer Awards' in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will TSLA reach $500 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Was the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, a resident of the state of Georgia? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Iran abolish its hijab law by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI have a new name by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025, will Google still display "Gulf of America" when "gulf of mexico" is searched? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Warp still be operating at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will another Pokémon Mystery Dungeon game be officially announced before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• MrBeast acquires a company for >$100M by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a police named suspect related to the death of John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Party leaders resigning after Canadian federal election — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Three Most Visited Websites by EOY 2025 [ORDERED] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🎵 By 2026, will any fully AI-generated song hit the Billboard Hot 100 or Spotify Top 50 for at least one week? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What does the Q in Q* stand for? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Vaush still be streaming regularly at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the CFPB be legislatively eliminated in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Carlos Alcaraz win at least one Grand Slam in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many times will SpaceX launch Starship in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump sign an executive order in 2025 that dissolves the Department of Education and is not overturned by courts? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone figure out what my (now deceased) hostile wooden cube was for? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will we calculate the APM of AOE2 pros (eg Daut, Viper, MBL, TaToH) by EOY 2025 *just* by screen recordings/YT? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump make any successful recess appointments to his cabinet in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Shaye Coplan testify before congress in 2025? (CEO of polymarket) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will DeepSeek release V4? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will automated chemical synthesis be able to automatically synthesize at least 70% of phikal/thikal by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin drop down below $40,000 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a released image of Donald Trump and Laura Loomer kissing lip to lip by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Overleaf still be the most popular online Latex editor by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Riad Salameh be convicted of any crime due to the alleged money laundering/ponzi accusations before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of these writing accomplishments will Zvi Mowshowitz achieve in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a film directed by Dave Bautista be announced by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be Austin's next major endeavor? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I start HRT before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Curtis Yarvin be reported by any online media source to advise the Donald Trump administration by EOY2025? (EHC) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple announce a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a raise to the top capital gains tax rate be enacted in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier be dead by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a Lego set crossover with Magic the Gathering by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will my net worth surpass M$100k by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mahmoud Khalil be deported from the US or leave it due to harassment by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Coffee cost more than Tea at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will basedbeffjezos get laid in 2024/2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will GPT5 still be unable to distinguish history from fantasy in romance of three kingdoms — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a Zootopia attraction open at Disney's Animal Kingdom before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What WON'T happen by EoY 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Ukraine holds an election while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, who will win? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Yang's 2025 predictions: Will at least one member of Congress or the Senate declare him or herself to be an Independent? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an op-ed “translated from” an animal (e.g. a Whale) be published in any major American newspaper by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What other government agencies will deny access to members of Congress? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Greece gain an investment-grade credit rating by Fitch or Standard & Poor before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk unveil a cell phone project in development by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the 538 brand be active again by the end of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the EO barring transgender US citizens from renewing passports be even partially overturned by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🆒CoolFold 25 Challenge: What will these 25 values be at EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who or what will President Trump go after before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Domenic Cummings be reported by any online media source to advise the Donald Trump administration by EOY2025? (EHC) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple or Microsoft have a greater market cap at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Keith Gill/"Deep Fucking Value"/"Roaring Kitty" face any legal consequences for pumping $GME? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I ever get tired of eating Panda Express? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• In the Indian remake of house md what will he buy instead of a motorcycle? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will 4chan reference @repligate/janus by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Price of Dogecoin (DOGE) at the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will more than one MF DOOM song be played during the MCU film DOOMSDAY? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Twitter/X revive the Vine app before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• New construction completed by? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Political Pattie's bar in Washington, D.C. close or announce closing before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Hasbro sell DnD by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 💊Will FDA approve 50 or more novel drugs in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Finch West LRT open before Eglinton crosstown LRT? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kanye West release a porn video to consumers before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Peter Griffin in City Escape break 5M viewers by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the FTC force OpenAI to delete any mainline DALL-E models by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I enjoy my work after the first week/month/year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US have a sovereign wealth fund by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a Bering Strait crossing be announced by Russia and the US, in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold be sent a case and desist letter from a state or federal attorney by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Metagame Conference take place September 12-14, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump host a summit with both Putin and Zelensky during 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any current member of the EU announce they are leaving before December 31st 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon tweet in 2025 about the money USA wastes on Israel? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• will Total Fall Enrollment in 4 Year Post-Secondary Degrees Reach 58.8% Female by the end of 2024 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🚫Who will be banned on Twitch at least once in the year 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 👍👎 Trump Approval Rating [Market Index] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🪇Which artists will get a Tiny Desk Concert on NPR in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a TV show or mini-series be made about the Silicon Valley Bank saga? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 😈How many people will Manifold send to Hell by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a member of US congress physically attack another member of congress before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will video generation AI make more product revenue than text models in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🗓️2025 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (26 DONE) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mark Friedenbach raise more than $5million between 2024 and 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Supreme Court decide 75 or more cases in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the NBA collaborate with Draftkings or Fanduel to release live betting on basketball games by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Palisades Nuclear Generating Station produce power again before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a law be enacted by Dec. 2025 that revokes lifetime benefits for former U.S. Presidents convicted of a felony? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will Elon, Tulsi, Vivek and RFK all get positions in the federal government by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a new European launch provider reach orbit in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will BrierFoxForecast surpass Manifold's 7d avg DAU count by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a bookmark page on Manifold be successful, if implemented? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What assets will become part of the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many times will SpaceX launch their Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a Fate/Extella 3 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google Maps display "Gulf of the International Proletariat" in place of "Gulf of Mexico" before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• JD Vance Meme Futures Index (#1 Best of 2025) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of the following Red States will have at least 50,000 undocumented immigrants removed in FY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Skibidi Toilet reach 100 full episodes (by the creator's numbering) by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will long call options for federal funds rate > 10% **in 5 years** be priced higher in EOY 2025 than 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Was the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, on antidepressants within a year of the shooting? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI's next major LLM release support video input? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold raise another $500K USD in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will North Korean troops intentionally enter South Korea by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a sitting president go on Joe Rogan's podcast in the year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Fyre Festival 2 actually happen before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Destiny be added to any sort of sex offender registry in the United States by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a legal sub two-hour marathon be run before December 31, 2025. — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone use STEMCELL or bit.bio technology for their regeneron STS project in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a bunch of “How I Left the Right” videos in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 who will have the highest WSOP earnings? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Impeach the Judge who blocked DOGE from accessing U.S. Treasury records? How far will this go? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 destroy the world? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will YouTube autoblur the faces of people in videos where they dont want their faces on the internet by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will happen to Sora OpenAi by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 😇How many people will Manifold send to Heaven by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If I were to punch someone at a bar, would there be legal consequences? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will my Pokemon AI win its Nat Dex Monotype Gauntlet? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will TikTok in the USA be owned by a USA company unrelated to Bytedance by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will we discover life on Mars before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• will elin ahlstrand try cross-frequency coupled transcranial alternating current stimulation by eoy2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google Fi be discontinued by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will Manifolders mostly use LLMs for, by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google Chrome be the most popular browser at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will KDE Plasma 6 be available in Debian 13 (stable)? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Was Joy Boy a Giant/Buccaneer? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What's up with the UAE AI bots on X/Twitter? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which will be graded first? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which movie is 2025 most likely to resemble? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Was the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, diagnosed with any mental illnesses prior to the shooting? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will another state besides Louisiana require the Ten Commandment in public school classrooms by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be 10k or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be Blue? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will Givewell's top-rated interventions be at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Rogan host Gary Kasparov on his show by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Destiny talk to Joe Rogan before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will r/WorldNews unpin the Russia/Ukraine thread before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Martin Shkreli be back in Prison before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• >1 company/VC that does prediction markets to predict employee competency by 2025 EOY — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of these twelve countries will have at least one known nuclear weapon in their possession at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a movie be made about the Silicon Valley Bank saga? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Coin26 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I judge GPT-5 to be smarter than o1 (not preview) after both are released? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• In the year 2025, what will be the average USD/CAD exchange rate? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of these Partner will remain a partner by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• will the "AI movie to a prompt" market stay above 65% for a week straight before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple Intelligence for iOS be available (in German) in Switzerland before Germany? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will Xiaohongshu limit overseas users — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will TYT's Ana Kasparian star in a "Why I Left the Left" video for PragerU by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Between 2024-2025, does Anthropic consume more total Adderall than OpenAI? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump ban lab-grown (cultured) meat before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 will the top 5 Mr Beast videos all have Dollar Signs and at least three Zeros in their titles? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a change in the members of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be a Land card? (non-Basic) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Turkey be at least partly free by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin drop below $20,000 before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a transformer based model be SOTA for video generation by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Now that R/GA is an independent agency, will it embark on a new era of creativity and awards? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone create a YouTube video+song about falling love with Jose Luis Ricon by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Melania Trump file for divorce from Donald Trump in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be ≥15k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will 1-month exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) of ethereum by higher at EOY2025 than EOY2024? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will GCP still be a significant cloud provider by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Qorantos join and speak live on Destiny's stream at least once in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an English release of Fate/hollow ataraxia be announced before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the most followed user on Bluesky / Bsky at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How much will NBC pay Ronna McDaniel? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mark Zuckerburg get divorced in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Juul products be sold in 7 Eleven stores again before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• In 2025: human marathon under 2h OR Bitcoin reaches $150K OR perfect game pitched OR Manifold reaches 40K MAU? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the LDS church's Russia temple be completed and operating before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Conditional on a major breakthrough happening in physics thanks to AI, will it be due to deep learning? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If people tried text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning with the LK-99 papers, do you think it would help it replicate? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Trump wins the election, will Vivek Ramaswamy be given a government position (cabinet or otherwise) by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Pillowfort.social shut down by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Pete Rose be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a confirmed OTK in competitive Divorced Dads TCG by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will hedera hashgraph/HBAR reach an ATH in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Diddy live to see his sentencing? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Dan Dascalescu be happier in 2025 than 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Main Quest any% speedrun time be 21 minutes or less by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Is Eustass Captain Kid the son of Dr. Vegapunk? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Roko (of Roko's Basilisk fame) try tFUS/PropheticAI by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Biden Win 2024 Election OR [Major Market] Resolve YES? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump be considered a fugitive from justice in any US jurisdiction by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be more political self-immolations in 2025 as compared to 2024 as reported by Wikipedia? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald trump send out another stimulus package to all americans before January 1st, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Boston get a major >70mph wind gust in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Is this post from SBF's X account posted by SBF himself? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many people voted for the Gleeks in the 2024 Presidential Election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What is the market value of AGI? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What military secrets will be leaked this year on the War Thunder gaming forums? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Congress extend or increase Child Tax Credit by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Z-Library admins be extradited to the United States by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Senate vote down any of Trump's cabinet picks in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which celebrities will come out as transgender in 2025? (Add answers) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Talk / Hawk Tuah podcast last 50 episode or more? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the price of chicken leg quarters increase before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Best Open Weight LLM by EOY 2025 (by company/organization) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will another Moderator be banned by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Matei Zaharia's posts on HeavenGames show up in a LLM created about him by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Papayathief be convinced to one box in Newcomb’s Paradox in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Vanguard offer Bitcoin ETF before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many mass shootings will take place in 2025 in the US, as reported by massshootingtracker.site? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will the Litecoin (LTC) ETF be approved? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the MIT banana lounge serve >15% organic bananas by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kamala Harris visit Ukraine by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 will Mr Beast's most viewed video have been made in the last year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon still be CEO of Tesla at the end of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a new blockchain or NFT-based sports card product launch by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Danny Ryan re-join the Ethereum Foundation in a leadership position by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Shanks and Luffy meet again in person before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an LLM create a model/book/bio of Jose Luis Ricon based all the questions asked about him by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will r/ManifoldMarkets reach X number of subscribers — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tesla have driverless ride-hailing in the US by end of year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• WIll Brian Chau (psychosort) vote conservative for the 2025 canadian federal election — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Snapchat sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Fadzai Madzingira no longer be employed by Twitch's Trust and Safety team by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Bayes Rates: What is your personal prior for Israeli annexation of any new land in Gaza by the next Israeli election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which Starship booster will be the first to be reflown? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will The S&P 500 Close above 6,500 on December 31st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, or Meta) acquire a neurotech startup in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump visit Russia during 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Noam Chomsky be alive at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Lex Fridman interview Ken Griffin by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold Markets until 2025-12-31? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🗺️Which countries will Trump visit in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many open Polymarket markets about AI at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Slack sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Play Station 6 be announced before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Wil yacine / @kache still be working at Twitter / X at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🤢Will I throw up / vomit at some point in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will apple sell a computer with cell phone connectivity by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AI Therapist be a mainstream job title by December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Chainsmokers actually perform at the Edge of Space in 2025 as claimed in 2022? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Nintendo's next console generation have VR? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce break up before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Grand Theft Auto 6 break both 11M units sold and $800M sales in one day, the records that GTA5 set on release? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the richest living woman citizen of the USA at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI IPO before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will federal abortion rights be restored by the courts under the 13th amendment which confers a right against involuntary servitude? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which well-known scientist will Eliezer Yudkowsky have a long recorded conversation with about AI risk, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🎧Which artists will get an Anthony Fantano (The Needle Drop) review on Youtube in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Burkina Faso reinstate the death penalty by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Dick Van Dyke, Mel Brooks, David Attenborough or Gene Shalit live the longest? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bryan Johnson and Elon Musk talk in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an official Waffle House stage be added to Tekken 8 by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mia Aiyana Cardenas (TKS=>NYU) win emergent ventures by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🐲Who will Slay me on the creator leaderboard? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be an open source, uncensored AI image generator with the same or greater quality as DALLE-3 by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who, if anyone, will emerge as an authoritarian leader figure in the Martian Revolution or its immediate aftermath? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which of these movies will have the highest rating on Letterboxd by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• when will mkissinger be active again in lilypad? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a Millennium Prize problem be solved in the year 2025 with the help of AI? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• French, Polish, German and/or British troops deployed to Ukraine by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Did Luigi Mangione substantially leverage LLMs to plan the killing of UHC CEO Brian Thompson? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Prince William be crowned King by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 New York City (NYC) mayoral election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will evidence come out showing amouranth had foreknowledge of the robbery against her by eoy 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Eric Rosen join Manifold before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a company by @barak raise 2mil before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Conor McGregor win the 2025 Ireland presidential election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Yoko Ono live to see 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be the top rated game on BoardGameGeek at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Hunter Biden be alive in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which celebrity couples will separate/divorce by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• will fuh's 100k steps market be known to have been faked, by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which nations will take in Palestinian refugees? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be any lynchings in the USA by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a Magic the Gathering crossover with Lego (card or lego set) by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Oklahoma ban porn? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google Pay be discontinued by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bill Gates make any Tweeter(X) posts in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any top economist author or coauthor a paper on the journal Seeds of Science? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Los Angeles have the highest Champ score on Champs or Chumps at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Putin visit the United States in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a erage earth temperature increase by more than 2 % by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will USA leave NATO or refuse Article 5 by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• [MLS Rumor Mill] What newcomers will make an appearance for a Major League Soccer team in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone throw a pitch 106 mph or faster during a MLB game by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Whatifalthist have an arrest record by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifund give out another loan of size > 100k USD to another person/organization before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will JD Vance go on Dwarkesh in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I get a tenure track job in a couple of years? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How pro-trans agenda are you? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any AI music I release achieve a Manifold rating >= 5 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Did Google intentionally announce Gemini Ultra in a state barely outperforming GPT-4 to slow the capabilities race? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be Donald Trump’s Secretary of Labor? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Willl Aliensrock reach 800k subscribers by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What percentage of school-age Americans (K-12) will be reported as having been homeschooled in the spring of 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will win the Skibidi wars? 👨🏻🚽 ⚔️ 📺📹 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Broadway see attendance recover to 13M or more for the 2024-2025 season? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many times will Electron launch in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will GPT-4 be integrated into mainstream virtual assistant technologies (Alexa or Siri), by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I be able to watch The Day The Clown Cried before Beyond the Spiderverse? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Puella Magi Madoka☆Magica -Walpurgisnacht Rising- be released in or before Winter 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Mar-a-Lago by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any North Korean soldier defect after being deployed in Ukraine by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Lebanon officially abandon the Lebanese Pound and adopt the US Dollar as their national currency by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone create a LLM/chatbot fine-tuned to Eliezer's LessWrong sequences by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• what is best? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will electric vehicles make up more than 25% of new US car sales by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline GPT models by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will 10+ acres of land surrounding the Tumangan River be sold from Russia to China by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which users will attend Manifest 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump leave the United States in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple be providing Secure Element access to EEA developers by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the next leader of Hamas (free response)? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the DOGE uncover a Government funded sexual scandal this year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many of the 50 celebrities on DeathList 2025 will pass away? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Xi Jinping and Donald Trump meet face-to-face by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• The next Valve VR device will have the following features — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Congress extend the cap on SALT deductions by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Balatro sell over 10 million copies by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Annette Toutonghi get confirmed to be part of the voice cast for Hazbin Hotel and Helluva Boss? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will it be illegal to call someone a witch in Ghana by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Matthew Mercer defeat Matt Collville — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Warp go public by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Nouns Esports still have two or more sponsored players at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a leak of military secrets or sensitive information on the War Thunder game forums in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple release a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will YouTube begin restricting uploads by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kraken be the 3rd largest crypto exchange market at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Luigi get away with killing the CEO by a jury nullification by my judgement? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a Hubble Servicing mission receive a green light in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Red or Blue overtake Silver to become the 4th most popular car color in the USA at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will one bitcoin be worth more than $200k at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Balatro have Steam Workshop support for mods by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a new television series produced by David Simon air before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will 2024 be the final Manifest? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold implement N/A shares by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the SEC charge Donald Trump with stock manipulation related to DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group) by Dec. 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Other than ClaudePlaysPokemon, which AIs will have their own Twitch streams (>24 hrs) playing video games by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will new users be charged to post on Twitter / X by the end of 2025 in the USA? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will another US ridesharing company surpass Lyft before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will NVDA net income be higher than $70B for calendar year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025, will H5N1 Bird Flu have evolved to the point where the CDC declares it a global pandemic for humans? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a police named suspect related to the death of Joshua Dean (2nd Boeing whistleblower) by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Vince McMahon settle out of court with any of his sex scandal accusers? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Saudi Arabia and Israel announce the establishment of official diplomatic relations before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many users will Bluesky have at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Alice Cai (from Harvard/augmentationlab.org) win Emergent Ventures by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold offer any kind of paid subscription service before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will System of a Down release new Music before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Oklahoma city experience a major tornado by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a recession start in 2024 conditional on the following oil prices? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a neurotech company face a lawsuit over unauthorized brain data collection in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a radio station play any AI music I create in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Fargo, North Dakota still use Approval Voting at the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Belarus be at least partly free by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jason Ween still be streaming on Twitch at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI change their naming scheme (GPT-X) with the successor to GPT-4? (Ṁ200 subsidy!) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX announce any sort of deal with Russia or China before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a federal election in Canada in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will marijuana be federally descheduled from a Schedule 1 illegal drug in the USA before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the majority of respondents to this poll think that it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will calder at spacex get fired for un following Elon and tweeting about it this year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a 2nd sitting member of Congress die while in office before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How High Will the NAV Premium of MSTR/MicroStrategy Go in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Ukraine holds an election in 2025, who will win? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the creator of this market (me) be here to resolve it on December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, have voted for Trump in the last election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Top score on codeforces by an AI model at the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many H5N1 bird flu human cases will be confirmed in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be the Amazon prime monthly subscription fee at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will mixed reality (MR) gain mass adoption by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone reach 1B mana profit on Manifold before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kaivu, Atticus and I's current project get accepted to ICML 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the USA Gold Card launch in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Project 2025 accomplish its plans in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Opinion poll: Was the 2020 election “free and fair”? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which current UFC champions (including interim) will remain champion through 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Ross Ulbricht on Joe Rogan in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Child Tax Credit provide the maximum benefit to filers with no earnings in the 2025 tax year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Netflix release a show about Raygun before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any country place new tariffs on Tesla in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be 50 inches of rain in Central Park this year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Congress ban the sale of USA citizen genetic information to foreign companies or organizations by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone from sundai.club get a Nvidia's Project Digits desktop AI supercomputer by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump Win 2024 Election AND [Major Market] Resolve YES? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a research paper that uses Manifold data and has 100 Google Scholar citations by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will France’s next aircraft carrier be named after? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the price of Bitcoin be below 75k USD at any point in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Is being a troll or trolling other people, under normal circumstances, something to be proud of? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Brier Fox Forecast be more popular than Manifold Markets by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any AI music I release achieve 10,000 listens on Soundcloud in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Beyond Meat (BYND) be acquired by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Perplexity be acquired by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the United States default on its sovereign debt obligations by December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which city will have the highest Champ score at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the H1B visa cap be raised (above 85000) for fiscal year 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the worst Top Apple score be 18 or less on AppleRankings.com at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will SBF be physically in prison/jail at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will ACX Grants 2025 disburse more than $1.5mm? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic Party in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the National Environmental Protection Act be substantially reformed by the end of 2025. — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Gotham Chess (Levy Rozman) join Manifold before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many net rate cuts will the Fed (Federal Reserve) do in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold Reach X number of Monthly Active Users in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will figure_robot be able to make a cup of coffee from the breville coffee maker by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which popular websites will be conquered by the bots by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Warp be acquired by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Lionel Messi be with Inter Miami at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the League of Legends fighting game 2XKO fully release before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump strip USA citizenship from at least one full citizen by the end of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the founder of Telegram be sentenced to jail time in the EU by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Dollar still be the most prominent currency by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I finish reading Hugh Elton's Roman Empire in Late Antiquity by the end of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Luffy find the One Piece in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a dislike button on Twitter / X before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which episode of Black Mirror is 2025 most likely to resemble? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the new $SHOGGOTH project promoted by Martin Shkreli end in a rug pull or other loss of customer funds by EOY 2030? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I create a controversial market in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Yoko Ono outlive Dick van Dyke? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• anthropic mcp for roam research to exist by EOY2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will causality be an important ingredient in major commercial applications of AI by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which Elon Musk company will be worth more at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What percentage of shots not taken misses? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AI make it possible to autoname all images in a folder based on the image contents by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Oppositional Position Market 2 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Hytale have a publicly available beta or full release for the game before Jan 1st 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a new CRT or CRT-like display for retro gaming manufactured before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the USA become a province of Pakistan? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many of the people Trump announces he will nominate do not ultimately serve in that role? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Moo Deng's popularity result in leaving the country for a tour, visit or show in another country by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Amazon finalize a sale of Twitch by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What percentage of Senators will vote to confirm these nominees? [See below on how this market resolves] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 😈Who will go to Hell by EOY 2025 according to Manifold? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Microsoft buy cursor before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Destiny move to NYC by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Pxie and Destiny settle their lawsuit by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a session about "Cool Poker" / "Poker 2" / "RPS Poker" at a Manifest held in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🚒What will be true about the 2025 Holiday Hess Truck? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a sequel to the video game Bully announced before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone sell one of the rare 14k gold Kanohi Hau Bionicle Masks in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What type of cancer does King Charles have? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold add emoji reactions to comments by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will lead the Canadian Liberal Party at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Michael Vassar visit at least one Taco Tuesday in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🚫Who will be banned on Youtube at least once in the year 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Eric Weinstein be appointed to any cabinet or federal position by Trump's administration by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas War? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Is The Pipe Plaza run by a frequent user of the Marioverse Discord Sever — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Is Fredi9999 Frédéric Arnault? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be more McDonald stores than Starbucks stores in the US at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Reddit r/WorldNews remove the Ukraine-Russia stickied thread before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Groupama-FDJ 2025 Predictions/Hot Takes [LRCP Previews] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• End Result of HR 1936 (bans funding for any offensive military actions in Canada, Greenland, and Panama) (add options) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Dan Crenshaw address Hasan before Congress by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tom Brady go on Pardon My Take before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I get TMS this year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AI image=> video be pwrfl enough to make a person in an image rotate/walk/change clothes by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Retatrutide (new obesity drug) be FDA approved by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will diarrheal diseases be among the top 5 causes of death in children under five years old in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Spheres, like the one in Las Vegas, become mainstream and be in more than 5 cities by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be true of Safe Superintelligence Inc.? [Add Answers] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will Apple announce the next Vision headset? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI make a profit in 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a vegan supplement combining ALL of taurine+creatine+carnosine/beta-alanine, be widely available by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be at the top of Rejuvenation Olympics by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone use autotab to create more than 50 questions on manifold by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, be found alive? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• GPT-5: >150k token context window — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• IF RFK is HHS Secretary and H5N1 transmits human-to-human in the US, will he try to curtail vaccine production? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Nobel Prize by 2026 if LK-99 superconductor replicates? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will mihawk do a named attack this year — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Epona be in the upcoming Legend of Zelda movie? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Wikipedia still be in the top 10 most visited websites at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a market description minimum length be successful on Manifold, if implemented? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google discontinue the Chromecast product line by the end of 2025 without offering a replacement? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump announce his intention to enact zero capital gains tax on crypto by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will BTC reach a high of $150k in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Science retract the paper on Wuhan wet market COVID origins (Worobey et al. 2022) by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• trump shows tesla he bought to public in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will X (formerly Twitter) merge with DJT (Trump social media company) by year end 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which countries will Tetraspace visit in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jagmeet Singh still be the leader of the opposition after the next Canadian election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be an attempted physical assault on anyone working for DOGE? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What LLM API will work unmodified until the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will UNAIDS report that AIDS caused more deaths in 2024 than in 2023? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will VGK (European Stock ETF) outperform VOO (US S&P 500 Stock ETF) in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Bridges podcast make it to 100 episodes? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Rocket Lab launch Neutron in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a new record for most expensive stamp collecting related item by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Henry (arithmoquine) take more than 100mg Adderall on any day before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the CoolFold 100 Challenge get 1000 traders by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Talk / Hawk Tuah podcast last 100 episodes or more? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifund give out another loan of size > 1mil USD to @MarcusAbramovitch before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Luffy find the One Piece by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be a citizen of the USA at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump announce AND enact zero capital gains tax on crypto by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the best Top Apple score be 98 or more on AppleRankings.com at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will @StochasticParrot attend a Manifest in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I be alive at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Trump assassination attempt before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Bilt credit card introduces transaction fees when paying rent — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Nintendo release a new game console before Valve releases any new VR headset? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be 40 inches of rain in Central Park this year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which unused Pokémon type combinations will be used during (or before) Generation 10? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Richard Hanania be a Manifold Partner by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• ⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2025? (5 DONE) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2025 predict correctly? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Skibidi Toilet still be uploading new episodes when the Five Nights at Freddy's Movie Sequel is revealed? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will all of the publicly accessible parts of heavengames.com/aok.heavengames.com become part of a large language model like Claude or GPT by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump be charged with lying under oath (perjury) by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Phlegraean Fields super volcano erupt by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Shanghai be nuked in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Amy Gleason not be head of DOGE before end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI release an app on the Mac App Store in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the New York Stock Exchange NYSE offer 24/7 trading on at least 10 stocks by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will at least one person or group selected for the 2025 Kennedy Center Honors decline the award? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump appoint Donald Trump Jr as ambassador to any country by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the LDS Church (Mormons) lose it's tax exempt status in the US before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Melania run in 2028? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Where will we honeymoon? (Subsidized! Reward for new answers!) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be more EV charging stations installed in the US in 2025 than 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• United States of America v. Apple Inc. ⚖ Antitrust Case 2:24-cv-04055 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Miro (miro.com) IPO in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many orbital launch attempts will we see in 2025 around the world? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Resolves to the number of traders at market close, looping back to 0% after 100 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the first trillionaire? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will someone reference 'succulent chinese meal' while being arrested in 2025, verified by video? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many crewed launches will Boeing's Starliner have in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which was the worst Stormlight book of the first arc? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Texas ban "non-human behavior" in schools in the 89th legislative session? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will MetroCard be phased out by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift marry Travis Kelce by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tetra be able to speak any non-English major language by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bill Belichick go on Pardon My Take before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be 85k or more people living in the NYC homeless shelter system at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will S&box (Sandbox) release before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis Ricon BAKE A CAKE for @lydia in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Amazon release a version of Alexa with GPT4-level intelligence by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Domenic Cummings be reported by any online media source to interact with JD Vance by EOY2025? (EHC) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Eric Zhu of aviato get a girlfriend by EOY2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will JD Vance say the word "microplastics" [recorded by the Internet] in either 2024 or 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Barron Trump publicly make a statement denouncing or disavowing his father's actions or words by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Polymarket acquired by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple launch their first folding devices with one that costs less than $2000? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will Trump turn on Elon? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What is Blackbeard's Special Lineage? OP Chapter 1110+ — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Gflownet becomes mainstream by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which one is the most enjoyable prediction market? (2025) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin drop down below $50,000 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Breakthrough in symbolic regression by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any two of marijuana, MDMA, and psilocybin be rescheduled by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Polymarket become legal and regulated in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be more than 70 Active Volcanoes at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Gautam Adani make it to the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Twitch have a new CEO by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will chatbots/AI be powerful enough to make me unsad by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Dwarkesh Patel get girlfriend by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a Chinese sequel to the movie The Mermaid release in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Gabe Newell's new yacht Project Y722 set sail before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Andrew Tate or his brother be found guilty of a crime or sentenced before the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin (BTC) reach $130k before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will Sierra Space launch Dream Chaser? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How far will the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act go? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will new science.org survive to 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will more than 10,000 Americans die of H5N1 bird flu by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the birth rate in Singapore be at least 3% higher in 2025 than in 2023? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a Presbyopia treatment be approved by Dec 31, 2025 to fully restore near vision without glasses or contact lenses? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, claim to have lost a friend due to denied claim or similar? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will win an MVP first? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will JACK outperform JILL in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will cryptocurrency (e.g., Bitcoin) reach $200,000 before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Oppositional Position Market 1 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the owner of TikTok at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will US TIKTOK (Post divestitur) be operating in India before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• In Esurient, will Lyvina at some point crack open the world? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk substantially divest from any of his companies? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the official ClaudePlaysPokemon stream complete Pokémon Red? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Justin Bieber testify in any legal proceedings against Sean 'Diddy' Combs by December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Hunter Biden be physically in prison / jail at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Asuras Wrath 2 be announced with a trailer by the end of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the average IQ/intelligence of manifold users in 2025 be lower than that of 2023? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• New Glenn's furthest milestone in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an academic paper on tFUS + psychedelics be published by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 2025 Soccer League & Competition Winners — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis Ricon *or* Chelsea Voss *or* Predrag Gruevski log more than 20 hours of Civ7 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Cannonball Run speed record be 25 hours or lower by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be the PyTorch of AI engineering at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Quora questions be auto-answered by a more sophisticated bot (at level of GPT3.5 or higher) by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tumblr support following from ActivityPub accounts by EoY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Flexport internal prediction market on freight rates have alpha (as per their CEO)? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Netflix remain the most popular video streaming platform at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Twitter enable search on liked items by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Federal Government Acquire Bitcoin in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Universal Orlando's Wizarding World of Harry Potter have fully interactive moving portraits by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will have found the most Sidekick bugs when the linearizer launches? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the average SAT scores of The Knowledge Society (TKS) students be higher in 2025 than in 2020? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will VLONEPREDATOR still be posting "Black and Chinese" pictures of people on Twitter at EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I not be sad most of the time by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• After GPT 5 is launched, will Microsoft's stock rise in the following two weeks? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Alvin Bragg resign? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Gen Z consider Apple's Genmoji to be "boomer cringe"? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman be alive on the one year anniversary of strong AGI being credibly announced? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the poll asking if it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2025 actually reach 500 responses by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will The Rock be cast as The Boulder in Netflix's Avatar: The Last Airbender live-action series? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu stop being prime minister of Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas war — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Hawk Tuah girl Hailey Welch be charged with a financial crime by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025, will Manifold think things have changed for the worse for us as a society? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Anything Else podcast reach 100 episodes? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Navy commission a new battleship by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Ross Ulbricht cashes out some bitcoin in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis Ricon (JLR) get wasted by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• US Recession before 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bryan Johnson talk to JD Vance in 2024 or 2025? [or will JD Vance acknowledge Bryan Johnson's presence] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kamala Harris be the next Supreme Court nominee? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the University of Waterloo international student population fall by more than 10% between EOY2024 and EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a Magic the Gathering card that is a crossover with Lego by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, be ordered to be broken up in the USA by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will California hold a vote to secede from the U.S.? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will it be possible to generate a 1h+ movie from a book in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• This question will resolve YES on 2026-01-01 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Trump dies peacefully in his sleep in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which controversial actor will return to films first? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will SBF make a tweet in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What type of cancer does Kate Middleton have? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) be integrated in common technology devices by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will retro.bio use deuterium-enriched water/nutrients by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the next successful crewed landing on the Moon be done in a Starship derived vehicle? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a Cybertruck be reported to be involved in any FSD-related fatality by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Chihayafuru receive a fourth season in or before 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google create a new internally-developed smartphone model and sell it widely at some point in the year 2025 or 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• will @aenews be banned from manifold by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many times will New Glenn launch in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will New York Magazine walk back the $50k in a shoebox article by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon take a paternity test for Ashley St Clair's child AND have it be confirmed to be his by EOY? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Is Crocodile Luffy's Mom? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the COVID vaccine be banned in the U.S.? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be 90k or more people living in the NYC homeless shelter system at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Austin return to working for Manifold before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Asmongold go on one of Destiny's podcasts by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the United States have more than 2,500,000 households without power before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tucker Carlson relocate to Russia and spend more than two consecutive months there by December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Was another person hit by the same bullet as Trump? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will a majority of US kids dont know how to read analog clocks? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be the unique trader bonus given to Yes/No market creator at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the killer of Bryan Johnson be arrested by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• This question will resolve N/A. — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be the level of philanthropic funding for nuclear issues in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will JD Vance visit AGI house in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will this market get at least 77 traders by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Wisconsin have a higher population than Denmark at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any EU country or NATO stop sharing intelligence with the United States by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will Jared Kushner or Ivanka Trump have a role in his administration? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Bilt credit card starts requiring >5 transactions each billing period — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Djokovic announce retirement in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Channel 5 / Andrew Callaghan Movie be Rotten on RottenTomatoes a month after release? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a release date for the Shadow of the Colossus movie announced by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will San Diego FC make the playoffs in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will JD Vance be charged with a crime by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mr Beast have a video with 1 billion views by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Who has received USAID funding? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Ciconia: When They Cry Phase 2 be released by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the eighth Mission: Impossible film out gross Dead Reckoning Part One worldwide by the end of its theatrical run? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the paper "Model Cards for Model Reporting" still be influential in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Trade war won by USA? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin surpass $200,000 before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a credible assassination attempt on Elon Musk confirmed by law enforcement by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Beyond Meat (BYND) file for bankruptcy by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a radio station play any AI music I create in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the next successful crewed landing on the Moon be done in a Starship derived vehicle? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• In which quarter will Puella Magi Madoka☆Magica -Walpurgisnacht Rising- be released? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Chainsmokers actually perform at the Edge of Space in 2025 as claimed in 2022? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the 16th Doctor Who be Asian? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will 10+ acres of land surrounding the Tumangan River be sold from Russia to China by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will New York Magazine walk back the $50k in a shoebox article by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AI/foundation models be able to extract the exponential parameter alpha of an exponential plot by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce break up OR get engaged before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Kraken be the 3rd largest crypto exchange market at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tony Tony Chopper appear in Season 2 of One Piece on Netflix? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a new record breaking most expensive coin by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel annex a part of the West Bank by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AI make it possible to autoname all images in a folder based on the image contents by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• In 2025, will a Magic: The Gathering card be banned within 4 weeks of becoming legal in a format? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Destiny stream on Twitch again before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jinbe appear in Season 2 of One Piece on Netflix? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Toronto bike lanes be removed due to Doug Ford? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• When will a majority of US kids dont know how to read analog clocks? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will anonymous limit orders be placeable in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• US Recession before 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Domenic Cummings be reported by any online media source to advise the Donald Trump administration by EOY2025? (EHC) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will JD Vance visit AGI house in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• ☃️What will happen in December 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If I were to punch someone at a bar, would there be legal consequences? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Microsoft buy cursor before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will this market get at least 77 traders by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Yoko Ono live to see 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any EU country or NATO stop sharing intelligence with the United States by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the NYC subway still report an On-time Performance of >=85% at the end of 2025? (overall 12-month average) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI release an app on the Mac App Store in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which company will go public (IPO) on the US stock market first? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Spheres, like the one in Las Vegas, become mainstream and be in more than 5 cities by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis Ricon have babby (#RiconBabby) by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Nouns Esports still have two or more sponsored players at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple launch their first folding devices with one that costs less than $2000? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be Austin's next major endeavor? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Ciconia: When They Cry Phase 2 be released by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the eighth Mission: Impossible film out gross Dead Reckoning Part One worldwide by the end of its theatrical run? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• MrBeast acquires a company for >$100M by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a new species, previously unknown to science, be discovered in Lake Vostok by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be a Land card? (non-Basic) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will this market resolve below 50%? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will JonTron be on one of Destiny's podcasts by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will an open-source text-to-music LLM model be able to create an entire album as convincing as a human by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any major LLM (like phind/mixtral) contain the entirety of @zvi's blog (https://thezvi.wordpress.com) by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will automated chemical synthesis be able to automatically synthesize at least 70% of phikal/thikal by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will I not be sad most of the time by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AOC give birth to a baby by the end of 2025 like conservatives are rumoring? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Resolves to the number of traders at market close, looping back to 0% after 100 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Huberman scandal — what will be true by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Boston get a major >70mph wind gust in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Ranma 1/2 (2024) fully adapt the manga? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What programming language or large framework will I learn next? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Hasbro sell DnD by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Vaush still be streaming regularly at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the US Federal Government Acquire Bitcoin in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will the status of TikTok be in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Danny Ryan re-join the Ethereum Foundation in a leadership position by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump leave the United States in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump strip USA citizenship from at least one full citizen by the end of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold's Approval Ratings end the year over 50%? (Poll Index version) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the founder of Telegram be sentenced to jail time in the EU by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the next James Bond (after "No Time To Die") be played by a woman? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which users will attend Manifest 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier be dead by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elissa Slotkin or Tammy Baldwin end up voting for a Trump nominee that >=3 Republican senators vote against? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Conor McGregor be on the ballot in the 2025 Ireland presidential election? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Vanessa Cai get to meet Janus/repligate in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Should I switch majors to Mechanical Engineering from CompSci? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If shareholders vote to ratify Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package, will the courts strike it down again (by the end of 2025)? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Manuel M (@mm03993418) perform ELISA on Minicircle data w/avg increase in follistatin levels > 7 ng/mL by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Are the “Patriot Front” marchers >20% feds? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift marry Travis Kelce by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the New York Stock Exchange NYSE offer 24/7 trading on at least 10 stocks by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will it be possible for AI to have the potential to discover sub-quark structures by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• 🔥Will More Than 1,327,999 Acres Burn During The 2025 California Wildfire Season? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the USA's population ever drop below 100 million by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the average IQ/intelligence of manifold users in 2025 be lower than that of 2023? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any other country beside the USA officially update it's maps to also say Gulf of America by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• This question will resolve YES on 2026-01-01 — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jacob Rintamaki have raised more money than Andrew Gao by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Tetra be able to speak any non-English major language by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Congress extend lower tax rates for individuals by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many attendees will attend Washington, DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetups in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a film adaptation of "Remarkably Bright Creatures" by Shelby Van Pelt be released to theaters by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be more than 70 Active Volcanoes at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Dwarkesh Patel get girlfriend by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift be a voice actor in another animated movie before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Political Pattie's bar in Washington, D.C. close or announce closing before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Andrew Wilson takes an IQ test publicly will he get 100 or higher? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Asuras Wrath 2 be announced with a trailer by the end of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will They are Billions 2 be announced before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk testify before a Senate committee during 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any genetically modified human embryo be legally born by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Coffee cost more than Tea at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Breakthrough in symbolic regression by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will TYT's Ana Kasparian star in a "Why I Left the Left" video for PragerU by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be any lynchings in the USA by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• If Ukraine holds an election in 2025, who will win? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• High Class or Low Class? - Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "High Class" in 2025? (add answers) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Destiny have another interview on Lex Fridman's podcast before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, be found alive? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a Zootopia attraction open at Disney's Animal Kingdom before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump visit Israel by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the United States default on its sovereign debt obligations by December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which company will be worth more at the end of 2025: OpenAI or SpaceX? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a new element be discovered before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Safari remain the 2nd most popular browser by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Warren Buffet be alive past 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Mikhail (Misha) V. Blagosklonny [rapamycin guy w/cancer] make it through 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Matt Kaeberlein Dog Aging Project maintain 2024+2025 funding at *at least* >70% of 2022+2023 levels of funding? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Anything Else podcast reach 100 episodes? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump openly defy court orders? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will any U.S. State have more than 2,000,000 customers without power in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will USA leave NATO or refuse Article 5 by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Bill Belichick go on Pardon My Take before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Which one is the most enjoyable prediction market? (2025) — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a state in the USA ban Uber And/or Lyft outright for all counties and cities by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will a movie be made about the Silicon Valley Bank saga? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Erdogan president of Turkey through 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will General Fusion's Oxford demonstration plant be operational before Jan 1st, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Commonwealth Fusion System's SPARC fusion reactor achieve "commercially relevant net energy from fusion" by Jan 1st, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump be alive through the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump be alive through the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jerome Powell be alive through the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Jeff Bezos be alive through the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Angela Merkel be alive through the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Polymarket take more steps to verify that US citizens are not trading on their website before January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Worldcoin report a billion user signups before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will anyone on Twitter make a credible claim that @CarsonGale is arguing for something in bad faith by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will Zoro end up turning Wado Ichimonji into a black blade? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• If I start identifying as a woman, will it bother me? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will a player win a Super Smash Bros Melee major using a digital / leverless controller before January 1st 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will Flesh and Blood still have a strong competitive scene in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will the UK pressure credit card processors to enforce content censorship on Signal? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will Prometheus Fuels sell fuel by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will Frank Ocean release a new studio album before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will CGP Grey's 1 billion views Q&A have at least 20,000 questions asked? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will 4-day workweeks be as common by 2026 as fully remote work is now? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will Meta AI start an AGI alignment team before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will any transfer learning model, trained for any amount of time on one Atari environment, outperform the median human learning curve on most other Atari environments when transferred by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Did Annie Duke do anything that I would personally consider significantly unethical? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Conditional on anyone proposing marriage via Manifold before 2025, will that couple still be together after the proposal? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Conditional on a large-scale nuclear exchange involving the continental United States, will my house be hit with an EMP severe enough to damage any of our electronics? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will Google bring back Google Glasses before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will Celtic music become popular before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will CGP Grey's 1 billion views Q&A video include a question about prediction markets? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will a crop disease/fungus/blight significantly decrease North American crop yields before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will anyone implement a system resembling the one described in https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2011-11-04 on Manifold by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will SpaceX launch a mission to Hubble before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will the legislative filibuster weakened before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:00 UTC
• Will feining_for_gm hit expert in 1 CF contest — closes 2026-01-01 05:01 UTC
• If I'm alive by 2026, will I believe it is due to personal enjoyment of living or altruistic purposes — closes 2026-01-01 05:01 UTC
• Will the CDC announce that a "bird flu" (H5N1) epidemic exists anywhere in the United States in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:05 UTC
• Will I consider Hollow Knight: Silksong to be a 10/10 game? — closes 2026-01-01 05:09 UTC
• Will the Tontine surviving player count be 100 or less as of 2026-1-1? — closes 2026-01-01 05:10 UTC
• Apple launches a search engine before the end of 2025. — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will another global-scale novel pathogen emerge before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will someone clone an extinct animal, such as a mammoth, by the end of the decade? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the Wheel of Time on Amazon Prime Video be renewed for a fourth season by December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which of the following financial services/banking stocks will perform best in calendar year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will undocumented immigrants be able to vote for president in any state in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will France deploy troops to fight in Ukraine by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Putin confirm he ordered a nuclear strike by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What is the probability of dying in Snake Eyes Variant NNN? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will ACL continue to utilize ARR as the sole method of submission in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• UCI World Tour Relegation Watch 2023-2025: Which teams will be WorldTeams in 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Walgreens Boots Alliance (Walgreens Pharmacies) declare bankruptcy or that it is being sold by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What model version number will MidJourney default to at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Israel create a "buffer zone" in Gaza, and if so, how large will it be as a percentage of Gaza's total territory? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will there be a generic transformation that zk-ifies a SNARK by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk's political orientation change by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will The Time Person of The Year be a repeat winner from prior years in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI reach $12B annualized revenue by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which Canadian Leaders will JJ McCullough interview by December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Who Will Jon Jones Fight Next? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Given that Trump wins, will sports betting be substantially less legal federally at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Austin build more than 10M square footage of new construction in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Avalanche Energy deliver a prototype of next-gen space propulsion for qualification testing by 12/31/2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Daniel and Harper get back together? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Who is right about Imane Khelif's sex (gender)? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Walgreens Boots Alliance (Walgreens stores and pharmacies) declare bankruptcy or declare willingness to be sold — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• MLB: Will Aaron Judge hit more than 54 home runs in the 2025 season? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Is Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) caused by an accumulation of anything in the body? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will TA2 funding be solicited in 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme] — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ¿# de curules ganados por el PL en las elecciones de Honduras 2025? # of seats won by the LP in Honduras 2025 elections? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• MLB : Will the average number of team home runs per game exceed 1.15 in the 2025 MLB 2025 season? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• will USAMTS be discontinued next year? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Binance be the #1 exchange in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will I, @AiBets, get a job by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• callmereece Stock — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Gunko's full name be revealed to be Nerona Gunko? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Twitter IPO by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• According to Zillow, what will median price of a 1 bedroom apartment be in Austin at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• In which month and year will the debt ceiling either be suspended again, increased, or abolished? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which company's model will capture the largest share of the enterprise LLM market by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• When will the Quest 4 VR headset be released? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which of the following retail commerce stocks will perform the best in calendar year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Musk v. Zuck be fought by robots they program? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ¿Partido ganador de la eleccion a la alcaldia del D.C. en 2025? / Winning party of the C.D. 2025 mayoral election? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will I finish the first game released by BIGMODE? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the CDC announce a bird flu (H5N1) epidemic in the Us during 20025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Does @Ernie own a boat? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ¿Partido ganador de la elección a la alcaldia de La Ceiba en 2025? / Winning party of La Ceiba's 2025 mayoral election? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a popular contract break AA bundlers (e.g. ERC4337) via usage of EIP-1153 by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will over 1 million Chinese citizens be able to legally access twitter, youtube, and wikipedia at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What will be the outcome of my ACX grant for automated mass appraisal of land values in Philadelphia? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• MLB: Will the New York Yankees win more than 84 games in the 2025 season? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Manifold implement some kind of charity program before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which of these wrestlers will have been WWE World Heavyweight Champion by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will open-source AI win (through 2025)? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• If I join manifold.love, will I feel it had good rather than bad results? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Elon & Trump have a major falling out by EoY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will anything I plant produce edible fruit or seeds this year? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will 3 or more states pass laws that ban the sale or making of cultured meat by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What month (starting Jan 2023) will the next Dresden Files book (Twelve Months) come out? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will there be a blockbuster movie in the US before the end of 2025 that is acknowledged as written by AI — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• At least how many UCI Professional Road Cyclists will pass away in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Elbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur) — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will $MTCH and $BMBL exceed their closing prices on Feb 12, 2021, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Zelarys stock (Permanent) — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Zeraphant Stock — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ♻️ 🧟 Will composting of human remains be available in Delaware by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will ConsenSys experience an "exit" in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will General Fusion's MTF machine achieve fusion conditions above 100mm degrees Celsius by 12/31/2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Eric Adams be convicted of a felony by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• On Dec 31st, 2025, when I flip this coin, will it come up heads? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a gatekeeper be deployed in the real world by EoY 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme] — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Matt Gaetz be arrested by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ¿# de curules ganados por LyR en las elecciones de Honduras 2025? / # of seats won by L&R in Honduras' 2025 elections? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• When will OpenAI’s Operator be available to Plus users? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will an LLM agent complete >50% of the lab tasks on the Factorio Learning Environment benchmark in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• "The Purge": When will Ethereum implement state expiry? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Thepeopler Stock — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a zkML project get >$10,000 of funding on Manifund by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will anyone from Bradley Voytek lab (eg Richard Gao, Tom Donoghue) attend ISNR2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the final resting place of MH370 be found by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Non-SpaceX propulsive first stage landing by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will artificial intelligence be directly tied to an unemployment rise in the USA by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Facebook's monthly active users decline by Q4 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Manifold implement another way to handle conditional markets before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ¿Partido ganador de la elección a la alcaldia de Choluteca en 2025?/ Winning party of Choluteca's 2025 mayoral election? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) go bankrupt by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Who Was The Best Ancient Egyptian Pharaoh and Why? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• MLB: Will the Milwaukee Brewers play in the 2025 World Series? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will any of Trump's trophy properties be seized by the State of New York by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What will be the total number of electric vehicles sold globally in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will X (fka Twitter) declare bankruptcy and/or be sold for 50% or below its 2022 purchase price before end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 have Atari skills? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will people in the US consume more alcohol in 2025 than in 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which head of state will be the first to use a LLM live in a national address and which LLM will it be? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will there be a BRICS blockchain-based currency by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will someone upload a video of a parrot high on psychedelics to the Internet by EOY2025 — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher than the previous day? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What will the next US federal minimum wage be? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will someone upload a video of a duck high on psychedelics to the Internet by EOY2025 — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk beat Mark Zuckerberg if they fight in a cage match? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the Onion buy InfoWars? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which of these series will have games on Nintendo Switch 2 announced before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the number of people diagnosed with dementia be greater by 2026 than on Jan 1, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a Generative AI (LLM) startup IPO before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the legality of AI training on copyrighted works be settled by, and in favor of, the American Copyright Lobby, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 ace exams? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be calling the AntiChrist in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Amazon announce plans to spin off one or more businesses? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ThaManimal Stock — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Starlink have over ten million subscribers by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the Nintendo Switch 2 cost more than 160 dozen eggs in the US? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a democratic governor be criminally indicted by the DOJ by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift get married by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• If Trump wins the US presidential election, will at least 100 people die in riots/protests against his presidency? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• HB11 Energy will demonstrate fusion net gain with hydrogen-boron fuel by 12/31/2027. — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the final result of the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab and Brookhaven be at least 5 sigma? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Price of Bitcoin at the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will I lose another character in my PbP RPG server before anyone else loses a character? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Louis Arge (https://x.com/louisvarge) get a girlfriend by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What organization will win the bid to operate Fermilab? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the war in Ukraine end by 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Bitcoin hits 200k by start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Manifold *BAN* duplicate questions in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ¿Partido ganador de la elección a la alcaldia de Comayagua en 2025?/ Winning party of Comayagua's 2025 mayoral election? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Is there a grandmaster on Manifold? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Daft Punk release a new track in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts "today" between 9am to 9pm CST — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the Trump administration nominate Lina Khan for a new term as FTC Chair before December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What year will Splatoon 4 be released in? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• When will Apple release its “HomePod with a screen” device? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Kevin McCarthy become House speaker again before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• How many SpaceX Starship launches will there be in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which parties will be part of the next Belgian government? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which of the following will have the highest market cap to finish calendar year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• "The Splurge": When will Ethereum use VDFs? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• When will Balatro's "1.1" update come out? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which of the following semiconductor/GPU companies will have the highest overall change in stock price in CY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before GPT-5? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift marry Travis Kelce by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Mission Impossible do a James Bond on their Ethan Hunt Character — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• When will hbomberguy upload his next YouTube video? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What continent will True Detective Season 5 be set on? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Spacesteading be a thing by the end of 2025? (Read Description) — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Beyoncé’s Act III [Mega Market] — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Amazon Go continue to rely on cashierless payment through 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will I (@Robincvgr) still be active on Manifold at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a Large Language Model save a human life through medical advice by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will any hecsher certify a lab grown meat product as Kosher by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 qualify for the USAMO? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI have $1 billion in revenue in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which ten sub-$250 purchases will most significantly improve my quality of life by 2026? [2k Bounty] [Add Suggestions] — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the CDC announce that a "bird flu" (H5N1) epidemic exists anywhere in ther US during 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ¿Partido ganador de la eleccion a la alcaldia de SPS en 2025? / Winning party of the SPS 2025 mayoral election? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• When will the Canon RF 35mm f/1.2 be available for purchase? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will BTS perform together before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a helium-free Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) device be cleared by the FDA during 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Who will win the civil war in Sudan? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• When do we get Fallout Season 2? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will I eat any amount of @Tumbles's blood before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• machina0 Stock — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• When does Farcry 7 drop? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which ten decisions or habits will most significantly improve my quality of life by 2026? [2k Bounty] [Add Suggestions] — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• When will a Mission: Impossible film be released without Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will an LLM become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025? [READ DESCRIPTION] — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the US pass a bill focused on stopping internet piracy by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will @pmarca run Twitter? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Daniel Larson be back in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Elon musk retweet a Cybertruck in 2025 with an anime or hentai themed wrap? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• esun wan pi toki Inli ala li jo e jan esun pi mute seme lon tenpo sike 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• 1 BTC = 1 ETH (2025) — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will US Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) be found guilty in the bribery case? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which of the following defense companies will have the highest overall change in stock price in CY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk’s Tesla pay package ruling survive appeal? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Manifold Monthly Active users at end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Poland deploy troops to fight in Ukraine by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Coinbase be the #1/2 exchange in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which of the FAANG stocks will have the best calendar year performance in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Amazon have more robots than FTE humans before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• [Bounty] What is the source of this "Sexualize Everything" animal crossing meme? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Russia retaliate militarily on any non-participating member of NATO before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• What will the UCI do about cycling helmets? (Road and/or time trial) — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• "The Purge": When will Ethereum mainly use delay-encrypted mempools? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• If the Elon Musk vs Zuckerberg Fight goes through, will it be streamed on Twitter? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Non-SpaceX reusable first stage by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will there be a movie in wide showing in theaters in the US made by only by one person by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• In chess, what is the shortest amount of moves black needs to make to force a draw? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Donald and Melania Trump still be married in 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• If I get verified on WorldCoin by the end of 2024, will I have found it worthwhile by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Brandon Herrera be the next ATF Director? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ♻️ 🧟 Will composting of human remains be available in Maryland by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will COIN outperform BTC? (3yr) — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will an AI provider be sued due to the actions taken by their AI by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the 2024 US presidential election trigger a constitutional crisis? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• If Trump is elected in 2024, will Ukraine win the war with Russia? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Flowtrace stock (Permanent) — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the loser of the 2024 US Presidential election be arrested by 12/31/2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Worst Boyfriend Ever announce a book deal in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Isra Hirsi (Ilhan Omar’s daughter) graduate from Barnard College? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Bentham's Bulldog become a gay prostitute for EA by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ¿# de curules ganados por el PN en las elecciones de Honduras 2025? # of seats won by the NP in Honduras 2025 elections? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Amazon accelerate robot adoption? 1M before 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Albania formally recognize a Bektashi microstate within its borders by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a private company demonstrate nuclear fusion net gain (>1.0 energy out vs energy in) before 12/31/2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Anne Stock — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the Summit Carbon pipeline be built in South Dakota before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Antoine Griezmann play an MLS league match by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ¿Partido ganador de las elecciones legislativas de Honduras en 2025? / Winning party of Honduras' 2025 legis. election? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• ¿Partido ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de Honduras en 2025? / Winning party of Honduras' 2025 pres. election? — closes 2026-01-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant be fully shut down at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:00 UTC
• By 2026, will a "nonsocial media app" exclusively serving AI-generated shortform content reach one million DAU? — closes 2026-01-01 06:00 UTC
• Is slowing down AGI good for AI safety? [resolves to poll] — closes 2026-01-01 06:00 UTC
• Is RLHF good for AI safety? [resolves to poll] — closes 2026-01-01 06:00 UTC
• Will the United States' inflation rate be above 3% in 2023, 2024, and 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:00 UTC
• Will there be a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:00 UTC
• Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing gay pornography video of Elon Musk having sex with Peter Thiel by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:01 UTC
• Who will be the next Tumbles to tumble? — closes 2026-01-01 06:16 UTC
• By 2026, will a popular video game company announce the use of AI-based steganography to hide Easter eggs? — closes 2026-01-01 06:29 UTC
• Will there be another referendum in Australia on any issue before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:29 UTC
• Is Shamrock An Impure Celestial Dragon? — closes 2026-01-01 06:41 UTC
• Will Apple face any non-monetary consequences in United States of America v. Apple Inc.? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Openai announce, or perform, a test-run of their agi-collaboration clause before Dec 31st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Grok 4 before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Where will I decide to move by end of year? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Utah will alter its government in 2025 to make a new office in charge of elections and remove it from the Lt. Governor — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the Federal EV tax credit be repealed in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Algorithmica receive more content before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• By when will New Glenn flight 2 launch? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden enter an assisted living situation before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will General Relativity be overturned as our best understanding of large-scale physics before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will ChatGPT be able to consistently create images of a centaur by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• What will be the outcome of the Cards Against Humanity Lawsuit against SpaceX? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the End Kidney Deaths Act or similar legislation providing at least $25k to kidney donors pass in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of at least one count of human trafficking? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will any US Walmart store be unionized before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Who Will the Last Strawhat Be? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Weiss/Taibbi/Schellenberger will offer a Mea Culpa on the twitter Files before End of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will there be American soldiers in Iran before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• PlayStation 5 Pro Mega-Market [Multiple Choice] — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Laura Loomer have a baby or be pregnant by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Astrobotic's Griffin Lander land (mostly successfully) on the moon? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will ULA be sold, and to whom, by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• 2025 Death Pool — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will an Elon Musk company ban Apple devices before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the Mormon church give the priesthood to women before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Gut microbes (some strains) have recently evolved to make their host hungry, as a response to cheap food availability — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be interviewed by Jon Stewart in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the Mana Shop ever go on sale in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Which accessory for the Voyager keyboard will ZSA release in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Tory Bruno continue as ULA CEO through the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will TSLA close below $114 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• "Will the World Health Organization officially declare H5N1 a pandemic before December 31st 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Chris Chan have a son? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump say the phrase "brainwashed by A.I." by December 26th, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will a billionaire die in a rocket related incident before the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will I get to 1000 Elo rapid rating on chess.com in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Cameroon decriminalize homosexuality before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• California will reform CEQA to make it easier to develop within the state before EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will a manned mission successfully land on the moon before December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Fed funds rate below 3% by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will an electric vehicle containing a Sila Nanotechnologies >10% silicon anode be commercially available by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Is Candace Owens lying about her student loans being over 6 figures and/or misrepresenting her family financial history? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Rolling Stone be out of Business by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will 'Vel2Go' cheese packets be available for sale at the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Which tariffs will Trump introduce in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• In 2025, who will have the better percentage change in Vehicle Deliveries, Tesla or Rivian — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Best decade in American history in the last 125 years — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be tried for treason before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will a self driving car company operate in winter in a city that regularly gets snow by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Given who wins the US election, will there be American soldiers in Iran before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will a commercially available household cleaning robot be released by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Chick-fil-A restore its fries recipe in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will WeWork successfully emerge from bankruptcy and produce a profit by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the US conduct military operations in Mexico by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the US ban AI models produced in China in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Intuitively, without overthinking, are claims by X user @Kabamur_taygeta resonating with you at a soul level? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• How many government employees will Trump and Elon cut in 2025? [Kalshi] — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the two US citizens involved in the Iranian plot to kill Donald Trump be convicted? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Another city will leave the Unified Police District in Salt Lake County before 12/31/2025 — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Destiny reach 1 Million subs by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Taiwan be Taiwan in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will any of the SpaceX Kuiper launches experience a launch failure? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will it be shown that the US has space-based weapons by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• The First Tesla with Unsupervised FSD will... — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Musk still be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will AI wipe out humanity before Christ returns? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Armand Domalewski Accuse Me Of Faking Dissociative Identity Disorder? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Rod Ziolkowski threaten me with a lawsuit by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will I enjoy Hollow Knight: Silksong more than the original game? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will PGA Tour and LIV Golf reach a compromise settlement in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will a Democrat President be indicted for crimes they allegedly committed as President? If so, when? — closes 2026-01-01 06:59 UTC
• Will there be a Jesus AI startup worth $20+ million by 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 07:01 UTC
• Will it appear that the openai.com GPT-4.5 turbo blogpost that appeared in DuckDuckGo results was real? — closes 2026-01-01 07:28 UTC
• Will Apple Airpods have EEG based BCI _control_ features by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:42 UTC
• Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Samuel Knoche about college enrollment levels? — closes 2026-01-01 07:55 UTC
• Does the US Federal Government spend 1% of its budget on dialysis? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• End of the Streaming Wars: Which will be the first streamer to die? 📺 🖥️ 🎥 ⚔️ 🪦 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a Halo title be announced for PS5 before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will bitcoin go below $50,000 before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I get in a serious car accident by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver, according to YouGov? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• 400-point pwn solved by an LLM by 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an integration for guesstimate/squigglehub to Anthropic Claude's Model Context Protocol (MCP) exist by EOY2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which musicians will release studio albums in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI call scheduling become widely used in US professional services by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will James Dewey Watson die in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the US ban feeding chicken shit to cows or pigs in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a coalition of forces from Arab countries attack Israel before the end of Israel's current campaign in Gaza? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will GPT-5 be released? (2025) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Deger Turan still be CEO/head of Metaculus by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will some U.S. actors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will earbud "transparent mode" be able to selectively mute/passthru certain sounds by 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will some U.S. artists be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk believe and state publicly that buying twitter was a mistake, by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Evergrande liquidation be completed by EoY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I get in a serious car accident by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If Donald Trump wins the election, will he serve time in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Bitcoin $125K in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump assert an insanity or diminished capacity defense in any of his criminal cases by December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Mark Zuckerberg cease to be CEO of Meta before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What hardware will GPT-5 be trained on? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Where will president travel in 2025? 61x Y/N bet independently. Lots of mana lying here — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Why don't you place more limit orders? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What percentage of his $340m claim will John Cheeks win from Powerball? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Rebecca Wang (@rbccawang) at Stanford attend Hereticon2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will some U.S. investment bankers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the next Pokemon game come out on the Switch 2? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Trolley Problem - Fat Man Variation — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I test positive for COVID by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Netanyahu visit the US again before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Traveler’s still insure Turo rentals at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the H-1B country caps be raised or eliminated in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the CHIPS Act be repealed in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many YouTube views will the peak AXRP video get in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Tesla Roadster be able to go 0-60 in less than a second? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Bitcoin $240K in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Investment Corporation of Dubai hold the largest PE allocation by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Hunter Biden still be alive on December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Did OpenAI transcribe Youtube videos to train a GPT model as claimed by NYT? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden live to 90? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will some U.S. accountants be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What self-driving level SAE will Telsa self-driving be at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service/technology be sold or abandoned by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a Silicon Valley company be the target of a domestic terrorism attack by end 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will California pass an AI Safety bill in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I need to type and move the mouse while editing code at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a 2nd summer camp held in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If polled in 2025, will the majority of Manifold users say this site has become their primary social media platform? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a FOIA request reveal that Kalshi was primarily responsible for CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the cybertruck kill a pedestrian by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be an AI ballot measure in California in 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ludo Studios release another episode of “Bluey" after Season 3 Episode 50, "Surprise"? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will Rewind.ai's valuation be at the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 resolve this market? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• The Political Fate of Elon — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who leaked information to Simmi? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Jessie Eisenberg plays Sam Altman in any dramatic production by end 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Georgia indictment of Donald Trump actually go to trial? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Putin claims a clip is fake that Western media claim is real before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a healthy Northern White Rhino be born by end of year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If April does X will she think it was a great idea in retrospect? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the price of a Costco Hot Dog exceed $1.50 by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I launch a shitcoin in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the "Secondary Private Equity" group on Manifold be featured / mentioned in Secondaries Investor by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk change the name of “Twitter / X” again by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the US "vibecession" continue through all of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I boulder outdoors by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• I’m trying Codebuff AI for a hackathon to create a website idea I had that I previously gave up on. What will happen? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifest 2025 be hosted at Lighthaven? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Joseph Suarez (@jsuarez) win an emergent ventures grant by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Marc Benioff be sole CEO of Salesforce at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which Country/Area Will the Gen10 Pokemon Games be Based On? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the California Forever's EIR be submitted by EoY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Claude MCP have equivalent functionality to a Claude Computer Use module by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which AI companies will release a SoTA LLM on AidanBench in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Truth Social go bankrupt before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Facebook Dating still exist by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a Pioneer Horizons set by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a second season of Mr. and Mrs. Smith (TV series)? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I be part of a wedding party before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will VLXXHub become Vietnam's #1 streaming service by total watch hours by December 31st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenOffice.org be officially declared obsolete/unmaintained/archived by the Apache Foundation in 2024/2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which of these predictions from @tanya_sabrinaaa will come true in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• United Auto Workers Membership increases above 450k (390k in 9/23) before end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which company will have the leading text-to-speech market share in Dec 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many people will be deported from the US under Alien Enemies Act authority in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will bram Cohen get a girlfriend in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the 1Day Sooner Safe Air Research Alliance be active in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Bitcoin $140K in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a humanoid AGI be used in a public setting by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis Ricon (JLR!!!!!!) have a birthday party in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Bitcoin $120K in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1 in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Stephen Pinker come to Hereticon 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025, will the US praise China's efforts to combat the fentanyl crisis? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will FromSoftware Inc release a new game before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will real 75th percentile software engineer comp be higher than today in 2025 in The Bay Area — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• WILL JOSE LUIS RICON ATTEND LESS ONLINE 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Figma IPO before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I attend a large organized event that has a requirement intended to prevent a specific disease other than COVID-19 before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Greenland hold an independence referendum in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ilya Sutskever still work at SSI at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Should Ross Ulbricht have been pardoned? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of... — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025, will any AI beat Pokemon Emerald Version without human assistance? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Should Elon Musk be celebrity roasted? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Mark Zuckerberg release another song on Spotify before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any large company leave the United States because of AI regulations? (2025) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Karen Bass be the Mayor of Los Angeles on December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will someone convince me of ANYTHING that contradicts my (essentially mainstream) knowledge of COVID before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Amazon adds Bitcoin to B/S in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Adelyn Moore appear in at least 1 podcast in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Google still actively lead and manage the Bazel build system by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Logan Thrasher Collins win an emergent ventures (EV) grant by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Delayed Social Security payments to at least 100,000 people before December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will two twitter bots get in an argument with each other before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a COVID-19 variant cause a new scare and intermittent lockdowns in multiple countries by end 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will lead the AGI race end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a 3x3 magic square of distinct perfect square numbers be proven impossible by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will off shore wind turbines be found responsible for a whale death before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will another country follow El Salvador in adopting Bitcoin as legal tender by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will appear in the Chapter 4 Dark World? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Tether collapse before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which Melee players will reach top 8 at a Major during 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Were there at least 100 deaths in the Gaza al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Bob Iger cease to be CEO of Disney before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I get a job in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Section 174 tax changes be reversed in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the best score (5/5 reliability) on ZeroBench by December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will San Francisco in 2025 be significantly safer than in 2022? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Next US government shutdown (with furlough) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Crash of Learjet 55 - NTSB's determined primary cause — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be any children born in 2025 in the US, that do not receive the option of birthright citizenship? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Foresight vision weekend 2025 serve more than >50% of its food in plastic-free containers? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be my most popular market of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold provide native functionality for prediction competitions? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan have another child before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models be priced at less than $1,500 by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump and/or MAGA be satirized in GTA VI? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Nod be able to publish a model of the covid outbreak in Wuhan, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I live to see 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Nintendo win their patent infringement lawsuit against Palworld / Pocketpair? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If @Celene takes estrogen, will she consider it to have a positive effect, neutral effect, or negative effect? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Meta’s stock split before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will IShowSpeed race Sha'Carri Richardson by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Karen Bass be recalled as mayor of Los Angeles before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the government bail out multifamily apartment developers or REITs by 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will entropy-based sampling improve Llama3.1 on reasoning benchmarks in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will Europa Universalis 5 be released? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Tim Cook cease to be CEO of Apple before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI get bronze on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Manifest conference reoccur in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Bitcoin Hashrate at end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a Vibecamp in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI generate realistic video of animal movement before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will X (fka Twitter) be sued by the US government for refusing to remove content by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk appear on a Spotify song before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the iPhone 17 Pro have 5 buttons? 🍎📱5️⃣ — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will entropix/entropy-baed sampling hold up well in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many units of Project Digits will Nvidia sell by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will @saulmunn beat me at sock wrestling in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many manifold users would participate in a daily guessing game? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the greatest storm scale value of a mechanic printed on a new standard-legal card before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will both Apple and Google's 2025 flagship phones use Silicon Carbon batteries? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What is in Gwern’s complete theory of Evangelion? [Add answers] — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Most valuable company at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will George of (https://epistem.ink/) win an emergent ventures (EV) grant by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will 2025 be the warmest year on record? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which Proofnik will get the "Trustworthy. ish." badge next? [now with the good multiple-choice market type] — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Iran nuke Israel before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold be subject to a DDoS attack before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If I don't abandon the site and manifold still exists, I'll have 350k mana in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Kanye West get divorced and remarried by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Fate/EXTRA Record release in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which Melee players will win a major tournament during 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a judge to order Google broken up? (Regardless of any appeal outcome) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025, humans from how many nations will have walked on the Moon? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which AI companies will release a top-scoring LLM on the Scale AI Coding benchmark in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold curate ranked markets in any league in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Americans rate the economy positively before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will I reach 1 million mana of profits? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Treasury shuts off Congressionally authorized payments to Department of Education by December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Non-pro Apple Vision before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Netherlands contribute €180 million to the Global Fund during the 2023-2025 period, as pledged in 2022? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Justin Bieber announces a second child before the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Chinese government announce a equivalent AI project to Stargate in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which new cities will Waymo serve at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will happen with the recent lawsuits by major record labels against AI music startups? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Tesla's charging network - what will the interoperability status be at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will some U.S. consultants be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a US government shutdown in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will TLC announce “DILF Manor” by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Bill C-64 "An act respecting pharmacare" pass in Canada before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Eli Weinstein, previously pardoned by Trump, go to prison for fraud again by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be true about the Francis Scott Key bridge disaster by 2025? (Add Your Own Answer) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an artist release a diss track about Elon Musk? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will 20+ people die in anti-Trump protests in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will https://distill.pub/ publish >=2 new articles in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta release an AI chatbot that has ads in the responses in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Salesforce stop hiring software engineers in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will more than 100 people in NYC get Ebola in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be quoted at a White House press briefing again by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will it be proven that there are finitely many different 3x3 magic squares of distinct perfect squares by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What actor will play SBF in the first FTX show/movie released? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Sid Mani (ftlsid.com) win an Emergent Ventures fellowship by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be another Gaza ceasefire before April 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will "Mistral-medium" weights be available? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will DOGECOIN hit 1$ next year ? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many times will I have to email the ___ CEO before he lets me re-interview? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Official emoji of the bisexual flag by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Richard Craib's Numerai achieve a market cap of $1 billion before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will @BasedBeffJezos lose at least 15 lbs of weight between 2024 and EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Claude Opus 3.x Release Date — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which 2024 f2 drivers will be promoted to f1 in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• In how many months will I get a job? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Aimee Lou Wood be in a SKIMS ad in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Bitcoin $200K in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Beyond Meat go bankrupt in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Bitcoin $160K in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I place top 12 in Masters league in any season in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will YouTube limit unlimited free uploading of videos by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I continue to live in SF between market creation and end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Blackstone IX hit its fundraising target of $30B? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Cohere AI be acquired or cease operating before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Bitcoin $150K in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Davide Radaelli win an emergent ventures (EV) grant by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Jamie Dimon cease to be CEO of JPMorgan Chase before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a 1m+ bird flu outbreak in humans in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Mark Zuckerberg get divorced in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon sell X before the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Gunnerkrigg Court end by 2025-12-31? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What songs will appear on the radio in Grand Theft Auto VI at release? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will lead the Palestinian Authority after Mahmoud Abbas? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Rootclaim debate covid origins a second time? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be fewer than 2 Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew in December 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will MissCriskle’s Twilight - Sims 2 be completed before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be able to come up with a carefully strategic plan for the game of Colonel Blotto? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the ARC Prize Foundation succeed at making a new benchmark that is easy for humans but still hard for the best AIs? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I be able to complete a 10+ hour trip via self-driving car by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Bernie Sanders cease to be a US Senator before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI release a Devin competitor in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Waymo give public driverless rides on a freeway in the SF Bay Area by the end of 2025? [description] — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to San Francisco (or back) by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If Biden had stayed in the race, how would he have done against Trump? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Laurence Ion spend more than $30k on a personal assistant for FY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will we get a new version of Visual Studio by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will BlueSky have a feature comparable to X's "Community Notes" feature by EoY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Apple release another Vision product in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a self-driving taxi service be cheaper than an Uber ride (with a driver) to the same location on 2025-12-31 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be featured on a Grimes song by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will John Oliver talk about on his show? [Mega Market] — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Linda Yaccarino step down as X (f.k.a. Twitter) CEO before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Russian civilians who provide signatures to get Boris Nadezhdin on the ballot suffer government reprisal? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will methoxetamine (MXE) be widely available again on darknets (or any site) by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a "liquidity event" for Figma by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Top OSWorld score in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which of the following ACX Grants Impact Certificates will be bought back at a higher value than they were sold for? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be true about GPT-5? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Ozempic shortage be resolved on December 31st, 2025 according to the FDA? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a major photo-hosting site (google photos, imgur, flickr) add an "animate image" (like pika.art) by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will 50%+ of the content in my work emails be written by AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the for-profit branch of Cavendish Labs IPO before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Bakkt declare bankruptcy before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI autocreate AOE2/AOE4/Total War campaign scenarios from HistoryMarche/Kings and Generals videos by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will real 75th percentile software engineer comp be higher than today in 2025 in the US — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many episodes will the GD politics podcast put out in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Klarna do a direct listing in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Did Rich Lowry say "Haitian niggers" while being interviewed by Megyn Kelly? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I [Jose Luis Ricon] jhana in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• H5N1 pandemic occurs before 2026, and the case fatality rate is <5% — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Strava add scuba and/or free diving to their app? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Sam Altman right about AGI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Top FrontierMath score in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Canada implement a national pharmacare program before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump say "skibidi"? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an mRNA HIV vaccine pass Phase 2 trials by 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will russia have a new president by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will SBF pardon Biden? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• NTSB's determined primary cause of the collision between American Eagle Flight 5342 and a military Black Hawk helicopter — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will 50%+ of the Top Creators on the Manifold leaderboard by end of 2025 have 20K or more followers on their Twitter accounts? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Wendy's introduce surge pricing by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a PS5 Pro cost 1K USD before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will California formally abolish the death penalty by end of year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the ACX 2025 prediction contest? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Hermeus Quarterhorse Mk 1 test vehicle achieve remote takeoff and landing? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Israel soft land a probe on the moon before the end of 2025? (Including private companies) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will we find out by 2026 that OpenAI abandoned an attempt to train GPT-5? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a major spike in protests in the US in 2025 (comparable to the 2020 George Floyd protests)? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will George Santos spend any time in prison? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin hit $240K before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will members of the 2024 Chinese Olympic swim team be found to have been doping? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What is Elon's Motivation for Participating in DOGE? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any of @Mira 's pets appear on the Dwarkesh Podcast by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I believe in 1 year that DeepSeek R1 was substantially trained via distillation of a US model? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will ZINC000443438219 (SERT inhibitor from doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.13.495991) be widely available online by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman raise at least one trillion dollars for an AI project? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Congress extend lower tax rates for individuals by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will Redox OS support USB? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be #1 most viewed Wikipedia article of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Taliban represent Afghanistan at the United Nations before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will TSLA outperform the S&P 500 over 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I watch more movies in theatres in 2025 than I did in 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ken Jennings still hold the record for most highest Jeopardy winnings (regular season play) at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When Will Reputation (Taylor's Version) Be Released by Taylor Swift? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 5th badge (Soul Badge) from Koga? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Tesla have robots for sale by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a member of United States House of Representatives die in 2025 (again) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will North Korea officially declare war on another country by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the board game The Queen's Dilemma be delivered by Dec 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will be the next James Bond / 007? (775Ṁ subsidy) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Tesla's Dojo AI computer be available for public use before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025, will WGA writers be widely agreed to have worse job prospects/compensation due to AI screenwriting? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Jetson sell >1000 ONE units by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Tesla achieve unsupervised FSD in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Imbue (AI startup) be acquired or cease operating before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the SEC bring an enforcement action against OpenAI or its executives, in connection with Altman firing before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift announce her engagement (vs. it leaking)? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Barbenheimer movie be commercially available by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Republican approval of the economy skyrocket to 80%+ in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Zoox give public driverless rides somewhere in the US before the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Haiti hold an election before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the US and China achieve a deal for 0% reciprocal tariffs by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Is the current bird flu strain man-made? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Elon Musk gains grandchild in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will appear in the Chapter 3 Dark World? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold create functionality for market creators to pin key markets on their profile? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI main office require bomb scanners by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Black Mirror Season 7 average ≥7.0 on IMDB, 30 days after release? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will 2025 be a big year for jazz? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Larry the Cat outlast Keir Starmer’s Prime Minister tenure? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will PM2.5 levels of Toronto in 2025 be higher than those of 2023? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin Outperform Altcoins in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I Pass the JLPT N1 by December 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Destiny be convicted of a felony related to the leaked audio/video drama? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine join the EU by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ozzie Gooen get a 64GB RAM Macbook Pro by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• JFK files declassified - maybe his head just did that — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I Experience a Material Change in Living Situation Due to the Executive Order on the Presidio Trust by End of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Crash of Learjet 55 - NTSB's determined cause(s) - Multichoice FFA — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Circle's USDC surpass Tether's USDT by market cap before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will vegan cheese with casein be in Oregon grocery stores before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the cover of @RichardHanania 's new book on elite human capital have a trans woman on it? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Open AI release a model that can reliably compute a 20 digits multiplication correctly in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will LessOnline 2025 and Manifest 2025 be within two weeks of each other? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• The probability of extremely good AGI outcomes eg. rapid human flourishing will be >24% in next AI experts survey — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• BOA launches USD stablecoin in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the best performance on EnigmaEval by December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Israel annex any part of Lebanon by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Group managers ever have to pay a Mana price to manage a Manifold group? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI avatar or virtual entity be appointed as White House Press Secretary before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the International Space Station be functional and crewed in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will Hytale release? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there by a new US work visa program created in 2025? (Excl Gold Cards) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Congress extend or increase Child Tax Credit by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Canada have an AI Safety Institute before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Washington state assault weapons ban be struck down? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift do “Billionaire Shit”? 👸💰💸 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I move by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Marvel release exact 3 movies in theatres in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any social media app surpass Facebook, Youtube, Instagram, or TikTok in US monthly active users by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will the result of Magnus vs the World be? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Elon Musk alive at the end of day on December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the top 10 most viewed Wikipedia articles of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a girl be discovered to have a world-defining crush on Jose Luis Ricon by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will it be proven that NK soldiers are "Gorging" on Adult Content? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I break a bone by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will some U.S. video game designers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I [Jose] find a gf before end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Ukraine warcasting megamarket — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Detroit mayoral election? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I weigh more than 180 lbs at the end of FY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Tesla's market share of EVs sold in the US be above 50% in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Did US real median household income increase in 2022? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will TikTok be available to US users in Apple and/or Google's official app store on December 31st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be taxes on "unrealized" capital gains in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will be ranked number 1 in the 2025 Super Smash Bros. Melee Rankings? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI be sued (with standing) for using transcribed YouTube videos for GPT before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the US provide more aid to Ukraine in 2025 vs 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Waymo support playing from Spotify without the Google Assistant app before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI be dissolved at any point by end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I see Ray Chen perform? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What company will Amazon buy next for at least $1B? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ozzie Gooen make more than $150k a year for FY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon musk delete more then 20 tweets pre2017 in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• will Elon Musk/The Foundation have a university in Austin, Texas by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be at least 1000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1 in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will someone create a https://squigglehub.org/ai market on GLP-1 agonists/semaglutide by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What % of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Waymo give public *driverless* rides to/from SFO airport pickup/dropoff by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I believe 2025 is a bigger news year than 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What names on Epstein‘s guest list will lead to indictment? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Gulf of Mexico/America label change on Google Maps by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Taylor Swift will announce an engagement before a pregnancy — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) lose more than 50% of its employees between EOY2024 and EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Warren Buffett cease to be CEO of Berkshire Hathaway before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many parameters does the OpenAI Sora model unveiled in February 2024 have? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be at least a tiny bit strategic at the "Numbers Game"? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Should most absolute/categorical rules be replaced with pigouvian taxes? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will someone create a mcp for Quora via Claude in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be an Apple Vision product with Apple Intelligence by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an effective accelerationist (e/acc) be in an important AI policy role for the White House before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Vanguard allow users to buy iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) or other spot cryptocurrency ETF's before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the documentary about the Soule-Reeves family's auction-based decisions see the light of day by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold hire me in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• In Oldschool Runescape, will the world map keep the black box in the Kharidian Desert through the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• CEO Survivor: Which CEO will last the longest in their role? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will some U.S. nurses be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a Waymo skit on SNL in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis Ricon be a playable character in a playable version of Street Fighter by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Most of the microplastic comes from tires and industrial sources. Which will first be targeted by ban legislation? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be true about Christopher Nolan’s next film? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Eliezer Yudkowsky report it was worth reading Silent Partner, Unfinished Business, conditional on reading it? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will The Department Of Government Efficiency audit Fort Knox and it's Gold Reserves before the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I be a vendor at over 25 events next year? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the most popular movie of 2025 on Letterboxd? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What year will Haunted Chocolatier, a game by ConcernedApe, be released? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any US state shut down all of its international airports for any length of time by end 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump verbally mention “Xiaohongshu” by name in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will nikola jurkovic have a higher Brier score than Ozzie Gooen on EITHER manifold or metaculus for year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the highest percent of boys interacting with "AI girlfriends/waifus" come from an East Asian country by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will SquiggleAI get Cauchy Distributions by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will more Americans support the Black Lives Matter movement than oppose it before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold create a way to view all USD --> Mana transactions for one's own profile? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Texas HB 1709 / TRAIGA (regulating AI) become law in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What dietary interventions will I be convinced to try for at least 4 months by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI get silver on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• By end of 2025, will addiction to AI-generated content be a thing? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold have more than 1445 active traders on any day in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will construction of the Wallis Annenberg Wildlife Crossing over US 101 be finished before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from LAX airport by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will DeepSeek go on Dwarkesh Podcast in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 not be terrible at the "Numbers Game"? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Brad English raise at least $1million for a startup by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will at least one more murder be linked to the Zizian cult? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will China ban iPhones before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Apple acquire Snap in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• ⛹️🏟️ After Dartmouth Men’s basketball, will more student athletes unionize by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift get married by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI be acquired by another company the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will more than one million people be deported from the United States in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the price of Nintendo Switch Online increase in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If I switch to using Supabase, will anything change and seriously break my script within the next three months? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many episodes of AXRP will I release in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will brute force search work to find a solution for this calendar puzzle? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the US AI Safety Institute be rebranded as the AI Security Institute by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which industries of the US stock market will outperform the SPDR S&P 500 Trust in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis Ricon be a playable character in a playable version of Street Fighter by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Most of the microplastic comes from tires and industrial sources. Which will first be targeted by ban legislation? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be true about Christopher Nolan’s next film? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many parameters does the OpenAI Sora model unveiled in February 2024 have? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will IShowSpeed race Sha'Carri Richardson by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be evidence in 2025 that in April 2023, OpenAI had a GPT-4.5 or higher model? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Does the US Federal Government spend 1% of its budget on dialysis? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Jimmy Apples 🍎/acc be doxx'd by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I be a vendor at over 25 events next year? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Laurence Ion spend more than $30k on a personal assistant for FY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any US state shut down all of its international airports for any length of time by end 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I watch more movies in theatres in 2025 than I did in 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will nikola jurkovic have a higher Brier score than Ozzie Gooen on EITHER manifold or metaculus for year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the US AI Safety Institute be rebranded as the AI Security Institute by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will SquiggleAI get Cauchy Distributions by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Trump invite the Premier of Alberta into Mar de Lago or the WhiteHouse by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will PM2.5 levels of Toronto in 2025 be higher than those of 2023? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI raise $1+ billion from SoftBank before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What dietary interventions will I be convinced to try for at least 4 months by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will 50%+ of the top market creators on Manifold as of Jan 2023 be displaced from the Top 20 list by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold have more than 1445 active traders on any day in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from LAX airport by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden visit Donald Trump in federal prison by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be true about Justin Trudeau's next partner? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin Outperform Altcoins in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Dread still exist by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Microsoft Copilot continue to rely primarily on OpenAI foundation models at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Brad English raise at least $1million for a startup by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will China ban iPhones before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Joseph Suarez (@jsuarez) win an emergent ventures grant by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Mark Zuckerberg release another song on Spotify before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many manifold users would participate in a daily guessing game? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Jose Luis Ricon (JLR!!!!!!) have a birthday party in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will more than one million people be deported from the United States in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Amazon adds Bitcoin to B/S in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the price of Nintendo Switch Online increase in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold be subject to a DDoS attack before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ozzie Gooen get a 64GB RAM Macbook Pro by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an artist release a diss track about Elon Musk? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Bill C-64 "An act respecting pharmacare" pass in Canada before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will someone create a mcp for Quora via Claude in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Claude MCP have equivalent functionality to a Claude Computer Use module by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• WILL HENRY(@ARITHMOQUINE) COME TO HERETICON2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Trump and Loomer relationship by Dec 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the CHIPS Act be repealed in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will entropix/entropy-baed sampling hold up well in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Top FrontierMath score in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What is your P(doom)? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from SF to the Palo Alto area or back by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will someone release a Wan2.1 model finetuned on anthro whales? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• ISS astronauts die in space before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will both Apple and Google's 2025 flagship phones use Silicon Carbon batteries? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold create the functionality to create "drafts" of one's in-progress markets and posts? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the most popular movie of 2025 on Letterboxd? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• will the newly-FDA-approved treatments for Sickle Cell Disease be accessible by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Warren Buffett cease to be CEO of Berkshire Hathaway before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the US government default on its debt by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will chatting with chatbots be seen as worse than video games for kids by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will brute force search work to find a solution for this calendar puzzle? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will we figure out how to CRISPR/Fanzor genes into an exotic bird (any bird that isn't ducks/chickens) by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I beat Lindsay in a 4 mile race? (minute delay) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If Fort Knox is audited by The Department Of Government Efficiency this year (2025), What will they find? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump verbally mention “Xiaohongshu” by name in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Mr Beast make a serious attempt to buy TikTok? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any US state withhold payments to the federal government before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will be Prime Minister of Canada after Mark Carney? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 4th badge (Rainbow Badge) from Erika? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be an Apple Vision product with Apple Intelligence by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk get control over TikTok in the US before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Nintendo win their patent infringement lawsuit against Palworld / Pocketpair? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Samo Burja find a new girlfriend by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a Pioneer Horizons set by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which AI companies will release a SoTA LLM on AidanBench in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What year will Haunted Chocolatier, a game by ConcernedApe, be released? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I Pass the JLPT N1 by December 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Destiny be Aella's baby daddy by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan have another child before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I have found a website which I consider a compelling Google search alternative by 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If @Celene takes estrogen, will she consider it to have a positive effect, neutral effect, or negative effect? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• WILL JOSE LUIS RICON ATTEND LESS ONLINE 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which fighter will become a UFC champion in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• ICE Assistant Chief Counsel James Rodden, "GlomarResponder," leaves role/is fired before December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Gwern cats move to SF by Eoy2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a new crypto memecoin reach $100 billion in market cap in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any social media app surpass Facebook, Youtube, Instagram, or TikTok in US monthly active users by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Marc with a q reach his target weight of 170lbs by end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Elon Musk charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Destiny be convicted of a felony related to the leaked audio/video drama? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Destiny talk to Candace Owens (again) before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will The Department Of Government Efficiency audit Fort Knox and it's Gold Reserves before the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Kanye West get divorced and remarried by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will California formally abolish the death penalty by end of year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Trump say that bitcoin is the new oil in any public statement? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold provide native functionality for prediction competitions? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Sundar Pichai cease to be CEO of Alphabet before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will some U.S. lawyers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be at least 1000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I have gone to a Star Trek convention by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be true about GPT-5? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will VEO2 be revealed to be a diffusion-based model? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Trump sign a deal with Ukraine providing military support in exchange for rare earths by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold hire me in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Microsoft adds Bitcoin to B/S in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will James or Austin return to Manifold before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will lead the AGI race end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will 50%+ of the content in my work emails be written by AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I find any serious bugs in my website's API within a week of release? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many people will be deported from the US under Alien Enemies Act authority in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will Rewind.ai's valuation be at the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Netanyahu visit the US again before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Now Pharmaceuticals package any pills in a non-plastic container by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models be priced at less than $1,000 by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Trolley Problem - Fat Man Variation — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Anthropic be the best on AI safety among major AI labs at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Tesla rolls out SAE3+ driving mode only for a model's Hardware 4+ cars by end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will we get a new version of Visual Studio by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan publicly announce their separation or divorce before January 1, 2026?​​​​​​​​​​​ — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I run a ultramarathon by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many non-RFND MAID deaths will there be in Canada in 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI get bronze on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If Keith Wilson is Portland (OR)'s mayor, will he succeed in cutting unsheltered homelessness by >80% by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the for-profit branch of Cavendish Labs IPO before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which Melee players will be in the top 10 of the 2025 year end rankings? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Waymo give public *driverless* rides to/from SFO airport pickup/dropoff by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• US Google Trends: Which of these keywords will surpass their 2024 peak in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Strava add scuba and/or free diving to their app? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a PS5 Pro cost 1K USD before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman or Greg Brockman join a Elon Musk AI lab? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If Greenland holds an independence referendum in 2025, will it vote for independence? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will either of the men's 1500m or mile run world records be broken in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• United Auto Workers Membership increases above 450k (390k in 9/23) before end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will anyone from curie.bio attend foresight vision weekend 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will San Francisco in 2025 be significantly safer than in 2022? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will John Thune stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If I write an encyclopedia of bad AI arguments, will people seem to find it useful? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Destiny talk to Jordan Peterson (again) before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Trump eliminates daylight savings in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will at least one more murder be linked to the Zizian cult? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will @BasedBeffJezos lose at least 15 lbs of weight between 2024 and EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• At EOY 2025, will ByteDance own the American version of TikTok? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI generate realistic video of animal movement before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold Introduce Parlays by the End of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Most valuable company at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which of these career paths will 80,000 Hours list as the highest-impact they've identified at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Billie Eilish release a song without Finneas’ production by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Vanguard allow users to buy iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) or other spot cryptocurrency ETF's before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will X (fka Twitter) be sued by the US government for refusing to remove content by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be able to come up with a carefully strategic plan for the game of Colonel Blotto? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will GPT-5's context size be? (2025) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a ban on distribution of deepfakes of public persons in the US by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden live to 90? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI autocreate AOE2/AOE4/Total War campaign scenarios from HistoryMarche/Kings and Generals videos by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will deepfates be assassinated before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Russian civilians who provide signatures to get Boris Nadezhdin on the ballot suffer government reprisal? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a "liquidity event" for Figma by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will DeepSeek R2 be open source? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Eli Weinstein, previously pardoned by Trump, go to prison for fraud again by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump be impeached in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• New country buys Bitcoin in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will James Holzhauer still hold the record for the highest single Jeopardy game winnings at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a MrBeast publish a YouTube video in which he does malaria prevention philanthropy before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Should most absolute/categorical rules be replaced with pigouvian taxes? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Bitcoin $180K in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ada Nguyen win an emergent ventures grant by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Fauci convicted in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a Halo title be announced for PS5 before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the cover of @RichardHanania 's new book on elite human capital have a trans woman on it? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Can anti-cavity oral probiotics spread directly between people via mouth-to-mouth contact? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Evan Vucci's photograph of Trump pumping his fist be at least a finalist for a Pulitzer? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• United Auto Workers Membership decreases to below 350k (390k in 9/23) before end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold have real money markets with at least 1% of the active liquidity of Polymarket by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I visit Sweden in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will both Reputation (Taylor’s Version) and Taylor Swift (Taylor’s Version) release in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I think MCP servers are a big deal at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI be acquired by another company the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Destiny attend Minds Fest again before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Amouranth's home invasion be known to have been falsified by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• In what country will White Lotus Season 4 be based? [official announcement] — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will Redox OS support USB? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• [Inverting Resolutions] What would be true in a world where the Russo-Ukrainian War is over by end 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will members of the 2024 Chinese Olympic swim team be found to have been doping? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service/technology be sold or abandoned by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will 20+ people die in anti-Trump protests in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I see Ray Chen perform? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be more than one million new HIV infections globally in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Bureau of Labor Statistics public reports manipulated for political purposes by end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When Will Reputation (Taylor's Version) Be Released by Taylor Swift? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Chuck Schumer stop being Senate Democratic Leader before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Figma IPO before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenOffice.org be officially declared obsolete/unmaintained/archived by the Apache Foundation in 2024/2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Andy Jassy cease to be CEO of Amazon before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will TLC announce “DILF Manor” by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which country will Jackson Hinkle's next girlfriend be from? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Relativity Space Fails by December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a US recession by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Blackstone IX hit its fundraising target of $30B? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a "No One Is Above the Law Amendment" be ratified by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I get a job in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Delayed Social Security payments to at least 100,000 people before December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which Big Tech stock will perform the best in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will some U.S. doctors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will "Mistral-medium" weights be available? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Congress extend or increase Child Tax Credit by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I be able to complete a 10+ hour trip via self-driving car by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many ML/AI-powered clinical diagnostic tests will become standard-of-care in the United States by April 21, 2033? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025, humans from how many nations will have walked on the Moon? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I reach JLPT N3 proficiency in Japanese by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I need to type and move the mouse while editing code at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will more total bookmarks be created in https://curius.app/ in 2025 than 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Bob Iger cease to be CEO of Disney before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Hermeus Quarterhorse Mk 1 test vehicle achieve remote takeoff and landing? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• will this tweet hold up: Sora will sign an exclusive deal with giant film production studios [read description] — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Inflation Reduction Act be repealed in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will >= 1 alignment researcher/paper cite "maximum diffusion reinforcement learning" as alignment-relevant in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Section 174 tax changes be reversed in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will appear in the Chapter 3 Dark World? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the documentary about the Soule-Reeves family's auction-based decisions see the light of day by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• will a STEM-focused K-12 opened by Elon Musk hold classes by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Putin get Pied before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• When will I be able to call a Waymo to get from the Oakland airport to Berkeley's campus? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• By end of 2025, will addiction to AI-generated content be a thing? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Newegg be delisted from Nasdaq before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which phone brand will win MKBHD's Phone of the Year Award 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Trump and Elon cut the Federal Budget by more than $1 Trillion/yr by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the Starship Flight 9 ship be caught? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an OpenAI model design an improved version of an existing drug in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Benjamin Ross Hoffman ever come to Hereticon 2025? (or at least be invited) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there still be a bi-directional center bike lane on Valencia Street in San Francisco at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• H5N1 pandemic occurs before 2026, and the case fatality rate is <5% — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Claude Opus 3.x Release Date — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Did US real median household income increase in 2022? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift get married by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be true about the effect of geoengineering on the planet by 2026? (Add your own answer) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will lighthaven be shut down in 2025 due to lack of funds? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the US execute over 3000 people in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Congress extend lower tax rates for individuals by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which Proofnik will get the "Trustworthy. ish." badge next? [now with the good multiple-choice market type] — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I be hospitalized overnight anytime before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will any of @Mira 's pets appear on the Dwarkesh Podcast by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI be dissolved at any point by end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will manifold allow us to donate Mana to charity at sticker price in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an mRNA HIV vaccine pass Phase 2 trials by 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be at least 100,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Group managers ever receive Mana payment for their services? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk change the name of “Twitter / X” again by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the US and China achieve a deal for 0% reciprocal tariffs by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will be ranked number 1 in the 2025 Super Smash Bros. Melee Rankings? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the top 10 grossing films in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• In 2025, how many large US chains will start programs or promotions targeted at people living in vehicles long-term? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be an AI culture war in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If Rootclaim/Saar analyze Al-Shifa Hospital, will they conclude it was used for "command and control activities"? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a company get sued for giving a human a captcha they can't solve? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• 400-point pwn solved by an LLM by 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many YouTube views will the peak AXRP video get in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman raise at least one trillion dollars for an AI project? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which sector of the US stock market (S&P 500) will perform the best in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be another peanut the squirrel by EOY 2025? (Mark Longo adopts another?) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Exodus have a better metacritic score than Starfield? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will the $/kWh price for battery cells be at the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Marc Benioff be sole CEO of Salesforce at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• If there is an UNSONG musical by EOY 2025, will Scott Alexander play the role of Uriel? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Hunter Biden still be alive on December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers) — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Iran nuke Israel before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025, will TikTok be banned in more countries than Twitter (X) and Telegram combined? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a fourth species proposed to be named after Donald Trump by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will my startup Retis Labs become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a brain-computer interface successfully restore speech in a patient with severe speech impairment? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI grifters find a new fad by end 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will AI call scheduling become widely used in US professional services by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• will Elon Musk/The Foundation have a university in Austin, Texas by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine join the EU by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Magnificent 7 below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will another country follow El Salvador in adopting Bitcoin as legal tender by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift announce her engagement (vs. it leaking)? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a high-profile power struggle at Anthropic before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• How many US Supreme Court justices will there be in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• will israel finish hamas in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• Which company will let me read a book while driving in a private car in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 07:59 UTC
• BIG-bench accuracy 75% #3: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Field of the Dead be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Dark Depths be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Rite of Flame be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Once Upon a Time be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• If I set up a Twitter account that posts a Magic: The Gathering rules question every day, will it have at least 750 followers a month later? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Magic: The Gathering still be being activly developed and printed in paper by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Great Furnace be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Tibalt's Trickery be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Splinter Twin be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will the first Google result for "MTG" still be Magic: The Gathering at the beginning of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Mental Misstep be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• If I set up a Twitter account that posts a Magic: The Gathering rules question every day, will it have at least 200 followers a month later? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Putnam Top 100 #2: Will any AI score in the top 100 Putnam scorers by start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• By 2026, will it be standard practice to sandbox SOTA LLMs? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Ponder be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will the Steve Kirsch/Rootclaim bet about COVID-19 vaccine deaths resolve to a tie? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will the Steve Kirsch/Rootclaim bet about COVID-19 vaccine deaths go through? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• What are some of the best educational games? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will CEA publicly apologize for their response to the Nick Bostrom scandal by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will there be drama caused by Manifold employees' ability to create free M$ by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Treasure Cruise be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• If someone accepts my offer to take their mask off on a plane for $20, will they follow though on keeping it off? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• If I write an article about how MTG buyers and sellers can use Manifold to keep themselves safe from scams, will at least 20 people join the site due to it? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Vault of Whispers be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Chrome Mox be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will GPT-5 have a rating of at least 2000 in chess? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Mycosynth Lattice be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• If the experiment in the Chinchilla paper is repeated by a credible actor before 2026, will the exponent in the data scaling term be greater than 0.32? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Memestiny resolve a market dishonorably by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• If Steve Kirsch loses their bet with Rootclaim over COVID-19 vaccine deaths, will they pay the money? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Krark-Clan Ironworks be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Seat of the Synod be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will the problem of heuristic arguments still be an open problem by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Green Sun's Zenith be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Rumble reach a $10 billion market cap before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Second Sunrise be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Hypergenesis be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Birthing Pod be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will the Bitcoin to USD exchange rate fluctuate by a factor of 2 or more in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Summer Bloom be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Ancient Den be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Mystic Sanctuary be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will I be scammed out of at least $100 by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Arcum's Astrolabe be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Seething Song be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Destiny be an effective altruist by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Lurrus of the Dream-Den be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.) — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• If individuals test out the "flashing lights improve learning speed" hypothesis, will they get positive results? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Eye of Ugin be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Glimpse of Nature be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Yorion, Sky Nomad be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will the Magic Arena card pool contain Panglacial Wurm before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• By the end of 2025, will players at Magic: The Gathering tournaments be allowed to use Manifold to bet on them? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Umezawa's Jitte be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Faithless Looting be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Dig Through Time be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Deathrite Shaman be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• MMLU 99% #3: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Blazing Shoal be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will a large publication advocate for intentionally giving people disabilities by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Gitaxian Probe be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• If Rootclaim loses their bet with Steve Kirsch over COVID-19 vaccine deaths, will they pay the money? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Tree of Tales be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• If I run another Manifold MTG tournament, will Zvi enter? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.) — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Punishing Fire be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Sensei's Divining Top be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will my next laptop use Linux? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Oko, Thief of Crowns be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will @TobiasVyseri and I still be romantically involved at the beginning of 2026? [M$1000 subsidy] — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will the QBI deduction be extended — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will the sentience or consciousness of AI become a left/right culture war issue before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Golgari Grave-Troll be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Dread Return be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Skullclamp be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Simian Spirit Guide be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Bridge From Below be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will any Fortune 500 corporation mostly/entirely replace their customer service workforce with AI by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• If I set up a Twitter account that posts a Magic: The Gathering rules question every day, will it have at least 400 followers a month later? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Cloudpost be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Will Steve Kirsch win their bet with Rootclaim over vaccine deaths? — closes 2026-01-01 08:00 UTC
• Was SBF behind the FTX hack? — closes 2026-01-01 08:01 UTC
• Will low risk stocks outperform the market from now until 2026 (sharpe ratio)? — closes 2026-01-01 08:01 UTC
• Will Donald Trump serve any prison time before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 08:01 UTC
• hollywood-level AI-generated feature film by 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 08:01 UTC
• Will I touch a “2025” penny in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:05 UTC
• How soon until factory workers at Amazon,Tesla, Apple, Pride Mobility and such are replaced with humanoid robots? — closes 2026-01-01 08:59 UTC
• Will Elon be removed as CEO of Tesla by June 1st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 08:59 UTC
• Will Google acquire OpenAI? (By 2025 end) — closes 2026-01-01 09:29 UTC
• Will my Manifold prediction streak remain unbroken through 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 09:59 UTC
• What soft forks will Bitcoin Core support before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 09:59 UTC
• Will on-site construction on the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) start in Hawaii before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 09:59 UTC
• Will anyone be charged with interfering with the 2024 US general election before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 10:00 UTC
• Will there be a movie/TV show made that focuses on the trajectory of OpenAI from its inception? (By 2026) — closes 2026-01-01 10:03 UTC
• How many projects will be submitted at Manifold first hackathon? — closes 2026-01-01 10:11 UTC
• What major iOS version will be the first to not support the iPhone SE (2nd generation)? — closes 2026-01-01 10:59 UTC
• Will Martin Shkreli have a child through 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 10:59 UTC
• Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) be included in the S&P 500 by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 10:59 UTC
• Will xAI rank above OpenAI at EOY? — closes 2026-01-01 10:59 UTC
• In which city will the 2036 Olympic Games be held? — closes 2026-01-01 10:59 UTC
• Will the U.S. slide into the tenets of fascism under Trump’s second term by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 10:59 UTC
• Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 10:59 UTC
• will https://dingboard.com/ still be online in 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 10:59 UTC
• Will the percentage of the global population that is religiously unaffiliated increase from 16.4% by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 10:59 UTC
• Will fast take-off happen this year? — closes 2026-01-01 10:59 UTC
• In 2025, will any member of U.S. Congress change their party affiliation? — closes 2026-01-01 11:01 UTC
• Will I see at least 10 people wearing AR/MR headsets outside before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 11:33 UTC
• Київ (Kyiv) or Киев (Kiev) – which name will locals use more in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 12:00 UTC
• Is Gunko A Spy For The Revolutionary Army? — closes 2026-01-01 12:52 UTC
• When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Will the 3x3 Rubik’s cube single world record be <3 seconds in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Will Hololive Production establish a new Hololive branch before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• When will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI Publicly Release GPT-5 on or before 1st Jan 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Will Anthony Albanese be the Prime Minister of Australia at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• What will Taylor Swift release by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Which song on Reputation (Taylor's Version) will be the first to reach 100,000,000 streams on Spotify? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Will Syria hold legitimate elections before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• How many times will SpaceX launch their Falcon 9 / Heavy in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Will I publish 30 substacks in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Will Iran experience regime change in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Boxing Matchups/Events to occur in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Which stocks will outperform the NASDAQ index during 2025? 📊 📈💰🤑💳 — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• How many rocket launches will be needed for the Artemis III human moon-landing mission? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Which stocks will outperform the S&P 500 during 2025?📊 📈💰🤑💳 — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• If Oasis reforms and announces a reunion tour, will they complete all scheduled shows by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• @chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Will Nayib Bukele be the leader of El Salvador at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 12:59 UTC
• Will Sam Altman start a company with the letter "X" in the name? (By 2025 end) — closes 2026-01-01 13:29 UTC
• Which months of 2025 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch? — closes 2026-01-01 13:29 UTC
• Will the main destiny youtube channel be banned or suspended for any period of time during 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 13:29 UTC
• Will Japan increase the International Tourist Tax before the end of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 13:29 UTC
• Will King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard play Sydney Opera House before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 13:59 UTC
• Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 14:29 UTC
• Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 14:29 UTC
• Limits on AI model size by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 14:29 UTC
• Will more Americans be happy in 2024 than in 2018 according to the General Social Survey? — closes 2026-01-01 14:45 UTC
• KTX: Will Suwon KTX Line open before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 14:59 UTC
• Will a country put another flag on the moon by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 14:59 UTC
• KTX: Will Incheon KTX Line open before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 14:59 UTC
• What will the fate of Lena Dunham’s Polly Pocket movie be? — closes 2026-01-01 14:59 UTC
• Will any US federal court rule that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has broken federal law in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 14:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI release next-generation models with varying capabilities and sizes? — closes 2026-01-01 14:59 UTC
• Will Tetraspace vape nicotine by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 14:59 UTC
• Will Kidd And/Or Killer Get Reintroduced And Save The Owl Library Squad? — closes 2026-01-01 15:34 UTC
• Will anyone successfully throw and hit Elon Musk with a raw egg in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will Canada leave the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will martial law be declared in Taiwan before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will the Sierra Madre still be inhabited by Filipino Marines in 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Binance CEO CZ (Changpeng Zhao) resides in Russia before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will anyone attempt to assassinate Elon Musk in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• US 10-year treasury trades above 7% before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will Dong Jun still be Defence Minister of China at the beginning of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will there be a global recession declared by the IMF before December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Conditional on Gaza being controlled by Hamas, will Palestine's Civil Liberties Index in 2024 be higher than 2022? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin reach $200K in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will YouTube support AI-powered video summarization by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• When will Atomic Semi have a product you can buy? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will an altcoin ETF be approved in the U.S.A. by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will any tariffs enacted by President Trump in 2025 remain at 25% or higher on any goods from Canada by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 2% of GDP in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will a virtual reality platform host a live event attended by a sitting head of state by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 2.5% of GDP in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• How many times will the Fed cut rates in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will any country leave the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• What will be the Most Significant Digit of the highest Bitcoin price in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will Israel use nuclear weapons against an adversary before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will Qin Gang be imprisoned by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will Bevy release an official game editor before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will the fertility rate of South Korea increase from 2023 to 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• What will be the most popular AI assistant on smart glasses in 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 15:59 UTC
• Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? — closes 2026-01-01 16:00 UTC
• Which of the following will best represent my assessment of the end outcome of the Trump tariffs — closes 2026-01-01 16:09 UTC
• Will Trump be able to force Jerome Powell to leave or resign from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve? — closes 2026-01-01 16:59 UTC
• Which of these countries will have a Jet Lag season before 2026? (read description) — closes 2026-01-01 16:59 UTC
• Will Google sell Chrome by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 16:59 UTC
• Will the Senate pass the Antisemitism Awareness Act before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 16:59 UTC
• Will the Taiwanese Representative Office in Vilnius close or change its name before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 16:59 UTC
• Will the FAA delay approval for any SpaceX flight for more than 30 days in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 16:59 UTC
• Will there be a global "pause" on cutting-edge AI research due to government regulation by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 16:59 UTC
• Which of developers will have the highest median salary by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 17:59 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 18:00 UTC
• NH stops car inspections? (New Hampshire) — closes 2026-01-01 18:11 UTC
• Will AI generates film (not video) by using a person's script before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 18:29 UTC
• Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 18:29 UTC
• Will Tesla construct a Gigafactory in India before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 18:29 UTC
• one piece, will current generation[akainu,shanks] surpass old generation — closes 2026-01-01 18:29 UTC
• By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs? — closes 2026-01-01 18:29 UTC
• What will happen before 2026 (in 2025) [ADD RESPONSE] — closes 2026-01-01 18:29 UTC
• Taylor Swift releases a song crediting an AI system before 2026 (Ex: Taylor Swift ft. Suno)? — closes 2026-01-01 18:29 UTC
• Will there be a consumer device to detect and measure microplastics under <$300 by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 18:29 UTC
• Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan anytime through 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 18:29 UTC
• First drone murder in Russia — closes 2026-01-01 18:59 UTC
• Confirmation that Elon Musk has more than 20 biological children through 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 19:00 UTC
• Will gamers be liberated by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 19:00 UTC
• Will Aubrey de Grey be re-instated in SOME role by SENS by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 19:01 UTC
• When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering? — closes 2026-01-01 19:59 UTC
• Will Intel or Amd announce an Arm-based desktop processor before 1 Jan 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 19:59 UTC
• Well there be popular availability of a symptom relieving glove for Parkinson's by Jan 1 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 20:00 UTC
• When will Biden publicly say the term 'AGI' (or 'Artificial General Intelligence')? — closes 2026-01-01 20:00 UTC
• Will Ken Griffin be caught in a national scandal by 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 20:08 UTC
• Will Peter thiel be charged with a felony by 2026. — closes 2026-01-01 20:12 UTC
• Will the Austin LessWrong's 2025 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place? — closes 2026-01-01 20:40 UTC
• Universal Love Market - Which public figures will get engaged before 2026? [Unlinked Free Response] — closes 2026-01-01 20:42 UTC
• Will Austin LessWrong have a presence on meetup.com by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 20:51 UTC
• Will Austin LessWrong have a near-gender-balanced meetup in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 20:57 UTC
• Will Bitcoin hit $150k before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 20:59 UTC
• Which of my 2025 chess goals will i achieve? — closes 2026-01-01 20:59 UTC
• Will there be an attempt of a large-scale Russian offensive by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 20:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk visit Russia in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 20:59 UTC
• Will Trump meet in person with Putin in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 20:59 UTC
• Will Jenner and Chalamet break up before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 20:59 UTC
• Will Serbian passport holders at any point be required to obtain visas to enter Schengen countries by Jan 1st 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 20:59 UTC
• Will Bashar al-Assad survive 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 20:59 UTC
• Given that Hamas will execute a hostage and release video of the killing, will at least 1 hostage be a child under 16? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will the non-fiction writers suing OpenAI and Microsoft obtain class certification? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Javier Milei convert to Judaism? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will the 2025 average carbon price of the regulated carbon market in Europe exceed €100/t CO2? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• What will the Nvidia stock price be at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk tweet a link to RRN by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will a Formula 1 Grand Prix be held at Kyalami before, or during, the 2026 season? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Our World in Data report at least 1,700 TWh of solar power generated in 2023? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will X / Twitter become inaccessible in Europe during 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will any US state introduce legislation regulating the genetic screening of embryos? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will any of these 7 markets about game-playing AI resolve YES in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will ivermectin be proven to be a superconducter by new years 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will India be renamed to Bharat before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• How many Hezbollah Operatives were INJURED by the pager operation — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Which brand will Destiny's next race pistol be? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will 23andMe be bought before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Doge coin have a major bull run relative to Bitcoin by 2026? (DOGE/BTC >= 0.000007) — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will a new song by Oliver Anthony become extremely popular by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will construction of a permanent Israeli settlement in Gaza begin by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine and Russia have a cease-fire or peace before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will there be a riot against the ban on leaving Ukraine by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• What will midjourney release before 2026? (Open multi-choice) — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will there be an Mpox pandemic by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Poland participate in a war by the end of 25 — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk no longer be the head of DOGE by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will there exist a popular piece of media featuring the Twitter Pill Dilemma by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Russia deliberately destroy the Zaporizha nuclear power plant. — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will the Gaza strip be part of Egypt by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Indonesia open embassy in Israel before the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will python mojo be successful (>50% loved on SO survey) by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will any member of the Manifold community in good standing default in bad faith on a mana loan? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Nexo users be unable to withdraw their deposits by Jan 1st 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• How many peak players will Marvel Rivals hit by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Venezuela exercise de facto rule over any portion of Guyanese territory before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:00 UTC
• Will the fifth major model iteration of OpenAI contain the string "GPT-5" in its name (API)? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Did the European commission offer X a secret deal? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• OpenAI discovers the first proof of the collatz conjecture before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the WHO state that there is conclusive evidence that microplastics exposure reduces human fertility by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will x.com (formerly Twitter) be forced to restrict access to EU users over DSA compliance by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• [Add options] For Fold's Sake love life prop bets 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• How many drug connected shootings will occur in 2025 in Brussels — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Which famous people will name AI as an existential threat before 2026? [Mega Independent] — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• What will be true about Tesla FSD by end 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Were Employee Deaths at Northvolt Sweden Environment-Related? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced medium-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI add image generation capabilities to its o1/o3/... series models before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Starship land on legs on Earth after returning from orbit? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• What will be true about Brighter Shores, Andrew Gower's new MMORPG? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Oleksey Arestovich survive until the end of Ukraine's next presidential election? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will there be more alignmentforum posts from 2025 than 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will r/ankmemes have 50k members before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the UK increase the personal income tax rate before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Magnus Carlsen be dethroned from his #1 spot in FIDE rating before GTA 6 is released? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Apple buy perplexity by end 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will an algorithm be able to work on million-line codebases before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the French President of the Republic dissolve the National Assembly again before the end of 2025 ? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will I make IOL sometime? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in one day in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Polymarket's daily trading volume reach or exceed $200 million at any point during the calendar year 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• How many charities will be incubated through the Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the paper proposing two big bangs be "confirmed" by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Lumina / BCS3-L1 by Lantern Bioworks be available in the EU by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a female driver participate in a Formula 1 Grand Prix in 2024 or 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will TSLA reach $ 500 in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Montenegro join the EU by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the band Tool release a new album before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a maximum speed on the German Autobahn at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• How many seasons will HBOs House of the Dragon have? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a major war break out in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will I address a German with "Jawohl, Herr Obersturmbannführer"? by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will any AI solve more than four of AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will I make IMO sometime? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Which of the ICML 2023 Outstanding Paper award winners will have the most citations at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Which of the following prices will be the closest to the maximum dollar price bitcoin reaches in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Persona 6 come out on any last gen console within the year of its launch? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced short-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Apotea (APOTEA) reach 200 SEK at any point in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• What will China’s annual inflation rate for 2025 be? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a satisfactory sub-quadratic attention operator be found to replace quadratic self-attention layers by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will DiCaprio be the main protagonist in Martin Scorsese's next film The Wager? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will COIN reach $ 700 by the end of 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Is Kaiser being manipulated? (HxH) — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI autonomously earn more than $10,000 not through financial trading, starting with no more than $100 by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Dana White be UFC President by Jan 1st 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will xAI receive preferential treatment* by the Trump administration in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Denmark legalize high TCH cannabis by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will someone take my new umbrella before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• US Strategic Crypto Reserve Allocation (%) on Jan 1, 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the Citroen e-C3 sell more than 150,000 units in Europe in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• How many celestial objects on a collision course with Earth will be discovered in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Oleksandr Syrsky still be the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• When will Starship complete an orbit? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will, at any point in 2025, bitcoin's price fall below its price exactly 4 years before that moment? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Infrastructure hacking linked to TETRA vulnerability leads to loss of life (before 2026) — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will France or the UK send soldiers to Ukraine before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a brain-computer interface user vote and comment on this market by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the US sanctions on Russia be largely lifted before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• What will Nvidia's market capitalisation be on December 31st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the Georgian Dream party win the election? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will ammunition explosion in Libavá be attributed to Russia? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• German troops deployed in Ukraine in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Fernando Alonso end up in top-2 of F1 WDC 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will TSLA crash (down 90% from ATH) before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Solana be priced above 300 USD at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• When will Russia's offensive in Ukraine end? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will BNB be priced above 1000 USD at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Sabine Hossenfelder release any new music video by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Before the end of 2025, the Russians will at least once try to carry out a large offensive on the city of Kharkov — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• When will François Bayrou cease to be PM? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Ontario cut off power to the US before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Which cryptocurrency price will perform best in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• What'll Be My P(Loss of Control before 2100) In Jan 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Apple buy Intel before EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced intermediate-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Nadeo add the Canyon Car to TM2020 before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the United States Remain Actively Committed to the Paris Agreement by the End of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Lex Fridman return from Russia before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Georgia legalise sports betting by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the king of Norway abdicate the throne? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will I make IBO sometime? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Poland get any WW2 reparations from Germany before end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Schedule F: if Trump is elected, will he appoint more than 10,000 people in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Sergey Surovikin die in a plane crash? by 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a Sequences-style book on FDT be written by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Starship refuelling be solved by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Magnus Carlsen drop below 2800 Elo at any point before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a season 7 of "The Expanse" before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Which cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Midjourney be forced to exclude some artists from training data by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy still be the President of Ukraine on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Press freedom: will any journalists or media workers be detained in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will TSLA reach $ 600 in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a US President visit Ukraine in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will I experience a random chimp event before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• What continent will White Lotus be recording next season? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• When will Starship first launch with useful payload? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• When will 11 bit studios release the game "The Alters"? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the Citroen e-C3 sell more than 200,000 units in Europe in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• When will Silksong be released? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will TSLA reach $ 700 in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Skyblivion release by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will CS2 release on Mobile by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Lumen Orbit have a satellite in orbit in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will there be evidence of large scale data pollution operations by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a TAS for Super Mario Bros (NES) improve upon the currently best known TAS before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will we see a new Steam Deck in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Better Watch Out get a sequel (before the end of 2025)? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Grok & Tesla: what will be true by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) exist at EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a public discussion between Elon Musk and Eliezer Yudkowsky? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Serbia's president Vučić stay in power throughout 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Solana (SOL) surpass Ethereum (ETH) in market cap by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will i be left leaning as of 1 jan 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk join Bluesky by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 22:59 UTC
• What is the highest temperature (K) at which LK-99 is a superconductor? — closes 2026-01-01 23:06 UTC
• Will Erobb221 be criminally charged for punching DariusIRL on stream? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will IDF control the Philadelphi Corridor until at least the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the UK increase its top marginal tax rate on income in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• If Tetraspace does X will she think it was a great idea in retrospect? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Who will be Prime Minister of Canada on 1 Jan 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• On which of these platforms will I post content in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Which of these cities will I visit in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Is the Letitia James mortgage fraud story legit? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will RFK Jr. be the Secretary Health and Human Services at the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• What CEFR level will I have reached for Russian on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Andrew Elenbogen watch Yugioh 5D's episodes 144 and 145 this year? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will S&P 500 increase in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Oxford University Press's 2025 Word of the Year will be AI-related — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• What percentage of 2025 will be left when OpenAI releases GPT-5? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Nara sign a new full-time job offer in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the UK grant more work visas in the year ending September 2025 than in the year ending September 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will I accept an offer to work as a W2 employee in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will I have 5000 Twitter followers at any point in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will it be possible to sequence a full human genome for US$50 by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• What form factor will the device from OpenAI + LoveFrom take? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will there be a new breed of dog more dangerous than the XL Bully before 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Elon join Manifold through 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Marathon hits 100K concurrent Steam players before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Which of these match-ups will be featured in Epic Rap Battles of History before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Putin visit the USA in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• In what month of year 2025 perl 5.42.0 will be released — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• What will be the next Imperator: Rome tag that Tetraspace does a complete playthrough with? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Intel spin-off its foundry business by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the SEC approve a DOGE ETF in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will RFK Jr. have an official role in the Trump Administration at the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• By 2026 will Substack generally be viewed in a similar way to medium.com — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• In planecrash, what was the fourth Major Curse placed on Abrogail? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• What will be the setting of the next 3D Xbox Assassin's Creed game after Shadows? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Who will be on the Complex Systems podcast in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will total applications for asylum in the UK be higher in 2025 than in 2024? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will I bench press >= 225lb 1RM equivalent in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Which companies will successfully launch an IPO in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will McDonald's open a location in Yerevan, Armenia in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Vladimir Putin be alive on 1st January 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will a first party Nintendo game sell for 100$ on the Switch 2 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk express support for Cape Independence by 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the Tontine surviving player count be 142 (1/50) or less as of 2026-1-1? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Russia abandon the Tartus naval base in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• By 2026, the SOTA in image generation will be using a voice chat to control the generation. — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will I accept an offer to work as a W2 employee in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• What will be the next Crusader Kings 3 tag that Tetraspace does a complete playthrough with? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Mira Murati be the CEO of Thinking Machines on January 1st 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• What locations will be used in missions or mini games in GTA6? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will “Frozen 3” be released by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will I move away from London before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• How many Substack posts will I publish in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Pax Dei reach 100k concurrent players by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will any nation's military budget be used to train an AI system that consistently beats GPT-4's SAT scores by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Peter Navarro out of the Trump admin before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Who will acquire Intel in 2025? (Resolves N/A if no acquisition) — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Anthropic be acquired by another company before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Xi Jinping voluntarily leave any of his offices before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• What will be the next Europa Universalis 4 tag that Tetraspace does a complete playthrough with? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk testify before the British Parliament before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will any country implement a tax on meat products due to environmental concerns by the end of 2025? (M$300 subsidy) — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will marijuana (cannabis) be legalised for recreational use in the UK by 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Trump visit Moscow (capital of Russia) in 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will India and China go to war before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the sale of new leasehold properties be outlawed in the UK by 2025 — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will, on average, more than 40% of people say the Monarchy is good for the UK, across 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the legal battle between Blake Lively & Justin Baldoni be as widely publicised as Johnny Depp versus Amber Heard? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? (harder question version) — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Fair Neoform be banned in Modern before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• El Salvador will be doing really well at the start of 2026 — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the minimum global corporate tax of 15% be able to end tax competition and raise additional sizeable revenue? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Discord IPO Before 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• By 2026, the SOTA in image generation will be using mind reading to control the generation. — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Ryan Reynolds and Rob McelHenney still be co-chairmen of Wrexham football club on 1st January 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will American Civics Exchange still offer over-the-counter (OTC) political swaps in 2026? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will I create an LLC in 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will a fourth season of How to with John Wilson be released before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Nate Soares go on the Joe Rogan Podcast before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Polymarket add PWHL as a tradeable category in their sports section by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 00:00 UTC
• Number of EU firms in MSCI World Index top 50 by December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 00:00 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 00:00 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 00:00 UTC
• Will Sony or Kadokawa announce acquisition plans before end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 00:00 UTC
• Elon Musk will be world's wealthiest person on January 1, 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 00:00 UTC
• Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 00:40 UTC
• Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets? — closes 2026-01-02 00:59 UTC
• Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets? — closes 2026-01-02 00:59 UTC
• Will the first Reuters article about Manifold mention assassination markets? — closes 2026-01-02 00:59 UTC
• Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 01:00 UTC
• Will Overwatch Return to Peak Players Before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 01:13 UTC
• Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 01:16 UTC
• Will we win the giant game of chess against our neighbors in our front yard? — closes 2026-01-02 01:59 UTC
• Will Magnus Carlsen still be the best chess player in 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 02:00 UTC
• Will Israel attack Turkey or Iraq by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 02:34 UTC
• Will European Troops Enter Combat in Ukraine Before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 02:59 UTC
• Will São Paulo Metro Line 6 (Orange) be operational by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 02:59 UTC
• Will the game Rimworld have a new DLC announced in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 02:59 UTC
• Will Mrbeast be a billionaire by 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 02:59 UTC
• When will Bryan Johnson die? — closes 2026-01-02 02:59 UTC
• Will the Syrian civil war continue (for more than 6 months) after the Assad regime falls? — closes 2026-01-02 02:59 UTC
• What will the status of the 45X Tax Credit be at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the CyberTruck achieve the IIHS rating of Top Safety Pick+? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will I regret the extra time spent working to save up for my wedding? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• What % Change will RKLB (Rocketlab) Stock Value Have After NEUTRON Launches for the first time? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Egypt announce that they will accept at least 1000 Palestinian refugees by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will anyone be murdered by a Luigi Mangione Copycat in the United States Before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will any Manifold founder go on the Lex Fridman podcast before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How many markets will I have made, in total, by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Garry Tan stop being CEO of YC before Linda Yaccarino stops being CEO of Twitter? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the USA vs Adobe trial be dropped / dismissed / thrown out before it goes to trial? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Do implanted brain-computer interfaces get put in anyone for reasons other than a medical treatment by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025. — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will GiveWell be funding constrained through 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• The Million Views Challenge: Will the first market to reach 1 Million views receive an reward for it? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Scott Aaronson write about Quantum Economics before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Ubisoft/Massive Entertainment's "The Division 3" have a subtitle? i.e. "The Division 3: Uprising" — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Illumina be subject to M&A before end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the right wing in the United States attempt to "cancel" a candy product outside of M&Ms before 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will someone do a walking Triffus in trampwall by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• When will Madoka Magica Magia Exedra release? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Who will be elected Governor of Virginia in 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the killer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson be revealed to have been hired by another party? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• By 2026, will I regret learning a bunch of math/physics as opposed to focusing more on AI? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the Martian Moons eXploration probe (MMX) reach Mars and be functional? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will lucky llama speak before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will a 10th Judge be Appointed to the US Supreme Court by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will any United States elected official call for the release of Luigi Mangione by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will I be gifted F4 mana before the end of the year? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be >15% unemployment at any time prior to January 1st 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Did the Russians intend to destroy the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if they intended a significantly lesser sabotage) — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will a human player defeat the SSBM AI Phillip in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will a peer-reviewed paper be published stating that the James Webb Space Telescope detected extraterrestrial life? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Morning in Trump's America: Which industry sectors will have job growth in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk make a site containing the word pravda before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a Luigi Mangione Copycat before Jan 1, 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the International Seabed Authority issue a deep sea mining (exploitation) license before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• If TikTok is sold, will the algorithm be included in the sale? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Syria continue to allow Russia to operate its air and naval bases inside of Syria until the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a major competitor to Kubernetes with at least 20% market share by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How long will Tom Homan serve as Donald Trump's "border czar"? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the new TikTok Notes app be more popular than Instagram by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk reject Darwinian Evolution before January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a CubeCon 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel withdraw from the buffer zone with Syria by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will ispace's SERIES 2 mission successfully land on the moon? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How high will Bitcoin go by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• If Manifold adds the ability to place stop orders, will the people who asked for them regret it within a month? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will JS Module Expressions reach stage 3 by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple release AirPods with a camera by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• [Situational awareness] Will pre-2026 LLMs achieve token-output control? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will living off “Huel” be shown to have negative health effects by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Which MCU movie (of 2025 only) will have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Ethiopia retake the port of Assab in Eritrea by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• If I write an e/acc FAQ, will it be widely shared? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will a sitting member of U.S. Congress express support for the #LandBack movement before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Python remain a leading language until 2026 with or without the GIL? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea] — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will *both* rapamycin.news and crsociety.org be incorporated into a large language model like Claude or GPT by 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will any new MTG judge promos come out by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will a Nintendo character appear in Fortnite before Jan 1st 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a New UN Member by (before) 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Syria recognize Israel by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a new (non-Sweden) NATO member before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• What will be the median pay for a Game Developer (entry level) on Jan 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will any image model available to the public be able to reliably produce images of every regular polygon before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple be the biggest company by market cap in the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will I donate my kidney before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Israel politically control Gaza after the 2023 Israel-Hamas war ends? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Suzetrigine/VX-548 (non-opioid painkiller) be prescribed to >500k patients in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Russia completely annex Ukraine by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage) — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will North Korea announce a formal regime succession plan by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the US government ban Rednote / Xiaohongshu by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Conditional on manifold.love banning people under 18 from participating, will it get to 10,000 DAU's before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the Rapamycin - Effects on Alzheimer's and Cognitive Health (REACH) trial show that Rapamycin improves Alzheimer's — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Alia Abbas become a Thiel Fellow? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will anyone deliver a human organ via autonomous jet drone before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• When will Baldur's Gate 3 get a DLC release? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• [Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will transformers still be the dominant DL architecture in 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the United States government abolish or substantially modify the student loan system before January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Falcon 9 family of rockets launch to orbit (successfully) more times in 2025 than in 2024? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Haunted Chocolatier (Stardew Valley Dev's next game) release before Jan 1st 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be another color of Super Saiyan in the Dragon Ball series by Jan 1st 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Which of the Gorosei is a Traitor? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Conditional on manifold.love explicitly allowing people <18 to participate, will it get very bad PR within 3 months? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin reach $123,456.78 before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will OpenAI release a model that can generate an image of a horse riding an astronaut on the moon? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the US cap AI training runs after this candidate wins the presidency? (Before 2026) — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will any CRISPR based gene drive be released in the wild by 1/1/2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Iran attack Saudi Arabia before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• If many think Trump was unjustly incarcerated and kept from the presidency, will there be extreme civil unrest? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Joe Biden still be alive by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Which users will attend Metagame 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• In 2026, will Manifold think that Sam Altman abused Annie Altman? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Minecraft 1.23 be announced in 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will anyone show up to a rationalist-adjacent event in a quokka fursuit before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will a leading AI company productize Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KAN) by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift's next album contain more swear words than The Tortured Poets Department? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• What will be the outcome of the USA vs Adobe trial? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How many paid Waymo rides per week at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Nima Momeni be convicted of first-degree murder of Cash App founder Bob Lee? (before 2026) — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How many cities will Waymo serve at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will @SteveSokolowski be deemed a vexatious litigant by 2027? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Who loses power first? | Kim Jong Un vs Xi Zinping | Dictator Faceoff — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• What will be the maximum EPA-rated range for consumer electric vehicles (EVs) sold in the United States in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Nippon Steel acquires US Steel? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the price of Earbuds in Team Fortress 2 be $13.00 or more on Jan 1st 2026 according to Marketplace.tf? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will health insurers in the US be legally required to allow multiple wives on a subscriber's health insurance by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Which current ninth generation console will have the most sells by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Wikipedia change page title of "Gulf of Mexico" by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will more than 90% of USA households have a broadband internet subscription according to EOY 2025 data? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Manifold be acquired by Polymarket or Kalshi by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• What will be the median pay for a Full Stack Engineer (entry level) on Jan 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Ethereum airdrops in 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will women in Syria be allowed to attend school on Jan 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Which MCU movie (of 2025 only) will have the highest box office worldwide? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• What gender(s) will I think I am by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Conditional on manifold.love allowing people under 18 to participate, will it get to 10,000 DAU's before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Databricks IPO before January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Grand Theft Auto 6 release before Monster Hunter Wilds? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will UV surpass Poetry in monthly PyPi downloads in before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will an earthquake over 6.4 magnitude happen before 2026 in the USA? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump violate the gag order put in place by Judge Chutkan? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Gali Baharav-Miara be removed as Israel's Attorney General before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• What will the federal tax rate on select private university endowments be on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the U.S. send troops to Sudan by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Ayaan Hirsi Ali recant from Christianity before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How many hundreds of thousands of mpox cases will be reported in the US from 2024 through 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will gravity still exist after making these new technologies after 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Section 174 Allow Full Expensing of SWE Salaries for R&E in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• When will Midjourney V7 be released? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Elliott Smith’s teenage work (which has popped up on YouTube) see any official releases or remasters by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Where will the next Pokemon region be? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will anyone in the US be prosecuted for betting in an illegal prediction market before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Twitter/x.com merge with or acquire Truth Social by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How many Palestinian prisoners will Israel release in exchange for Hamas hostages? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will I make it to the end of 2025 without breaking my glasses? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the next Prophet-President of the Mormon Church? (LDS) — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will AI-generated video be used to get away with a criminal (felony) loss of life before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will any LLM correctly answer the question "why doesn't the rocket equation apply to airplanes?" before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• At some point during the series, will Brook REVIVE Zoro from death? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will any of my Magic cards be stolen before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Wojak be stale by 2026? 🥺🍞 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will we have an open-source model that is equivalent GPT-4 by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will it be legal for Americans to bet on elections in 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Tucker Carlson be deplatformed from YouTube by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX deliver the next set of human astronauts to the lunar surface? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will anyone throw soup on OpenAI's doors before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How long will Susie Wiles serve as Donald Trump's chief of staff? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Mr Beast release a Video where he is launched into Space before the end of 2025. — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How many people will attend Metagame 2025 (Sept 12-14)? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released before Claude 4? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How many H5N1 human cases will there be in the USA by end of 2025, according to CDC? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will at least one U.S. state eliminate or significantly restrict no-fault divorce by December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Which Gorosei will be Defeated Last? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• "Canadian highschools target low-scoring high schoolers with MAID, to raise standardized test scores" — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will an employee at a US defense contractor be killed for political reasons by a leftist? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be serious AI safety drama at Meta AI before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will researchers extract a novel program from the weights of an LLM into a Procedural/OO programming language by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will an FPV drone be used in the commission of a crime outside of the country of Russia in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Trump executive orders in first year: number — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Does the asteroid polyhymnia contain elements missing from the periodic table? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Minecraft 1.23 be announced in 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• What company will be the largest by market cap at the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be another color of Super Saiyan in the Dragon Ball series by Jan 1st 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• What will be the median pay for a Full Stack Engineer (entry level) on Jan 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Kathy Hochul remove Eric Adams from office? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Which of the Gorosei is a Traitor? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the stock market crash in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• What % Change will RKLB (Rocketlab) Stock Value Have After NEUTRON Launches for the first time? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Todd Heisler's photograph of Kamala Harris speaking at the Democratic National Convention win a Pulitzer? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will a peer-reviewed paper be published stating that the James Webb Space Telescope detected extraterrestrial life? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the FDA update their regulation on the labeling of trans fat content ≤0.5 g to "Trans Fat - 0 g" by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will UV surpass Poetry in monthly PyPi downloads in before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Yann LeCun remain chief AI scientist at Meta until 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Apple release AirPods with a camera by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• If Manifold adds the ability to place stop orders, will the people who asked for them regret it within a month? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will researchers extract a novel program from the weights of an LLM into a Procedural/OO programming language by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the price of Earbuds in Team Fortress 2 be $13.00 or more on Jan 1st 2026 according to Marketplace.tf? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Argentina fully dollarize by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin reach $123,456.78 before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Cardinal Becciu serve time in prison after corruption conviction before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the US cap AI training runs after this candidate wins the presidency? (Before 2026) — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will lucky llama speak before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Musk and Melania get caught having an affair in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will someone do a walking Triffus in trampwall by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a CubeCon 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• If I write an e/acc FAQ, will it be widely shared? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will *both* rapamycin.news and crsociety.org be incorporated into a large language model like Claude or GPT by 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Gali Baharav-Miara be removed as Israel's Attorney General before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025. — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a New UN Member by (before) 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will a leading AI company productize Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KAN) by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• The Million Views Challenge: Will the first market to reach 1 Million views receive an reward for it? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How many markets will I have made, in total, by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How will the data shortage for LLM gets solved — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Morning in Trump's America: Which industry sectors will have job growth in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• How long will Susie Wiles serve as Donald Trump's chief of staff? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will OpenAI release a model that can generate an image of a horse riding an astronaut on the moon? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk reject Darwinian Evolution before January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will an employee at a US defense contractor be killed for political reasons by a leftist? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Betty Boop enter the public domain on Jan 1st 2026 as planned? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Eric Adams face prison time from the current charges brought against him? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Does the asteroid polyhymnia contain elements missing from the periodic table? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Starlink IPO by the end 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 04:59 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:00 UTC
• Who is Kat's mystery ~partner? — closes 2026-01-02 05:22 UTC
• Will "mosaic" style tiling become the default behavior of the GNOME desktop environment at any point before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• When will season 2 of Saga of Tanya the Evil release? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will the 2025 Gävle goat be destroyed? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• What will P. Diddy (Sean “Puffy” Combs) be convicted of? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• "The Purge": When will EIP-4444 go live? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over three years from 2023? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Elon musk announce plans to create a manifold clone/competitor by Jan 1st 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will another Manifold Partner be banned before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Kraken stop providing Monero trading in the United States before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will any OECD country undergo a sovereign debt crisis by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• When will SpaceX IPO? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Following the Supreme Court ruling, will Minneapolis add criminal penalties to its public camping ban before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• By the end of year 2025, will a counter-example to the Collatz Conjecture be provided that is less than a googolplex? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Do infant vaccines increase the likelihood of SIDS? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will an AI tool be able to generate a feature-length movie about the OpenAI drama before the regular movie comes out? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Maduro be in office on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will there be a Blizzcon before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Conditional on AI getting at least bronze on the IMO, will it get gold by 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Who Will be the Next Mayor of New York City? (Add answers) — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will most women accept payment for sex from most men (independently and without any need for managers/pimps) by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• In-person GDC will happen in the US in 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Mexico formally legalize cannabis by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will the % chance of this question be positive or negative on Jan 1 2026. — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will AI Addiction be recognized and as common as video game addiction by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will the Creator Partner Program be terminated before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will "Global Room-Temperature Superconductivity in Graphite" Replicate by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Intel discrete GPUs have a marketshare greater than 8% by January 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Which incumbent voice assistant will be first to incorporate an LLM? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• [ADD ANSWERS] What will happen in the Menendez Brothers case? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Science Corp run human trials for the Science Eye before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• "The Surge": When will Ethereum support 150 Uniswap v2 swaps / average block? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will prerat make it to vibecamp 3? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Death Stranding 2 receive a higher metacritic score than the first game? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will the Media Report Luka Doncic has a drug problem before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Anthropic reach $4B annualized revenue by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• "The Merge": When will Ethereum have single-slot finality? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• "The Splurge": When will EVM Object Format be added to mainnet? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Nintendo Switch 2 prop bets [Add answers!] — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will X/Twitter outlive Elon Musk being in control? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will the FDA limit microplastic amounts for food by 2028 — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Did DeepSeek receive unannounced assistance from OpenAI in the creation of their v3 model? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Alejandro Valverde ride a professional road cycling race (.1 or above) before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Nvidia vs Apple: Highest Market Cap at end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Ramzan Kadyrov becomes the leader of Russia before 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Marco Rubio still be Secretary of State in January 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Given Russia-Ukraine War does not end in 2025, will Trump withhold significant support from Ukraine — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Apple Inc. have the highest market cap at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will Microsoft announce that it is acquiring Unity Technologies before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• When will someone be able to recreate Google's Hands-on with Gemini video for the first time? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• What words or phrases will Trump say in 2025? [Add Answers] — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will I reach 5 digit (<rank 99999) in osu! standard before 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will a third Sicario film release before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 05:59 UTC
• Will nuclear weapons cause at least [1, 1000, 100000] deaths in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included) — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will information suggesting Elon was involved with the creation of Bitcoin emerge through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Volkswagen will fall out of the top 4 car companies by revenue any time through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Kanye West Die by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will any of the current Chapo Trap House hosts quit the podcast by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Ferry from Miami to Cuba available taking less than 12 hours for the trip through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Volkswagen will fall from #1 car company by revenue any time through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will James Huntsman win his fraud case against the LDS church? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• USA adds an amendment, emergency pres. succession, nuke, big disaster, attack, or financial collapse in 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will a 13th child of Elon Musk be revealed by end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Is gpt-3.5-turbo a Mixture of Experts (MoE)? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will any country formally leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• What will be true of @Mira 's AI project by 2026 [ADD ANSWERS] — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will my model Y 2023 be able to drive on a highway in California without me holding the wheel before end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will I reconcile with my sister by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Elon Musk announces he doesn't plan to have any more children before end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• When is Diddy gonna get Epstien'd? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• what are the odds that backblaze is backdoored? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Nuclear War 2025: How many of the linked markets resolve Yes? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Rand Paul's National Right To Work bill pass & become law before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will a book by Brandon Sanderson win a Goodreads Choice Award in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Elon Musk lands on the moon anytime through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• MLB will use an artificially reconstructed voice of a deceased broadcaster to cover at least part of a game through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Israel start applying full Israeli law on their illegal settlements in Palestine in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin Be Over $100,000 on January 1st, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• By when will Starliner-1 launch? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still] — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Stoke Space fly to space by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Shirakami Fubuki hit 3 million subscribers on YouTube before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:30 UTC
• Will Kobo Kanaeru have more YouTube subscribers than any Hololive Japan member by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:30 UTC
• Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop — closes 2026-01-02 07:54 UTC
• Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal for US residents in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• When will Asahi Linux be ready enough for me to take a Zoom call on a 2023 MacBook Pro? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Super Nintendo World come to Universal Studios Singapore before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the US Federal Government make it illegal to share deepfake nudes before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Tesla model 2 be the best selling car in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Blogpost titled "The [disease] of [emotion]" by @ScottAlexander before 2026 because of a manifold market? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will 2% of Americans believe technology is most important problem in the US before the end of 2025, according to Gallup? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• A major publication is doing a profile on me. Will it be a hit piece? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will NASA's SLS be cancelled before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. Will there be a debate, and if so what will the judges conclude? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• What will be the total value of the US national strategic crypto reserve on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will LK-99 MRIs be sold commercially by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Price of a RTX 3090 falls below $300 during 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• What will be the strongest earthquake epicenter measured in the Los Angeles metro area before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Prime Minister Netanyahu be assassinated before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will at least one U.S. state declare a state of emergency due to measles before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Fully automated Tesla charger for model Y in CA through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Deadpool be playable in Marvel Rivals before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the Obamas start a video game production company before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• A successor word to "hopium" and "copium" emerges anytime through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will I see anyone other than myself wearing a helmet in a car before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will cultured meat be affordably available in Canada before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will an octagon save the world before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Which of these things will I be actively doing at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• By 2026 will there be autonomous AI good enough that I use it? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will From Software have released a game featuring customizable difficulty settings by the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will any of the Data Colada members be found liable for damages to Gino, conditional on a trial verdict being reached? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• What countr(y/ies) will be decided to host / arrange COP31? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX conduct >100 Starship launches in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the CPI in the US exceed 10% on a year-over-year basis at any point before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Hamas issue an ultimatum threatening to execute a hostage? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Someone comments they bought an RTX 3090 for less than $300 before 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the federal government pass a law which would prevent hedge funds from owning single-family homes before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will an attempt be made on Tanya Chutkan's life by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will people move into Praxis Society by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• What self-driving level SAE will Telsa self-driving be at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• In 2026, what will Wikipedia say was the result of the October 2023 Gaza−Israel conflict — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the R21 malaria vaccine be distributed in 15 countries before July 1st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• AI will convince everyone else in the world to give Jose Luis ricon the love of Jesus Christ by 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Biden re-elected/Inflation rises — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Immersed Visor: Will be reviewed at 4+/5 by PC Mag? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will any Commonwealth countries become republics during 2024 or 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will an album using synthetic audio be my favorite album of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• What will be the CDC’s official mortality rate of H5N1 on January 1st, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Randall Munroe (of XKCD) join Manifold before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will George Santos "find the hutzpah" to go on Dancing With The Stars before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the leading LLM at the beginning of 2026 still be subject to the reversal curse? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Canada sign the Framework Convention on AI before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI consume more than $250M of Microsoft compute in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the CPI-U show higher inflation over the course of 2025 than over 2024? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a new social media platform launched after 1/1/23 surpass 500 million active users by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 74% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• When will the top chatbot stop mentioning unimportant details from the prompt? (read description) — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will any country ban tobacco for the next generation by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Luffy leave the planet in One Piece before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will 1% of Americans believe technology is most important problem in the US before the end of 2025, according to Gallup? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the 1/1 One Ring be entered in a Competitive REL Magic event by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will I pay an income based surcharge on my PG&E bill before January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Which public figures will self-identify as "polyamorous" or "ethically non-monogamous" before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Alishba Imran become a Thiel Fellow? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Apple reintroduce the iPhone Mini before the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Harvard settle the lawsuit brought against them by Gino before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Austria be an official member of NATO by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• will the publicly disclosed xAI market cap exceed OpenAI's market cap at end of year 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Which non-US countries will Apple Card be available in on Jan 1st, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Jiri Prochazka regain the Light Heavy Weight UFC title by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will at least one child be born as a result of two people meeting at Manifest 2023, by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Kingdom Hearts 4 release before Dark Souls 4? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will I be diagnosed with autism before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will we learn by 2026 that a human had been artificially cloned as of September 2023? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Trump declare a "White History Month" in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a memecoin created by pump.fun reach 5 billion market cap by the end of 2025? (Crypto Bitcoin BTC) — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Destiny vs Shapiro rematch on Lex before 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• In January 2026, how publicly salient will AI deepfakes/media be, vs AI labor impact, vs AI catastrophic risks? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk imply before 2026 that NASA didn't land on the moon? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• At the end of 2025 will a DINO-based algorithm still be SOTA for self-supervised learning in vision? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• What will average US tariffs be at the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will "large reasoning models" significantly outperform traditional LLMs in creative writing by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Benjamin Anderson (st Louis science House) win emergent ventures by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• San Mateo Aragon High School adds pickleball as a sport through 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Gmail introduce a streaming mode like what's used by discord by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will I start HRT by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk appear on The Daily Show in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the monthly donation cap throttle donations before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the percentage of wikipedia users who donate at least one time reach 4% in the next 3 years (2026)? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Levy Rozman have a publicized coaching session with Hans Neimann before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Harvard be found liable for damages to Gino, conditional on a trial verdict being reached by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the CA FAIR plan get a bailout by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Webtoon stock (NASDAQ WBTN) be above 10 dollars at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a drug company pay >$1m in a class action suit based on their statements about their GLP1 inhibitor by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Joe Rogan interview Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vitali Klitschko, or Garry Kasparov by end 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a startup which later joins ycombinator be started by at least two people who first meet at Manifest 2023, thru '25 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• When will SpaceX first reuse Superheavy (Starship 1st stage)? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Ireland be an official member of NATO by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Google Chrome support third-party cookies by default on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the US give out a stimulus check in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will RationalWiki still exist at the beginning of 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• An Oscar winning movie features pickleball through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Aella release a AI girlfriend in collaboration with @realGeorgeHotz by 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the US experience a power grid failure before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the NYT get at least one billion dollars from Microsoft/OpenAI due to their new lawsuit, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• How many people will be in space at the start of 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will I misuse any API key entrusted to my Manifold search engine/dashboard before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Republicans pass legislation restricting access to VPNs this year? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Luddite : Industrialization :: ______ : AI (free response) — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• New president joins a picket line in 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Proud Boys, Three Percenters, or members of similar far-right groups kill at least 10 people in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Sylvan Primordial be unbanned in Commander before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a new proposed V18/9a+ outdoor boulder in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the LAX/Metro Transit Center station open in Los Angeles before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will LA Metro choose a monorail option for the Sepulveda Transit Corridor? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Neom (The Line city, Saudi Arabia) build at least 1km in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the Friend Wearable AI sell more than 100k units by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Miles Routledge aka Lord Miles is alive through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Anthropic host a Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Stanford adds pickleball as a varsity sport before 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• What will be the fate of the Apple Card… — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will BTE's secret plan work? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Francesca Gino's lawsuit go to trial before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Alex Soros and Huma Abedin be married before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will at least 16 AI x-risk researchers move to doomsday bunkers in the Southern Hemisphere by 2026-01-01? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a member of the Trump cabinet be appointed through a recess appointment in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will we discover that a previous mass shooting was an inside job carried out by a federal agency? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be another plane crash in US airspace with >= 20 victims (fatalities) in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Satellite image of Piscataway High School in NJ shows any sign of a pickleball court through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) feature natural and convenient speech-to-speech capabilities? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will California's AI training data transparency law go into effect in 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Malta be a member of NATO by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI demo a desktop or browser assistant that automates white-collar tasks before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there still be an active Russian military base in Armenia in 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a physical Sonic the Hedgehog pinball machine before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold topic pages support URL query parameters for status, sort order, etc before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the next president have an approval rating above 43% in 2025, and will they be a Democrat or a Republican? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Hasbro stock (NASDAQ:HAS) close above $70 on Jan 1st 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk still own a social media company at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Magic: The Gathering Arena introduce bots in multiplayer by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• 🏆 Will another teen break the youngest attorney record in California by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be an LLM which scores above what a human can do in 2 hours on METR's eval suite before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a widely accepted precise definition of mesaoptimizer by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Nintendo release a game with Waluigi in the title before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• As of January 1, 2026, will the following assets be held in a US national strategic crypto reserve? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• A singles tennis grand slam winner will switch to play pickleball full time professionally before 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Sovereign House continue to exist in some form by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will AI-generated pornographic video become mainstream by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will planet 9 be discovered by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• How much Balatro will I play this year? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be an avian flu pandemic before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Illumina (ILMN) go bankrupt before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will 5% of Americans believe technology is most important problem in the US before the end of 2025, according to Gallup? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Before 2026, a publicly available AI system highly reliably screens videos of chess games for touch move violations? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will someone other than Joe Biden, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris be President by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Who will be President of the United States on 1 Jan 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Tesla model 2 first release in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will any charges be brought as a result of Trump receiving or handling firearms while under federal indictment? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities] — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• If convicted, which prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sent to? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Putin ends war in Ukraine before 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• When will season 2 of Dorohedoro be available to stream in the U.S.? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• How many parameters does the new possibly-SOTA large language model, Claude 3 Opus, have? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Should Beeminder collect payment info without redirecting to a Stripe page? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will two or more national level politicians endorse Nick Fuentes' content or claim they are a fan of his by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will ARM-powered PCs make up 30% of the PC market by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will I be able to open TikTok.com from a computer located in the US on January 1st, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will 10 people comment saying they spent money on AI music before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a high profile power struggle at Inflection AI before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine become a proxy war between North Korea and South Korea by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Nick Fuentes have over 1,000,000 twitter followers by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) achieve over 50% resolution rate on the SWE-bench benchmark? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be fewer people executed (death penalty) in the US in 2025 than in 2024? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Russia break up through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will my video game be released by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Which papers will the next GPT iteration technical report cite? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Midjourney release a public API by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Which of these movies will make the biggest loss at the box office (or at least the least profit)? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) solve more than 2 of the first 5 new Project Euler problems? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Fortnite Predictions Chapter 6 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Wide acceptance of Lab Leak hypothesis for COVID only within 3 months of Fauci passing away — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will at least 100,000 Americans die of bird flu in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 70% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will I visit Minnesota by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will I have a child in the next 3 years? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a US state pass legislation making Psilocybin legal for recreational use before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in Nov. 2025 than it was in Nov. 2024 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• At the beginning of 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will at least 20 NATO members reach the 2% target for defense spending in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will The Vessel in NYC stay open for at least 6 months after the reopening? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• By 2026, at least 1 phase 3 clinical trial shows positive results with DMT or 5-MeO-DMT for a mental disorder. — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will anyone sue Manifold over "free labor" concerns before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will fintech Mercury collapse before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will top open-weight LLMs in 2025 reason opaquely? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the Norwegian government have a Minister with ~AI in the title Jan 1 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk's net worth exceed $500 billion by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• The most common data source used on Manifold for new markets changes from Wikipedia to an LLM — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Tesla produce more vehicles in 2025 than 2024? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Bloomberg terminals have a Manifold integration before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will South B street in downtown San Mateo still be pedestrian only 24 hours/day through 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2025 be in the United States? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX perform fewer launches in 2025 than 2024? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there exist a service for full-parameter fine-tuning of Llama 3.1 405B? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a new type of philosophical/conceptual treadmill besides hedonic before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will 4chan exist in 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• In what metropolitan area will Artemis live on January 1st, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will @ScottAlexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the first dynamically generated moive occur by 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will quantum computers simulate complex biological systems faster or more accurately than classical computers by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• What games will I enjoy playing with my partner? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Replit be valued at $20B or greater by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• If Trump is sentenced to jail time will the Secret Service go with him? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will two people who first meet in person at Manifest 2024 be married by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the Friend Wearable AI sell more than 10k units by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the next Catan World Championship winner be a "Euro Gamer"? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Bluesky reach 50 million users by the end of this year? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• UNEXCITEMENT ATLAS: Which US States will NOT declare a state of emergency in 2025? [ ADD STATES ] — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Top car company licenses Tesla autopilot before 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a stage performance of an UNSONG musical by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• What ways of playing Minecraft will @TobiasVyseri enjoy? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Manifold stop using AI to make my questions worse by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Lukashenko still be the President of Belarus by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Valve release a game with the number "3" in the title before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Someone credibly claims to have polygenically scored a famous person without their consent — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Which countries will make major efforts to influence the 2024 US presidential election? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will an assassination attempt be made against Javier Milei before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a deepfake video cause a major political controversy involving a head of state by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will any RationalAnimations video surpass the views of their old Conway's Game of Life one by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be a high profile power struggle at Meta before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will I reach a chess.com rating of 2600 before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will OSHA still exist in essentially its current form at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will any of the Data Colada members settle the lawsuit brought against them by Gino before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Leo J Ryan Park in Foster City adds more pickleball courts before 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Did Barack Obama Mandela serve in the IDF during the Second Intifada? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Apple announce a new AR and/or VR headset before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will any AI model be capable of involuntarily hypnotizing human beings by EoY 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Public statement that Apple owns a stake in OpenAI before EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will any social media platform surpass Facebook in terms of global active users by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• My probability in 2026 that training transformer LMs will eventually lead to inner misalignment issues — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the second half of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• US state/federal regulatory apparatus takes another action against Polymarket before January 1, 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will AVIF catch up to WebP before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Curtis Yarvin publish a new book by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will any past or present high level government official in the US join Manifold before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the Android Kindle app offer book buying before 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will any government entity in the US announce they are investigating David Sacks? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the per-capita mana supply on Manifold decrease in any month before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• What will be the outcome of the Lizzo lawsuit? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Martin Shkreli spend at least a month in jail or prison again through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the FDA change its acronym before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Ashiok, Wicked Manipulator's record be broken for most text on a recent Magic card before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a parrot explain the risk from AI before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• In how many months will the first Arcadian company or nonprofit be incorporated? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Jiankui He permanently move to the United States by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the Boring Company achieve tunneling speeds faster than that of a snail over any 1 week period before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will mechanistic interpretability have more academic impact than representation engineering by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will a drone swarm cause havoc in a major city by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Which countries will the United States be at war with by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• NCAA adds pickleball as a varsity sport before 2026 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Satellite image of San Mateo Aragon High School shows any sign of a pickleball court through 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• What will be the lowest cost per dose observed for the R21 malaria vaccine before January 1st, 2026? (currently $3.90) — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will any decabillionaire be murdered before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will David Sacks hold a U.S. Cabinet-level position (including “acting” ) in Donald Trump's administration during 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 07:59 UTC
• Will GTA VI's Metacritic Metascore be Higher than 95 after 2 weeks of the game being out? — closes 2026-01-02 09:59 UTC
• will @jim beat @bayesian in the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest? — closes 2026-01-02 10:59 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 11:00 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 11:00 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic announce a pause on large training runs for safety reasons, before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 12:00 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 12:00 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 12:00 UTC
• Will 'Beyond Good and Evil 2' release before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 12:30 UTC
• Will a new Jet Set Radio game be released before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 12:30 UTC
• Will the Nintendo Switch become the best-selling game console of all time by outselling the Playstation 2 before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 12:30 UTC
• Will the Nintendo Switch outsell the Nintendo DS before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 12:30 UTC
• Will there be a male UFC Champion from East Asia before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 12:30 UTC
• Will a new Golden Sun game be released before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 12:30 UTC
• Will an official Bloodborne port/remake/remaster be released for PC before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 12:30 UTC
• Will Rational Animations adapt another Scott Alexander post before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 12:30 UTC
• Will Starship go to the Moon before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 12:59 UTC
• Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 12:59 UTC
• Will Tyson Fury and Francis Ngannou have a rematch before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 13:29 UTC
• Will there be a new 'Wario Land' game released before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 13:29 UTC
• Will remakes of Pokémon Black and White come out before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 13:29 UTC
• Will Palworld be playable on a Nintendo console before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 13:29 UTC
• Will Luigi Mangione be pardoned before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 13:29 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will there be reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 14:00 UTC
• [Metaculus] Trump elected president -> AI model reporting requirements in place in the US at the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-02 14:00 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 14:00 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will Bud Light cease production by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 17:00 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 17:00 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases? — closes 2026-01-02 17:00 UTC
• Will Amazon's market cap be $2 trillion by 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 18:29 UTC
• Will Microsoft launch its own self driving car (Just like Google Waymo) — closes 2026-01-02 18:29 UTC
• [Metaculus] Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 19:00 UTC
• When will Dark Souls 1 Remake be announced? — closes 2026-01-02 22:59 UTC
• What month will limit orders allow you to sell shares properly at low balance? — closes 2026-01-02 22:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 22:59 UTC
• Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 22:59 UTC
• Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 22:59 UTC
• Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of 2025. — closes 2026-01-02 22:59 UTC
• Will any song on Billboard Hot 100 before 2026 be composed by AI? — closes 2026-01-02 22:59 UTC
• When will an animal get de-extinct for the first time? — closes 2026-01-02 22:59 UTC
• Will the king of Sweden abdicate the throne? — closes 2026-01-02 22:59 UTC
• Will Eliezer Yudkowsky create a tulpa/headmate or define himself as a plural system before January 1st 2026. — closes 2026-01-02 22:59 UTC
• When will brain upload be demonstrated for an animal? — closes 2026-01-02 22:59 UTC
• Will Oculus Quest 4 have eye tracking? — closes 2026-01-02 23:59 UTC
• When will the Israeli invasion of Lebanon be over? — closes 2026-01-02 23:59 UTC
• US tariffs on foreign films by EOY2025? — closes 2026-01-02 23:59 UTC
• Will England Abolish University Tuition Fees for Local and or International Students on or Before 2026? — closes 2026-01-02 23:59 UTC
• Will the Solarium have 75 books or fewer on the giveaway shelves at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 23:59 UTC
• Will a new episode of The Grand Tour be released in 2025? — closes 2026-01-02 23:59 UTC
• Will I host at least 8 Jewish dinners by December 31st, 2025 (Shabbats or Jewish holidays) — closes 2026-01-03 00:00 UTC
• GOOGL stock price higher than GOOG by 1/1/2026? — closes 2026-01-03 00:59 UTC
• Will HTMX gain significant traction before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-03 02:29 UTC
• test title change — closes 2026-01-03 04:59 UTC
• Will China invade or blockade Taiwan by the end 2025? — closes 2026-01-03 04:59 UTC
• What will be the top marginal U.S. federal individual income tax rate on January 1, 2026? — closes 2026-01-03 05:59 UTC
• Will scientists confirm a 5th force of nature before 2026? — closes 2026-01-03 05:59 UTC
• How many confirmed Mpox deaths will there be by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-03 06:59 UTC
• Will Zig codegen catch up to LLVM codegen in 4 years? — closes 2026-01-03 07:59 UTC
• Who will be the next Republican Speaker/Minority Leader after Mike Johnson? — closes 2026-01-03 07:59 UTC
• Will the new silicon valley tech city incorporate the windows background hill? — closes 2026-01-03 07:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, what will US bond yields be at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-03 07:59 UTC
• [Metaculus] On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States? — closes 2026-01-03 07:59 UTC
• Will the moon have its own time zone before 2026 — closes 2026-01-03 07:59 UTC
• Is Donald Trump more likely to win the presidential election if the US enters a recession by the end of 2024? — closes 2026-01-03 07:59 UTC
• NVIDIA's Market Cap on Jan 1, 2026, in $ Trillions? — closes 2026-01-03 07:59 UTC
• Will the One Piece manga reach over 1250 chapters? — closes 2026-01-03 12:30 UTC
• Will the One Piece manga reach over 1200 chapters? — closes 2026-01-03 12:30 UTC
• Will the One Piece manga reach over 1150 chapters? — closes 2026-01-03 12:30 UTC
• Will the record for largest sports contract be broken before 2026? — closes 2026-01-03 13:29 UTC
• Will the 1 hour 35 minute barrier be broken in the 120 Star category in Mario 64 speedrunning in 2025? — closes 2026-01-03 13:29 UTC
• Will o3.5 be released before 2026? — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• 8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• 5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape. — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• 10. The first real AI safety incident will occur. — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• 1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models. — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• 6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech. — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• Will o5 be released before 2026? — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• Will o4 be released before 2026? — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• 3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI. — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI release a model which generates images using reasoning / inference-time scaling before 2026? — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• 4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI. — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• 9. Robotaxi services will win double-digit market share in ride-hailing in at least 5 major U.S. cities. — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• Will Vladimir Putin be the leader of Russia at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• When will the first episode of the Anime: "Grand Blue Dreaming Season 2" come out? — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• 7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems. — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• 2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology. — closes 2026-01-03 22:59 UTC
• Who will be the main QB for the 2025 Cleveland Browns? — closes 2026-01-03 23:59 UTC
• Will Mark Cuban run for president before the Dallas Mavericks win the NBA Championship again? — closes 2026-01-04 04:59 UTC
• More long shot bets: How many of the 10 linked markets will resolve as expected? — closes 2026-01-04 06:59 UTC
• Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ? — closes 2026-01-04 22:59 UTC
• In a year, will we think that Thilo Mischke not hosting ttt reduced AI risk? — closes 2026-01-04 22:59 UTC
• Will Kanye West commit suicide in 2025? — closes 2026-01-04 23:59 UTC
• Will an AI-fabricated police brutality video receive major news coverage by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-05 07:59 UTC
• Which teams will make the 2026 NFL playoffs? — closes 2026-01-05 07:59 UTC
• Will @cauli still be living in Australia at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-05 19:59 UTC
• When will the live-action film for The Legend of Zelda franchise be released? — closes 2026-01-05 21:59 UTC
• Will the US impose a 10% tariff on goods from the EU before 2026? — closes 2026-01-05 22:59 UTC
• Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-05 22:59 UTC
• Will there be more than 10 000 holders on the market “AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]” by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-05 22:59 UTC
• Will the US impose a 10% tariff on goods from the UK before 2026? — closes 2026-01-05 22:59 UTC
• Will Xi Jinping be the leader of China at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-05 22:59 UTC
• Which crypto token is the best investment from Jul 24 to Jan 26? — closes 2026-01-05 23:59 UTC
• Will Luke Lamperti be announced as a rider for Soudal - Quickstep's 2026 roster? — closes 2026-01-05 23:59 UTC
• When will Brazil achieve Investment Grade status according to one of the major credit rating agencies? — closes 2026-01-06 02:59 UTC
• Elon Musk will have more children in 2025 than the number of new Tesla models released in 2025. — closes 2026-01-06 04:59 UTC
• Will the FBI arrest a suspect for the January 5, 2021 DC pipe bomb incidents before January 5, 2026? — closes 2026-01-06 04:59 UTC
• Will Frank Ocean release an album before George R R Martin publishes his next Game of Thrones sequel? — closes 2026-01-06 04:59 UTC
• Conditional on LK-99 replicating, will a RTSC be used commercially by 2026? — closes 2026-01-06 07:59 UTC
• Will Cruise re-obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-06 07:59 UTC
• Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025 — closes 2026-01-06 07:59 UTC
• If @Tumbles is late to pay back a loan, will Canada enter a recession? (2024) — closes 2026-01-06 07:59 UTC
• Will Wicked: For Good (2025) gross more domestically in 2025 than Wicked (2024) grossed domestically in 2024? — closes 2026-01-06 13:29 UTC
• Will an equity crowdfunding campaign offer refund bonuses by 2026? — closes 2026-01-06 21:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will his first year in office be 'a complete shit show'? — closes 2026-01-06 22:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2026? — closes 2026-01-06 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2026? — closes 2026-01-06 22:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released before Jan 2026? — closes 2026-01-06 22:59 UTC
• Will Trump’s approval rating be above 30 at the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-07 00:00 UTC
• Will a new ARPA-AI agency be established during the 119th Congress? — closes 2026-01-07 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a US Sovereign Wealth Fund established by the federal government by the end of the 119th congress? — closes 2026-01-07 04:59 UTC
• Will the Miami Dolphins make the playoffs in the NFL 2025-2026 season? — closes 2026-01-07 04:59 UTC
• The next season of the HBO show Euphoria will be released — closes 2026-01-07 04:59 UTC
• Will we find tree search in a vanilla transformer trained on chess games by 2026? — closes 2026-01-07 04:59 UTC
• Will at least one major player divest* fully from proprietary AI and pivot to fusion research/infrastructure by 2026? — closes 2026-01-07 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the first Cabinet member to leave in 2025? — closes 2026-01-07 04:59 UTC
• What happened during the Jeju Air flight 2216 crash? — closes 2026-01-07 04:59 UTC
• Did Imu create devil fruits? — closes 2026-01-07 05:59 UTC
• How many of the Jan 6 protestors pardoned by Trump will be arrested between market creation and 11:59EST, Jan 6, 2026? — closes 2026-01-07 07:59 UTC
• Will Hollow Knight: Silksong get an 85 or above on OpenCritic? (a website which is like metacritic) — closes 2026-01-07 07:59 UTC
• Will the price of the Mina token reach over $2 before 2026? — closes 2026-01-07 23:59 UTC
• New pandemic in 2025? — closes 2026-01-08 04:59 UTC
• Will the introduction to AI #97 match the introduction to my first AI post of 2026? — closes 2026-01-08 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the next Speaker of the House? — closes 2026-01-08 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump use the US military to assist in carrying out mass deportations in 2025 — closes 2026-01-08 04:59 UTC
• Will the US conduct any military actions inside of Mexico before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-08 04:59 UTC
• FairlyRandom testing market — closes 2026-01-08 05:59 UTC
• During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? — closes 2026-01-08 07:59 UTC
• By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024? — closes 2026-01-08 07:59 UTC
• "Sinners" nominated for Best Picture? — closes 2026-01-08 07:59 UTC
• Will Zoox obtain an Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Permit from the CA DMV in 2025 — closes 2026-01-08 07:59 UTC
• Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025? — closes 2026-01-08 07:59 UTC
• Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election, and will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? — closes 2026-01-08 23:59 UTC
• In the "Project Hail Mary" movie, will a Beatles song be played during the scene where the beetles are launched? — closes 2026-01-09 00:59 UTC
• Will Alphabet Shutter Google Keep By December 31st, 2025? — closes 2026-01-09 06:59 UTC
• If Trump is elected U.S. President in 2024, when will the Russia-Ukraine war end? — closes 2026-01-09 07:59 UTC
• What will Hollow Knight: Silksong's OpenCritic score be 2 weeks after release? — closes 2026-01-09 07:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025-26 Ashes? — closes 2026-01-09 15:59 UTC
• Will New Glenn launch a commercial payload before Starship? — closes 2026-01-09 16:59 UTC
• Will NICE recommend randomisation as standard care for any condition — closes 2026-01-09 23:59 UTC
• Is the Riemann hypothesis true, false or unprovable in ZFC? — closes 2026-01-10 07:37 UTC
• Los Angeles Fires - Coordinated Arson? — closes 2026-01-10 07:59 UTC
• Which hololive member will have the highest watch hours in 2025? — closes 2026-01-10 13:29 UTC
• Best Podcast Golden Globe—first winner? — closes 2026-01-10 20:12 UTC
• Will Manifold Introduce an Incentive for Trading on Markets with Few Traders? (Proposal in Description)? — closes 2026-01-10 22:59 UTC
• How many cars will Tesla deliver in 2025? — closes 2026-01-10 22:59 UTC
• Will the Ukrainians get the German Taurus cruise missile before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-10 22:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift make the best selling album in the US in 2025? — closes 2026-01-10 23:59 UTC
• "Orange man crazy" a better prior than "nothing ever happens" at EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-10 23:59 UTC
• When will GPT 5 be released — closes 2026-01-11 04:59 UTC
• 💀Which celebrity will be rank #1 on the DeathList 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-01-11 04:59 UTC
• How many growth/marketing pomodoros before Emile.chat crosses >=$200 monthly recurring revenue? — closes 2026-01-11 05:59 UTC
• What asset class will perform the best over the course of 2025? — closes 2026-01-11 05:59 UTC
• How high will Bolivia's 2025 annual inflation rate get? — closes 2026-01-11 05:59 UTC
• Will anyone be charged under the Logan Act by EOY 2025? — closes 2026-01-11 06:59 UTC
• How many car deliveries will Aptera Motors make by Jan 1 2026? — closes 2026-01-11 07:59 UTC
• Will Microsoft open a third party app store for iPhones in the US before 2026? — closes 2026-01-11 08:00 UTC
• Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines? — closes 2026-01-11 22:59 UTC
• Which NFL team will have the worst record in the 2025 regular season? — closes 2026-01-11 23:59 UTC
• Will Panera Bread bring back charged lemonades before 2026? — closes 2026-01-12 04:59 UTC
• Will any other American Health Insurance company executives be murdered before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-12 07:59 UTC
• Which teams will make the 2025/26 NFL playoffs? — closes 2026-01-12 07:59 UTC
• Who will win more regular season games in the 2025 NFL season? Darnold vs Vikings — closes 2026-01-12 15:59 UTC
• Will Zach Wilson start at least five regular season games in the 2025 NFL season? — closes 2026-01-12 15:59 UTC
• Will the Chiefs miss the playoffs in the 2025 NFL season? — closes 2026-01-12 15:59 UTC
• Who will win more regular season games in the 2025 NFL season? Jones vs Giants — closes 2026-01-12 15:59 UTC
• What will be the final standings in the NFC North in the 2025 Season? — closes 2026-01-12 15:59 UTC
• Will Destiny use his guitar on stream in the next 2 years? — closes 2026-01-12 22:59 UTC
• Who will start the most games for the New York Giants in the 2025 season? — closes 2026-01-12 23:59 UTC
• Which team(s) that failed to make the playoffs the previous year will make it to the 2025/26 NFL Playoffs? — closes 2026-01-13 04:59 UTC
• Will @JonathanRay surpass 0 net all-time mana profit before 2026? — closes 2026-01-13 05:59 UTC
• What will become of Luffy's hat? — closes 2026-01-13 05:59 UTC
• Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth? — closes 2026-01-13 07:59 UTC
• What books will I think are the best to recommend to people who want to improve themselves and/or their communities? — closes 2026-01-13 08:00 UTC
• Has Elon Musk’s Tesla scrapped plans to build Model 2 (low cost ~$25k car) as Reuters claims? — closes 2026-01-13 12:59 UTC
• Will Mike Vrabel lead the Patriots to a winning record in 2025? — closes 2026-01-13 15:59 UTC
• Will any medication be approved for Long Covid/PASC in any Western country before 2026? — closes 2026-01-14 22:59 UTC
• Discourse 2025: Mainstream media full-court on polyamory? — closes 2026-01-14 22:59 UTC
• Will I have held DeepMind crystal material in my hand by end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-14 23:59 UTC
• Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1? — closes 2026-01-15 04:59 UTC
• Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months? — closes 2026-01-15 07:59 UTC
• Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth? — closes 2026-01-15 07:59 UTC
• Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth? — closes 2026-01-15 07:59 UTC
• Yet another large coordinated "exploding devices" attack before 2026? — closes 2026-01-15 15:59 UTC
• Will the New York Times stop selling printed weekday editions in retail stores by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 22:59 UTC
• Will a production car achieve 0-60 mph in less than a second in 2025 or earlier? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Will SotA on PaperBench (Code-Dev) surpass 75% in 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Will 5 or more US banks fail in 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Will 9 or more US banks fail in 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Will 4 or more US banks fail in 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Will 2 or more US banks fail in 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Will 3 or more US banks fail in 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025? — closes 2026-01-15 23:59 UTC
• Joe Biden book deal in 2025? — closes 2026-01-16 04:59 UTC
• Will a Mar-a-Lago accord be announced by EOY 2026? — closes 2026-01-16 04:59 UTC
• Will NYC have Used at least 115 gallons per person per day in 2025? — closes 2026-01-16 04:59 UTC
• Will I extend my active daily streak here on manifold to 1,000 days? — closes 2026-01-16 05:59 UTC
• Will Lex be acquired by 2026? — closes 2026-01-16 06:59 UTC
• Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025? — closes 2026-01-16 06:59 UTC
• Will Ford sell more new Mustang Mach Es (electrics) in 2025 than in 2024? — closes 2026-01-16 07:59 UTC
• When will Brazil have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2025? — closes 2026-01-16 22:59 UTC
• When will Russia have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2025? — closes 2026-01-16 22:59 UTC
• In which quarter of 2025 will US egg prices peak? — closes 2026-01-17 00:00 UTC
• Will LLMs be banned at the 2026 MIT Mystery Hunt? — closes 2026-01-17 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025? — closes 2026-01-17 15:42 UTC
• Will it be exposed that Esmail Qaani is an Israeli spy, by EOY 2025 — closes 2026-01-17 21:59 UTC
• Will the country ranked #1 in The Economist’s 2025 Democracy Index have a directly elected head of state? — closes 2026-01-17 23:59 UTC
• When will One Piece conclude? — closes 2026-01-18 04:59 UTC
• What % of their deposits will the typical FTX depositor with less than $100k get back? Resolves to % — closes 2026-01-18 21:49 UTC
• Will the 2025-26 CFP be won by a conference champion? — closes 2026-01-18 23:59 UTC
• By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time? — closes 2026-01-19 23:59 UTC
• Which team will win the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff National Championship? — closes 2026-01-19 23:59 UTC
• Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy] — closes 2026-01-19 23:59 UTC
• Will Rudy Giuliani be appointed to a position in Trump's government before January 20, 2026? — closes 2026-01-20 00:00 UTC
• 🏈 2025 NCAAF: How many losses will the national champion have? — closes 2026-01-20 04:59 UTC
• I film all of 2025* at 4k — closes 2026-01-20 04:59 UTC
• How many live births will China report having in 2025? — closes 2026-01-20 13:29 UTC
• If Trump is elected President in 2024, how many states will have restricted abortion a year later? — closes 2026-01-20 15:59 UTC
• If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have an approval rating higher than 50% one year later? — closes 2026-01-20 15:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 45% after one year in office? — closes 2026-01-21 04:59 UTC
• How many entire government agencies will be eliminated by within one year of Trump taking office? — closes 2026-01-21 04:59 UTC
• Who will serve in Donald Trump's cabinet in his first year? — closes 2026-01-21 04:59 UTC
• Will Congress confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2025? — closes 2026-01-21 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump’s approval rating be higher than Biden’s after: — closes 2026-01-21 04:59 UTC
• Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump? — closes 2026-01-21 04:59 UTC
• If Donald Trump becomes the next president, what will his approval rating be a year after assuming office? — closes 2026-01-21 04:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 40% after one year in office? — closes 2026-01-21 04:59 UTC
• Which team will win the 2025/26 NCAA College Football Playoff National Championship? — closes 2026-01-21 05:00 UTC
• Will the US government crush OpenAI while Elon Musk is a government employee, in 2025? — closes 2026-01-21 07:59 UTC
• Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be open-sourced? — closes 2026-01-21 07:59 UTC
• Will Trump fire or deport more people in his first year as president? — closes 2026-01-21 21:59 UTC
• Will they get me? — closes 2026-01-21 23:59 UTC
• Will Jay Powell still be chair of the Federal Reserve on January 20th, 2026? — closes 2026-01-21 23:59 UTC
• Will Ross Ulbricht Be On The Joe Rogan Podcast Within 1 Year Of Release From Prison? — closes 2026-01-22 04:40 UTC
• MLS Season Pass <> Apple Vision Pro — closes 2026-01-22 04:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 50% after one year in office? — closes 2026-01-22 04:59 UTC
• Did Suchir Balaji (OpenAI whistleblower) commit suicide? — closes 2026-01-22 05:59 UTC
• Will Lina Kahn and the FTC win a major anti trust case against any big tech company before 2026? — closes 2026-01-22 07:59 UTC
• Will congestion pricing in NY be stopped for more than 30 days in the next year? — closes 2026-01-22 07:59 UTC
• Will Conjecture's CoEm paradigm generate more than $1 Million USD in revenue before 2026? — closes 2026-01-22 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a breakthrough communicating with animals and AI in 2025 — closes 2026-01-23 04:59 UTC
• Will donald trump survive one year as president? — closes 2026-01-23 04:59 UTC
• Sweet & Sour Showdown: Will Michigan Sweet be priced higher than Wyoming Sour crude oil on Blue Monday 2026? — closes 2026-01-23 04:59 UTC
• By what date will a model named GATO 2 or the spiritual successor to the prior GATO model be released by Deepmind? — closes 2026-01-23 13:24 UTC
• Will the US exit the WHO on January 22, 2026 — closes 2026-01-23 22:59 UTC
• Will Trump "appear in uniform within the next 12 months"? (by the end of Jan 20th, 2026) — closes 2026-01-23 22:59 UTC
• Will the Doomsday Clock be 60s (or less) to midnight by end of January 2026 — closes 2026-01-24 04:59 UTC
• How well will I (@draaglom) forecast on Metaculus in 2025? (Peer accuracy leaderboard) — closes 2026-01-24 04:59 UTC
• Will Putin die in office? — closes 2026-01-25 05:59 UTC
• Will science develop a vaccine for aging by 2030? 💉 — closes 2026-01-25 07:59 UTC
• How much will Google Trends interest in AI consciousness change from Jan '24 to Jan '26? — closes 2026-01-25 07:59 UTC
• Will any team that drafts a quarterback in the first round of the Draft make the Playoffs in 2025? — closes 2026-01-25 15:59 UTC
• Supreme Court ruling on 3,50€ file copying fee - Will B. win the Federal Administrative Court case? — closes 2026-01-25 22:59 UTC
• Elon Musk continuously Tesla CEO through January 16, 2026 market close? — closes 2026-01-27 16:59 UTC
• What time will Doomsday Clock be at in 2026? (Read the pinned comment for market rules.) — closes 2026-01-27 20:59 UTC
• Will the Doomsday Clock be forwarded or rewound in 2026? (Read the pinned comment.) — closes 2026-01-27 20:59 UTC
• TSLA close price January 16, 2026, if Musk does not remain Tesla CEO? — closes 2026-01-27 23:59 UTC
• TSLA close price January 16, 2026, if Musk remains Tesla CEO? — closes 2026-01-27 23:59 UTC
• TSLA closes at what price on January 16, 2026? — closes 2026-01-27 23:59 UTC
• Will the upcoming game Mars Attracts get a 73 or higher on Opencritic? — closes 2026-01-28 07:59 UTC
• Will Fujitora join the Straw Hats? — closes 2026-01-30 04:59 UTC
• Will disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in Cambridge MA water be higher in 2025 than 2023? — closes 2026-01-30 04:59 UTC
• Will NYC MTA Access-A-Ride Paratransit Service assist more than 1 million New Yorkers in at least one month of 2025? — closes 2026-01-30 04:59 UTC
• How many Cybertrucks will be delivered in 2025? — closes 2026-01-30 22:59 UTC
• Will Germany‘s economy (real GDP) grow in 2025? — closes 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC
• Global GDP growth rate below 2.5% in 2025 — closes 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC
• US union membership rate above 10.0% in 2025 — closes 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC
• Will I ever beat @philinesgrosserbruder twice in a row in chess again? — closes 2026-01-31 00:59 UTC
• Which second year QB will have the most regular season passing yards in the 2025 season? — closes 2026-01-31 02:07 UTC
• If Trump is elected POTUS in 2024, will he be impeached and removed from office by January 31, 2026? — closes 2026-01-31 04:59 UTC
• Will anyone default on a Mana loan in order to manipulate a Credit Default Swap? — closes 2026-01-31 09:24 UTC
• What will Syria's Economist Democracy Index be in 2025? — closes 2026-01-31 14:59 UTC
• Will India institutionalise same-sex marriage or civil unions before 2026? — closes 2026-01-31 15:59 UTC
• Who will become General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2026? — closes 2026-01-31 15:59 UTC
• Will someone kill an AI researcher to save the world by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-31 21:59 UTC
• Is Nicotine Good for You? — closes 2026-01-31 22:59 UTC
• If the U.S. stops sending military assistance to Ukraine, will there be a ceasefire by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Khamzat Chimaev be UFC Champion in 2025? — closes 2026-01-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Iñigo Errejón spend a night in jail by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-01-31 22:59 UTC
• Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? — closes 2026-01-31 22:59 UTC
• When will first 2025 Dutch government cyberbreach happen? — closes 2026-01-31 22:59 UTC
• This is a Market just for my personal use and will change as I wish. II — closes 2026-01-31 22:59 UTC
• Will the first AI generated video to reach 20M views on YouTube be a music video? — closes 2026-01-31 22:59 UTC
• Will Norway reach its goal of 100 percent zero-emission car sales by 2025? — closes 2026-01-31 22:59 UTC
• CECOT murders US detainees before 2026? — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the Sealand Oil Platform still be standing by February 2026? — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• Credit Default Swap Market 2025 — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will be elected as the new portuguese president in January 2026? — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the UK enter a technical recession in 2025? — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the resolution of "Does trump have any clue what he’s doing with his trade war ?" be controversial? — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• Will a Manifold subscription include advanced trading features? — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• Will @spiderduckpig profit growth rate be linear, exponential, or logarithmic — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Artemis 3 not be delayed, and be successful? — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• Who will be the next Archbishop of Canterbury? — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• Bitcoin reaches a new record high of $69,000 - will it halve or double in value first? — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• F1 - Will Christian Horner outlast Max Verstappen at Red Bull Racing? — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• State Of The Art AI systems will be easily jailbroken to do illegal or dangerous outputs in Jan 2026 — closes 2026-01-31 23:59 UTC
• Will "The Summoned Heroine's Prediction Markets Kee..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Great Data Integration Schlep" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My Interview With Cade Metz on His Reporting ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Anthropic's Certificate of Incorporation" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Why I'm doing PauseAI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Reconsider the anti-cavity bacteria if you ar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Without fundamental advances, misalignment an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Pareto Best and the Curse of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What good is G-factor if you're dumped in the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike resign from OpenAI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Formal verification, heuristic explanations a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Understanding Shapley Values with Venn Diagrams" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A Selection of Randomly Selected SAE Features" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Big Nonprofits Post" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The impossible problem of due process" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Apologizing is a Core Rationalist Skill" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Hire (or become) a Thinking Assistant / Body ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Overcoming Bias Anthology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Anthropic release Claude 3, claims >GPT-4 Per..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will ""AI achieves silver-medal standard solving In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Takes on "Alignment Faking in Large Language ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "I turned decision theory problems into memes ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Read the Roon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Best Lay Argument is not a Simple English..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Standard Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Investigating the Chart of the Century: Why i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My Number 1 Epistemology Book Recommendation:..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Sorry for the downtime, looks like we got DDosd" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "o1: A Technical Primer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Using axis lines for good or evil" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "If you weren't such an idiot..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Deep Honesty" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Pareto Best and the Curse of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Ironing Out the Squiggles" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Every "Every Bay Area House Party" Bay Area H..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Introducing AI Lab Watch" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "AGI Safety and Alignment at Google DeepMind: ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "And All the Shoggoths Merely Players" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will ""No-one in my org puts money in their pension"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My Clients, The Liars" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Please support this blog (with money)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "You are not too "irrational" to know your pre..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Vernor Vinge, who coined the term "Technologi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What do coherence arguments actually prove ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Daniel Kahneman has died" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "New LessWrong review winner UI ("The LeastWro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Failures in Kindness" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My theory of change for working in AI healthtech" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Passages I Highlighted in The Letters of J.R...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "AIs Will Increasingly Attempt Shenanigans" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "On Devin" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Gradient Routing: Masking Gradients to Locali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "By default, capital will matter more than eve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will ""How could I have thought that faster?"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "DeepSeek beats o1-preview on math, ties on co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Worst Form Of Government (Except For Ever..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What o3 Becomes by 2028" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Skills I'd like my collaborators to have" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The case for training frontier AIs on Sumeria..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Carl Sagan, nuking the moon, and not nuking t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Me, Myself, and AI: the Situational Awareness..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Some (problematic) aesthetics of what constit..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Sycophancy to subterfuge: Investigating rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "You should go to ML conferences" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Why I take short timelines seriously" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Poker is a bad game for teaching epistemics. ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Believing In" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Christiano" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My experience using financial commitments to ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Advice for Activists from the History of Envi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Live Theory Part 0: Taking Intelligence Seriously" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A Three-Layer Model of LLM Psychology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What convincing warning shot could help preve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Why I'm Moving from Mechanistic to Prosaic In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Which skincare products are evidence-based?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Open Source Sparse Autoencoders for all Resid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Plan - 2024 Update" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "things that confuse me about the current AI m..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Notifications Received in 30 Minutes of Class" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Current safety training techniques do not ful..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The case for more ambitious language model evals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "EIS XIII: Reflections on Anthropic’s SAE Rese..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "ASIs will not leave just a little sunlight fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "“Alignment Faking” frame is somewhat fake" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Truthseeking is the ground in which other pri..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Near-mode thinking on AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "You can remove GPT2’s LayerNorm by fine-tunin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Why Would Belief-States Have A Fractal Struct..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "the case for CoT unfaithfulness is overstated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Boycott OpenAI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Local Interaction Basis: Identifying Comp..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Skills from a year of Purposeful Rationality ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Key takeaways from our EA and alignment resea..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Communications in Hard Mode (My new job at MIRI)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "How I Learned To Stop Trusting Prediction Mar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Sch..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "How to replicate and extend our alignment fak..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Ablations for “Frontier Models are Capable of..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Attitudes about Applied Rationality" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Overview of strong human intelligence amplifi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Introducing Alignment Stress-Testing at Anthropic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "In favour of exploring nagging doubts about x..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "LLM Applications I Want To See" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Should CA, TX, OK, and LA merge into a giant ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Making a conservative case for alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The case for unlearning that removes informat..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A Rocket–Interpretability Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Community Notes by X" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Sam Altman’s Chip Ambitions Undercut OpenAI’s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Thoughts on seed oil" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Dragon Agnosticism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What’s up with LLMs representing XORs of arbi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Rationality Research Report: Towards 10x OODA..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "80,000 hours should remove OpenAI from the Jo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Toward a Broader Definition of Adverse Selection" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Field of AI Alignment: A Postmortem, and ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Stanislav Petrov Quarterly Performance Review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Towards more cooperative AI safety strategies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Getting 50% (SoTA) on ARC-AGI with GPT-4o" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Subskills of "Listening to Wisdom"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "You don't know how bad most things are nor pr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "0. CAST: Corrigibility as Singular Target" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will ""It's a 10% chance which I did 10 times, so i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Momentum of Light in Glass" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A Dozen Ways to Get More Dakka" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Liability regimes for AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Jaan Tallinn's 2023 Philanthropy Overview" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "I would have shit in that alley, too" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "You can, in fact, bamboozle an unaligned AI i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Danger, AI Scientist, Danger" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Advice for journalists" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My takes on SB-1047" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Efficient Dictionary Learning with Switch Spa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Dyslucksia" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "AI companies aren't really using external eva..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Information: OpenAI shows 'Strawberry' to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Simple versus Short: Higher-order degeneracy ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A basic systems architecture for AI agents th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Talent Needs of Technical AI Safety Teams" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Which things were you surprised to learn are ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Discriminating Behaviorally Identical Classif..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Parable Of The Fallen Pendulum - Part 1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Processor clock speeds are not how fast AIs think" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Laziness death spirals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "o3" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A List of 45+ Mech Interp Project Ideas from ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Timaeus's First Four Months" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "' petertodd'’s last stand: The final days of ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Cryonics is free" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Counting arguments provide no evidence for AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Scissors Statements for President?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Introduction to French AI Policy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Being nicer than Clippy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "DeepMind's "​​Frontier Safety Framework" is w..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel Ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Information vs Assurance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "This is already your second chance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Online Sports Gambling Experiment Has Failed" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "BIG-Bench Canary Contamination in GPT-4" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Struggling like a Shadowmoth" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "I got dysentery so you don’t have to" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Language Models Model Us" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Repeal the Jones Act of 1920" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The o1 System Card Is Not About o1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Universal Basic Income and Poverty" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Response to nostalgebraist: proudly waving my..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A Shutdown Problem Proposal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Non-Disparagement Canaries for OpenAI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Most smart and skilled people are outside of ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Transformers Represent Belief State Geometry ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Do you believe in hundred dollar bills lying ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Masterpiece" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "General Thoughts on Secular Solstice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Story of "I Have Been A Good Bing"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "When Is Insurance Worth It?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Superbabies: Putting The Pieces Together" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "LLMs for Alignment Research: a safety priority?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The hostile telepaths problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What TMS is like" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "WTH is Cerebrolysin, actually?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Limitations on Formal Verification for AI Safety" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "An Extremely Opinionated Annotated List of My..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Pay Risk Evaluators in Cash, Not Equity" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "SAE reconstruction errors are (empirically) p..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My simple AGI investment & insurance strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Please stop using mediocre AI art in your posts" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Things I've Grieved" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Two easy things that maybe Just Work to impro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Daniel Dennett has died (1942-2024)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Checklist: What Succeeding at AI Safety W..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "On green" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "ChatGPT can learn indirect control" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Why comparative advantage does not help horses" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Connecting the Dots: LLMs can Infer & Verbali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A shortcoming of concrete demonstrations as A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Pantheon Interface" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Explore More: A Bag of Tricks to Keep Your Li..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Express interest in an "FHI of the West"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "OpenAI: Fallout" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "You should consider applying to PhDs (soon!)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Minority Coalition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Dream Machine" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "FHI (Future of Humanity Institute) has shut d..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Toward A Mathematical Framework for Computati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Dangers of Mirrored Life" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Brute Force Manufactured Consensus is Hiding ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Refactoring cryonics as structural brain pres..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "OpenAI o1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Incredible Fentanyl-Detecting Machine" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Awakening" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Dreams of AI alignment: The danger of suggest..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What’s up with LLMs representing XORs of arbi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My hour of memoryless lucidity" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Raising children on the eve of AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Simple probes can catch sleeper agents" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "How I started believing religion might actual..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Humming is not a free $100 bill" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Would catching your AIs trying to escape conv..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "China Hawks are Manufacturing an AI Arms Race" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Hierarchical Agency: A Missing Piece in AI Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Momentum of Light in Glass" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Thoughts on seed oil" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Why I don't believe in the placebo effect" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "introduction to cancer vaccines" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Boycott OpenAI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Hopium Wars: the AGI Entente Delusion" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Summoned Heroine's Prediction Markets Kee..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Investigating the Chart of the Century: Why i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Processor clock speeds are not how fast AIs think" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Stanislav Petrov Quarterly Performance Review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Apologizing is a Core Rationalist Skill" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Safety isn’t safety without a social model (o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "things that confuse me about the current AI m..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Some (problematic) aesthetics of what constit..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Skills from a year of Purposeful Rationality ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "LLM Applications I Want To See" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A basic systems architecture for AI agents th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "China Hawks are Manufacturing an AI Arms Race" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Why I’m not a Bayesian" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Making a conservative case for alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Do you believe in hundred dollar bills lying ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Failures in Kindness" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Survival without dignity" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Believing In" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The case for more ambitious language model evals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Pearly Gates" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "On green" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "2024 Unofficial LessWrong Census/Survey" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Open Source Sparse Autoencoders for all Resid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Shallow review of technical AI safety, 2024" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Christiano" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Leaving MIRI, Seeking Funding" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Struggling like a Shadowmoth" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A Three-Layer Model of LLM Psychology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Median Researcher Problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Transformer Circuit Faithfulness Metrics Are ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The impossible problem of due process" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Overcoming Bias Anthology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Laziness death spirals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Value Claims (In Particular) Are Usually Bullshit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Local Interaction Basis: Identifying Comp..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What's Going on With OpenAI's Messaging?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "2023 Survey Results" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Parasites (not a metaphor)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The nihilism of NeurIPS" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "An even deeper atheism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The "Think It Faster" Exercise" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Incredible Fentanyl-Detecting Machine" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Response to Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Fields that I reference when thinking about A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What convincing warning shot could help preve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "OpenAI's CBRN tests seem unclear" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Should CA, TX, OK, and LA merge into a giant ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Pareto Best and the Curse of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What Goes Without Saying" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Please support this blog (with money)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Hire (or become) a Thinking Assistant / Body ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will ""Slow" takeoff is a terrible term for "maybe ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Arithmetic is an underrated world-modeling te..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Notifications Received in 30 Minutes of Class" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Compendium, A full argument about extinct..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Refusal in LLMs is mediated by a single direction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Liability regimes for AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will ""It's a 10% chance which I did 10 times, so i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "(The) Lightcone is nothing without its people..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Announcing ILIAD — Theoretical AI Alignment ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What o3 Becomes by 2028" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "You can, in fact, bamboozle an unaligned AI i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Vernor Vinge, who coined the term "Technologi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Skills I'd like my collaborators to have" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Advice for Activists from the History of Envi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Daniel Kahneman has died" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "What TMS is like" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "OpenAI Email Archives (from Musk v. Altman)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The ‘strong’ feature hypothesis could be wrong" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Humming is not a free $100 bill" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "AI catastrophes and rogue deployments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Social status part 1/2: negotiations over obj..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The hostile telepaths problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A primer on the current state of longevity re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "OpenAI: Fallout" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Formal verification, heuristic explanations a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Alignment Faking in Large Language Models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Recommendation: reports on the search for mis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "DeepSeek beats o1-preview on math, ties on co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Announcing turntrout.com, my new digital home" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Repeal the Jones Act of 1920" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "MIRI 2024 Mission and Strategy Update" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My AGI safety research—2024 review, ’25 plans" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "You can remove GPT2’s LayerNorm by fine-tunin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Christiano" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "A breakdown of AI capability levels focused o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Introducing Open Asteroid Impact" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "o1 is a bad idea" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Circuits in Superposition: Compressing many s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Would catching your AIs trying to escape conv..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Advice for journalists" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Reliable Sources: The Story of David Gerard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "And All the Shoggoths Merely Players" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The case for unlearning that removes informat..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Talent Needs of Technical AI Safety Teams" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Scaling and evaluating sparse autoencoders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "My theory of change for working in AI healthtech" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Communications in Hard Mode (My new job at MIRI)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Community Notes by X" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Why I funded PIBBSS" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Why I'm Moving from Mechanistic to Prosaic In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "The Parable Of The Fallen Pendulum - Part 1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "When Is Insurance Worth It?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Introducing Alignment Stress-Testing at Anthropic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "BIG-Bench Canary Contamination in GPT-4" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Review: Planecrash" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "Loving a world you don’t trust" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will "How I got 3.2 million Youtube views without m..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? — closes 2026-02-01 00:00 UTC
• Will Spain approve a tax on properties bought by non-EU residents during the current Sánchez legislature? — closes 2026-02-01 01:00 UTC
• What time at midnight will the Doomsday clock will be in 2026. — closes 2026-02-01 02:32 UTC
• Will there be more deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in 2025 than in 2024? — closes 2026-02-01 03:59 UTC
• Ozempic will NOT be the leading GLP-1 agonist by total $ US sales by December 31, 2025 — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• Will AI finally generate an acceptable image of "Peter Thiel making out with, cuddling with, and incubating an egg together with a gay penguin" by 2025? — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• What will the main commercial uses be for Sora? [Free response] — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Claude beat Pokemon Red before I make it to gold in League of Legend? — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• Before 2026, will Manifold innovate its way to a market correctly pricing a 1-in-100,000 random chance of Yes as 0.001%? — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Vivi travel with the Straw Hats if she reunites with them? — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• Next US federal impeachment? — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024? — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the 12-month inflation rate announced in January 2026 be lower or equal than 3.0% — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• When will waymo first be available in New York City — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Safe Bet Act 2024 pass? — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• 🪀What Toys will make it into the Toy Hall of Fame in 2026? — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2023? — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a tie score in the 2025/26 NFL season? — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• After the Israel-Hamas war is over, would the average Israeli believe it was a mistake? — closes 2026-02-01 04:59 UTC
• Will my question creator weighted rating fall below 4⭐ for a week straight before February 2026? — closes 2026-02-01 05:59 UTC
• Is "Patriot Front" a Federally Funded Extremist Group (FFEG)? — closes 2026-02-01 05:59 UTC
• will i find a partner in the next two years — closes 2026-02-01 05:59 UTC
• Will this home have a zestimate valuation of over 950k by January 1st 2026? Link below — closes 2026-02-01 05:59 UTC
• In the MMA fight between Jake Shields and Mack Beggs, who will win? — closes 2026-02-01 05:59 UTC
• Will the US Civilian labor force participation rate in January 2026 be above that in January 2022? — closes 2026-02-01 06:59 UTC
• Which 2025 fantasy anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList? — closes 2026-02-01 06:59 UTC
• Which 2025 romance anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList? — closes 2026-02-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success? — closes 2026-02-01 06:59 UTC
• Which 2025 drama anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList? — closes 2026-02-01 06:59 UTC
• Which 2025 comedy anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList? — closes 2026-02-01 06:59 UTC
• Which 2025 anime movie will have the highest score on AniList? — closes 2026-02-01 06:59 UTC
• Which 2025 sci-fi anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList? — closes 2026-02-01 06:59 UTC
• Which 2025 action anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList? — closes 2026-02-01 06:59 UTC
• When will the US tariffs on China first drop to ≤50% again for a month? — closes 2026-02-01 07:51 UTC
• Will Optimus be used on the Optimus assembly line before the end of 2025? — closes 2026-02-01 07:59 UTC
• Top 5 most useful tests for AGI — closes 2026-02-01 07:59 UTC
• Which consequences will Donald Trump face? — closes 2026-02-01 07:59 UTC
• Will the next Republican Speaker of the House (after Mike Johnson) be a white male? — closes 2026-02-01 07:59 UTC
• What will be the next change to my employment status? — closes 2026-02-01 07:59 UTC
• When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses? — closes 2026-02-01 07:59 UTC
• Will 2025 be the warmest year on record? (fussy multi-dataset criteria) — closes 2026-02-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Llama 4 be the best LLM in the chatbot arena? — closes 2026-02-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom before 2026? [Free Response - Unlinked] — closes 2026-02-01 07:59 UTC
• Which presidents will become more highly rated by presidential historians between 2021 and 2025? — closes 2026-02-01 07:59 UTC
• What will the homicide rate be in Mexico for 2024? — closes 2026-02-01 07:59 UTC
• What Will Happen In or before January 2026 [ADD RESPONSE] — closes 2026-02-01 18:29 UTC
• 2026 Australian Open - Men’s singles winner? — closes 2026-02-01 19:59 UTC
• Will Trump actually establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in his first year? — closes 2026-02-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Tesla deliver more than 50000 Model 2s in 2025? — closes 2026-02-01 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a dam collapse in the US before the end of 2025 with a fatality rate of 10 or more? — closes 2026-02-01 22:59 UTC
• When will human-scale centrifugal artificial gravity be first tested in space? — closes 2026-02-01 22:59 UTC
• Resolves as half the fractional change in CO2 emissions between 2030 and 2023 [added liquidity] — closes 2026-02-01 23:59 UTC
• Is it room temperature superconductivity this time? - Graphite room temp superconductivity. — closes 2026-02-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Keir Starmer's net favourability rating be higher at the end of 2025 than it was at the end of 2024? — closes 2026-02-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Gavin Baker's forecast that it'll be abjectly humiliating for everyone who is a Tesla FSD skeptic hold? — closes 2026-02-02 02:59 UTC
• Will xQc beat Forsen's 15:28 record in under 500 hours? — closes 2026-02-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in the U.S. exceed 2% for any quarter before 2026? — closes 2026-02-02 04:59 UTC
• Net sympathy for Israelis vs Palestinians, 2026? — closes 2026-02-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Remco Evenepoel be on the Soudal Quick-Step roster in 2026? — closes 2026-02-02 04:59 UTC
• Before Feb 2026, will a transformer based reasoning model >1800 elo be able to explain 3+ chess lines at any position? — closes 2026-02-02 06:59 UTC
• Will DJB win his FOIA lawsuit against NIST? — closes 2026-02-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Max Verstappen be a Red Bull driver in the first race of the 2026 season? — closes 2026-02-02 07:59 UTC
• Will Nintendo re-release the F-Zero anime in any form in the United States before February 2026? — closes 2026-02-02 07:59 UTC
• A born woman (xx) starts an MLB game — closes 2026-02-02 07:59 UTC
• Major revelation about Biden's health, negative, before 2026 — closes 2026-02-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026? — closes 2026-02-02 07:59 UTC
• Will there be any national border changes in North America before February 2026? — closes 2026-02-02 07:59 UTC
• Major revelation about Trump's health, negative, before 2026 — closes 2026-02-02 07:59 UTC
• DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026 — closes 2026-02-02 07:59 UTC
• Will the "USA become(s) a province of Pakistan" market resolve normally? — closes 2026-02-02 07:59 UTC
• Do data engineering jobs disappear due to the developments in AI in near future ? — closes 2026-02-02 20:59 UTC
• Will Nvidia NVDA end 2/2 at or above $222 USD per share? — closes 2026-02-03 04:59 UTC
• Long shot(ish) bets: How many of these 13 markets will resolve as expected? — closes 2026-02-03 06:59 UTC
• Will pop-up shops become the dominant hub of offline commerce by 2026? — closes 2026-02-04 04:59 UTC
• Will the GPT4+code-interpreter+search score > 1350 on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard? — closes 2026-02-04 04:59 UTC
• Will there be over 30 of McDonald's new spin-off coffee chain CosMc's on February 3rd 2026? — closes 2026-02-04 07:59 UTC
• Will the Nintendo Switch 2 sell more units in Japan than in the Americas in 2025? — closes 2026-02-04 23:59 UTC
• Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year? — closes 2026-02-06 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the MVP of the 2025 NFL season? — closes 2026-02-06 04:59 UTC
• Will Trump halve the trade deficit in his first year? — closes 2026-02-06 04:59 UTC
• Will xAI ship an AI model similar to Deep Research before February 4, 2026? — closes 2026-02-06 04:59 UTC
• Will « Apple Vision » be a failure? — closes 2026-02-06 22:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released before Feb 2026? — closes 2026-02-06 22:59 UTC
• Cerebras multimarket (all judged separately) — closes 2026-02-07 07:59 UTC
• Will ROC (Russian Olympic Committee) participate in the 2026 Winter Olympic Games? — closes 2026-02-07 07:59 UTC
• Will there be double the units sold of the Apple Vision Air than the Apple Vision Pro by 2026? — closes 2026-02-08 04:59 UTC
• Which one will be released first - GPT-5 or GTA-6? — closes 2026-02-08 18:29 UTC
• Will [AFC Team] beat the [NFC Team]? 🏈 Super Bowl LX — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LX? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl LX? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Which team will win Super Bowl LX? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will any post-season NFL game be rescheduled or cancelled? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will any stadium decibel record be broken during an NFL playoff game this season? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl LX? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will anyone get frostbite at an NFL playoff game this season? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• taylor swift attends NFL game in 2025 season — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will the next Super Bowl winning QB be from Texas? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will there be a special guest at the Super Bowl halftime show? 🏈 Super Bowl LX — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LX? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Who will perform at the Super Bowl LX halftime show? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• What color will the Gatorade shower be at Super Bowl LX? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl LX? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Super Bowl LX Prop Bets 🏈 (LIVE!) February 8, 2026 — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift be in attendance at the first regular season Kansas City Chiefs game? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl LX? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will the Chiefs score more than 30 points in a game this season? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Who will win Puppy Bowl XXII? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will any Wild Card team play in either NFL conference championship game? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will Taylor Swift be in attendance at Super Bowl LX? — closes 2026-02-09 04:59 UTC
• Will my spouse match Urology in the 2026 Residency match? — closes 2026-02-09 07:59 UTC
• Will a New York sports team win a championship by the end of the 2025 sports season? — closes 2026-02-10 04:59 UTC
• Does manifold prefer Separate Peace or Movable Feast? — closes 2026-02-10 04:59 UTC
• What will the Uruguayan government decide to do to Graf Spee Nazi eagle? — closes 2026-02-10 15:00 UTC
• Who will win the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? — closes 2026-02-10 23:59 UTC
• Who will win Superbowl LX? — closes 2026-02-11 06:08 UTC
• Which NFL team will be the final one to remain undefeated in the NFL 2025 season? — closes 2026-02-12 18:30 UTC
• Will Roberto Campos Neto be elected president of Brazil or be the runner-up during the next presidential election? — closes 2026-02-13 02:59 UTC
• Which college will get 3rd place on the 2025 Putnam exam? — closes 2026-02-13 04:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 NFL Season NFC Championship Game? — closes 2026-02-13 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2025 NFL Season AFC Championship Game? — closes 2026-02-13 23:59 UTC
• Which five NFL teams will finish in the bottom five of the league in the 2025 season? — closes 2026-02-14 00:00 UTC
• Which five teams will finish the 2025 season ranked 6-10 in the NFL draft? — closes 2026-02-14 00:00 UTC
• Which rookies will play in the 2025 NFL Pro Bowl Games? — closes 2026-02-14 04:59 UTC
• Will Holotile Floor has sold over 1,000 units commercially by the end of 2026? — closes 2026-02-14 04:59 UTC
• On which days in 2026 will Donald Trump be alive? — closes 2026-02-14 18:00 UTC
• Number of major sports teams that abandon Kiss Cam by Valentine's Day, 2026 — closes 2026-02-15 01:00 UTC
• Will Unemployment in the US Reach 5.5% in 2025? — closes 2026-02-15 04:59 UTC
• Will Unemployment in the US Reach 6.5% in 2025? — closes 2026-02-15 04:59 UTC
• Will any establishment ban Limitless (Rewind) Pendants? — closes 2026-02-15 07:59 UTC
• Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026? — closes 2026-02-15 07:59 UTC
• Black national anthem performed at super bowl lx? — closes 2026-02-16 04:59 UTC
• Will the panorama experience of the Apple Vision Pro be available for the 2026 Super Bowl? — closes 2026-02-16 04:59 UTC
• Conditional on Trump imposing large tariffs in his first year, will the CPI-U for January 2026 be ≥332? — closes 2026-02-16 05:59 UTC
• Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2025? — closes 2026-02-16 06:59 UTC
• Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-02-01? — closes 2026-02-16 06:59 UTC
• 🏈Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LX in 2026? — closes 2026-02-18 04:59 UTC
• Will one of the teams that left the race in 2025 start at Etoile de Besseges in 2026? — closes 2026-02-18 05:59 UTC
• Will ziz be released within the next year — closes 2026-02-18 07:59 UTC
• Will China in 2025 consume over 4500 Mt of coal? — closes 2026-02-18 22:59 UTC
• Are libertarianism and autistic traits correlated? — closes 2026-02-18 23:59 UTC
• Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles within two years? — closes 2026-02-19 22:59 UTC
• When will skywatcher.ai announce their first successful UFO retrieval? — closes 2026-02-20 03:59 UTC
• Which country's corruption will worsen the most in 2025, according to the Corruptions Perception Index? — closes 2026-02-20 23:59 UTC
• Which country's corruption will improve the most in 2025, according to the Corruptions Perception Index? — closes 2026-02-20 23:59 UTC
• Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when US has Woman president? — closes 2026-02-21 05:59 UTC
• F1 driver lineup in 2026 — closes 2026-02-21 07:59 UTC
• Did Microsoft build a Majorana qubit? — closes 2026-02-21 23:59 UTC
• What will happen in the 2026 winter olympics — closes 2026-02-22 23:59 UTC
• Which country or countries will be awarded the 2036 Summer Olympics — closes 2026-02-23 04:59 UTC
• What will be the result of the Detroit Lions' 2025-26 season? — closes 2026-02-23 04:59 UTC
• Danantara SOEs outperform IDX Composite by >5% within 12 months of Feb 24, 2025 consolidation — closes 2026-02-24 00:00 UTC
• Will Z-Library be online in the Internet after two years? — closes 2026-02-24 22:59 UTC
• 🥇Which ten countries will win the most Gold medals at the 2024 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? — closes 2026-02-25 04:59 UTC
• 🥇Which three countries will win the most Gold medals at the 2024 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? — closes 2026-02-25 04:59 UTC
• Which of the following will be sold off before parent company reaches 10T? — closes 2026-02-25 05:59 UTC
• Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029? — closes 2026-02-25 07:59 UTC
• If Trump/sitting President refuses Supreme Court order, what happens next? — closes 2026-02-25 22:59 UTC
• How will the lawsuit accusing Anna’s Archive of hacking WorldCat end? — closes 2026-02-25 22:59 UTC
• When will Rubin come out? — closes 2026-02-27 04:59 UTC
• Will someone be held accountable for Sydney's asbestos contamination crisis? — closes 2026-02-27 12:59 UTC
• On which real-world place will the next main series Pokémon region be based? — closes 2026-02-27 22:59 UTC
• Who will be the 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? — closes 2026-02-27 23:59 UTC
• Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of rape or human trafficking in the UK? — closes 2026-02-27 23:59 UTC
• Who will be the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year? — closes 2026-02-27 23:59 UTC
• Who will be the 2025 NFL MVP? — closes 2026-02-27 23:59 UTC
• Who will be the 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year? — closes 2026-02-27 23:59 UTC
• Which NFL team will have the best regular season record in 2025? — closes 2026-02-27 23:59 UTC
• Who will be the 2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year? — closes 2026-02-27 23:59 UTC
• Who will be the 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year? — closes 2026-02-27 23:59 UTC
• Will Sanremo 2026 be broadcast by RAI? — closes 2026-02-28 00:00 UTC
• Who will be the 2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? — closes 2026-02-28 00:00 UTC
• NFL 2025 - Which position will win Offensive Rookie of the Year? — closes 2026-02-28 02:42 UTC
• US financial and economic situation at end of 2025 — closes 2026-02-28 04:59 UTC
• Will Tesla officially release a car that costs $30,999 USD or less by the end of February 2026? — closes 2026-02-28 04:59 UTC
• What will happen with HMYS's ❗Ṁ1.96 BILLION❗ debt to Levi Finkelstein? — closes 2026-02-28 07:59 UTC
• Will a new interstellar object be observed inside the solar system in 2025 ? — closes 2026-02-28 12:59 UTC
• EU spends more on Russian fuel than Ukraine aid in 2025 — closes 2026-02-28 12:59 UTC
• NFL 2025 - Which position will win Defensive Rookie of the Year? — closes 2026-02-28 15:59 UTC
• Will I be stopped at the border the next time I enter the US if... — closes 2026-02-28 18:29 UTC
• How high will the industry average german THG quota payout tonne of CO2 be in 2025? — closes 2026-02-28 22:59 UTC
• Is this either Luffy or Quagmire? (Fortnite trailer speculation) — closes 2026-03-01 04:59 UTC
• 🏈Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LX in 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Congress introduce a bill focused on internet piracy by the end of February 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will be the next #1 Manifold trader to hit zero? — closes 2026-03-01 04:59 UTC
• Will adept.ai (or some other agent AI) be able to create an account and batch-write questions from a .txt file onto manifold.markets by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 04:59 UTC
• Who will win Album of the Year at the 2026 Grammy Awards? — closes 2026-03-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Sonja Lang publish a new book by the end of February 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 04:59 UTC
• Will Donald Trump spend any amount of time in Jail over his most recent indictment ? — closes 2026-03-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the German economy achieve 0.5% real GDP growth in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 05:59 UTC
• Will a team that goes 2-2 in group advance to the single elimination round of the NBA In-Season Tournament by 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Patrick Mahomes 3rd child be blonde (his first 2 are)? — closes 2026-03-01 05:59 UTC
• Will number of physician assisted suicides in Canada be above 15,500 in 2024? — closes 2026-03-01 05:59 UTC
• Will Barack Obama be nominated for a Golden Globe or Oscar in the next three years [2024, 2025, and 2026]? — closes 2026-03-01 07:59 UTC
• Will I get into a relationship by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 07:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2026 NFL Super Bowl? — closes 2026-03-01 07:59 UTC
• Will a bill proposing discontinuance of the use of VMT be introduced in the CA legislature on or before March 2, 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 07:59 UTC
• How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects? — closes 2026-03-01 07:59 UTC
• Will my ephemeral tattoo disappear within 3 years? — closes 2026-03-01 07:59 UTC
• Will Talia find a husband-worthy guy through her date-me survey in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 07:59 UTC
• Will it replicate? Genetic and Functional Drivers of Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma (Cell, 2017, by March 2026) — closes 2026-03-01 11:00 UTC
• When will we first see a Raptor V3 (or other**) engine fly on a Starship? — closes 2026-03-01 12:59 UTC
• Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 200M views before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 100M views before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 50M views before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 10M views before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 20M views before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will we get AGI before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will Norway reach 95% electric vehicle sales in new passenger car before 2026 ? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the UK have a larger GDP than France in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will we get fusion reactors before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will we discover alien life before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will we get a cure for cancer before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will a NATO member send troops to Ukraine before 2026? — closes 2026-03-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the United Kingdom become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Venezuela become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Poland become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Israel become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will South Africa become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Canada become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will India become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Argentina become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will South Korea become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Which regions will become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Mexico become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Ukraine become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• [M100 sub] Will there be a well-reviewed video game with LLM-based NPC dialogue by 2026 (no mods)? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Turkey become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will France become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Germany become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Indonesia become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Japan become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will Pakistan become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will China become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the world become more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-01 23:59 UTC
• Will the UK Bank Rate fall below 4% before March 3rd, 2026? — closes 2026-03-02 00:00 UTC
• Formula 1/Andretti-GM outcome — closes 2026-03-02 02:59 UTC
• Will the EU force Ukraine to make concessions? — closes 2026-03-02 02:59 UTC
• Will the Court of International Trade issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting the Liberation Day Tariffs? — closes 2026-03-02 03:20 UTC
• Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs? — closes 2026-03-02 03:34 UTC
• Will there be at least 800 people living in Dildo by next census? — closes 2026-03-02 03:59 UTC
• Will the winter flu shot be hard to obtain in the US in 2025/26? — closes 2026-03-02 04:59 UTC
• How much solar power will the world install in 2025? — closes 2026-03-02 04:59 UTC
• How many Atlantic hurricane names will be retired for the 2025 season? — closes 2026-03-02 04:59 UTC
• When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition? — closes 2026-03-02 04:59 UTC
• Will Tom Pidcock race in the 2025-2026 UCI Cyclocross season? — closes 2026-03-02 05:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI have $2 billion annual revenue in 2025? — closes 2026-03-02 05:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI inference costs fall by 100x over the next 18 months? — closes 2026-03-02 06:59 UTC
• What levels of atmospheric co2 will we reach by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-03-02 07:59 UTC
• Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-03-02 23:59 UTC
• Will the identity of the March 2, 2025 crypto long bet whale be revealed? — closes 2026-03-02 23:59 UTC
• Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards? — closes 2026-03-03 04:59 UTC
• How many units will the Nintendo Switch 2 sell in 2025? — closes 2026-03-03 13:29 UTC
• Is there a "pivotal weak act"? — closes 2026-03-05 04:59 UTC
• Will the percentage of Americans who are religiously unaffiliated be greater in 2026 than it was in 2023? — closes 2026-03-05 04:59 UTC
• Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? — closes 2026-03-05 04:59 UTC
• Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown before 2026? — closes 2026-03-05 22:59 UTC
• Will the Phase 2 Trials of Lepodisiran be a Success? — closes 2026-03-05 22:59 UTC
• Will the Phase 3 Trials of Olpasiran be a Success? — closes 2026-03-05 22:59 UTC
• Will GitHub implement a blanket ban on voice cloning projects before 2026? — closes 2026-03-05 22:59 UTC
• Does gpt2-chatbot have a search mechanism? — closes 2026-03-05 22:59 UTC
• Will it be possible for users to invest in manifold questions before 2026? — closes 2026-03-05 22:59 UTC
• Will Peter Dutton remain leader of the Liberal Party of Australia for longer than Scott Morrison was able to? — closes 2026-03-05 23:59 UTC
• What will be true about the next Oscars Academy Award Best Actress winner in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-03-06 04:59 UTC
• State of the Union Address 2026 — closes 2026-03-06 04:59 UTC
• Will US public opinion shift towards Israel during 2025 (according to gallop)? — closes 2026-03-06 12:59 UTC
• Can my 55-Year-Old Father, who Has a Severe Spinal Injury, Walk Within 12 Months? — closes 2026-03-06 23:59 UTC
• Will Alan Greenspan become a centenarian? — closes 2026-03-07 04:59 UTC
• Which movie from 2025 will win the Oscar for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? — closes 2026-03-07 04:59 UTC
• Which current Straw Hat crew member will be the NEXT to demonstrate their FIRST time using base armament haki? — closes 2026-03-07 04:59 UTC
• AI voice chat servers before 2026? — closes 2026-03-08 22:59 UTC
• How many seats will be won by EKRE (Conservative People's Party of Estonia) in the next Estonian parliamentary election? — closes 2026-03-08 23:59 UTC
• How many seats will be won by Estonian Reform Party in the next Estonian parliamentary election? — closes 2026-03-08 23:59 UTC
• What movie will win Best Picture? 🏆|🎬 2026 Oscars — closes 2026-03-09 03:59 UTC
• What will be true about the next Oscars Academy Award Best Actor winner in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-03-09 03:59 UTC
• In exactly two years, will two shares of Microsoft (MSFT) be worth more than one share of Nvidia (NVDA)? — closes 2026-03-10 03:59 UTC
• In exactly two years (Mar 2026), will two shares of Alphabet/Google GOOG be worth more than one share of Microsoft MSFT? — closes 2026-03-10 03:59 UTC
• In exactly two years, will two shares of Apple (AAPL) be worth more than one share of Microsoft (MSFT)? — closes 2026-03-10 03:59 UTC
• In exactly two years, will two shares of Applied Micro Devices (AMD) be worth more than one share of Microsoft (MSFT)? — closes 2026-03-10 03:59 UTC
• Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)? — closes 2026-03-11 03:59 UTC
• Which (user-submitted) book(s) will I like (enough to add to my recommendations list)? — closes 2026-03-11 23:59 UTC
• Is Marshall D Teach Multiple People? — closes 2026-03-12 03:59 UTC
• Will there be a liquidity event for WeFunder investors before March 2026? — closes 2026-03-12 03:59 UTC
• Will my phone's headphone jack stop working within a year of purchase? — closes 2026-03-13 03:59 UTC
• Who in California will see the first new plate starting with A on a Tesla — closes 2026-03-13 06:59 UTC
• How many Head Coaches will leave their jobs in the 2025 NFL Season? — closes 2026-03-13 23:59 UTC
• Will the new CEO of 3M (Bill Brown) still be the CEO 2 years later? — closes 2026-03-14 03:59 UTC
• Will Frozen Pokemon Stadium be used as a stage for Melee at Genesis 12? — closes 2026-03-14 03:59 UTC
• will >=1/2 of people in a representative study be found to have no or minimal internal monologue? — closes 2026-03-14 06:59 UTC
• Will pre-order cancellations save the life of Angus the cow? — closes 2026-03-14 06:59 UTC
• When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video? — closes 2026-03-14 22:59 UTC
• Will I attend MIT in Fall of 2026? — closes 2026-03-14 22:59 UTC
• Which films will be nominated for an Oscar at the 98th Academy Awards (2026)? — closes 2026-03-15 02:59 UTC
• Will a human set foot on the moon again via Artemis 3 or another mission before Pi Day 2026? (March 14th) — closes 2026-03-15 03:59 UTC
• Will the US maternal mortality rate increase from 2024 to 2025? — closes 2026-03-15 03:59 UTC
• What percentage of new vehicle registrations in Canada will be plug in electric by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-03-16 02:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI release o3 >1 week before GPT-5? — closes 2026-03-16 06:59 UTC
• Will the 2026 Commonwealth Games go ahead? — closes 2026-03-16 12:00 UTC
• If Trump wins, will there be more sanctuary cities in the USA when the Midterm elections end? — closes 2026-03-17 03:59 UTC
• This market resolves NO in a year. — closes 2026-03-17 18:40 UTC
• What issues should Robert Neuman focus on while running for governor of Oregon? — closes 2026-03-18 06:59 UTC
• On the 12th anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea, will the Russia-Ukraine war still be ongoing? — closes 2026-03-19 06:59 UTC
• Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when we know what causes Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS)? — closes 2026-03-20 04:59 UTC
• Which broken things will be fixed, around San Mateo, within two months of entry? — closes 2026-03-20 06:59 UTC
• Avatar: Fire and Ash worldwide box office? — closes 2026-03-20 20:59 UTC
• This market resolves NO in a year. — closes 2026-03-20 21:29 UTC
• Where will Canada rank in the 2026 world happiness report? — closes 2026-03-20 22:59 UTC
• Will Elon Musk visit China before March 21 2026? — closes 2026-03-20 23:59 UTC
• Fewer US programming jobs 1 year from March 13, 2025? [Tegmark / Ng bet] — closes 2026-03-20 23:59 UTC
• 🪦Who will be featured in the Oscars In Memoriam segment in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-03-21 02:30 UTC
• What will be true about the Oscar Best Picture winner at the 98th Academy Awards? (Films from 2025) [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-03-21 03:59 UTC
• Will @Prismatic#8234 be alive on March 21, 2026? — closes 2026-03-21 23:59 UTC
• will proof team top 11 at mc state — closes 2026-03-21 23:59 UTC
• Will Slavoj Zizek live to be 77? — closes 2026-03-22 03:59 UTC
• How many copies will the best selling Nintendo Switch 2 game sell in 2025? — closes 2026-03-24 13:29 UTC
• Will Canada's population decline? — closes 2026-03-26 03:59 UTC
• This time next year, will Aarush have a girlfriend — closes 2026-03-26 04:08 UTC
• Will the Julia programming language be in top 15 TIOBE Index by 2026? — closes 2026-03-26 23:59 UTC
• United States Recession by End of Q4 2025? — closes 2026-03-27 10:59 UTC
• Will the current world record time for holding breath underwater be broken within 5 years of being set? — closes 2026-03-28 03:59 UTC
• Is quantum mechanics computable? — closes 2026-03-28 06:59 UTC
• What things will I conclude are causing my major health symptoms? — closes 2026-03-28 23:22 UTC
• Will the new Columbia Interim President Claire Shipman last one year? — closes 2026-03-29 06:25 UTC
• Will Lance Stroll remain in F1 for 2026? — closes 2026-03-30 23:59 UTC
• Will SBF be vindicated? — closes 2026-03-31 02:59 UTC
• How many American children will be named "Luigi" in 2025? — closes 2026-03-31 06:59 UTC
• In 3 years time, will I view my decision to partake in the ### capital raise a wise decision? — closes 2026-03-31 12:59 UTC
• Which party will supply the Premier of South Australia following the next state election? — closes 2026-03-31 12:59 UTC
• Highest-grossing movie worldwide of 2025? — closes 2026-03-31 20:59 UTC
• Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2025? — closes 2026-03-31 21:59 UTC
• Will Music Streaming be replaced by a new thing by 2025? — closes 2026-03-31 22:00 UTC
• Which country will be the largest arms importer in the world in 2025? — closes 2026-03-31 22:59 UTC
• Starship milestone dates megamarket — closes 2026-03-31 22:59 UTC
• Which country will be the 2nd largest arms exporter in the world in 2025? — closes 2026-03-31 22:59 UTC
• Will any scenes of The White Lotus season 4 be set at a Bilderberg Conference (or similar) event? — closes 2026-03-31 22:59 UTC
• Tesla completes 100,000+ rideshare rides per week before April 2026? — closes 2026-03-31 22:59 UTC
• The poodle was one of the AKC's top 5 most popular dog breeds in 2021-2024. Will it still be for 2025? — closes 2026-03-31 22:59 UTC
• Will GPT-5 be released before March 31st, 2026? — closes 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC
• In which quarters of 2025 will US GDP contract? (3rd estimate) — closes 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC
• Will Lesswrong get fewer visits in March 2026 than in March 2023? — closes 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC
• Will the MLB change the official rules in order to limit or ban the "torpedo bat" by opening day 2026? — closes 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC
• Conditional on moving to [city], what is P(my friend has a primary partner in March 2026)? — closes 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC
• China, Japan, South Korea enter free trade agreement — closes 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC
• Open Conflict in Iran by April 2026? — closes 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC
• What will Ernie run in the mile, part 3, April 2026 — closes 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC
• What will AI score on TheAgentCompany benchmark in early 2026? — closes 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC
• Brazil more authoritarian in 2025? — closes 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC
• Which Boston restaurant(s) will get at least 1 Michelin Star by the end of March 2026? — closes 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC
• Where will I live at the start of April 2026? — closes 2026-04-01 00:00 UTC
• Musk and Trump no longer besties by Q2 2026? — closes 2026-04-01 00:59 UTC
• Will União Brasil have at least two ministerial positions in Brazilian government on March 31st, 2026? — closes 2026-04-01 02:59 UTC
• Will Republicanos have at least two ministerial positions in Brazilian government on March 31st, 2026? — closes 2026-04-01 02:59 UTC
• Will there be a government shutdown before April 2026? — closes 2026-04-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the blockade on Gaza end before 2026? — closes 2026-04-01 03:59 UTC
• Will China's economy enter a recession by 2025? — closes 2026-04-01 03:59 UTC
• Who will drive for Red Bull Racing in the opening GP of 2026? — closes 2026-04-01 03:59 UTC
• Will global carbon emissions from all sources peak in or by 2025? — closes 2026-04-01 03:59 UTC
• When will TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) be renegotiated and extended? — closes 2026-04-01 03:59 UTC
• Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of March 2026? — closes 2026-04-01 03:59 UTC
• Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2025 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2026) — closes 2026-04-01 03:59 UTC
• Will I make MOP in 2026? — closes 2026-04-01 04:59 UTC
• Which drivers will drive for Cadillac at the start of its inaugural 2026 F1 season? — closes 2026-04-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the majority of top 100 US universities not accept the SAT/ACT for the 2025-2026 academic year? — closes 2026-04-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the avatar movies involve programming Pandora — closes 2026-04-01 06:59 UTC
• Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth) — closes 2026-04-01 06:59 UTC
• Who will win the next EGOT? 🏆🏆🏆🏆 — closes 2026-04-01 06:59 UTC
• 2025 Salaries by Occupation — closes 2026-04-01 06:59 UTC
• OpenAI 2025 Revenue — closes 2026-04-01 06:59 UTC
• Is the theory of quantum immortality true? — closes 2026-04-01 11:21 UTC
• Which countries will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup from AFC? — closes 2026-04-01 12:59 UTC
• Which countries will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup from UEFA? — closes 2026-04-01 12:59 UTC
• Which countries will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup from CONMEBOL? — closes 2026-04-01 12:59 UTC
• Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025? — closes 2026-04-01 15:59 UTC
• When will Valve announce a stand-alone VR headset? — closes 2026-04-01 21:59 UTC
• Will Viktor Orban remain Hungary's prime minister after the 2026 elections? — closes 2026-04-01 21:59 UTC
• What will Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) decide to do regarding its cash position [$157.24 B] until EOY 2025? — closes 2026-04-01 21:59 UTC
• Next Fed chair to have a degree in economics? — closes 2026-04-01 22:59 UTC
• Will measles become endemic in the U.S. due to the current Texas outbreak? — closes 2026-04-01 22:59 UTC
• Will total US trade in goods with Greenland be higher in 2025 than in 2024? — closes 2026-04-01 22:59 UTC
• Will the US’s public debt exceed 125% of its GDP by Q4 2025? — closes 2026-04-01 22:59 UTC
• What will Harvard's antisemitism ranking be in April 2026? — closes 2026-04-01 23:59 UTC
• What season will ABS (automatic ball-strike system) be incorporated into a full MLB (Major League Baseball) season? — closes 2026-04-02 03:59 UTC
• Will federal law ban individuals from mining or prospecting for gold in Canada by April 2026? — closes 2026-04-02 03:59 UTC
• Who will win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? — closes 2026-04-02 03:59 UTC
• How much will NYC's congestion pricing raise in 2025? — closes 2026-04-02 03:59 UTC
• Will I make the USAMO in the 2025-2026 season? — closes 2026-04-02 03:59 UTC
• Will federal law ban individuals from mining or prospecting for gold in the US by April 2026? — closes 2026-04-02 03:59 UTC
• When will Season 2 of "Fallout" premiere? — closes 2026-04-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Oscar xor I promote to USACO Plat in the 2025-26 season? — closes 2026-04-02 03:59 UTC
• By March 2026, will 3+ prominent US politicians advocate for banning open-weight AI models? — closes 2026-04-02 06:59 UTC
• Will ChatGPT make a profit after all markets have resolved? — closes 2026-04-02 06:59 UTC
• Will India extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh by EoY 2026? — closes 2026-04-02 06:59 UTC
• Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026? — closes 2026-04-02 06:59 UTC
• Trump impose large tariffs in first year? — closes 2026-04-02 06:59 UTC
• Will US tariffs be higher in 2025 than 2024? — closes 2026-04-03 05:59 UTC
• Will US tariffs go up in 2025 iff Trump wins? (Up if Trump wins, or down if not.) — closes 2026-04-03 05:59 UTC
• Will I regret leaving Manifold? — closes 2026-04-03 06:59 UTC
• Which of these mainstream artists (or bands) will credit an AI in a song release? (Kanye ft. Suno, or Drake ft. ChatGPT) — closes 2026-04-04 13:30 UTC
• Will @Tumbles place a bet before Easter 2026? [read description] — closes 2026-04-05 04:59 UTC
• what is my favorite subject — closes 2026-04-05 08:02 UTC
• Will Joseph return before Season 16 of Jetlag? — closes 2026-04-05 15:59 UTC
• Will the UK £100k 'tax trap' be scrapped by the 2026 Tax year? — closes 2026-04-05 23:59 UTC
• Who is Satoshi Nakamoto — closes 2026-04-06 06:59 UTC
• In a year, will I be pleased I moved out of Seattle? — closes 2026-04-06 21:32 UTC
• Florida Gators reach Final Four in 2026? — closes 2026-04-06 22:59 UTC
• 🏀 Which team will win the 2026 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament (March Madness)? — closes 2026-04-06 23:59 UTC
• Will DOGE find something on government computers that leads to an indictment? — closes 2026-04-07 21:59 UTC
• What will happen to this market? [Add responses] — closes 2026-04-08 06:59 UTC
• Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score? — closes 2026-04-08 14:15 UTC
• Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the best performing left wing candidate in presidential election 2027 ? — closes 2026-04-09 03:59 UTC
• Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026? — closes 2026-04-09 18:29 UTC
• Will the US win the war against the Houthis in a year? (Read description) — closes 2026-04-10 04:02 UTC
• Is a state actor behind the XZ backdoor? — closes 2026-04-10 21:59 UTC
• Will the Super Mario Bros 2 movie get 70% critics score or higher on RT? — closes 2026-04-10 22:16 UTC
• Will MLB adopt a 'golden at-bat' rule before 2026? — closes 2026-04-11 06:59 UTC
• Post-mortem revelations: will damning new evidence be revealed in the OJ Simpson case? — closes 2026-04-11 06:59 UTC
• In one year from now, will Manifold think Trump's March-April tariff shenanigans were good for America/Americans? — closes 2026-04-12 08:36 UTC
• How many Atlantic hurricane names will be retired for the 2025 season? — closes 2026-04-12 22:59 UTC
• Will I make MOP 2026? — closes 2026-04-12 22:59 UTC
• Golf: Who will win the 2026 Masters Tournament? — closes 2026-04-13 23:59 UTC
• Where will cycling fans in the USA be able to watch the 2026 Tour of Flanders? — closes 2026-04-15 22:59 UTC
• Will the IRS free file alternative (Direct File) be publicly available for filing 2025 federal taxes? — closes 2026-04-16 03:59 UTC
• Will the Aikido MLB model be adapted by Silver Bulletin by April 2026? — closes 2026-04-16 03:59 UTC
• If America and China were racing horses which would your bet on in this current environment? — closes 2026-04-17 05:54 UTC
• Will Jim Tressel run for governor of Ohio in 2026? — closes 2026-04-18 03:59 UTC
• Many US student visas revoked next academic year? — closes 2026-04-18 04:43 UTC
• Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella start dating during the next 3yrs? — closes 2026-04-18 13:59 UTC
• Who will win the Amstel Gold Race Ladies Edition (Women) 2026? — closes 2026-04-18 22:59 UTC
• Who will win the Amstel Gold Race (Men) 2026? — closes 2026-04-18 22:59 UTC
• Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket — closes 2026-04-19 05:59 UTC
• Will someone be slapped at the 2026 Oscars? — closes 2026-04-20 06:59 UTC
• Is Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome Caused by an Overstimulation of the CB1 Receptors? — closes 2026-04-20 21:20 UTC
• Will Dronabinol prove effective for CHS after initial success? — closes 2026-04-20 21:20 UTC
• axusus (Andrew Xu) makes MOP 2026? — closes 2026-04-20 22:59 UTC
• Elon's Department of Government Efficiency creates a leaderboard for the "most insanely dumb spending of tax dollars" — closes 2026-04-21 04:59 UTC
• Will Cannibis be federally legalized in America by 2026? — closes 2026-04-21 05:59 UTC
• If I take the GMAT Focus in the next year, what will I score? — closes 2026-04-23 21:04 UTC
• How does The Pivot effect the the interest rate until...? — closes 2026-04-23 21:59 UTC
• Will my Nucleus Genomics DNA test reveal me to be above 5% jewish? — closes 2026-04-24 23:20 UTC
• Will Amit have visible abs by April 25, 2026? — closes 2026-04-26 00:00 UTC
• Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years? — closes 2026-04-26 23:59 UTC
• Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years? — closes 2026-04-26 23:59 UTC
• Which team will make the first pick in the *2026* NFL Draft? — closes 2026-04-27 16:59 UTC
• In hindsight, will my husband moving to San Francisco and coming home on the weekends be a mistake? — closes 2026-04-27 18:04 UTC
• Will David Sinclair be regularly taking a SGLT2 inhibitor (canagliflozin, empagliflozin) by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-04-28 06:59 UTC
• Will Amy Li (https://twitter.com/amyli0) from TOPS/TKS win an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-04-28 06:59 UTC
• Will Laura Gao (lauragao.ca) win an emergent ventures grant by the end of 2025? — closes 2026-04-28 06:59 UTC
• Will I reach a 2-year Manifold streak? — closes 2026-04-28 12:16 UTC
• How many days until Manifold iOS app supports Dark Mode? — closes 2026-04-28 13:59 UTC
• Will Mel Kiper appear on ESPN NFL Draft coverage in 2026? — closes 2026-04-29 23:59 UTC
• Anthropic 2025 Revenue — closes 2026-04-29 23:59 UTC
• Will Chris Evans appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"? — closes 2026-04-30 11:00 UTC
• Will Chris Hemsworth appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"? — closes 2026-04-30 11:00 UTC
• Will Robert Downey Jr. appear in Avengers: Secret Wars? — closes 2026-04-30 11:00 UTC
• In the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary Election, who will be running for prime minister? — closes 2026-04-30 21:59 UTC
• Will WW3 happen before GTA6? — closes 2026-04-30 22:00 UTC
• Will Labour's planned inheritance tax on UK farms over £1m be scrapped before April 2026? — closes 2026-04-30 22:59 UTC
• Which teams will make it to the 2026 NBA Playoffs? — closes 2026-04-30 22:59 UTC
• How autonomous will AI be in February 2026, per METR? — closes 2026-04-30 22:59 UTC
• By how much will dollar sales of plant-based meats increase over 2025? — closes 2026-04-30 22:59 UTC
• Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2026? — closes 2026-04-30 23:59 UTC
• Shedeur Sanders drafted before May 1st? — closes 2026-04-30 23:59 UTC
• Who will win the ACF Nationals Collegiate Quizbowl Championship 2026? — closes 2026-04-30 23:59 UTC
• Richard Yang sells out to computer science at MIT by end of April 2026? — closes 2026-04-30 23:59 UTC
• Will Giannis Antetokounmpo stay with Milwaukee Bucks for the 2025-26 season? — closes 2026-05-01 00:00 UTC
• Will the champions of Super Bowl LX visit the White House after their win? — closes 2026-05-01 03:59 UTC
• Will Cody Rhodes compete in either main event match at Wrestlemania 42? — closes 2026-05-01 04:59 UTC
• Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along? — closes 2026-05-01 05:59 UTC
• Will San Francisco have a retail vacancy rate lower than 4.5% in Q1 2026? — closes 2026-05-01 06:59 UTC
• Will annual transaction volume in GP-led PE secondaries be greater than LP-led in FY 2025? — closes 2026-05-01 06:59 UTC
• Will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50% in 2025? — closes 2026-05-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Union Square in San Francisco have a retail direct vacancy rate lower than 13% in Q1 2026? — closes 2026-05-01 06:59 UTC
• If Trump wins, will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50%? — closes 2026-05-01 06:59 UTC
• Which Medal I get in 2026 USAMO — closes 2026-05-01 06:59 UTC
• Will Andrew Garfield appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"? — closes 2026-05-01 11:00 UTC
• Will Ryan Reynolds appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"? — closes 2026-05-01 11:00 UTC
• Will Hugh Jackman appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"? — closes 2026-05-01 11:00 UTC
• Will Tobey Maguire appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"? — closes 2026-05-01 12:00 UTC
• Will a body of water or waterway suffer an oil spill of more than 10 000 tonnes during 2025? — closes 2026-05-01 20:59 UTC
• Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2025? — closes 2026-05-01 21:59 UTC
• 💿Who will be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] — closes 2026-05-01 22:59 UTC
• highest total pr at nats 2026 — closes 2026-05-01 22:59 UTC
• Will more than 200,000 US truck drivers lose their jobs by 2026? — closes 2026-05-01 22:59 UTC
• What will be my employment status in May 2026? — closes 2026-05-01 23:59 UTC
• Who will be the primary antagonist of Avengers 5? — closes 2026-05-02 03:59 UTC
• But seriously, is @LexFridman the real Lex Fridman? — closes 2026-05-02 03:59 UTC
• Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has X Views" video have more than 100M views on May 1st 2026? — closes 2026-05-02 03:59 UTC
• Will I make IMO any year — closes 2026-05-02 03:59 UTC
• Will there be 10% fewer lawyers in May 2025 (compared to May 2023)? — closes 2026-05-02 04:59 UTC
• Will the H-1B visa cap increase by at least 50% or be removed before Fiscal Year 2027? — closes 2026-05-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in EU on May 1 2026? — closes 2026-05-02 06:59 UTC
• Will Q Burdette play in Survivor 50 — closes 2026-05-02 06:59 UTC
• Canada accept EU, Japan, or Korea car safety standards? — closes 2026-05-02 11:56 UTC
• How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last? — closes 2026-05-02 13:42 UTC
• Will zero trust networking be considered less secure in the tech industry? — closes 2026-05-02 18:45 UTC
• Will there be 5 or more scorigamis in the 2025-2026 NFL season and Super Bowl? — closes 2026-05-04 03:59 UTC
• Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? — closes 2026-05-04 13:00 UTC
• How many professional connections will I make before I find a full-time job? — closes 2026-05-05 06:38 UTC
• How many days until I find a full-time job? — closes 2026-05-05 06:59 UTC
• Public coup attempt against a South American government? — closes 2026-05-06 14:10 UTC
• How many Reform councillors will have left the Party by the May 2026 elections. — closes 2026-05-06 21:00 UTC
• Scottish Parliament: Will there be an Extraordinary General Election called before the next ordinary general election? — closes 2026-05-06 22:59 UTC
• Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2026? (May 5) — closes 2026-05-06 23:59 UTC
• Will Hamas still be in power in Gaza on Cinco de Mayo 2026? — closes 2026-05-07 00:00 UTC
• Will the Scottish Labour Party be the second largest party in Holyrood after the next election? — closes 2026-05-07 22:59 UTC
• How many MSPs will the Scottish Greens get at the next Scottish Parliament election? — closes 2026-05-07 22:59 UTC
• Will Trump say something negative about Pope Leo XIV before May 8 2026? — closes 2026-05-07 23:59 UTC
• Will JD Vance say something negative about Pope Leo XIV before May 8 2026? — closes 2026-05-07 23:59 UTC
• Will the horse that wins the Kentucky Derby 2026 have a three syllable or longer name? — closes 2026-05-08 03:59 UTC
• Will Costa Rica legalize recreational marijuana by 2026? — closes 2026-05-08 15:59 UTC
• Will my software engineering job change significantly in the next year? — closes 2026-05-08 17:38 UTC
• Will Sir David Attenborough reach 100 years old? — closes 2026-05-08 22:59 UTC
• Will @amitiscool repays his loan amounts in full by the end of the loan term? — closes 2026-05-08 22:59 UTC
• Will Sir David Attenborough (British broadcaster, biologist, historian and author) live to 100 years old? — closes 2026-05-08 22:59 UTC
• Will Content writers regain say despite ChatGPT? — closes 2026-05-09 02:40 UTC
• What is the national treasure of Mary Geoise that Doflamingo mentioned? — closes 2026-05-09 04:59 UTC
• Will Radiohead Release A 10th Studio Album Before the 10 Year Anniversary of A Moon Shaped Pool? — closes 2026-05-09 05:59 UTC
• Date of the next Canadian Federal Election — closes 2026-05-09 14:33 UTC
• College Board Website crash when releasing scores? — closes 2026-05-10 21:58 UTC
• GTA 6 released before GPT 6? — closes 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
• Who Will Win 2026 MSNCT? — closes 2026-05-10 22:59 UTC
• will I vibe with a community found through this market within a year? — closes 2026-05-12 19:08 UTC
• Will Marjorie Taylor Greene have a heart attack before the end of May 12th 2026? — closes 2026-05-12 23:59 UTC
• Will spy be worth more than $436 on May 12 2026? — closes 2026-05-13 05:59 UTC
• In which MIT residence will I live on May 13, 2026? — closes 2026-05-14 06:59 UTC
• How many copies of Yudkowsky and Soares' book will be sold in the first year, worldwide? — closes 2026-05-14 18:27 UTC
• Will the horse that wins the Kentucky Derby 2026 have a four syllable or longer name? — closes 2026-05-14 18:59 UTC
• Will WASD movement come to Summoner's Rift? — closes 2026-05-14 22:57 UTC
• When will GPT5 be announced? — closes 2026-05-15 03:59 UTC
• How many Golden Strawberries will I have in Celeste this time next year? — closes 2026-05-15 13:59 UTC
• Will Jerome Powell leave his role before the end of his term? — closes 2026-05-16 06:59 UTC
• Where will Austria hold Eurovision 2026? — closes 2026-05-16 22:59 UTC
• How many copies of Yudkowsky and Soares' book will be sold in the first year, worldwide? (Compressed range) — closes 2026-05-17 00:37 UTC
• Has Dream's career peaked like SunnyV2 is predicting? (Same or less Youtube Subs a year from now?) — closes 2026-05-18 03:59 UTC